ReachTEL has produced another lineball result on two-party preferred for the Seven Network, which stays at 50-50 after moving from 52-48 in Labor’s favour the week before. However, the poll offers some encouragement for the Coalition in having them up and Labor down on the primary vote for the second week in a row, and the two-party result would have rounded to 52-48 in their favour if 2013 election preference flows were applied, as ReachTEL did until quite recently. Labor was able to retain parity in the headline result through a still greater flow of respondent-allocated minor party and independent preferences, which already looked stronger than plausible.
Labor did particularly poorly this week (and to a lesser extent last week) on the forced response follow-up question for the undecided, on which they failed to crack 20%. With the result of the follow-up question integrated into the total, the primary votes are 42.7% for the Coalition (up 1.2%), 33.2% for Labor (down 1.7%), 9.9% for the Greens (down 0.2%) and 4.5% for the Nick Xenophon Team (down 0.5%). On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull’s combined very good and good rating is up from 26.3% to 28.3%, and poor plus very poor is down from 40.8% to 37.4%. Shorten is down on both measures, from 29.0% to 27.5% on the former and 39.6% to 38.6% on the latter, and Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is effectively unchanged, down from 55.6-44.4 to 55.4-44.6. The automated phone poll was conducted last night from a sample of 2175, which is on the low side by ReachTEL’s standards.
Of perhaps even greater interest than the national result is the regular weekly supplementary marginal seat poll, which credits the Andrea Broadfoot of the Nick Xenophon Team with a 54-46 two-party lead over Liberal member Rowan Ramsay in the electorate of Grey, which covers South Australia’s “iron triangle” of Whyalla, Port Augusta and Port Pirie, together with the state’s remote areas. Inclusive of the forced preference results, the primary votes are Liberal 39.4%, Nick Xenophon Team 32.7%, Labor 14.5% and Greens 5.5%, with around three-quarters of preferences flowing to Broadfoot. The poll was conducted last night from a sample of 665.
UPDATE: BludgerTrack updated with the ReachTEL result below. As BludgerTrack is going off 2013 election preferences, it’s treating this poll as being close to 52-48 in the Coalition’s favour, and there has accordingly been a significant shift in that direction on two-party preferred. However, it’s only yielded one extra seat on the seat projection because of some fairly substantial changes in the state-level results. This is because I’ve only just now added the state results for the last two ReachTEL polls, because their new practice of reporting undecided results presented an accounting difficulty that I’ve only now attended to. The inclusion of these numbers has makes little difference in New South Wales, pares the Coalition back in Queensland, and inflates them in the other four states. In seat terms, this knocks three off their tally in Queensland, and adds two in Western Australia (corrected what looked like an excessive result there earlier) and one each in Victoria and Tasmania.
“brothel” case, not “brother” case.
Ahhh PB double entendres beat RGR and labor v greens flame wars any day
The Liberal candidate was asked how his business was going in Frankston.Its up and down he replied.
It would be worth checking the law also to see whether the Liberal Party will still be entitled to public funding in respect of any votes polled by their (allegedly former) candidate in Calwell.
I rather suspect that if they are, they would be inclined to take the money anyway, hoping that nobody would notice. It’s the Parakeelia approach.
Socrates, good point. Immigration and trade get all the attention in the Brexit debate but the larger problems are the job-destroying fiscal policies exhorted by EU technocrats and the undemocratic character of the EU’s design.
Funny thing about sex scandals…they can be quite politically deadly at times. The Profumo scadal in the UK effectively caused the Conservatives to be thrown out and it was at least 2 or 3 elections before they got back in again. Of course, the sickening part is the high moral ground the right wing religious lot in the LNP take but can’t find it in themselves to disown their own as it were. A case of “To forgive, Divine” – To err Human”. Meanwhile the likes of Slipper, Thompson (can never remember the spelling of this) Julia Gillard and the like were all kind of tainted in the eyes of these conservative hypocrites. It is no small surprise the likes of the IPA thinks prison terms for white collar crime are too harsh. After all they say, it is just an oversight from persons with impeccable credentials. Alan Bond for $2.4 billion anyone?
BK, I had the “pleasure” of working with Jamie Briggs a few years ago now (or at least I was working, can’t really call what he did work), he is still the least pleasant person I have ever worked with.
If I had a choice to turf either Briggs or Pyne the choice would be very easy to make
Defending the former Liberal candidate for Calwell, a Liberal party spokesperson said compared to the incompetent Labor candidate, Mr Min-Chiang Hsu could actually organise a root in a brothel
Except for this:
Looks to me like a reaction to news that they had already done so. Thus my question about actual evidence of such a deal.
maXXXXXandivote
Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 4:59 pm
with all of these sex scandals its obvious the Libs need a root and branch review of their candidate selection procedures
——
Good one
On NXT preferences the bollocks claims that Labor will Preference Pistoffer Pine et al over NXT is laughable- Even the Oz newspaper zealots are claiming X has offered a NXT-ALP preference deal re Hindmarsh Mayo Sturt and Barker which the ALP are “considering” now nominations and senate ticket places are sorted– more bollocks….Hang on kids, the last three weeks are going to get bumpy.
carey moore @ #559 Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 5:20 pm
Socrates got it wrong as Ratsak said nothing of the sort.
Ratsak hd wondered how many might not follow an ALP HTV card preferencing NXT.
Thanks for the high quality jokes.
ratsak @ #543 Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 4:51 pm
Hyperbole.
Briggs is despised.
I wonder what the male to female representation is on PB.
SirGit
A friend of one of my children was at school with Briggs and said he was objectionable there as well.
Tricot Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 5:17 pm
Funny thing about sex scandals…they can be quite politically deadly at times. The Profumo scadal in the UK effectively caused the Conservatives to be thrown out and it was at least 2 or 3 elections before they got back in again.
******************************************************************
Tricot, is THIS the woman who it was all about ????????
Former model Christine Keeler, 71, is unrecognisable as she pulls shopping trolley 50 years after Profumo affair
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2401524/Former-model-Christine-Keeler-71-unrecognisable-50-years-Profumo-affair.html#ixzz4BFn3G6UC
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Pedant
Brothers in brothels??
What’s that i here you say, about the ins and outs of what happens at the brothel
Ok enough of the tawdry and sordid sophistry regarding the Lib candidate…I am a long time reader (I guess lurker) of the blog without dipping my toe in the water too many times. So I will just throw in my two drachmas worth about the forthcoming election.
Despite the optimism of my fellow travellers on here, I just don’t see the mood for change in the electorate. From my reading of entrails and assorted tea leaves the Liberals will be returned with about 10-12 majority. Of course, very happy to be wrong but given a few years of observing elections, I’d say Labor have too steep a mountain to climb.
CTar1 @ 5.29: My autocorrect seems to have a prudish streak.
I’m trying to remember if there’s previously been a brothel owner elected to an Australian Parliament.
Tricot
The smell of Suez was on them as well.
ImaXXXXXandivote
I feel the same way as you. Whether we like it or not I cannot see the ALP winning the election.
lizzie
“@alisonsbread He has a ‘wet fish’ handshake weak character.Bill’s strong. Turnbull wiped his hands on jacket after shaking Bill’s at debate”
Is this really what we have come to?
imaXXXXXandivote
From my reading of entrails and assorted tea leaves the Liberals will be returned with about 10-12 majority.
—
Must have some marijuana mixed in your tea leaves. Bridge too far for Labor ? I might agree. But a 10-12 majority to the Coal-mission – ‘Tell him he is dreaming’ or reading The Australian instead of just using it to kick start wood fires or wrapping prawn shells for the bin.
PheonixR – Yep that was her – hard to believe as you say and I think poor little Mandy Rice-Davies passed away 2-3 years ago. CTar1 and, of course, you are quite right about Suez…..
Sit git of Rimmer
I prefer the term ‘chinese whispers’ to ‘the process by which a piece of information becomes less reliable each time it is told by one person to another’.
The synonyms like ‘gossip’ dont cut it.
I have heard it called Russian Scandal – is that less racist?
Pedant
Anything’s possible in the ACT or NT.
One for the doom and gloom brigade about Labor’s chances. Here’s a video of a guy jumping for joy when he sees Bill Shorten turn up:
https://mobile.twitter.com/StephieBorys/status/741509319443681280/video/1
lizzie @ 5.45pm: There was story that at the Geneva Conference on Indochina, just after the French had been defeated at Dien Bien Phu in 1954, John Foster Dulles, after shaking hands with Chou En-Lai, took out his handkerchief and wiped his hand; at which point Chou En-Lai took out his own handkerchief, wiped his hand, and threw the handkerchief away.
Tricot
“They would say that, wouldn’t they”.
😀
I don’t think it is big news to come here, as some have done recently, and propose Labor might not win the July 2 election. There are PBers who are more optimistic than others, but very few live in a fools paradise and think there are throngs in the streets calling for the downfall of the LNP. However, there is a feeling in WA that Labor will not lose its three seats and stand to gain up to 3 more….(and then some?) as at least a kick in the shins or at least a thump on the heads to the Liberals might be on its way. I can’t really speak for the other side of the Rabbit Proof, other to use the same old, same old comment to the effect that elections are really won and lost in NSW. So, if all Labor is doing is holding its own in that State or doing a little better, this, of itself will see the LNP back. Nobody is, I am sure, unaware that to win an extra 19-21 seats, whatever, against a first term government no matter how poorly it is going, is more like an Everest to climb rather than Kioskiusko.
Pedant
Clevaah!
I think Pyne is reasonably safe in Sturt, but Briggs has huge problems. If Grey is in trouble then other seats are as well but I highly doubt one of them is Hindmarsh, it makes no sense.
Shorten will still go hard right until the end.To be competetive at this election is a great effort considering 4 months ago he was dead and buried politically.Im sure hes giving 100% and he will win seats back for Labor.Turnbulls authority will be diminished forever and Im sure he thought they wouldnt lose any seats this time round.Turnbull could very well have a crossbench that will oppose him as last time. It will serve him right.His masterstroke will have failed spectacularly.
David P
Nothing would please me more than being wrong on this…..my take is this…..although the electorate didn’t quite get the goods they ordered with Malcolm the Munificent they aren’t bothered enough to send it back to the manufacturer…they just don’t have enough confidence in what they will get as a replacement…in the last week or so when swingers are making up their minds they will hold their nose and reluctantly vote for the shonks and spivs once more
Tricot
It’s a big ask – 4 or so down will be a very good effort. Shorten, Bowen (!) and Burke are doing well.
Meanwhile Plibersik and Maclin have gone missing.
CTar1
“Meanwhile Plibersik and Maclin have gone missing.”
What? Plibersek was out pushing for Albo a day or two back.
In terns for just $4 an hour at that Lib’s brothel in Frankston?
SK I was just making a pop culture reference to Red Dwarf in series ten a while episode is based around that question
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/nt-minister-nathan-barrett-resigns-over-sex-video-claims-20160611-gpgzgg.html
In a vain attempt to outdo the brothel-owning Liberal candidate, CountryLiberal NT minister had to resign after sending a femle constituent videos of him wanking himself.
As the linked story explains, this was out of character, and he is a fine upstanding member of his local church. And he was considered a possible future NT Treasurer.
While = whole
Tanya was hardly missing at the ALP’s womens policy launch this morning. Don’t know what CTar1 is talking about here?
Marrickville Mauler
Me either!
MTBW
Yes, I saw her doing that.
She seems a bit lost as shadow FA’s. Better to give her something domestic.
I think it will be closer than that but the Liberals still have the edge. I’m giving Labor 45% chance – better than the bookies I know.
The next few weeks will test whether Labor can communicate with the public DESPITE the media. We’ll see.
I haven’t seen Macklin but Plibersek has been all over Facebook the past few days.
I’m trying to think whether this is a step up from that LNPer who texted photos of his whoseewhatsit in a glass of wine.
CTar1@ 6.06 pm
Really don’t know who is MIA and who is not but there seem more on the LNP side who are hiding/under wraps at the moment…….where has Dutton been for weeks, for instance? It seems the new approach to electioneering is have 4-5 of your own team do all the parrying back and forth and give air time to the Leader. Where has Julie Bishop been for instance? After his less than stellar performance, B Joyce seems to have gone to ground as well. I am sure this is an orchestrated tactic by both sides to contain gaffes, slips of the tongue etc. The fewer who open their mouths at any one time tends to lessen the risk of cock up….perhaps. Mind you, the media is partly to blame for this as they just want a contest – not caring who wins (like 20-20 cricket I suppose) and opportunities for “gotchas”. I tend to think our democracy is really in quite poor shape – but then, this seems to be the case in similar type constituencies across the world.
‘although the electorate didn’t quite get the goods they ordered with Malcolm the Munificent ‘
bwahahaha
Around about 4 million people have changed their minds about him being preferred prime minister in less than eight months.
It has been one of most dizzying declines in personal popularity in polling history.
Instead of delivering possible seat GAINs for the Liberals as was freely bruited when he first went in, his current majority looks to be around a fifth of what he inherited from Abbott.
Turnbull is not a team player. He has a shitfoul temper. He treats his colleagues with profound disrespect. He believes in nothing much more than making an almighty buck any which way he can. His natural sea is crooks and liars.
Turnbull is classic born-to-rule rich kid spiv prick. More and more of the punters are onto him. The sleeve-tugging shits that are clinging to him are hoping that they can make a buck out of him.