ReachTEL has produced another lineball result on two-party preferred for the Seven Network, which stays at 50-50 after moving from 52-48 in Labor’s favour the week before. However, the poll offers some encouragement for the Coalition in having them up and Labor down on the primary vote for the second week in a row, and the two-party result would have rounded to 52-48 in their favour if 2013 election preference flows were applied, as ReachTEL did until quite recently. Labor was able to retain parity in the headline result through a still greater flow of respondent-allocated minor party and independent preferences, which already looked stronger than plausible.
Labor did particularly poorly this week (and to a lesser extent last week) on the forced response follow-up question for the undecided, on which they failed to crack 20%. With the result of the follow-up question integrated into the total, the primary votes are 42.7% for the Coalition (up 1.2%), 33.2% for Labor (down 1.7%), 9.9% for the Greens (down 0.2%) and 4.5% for the Nick Xenophon Team (down 0.5%). On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull’s combined very good and good rating is up from 26.3% to 28.3%, and poor plus very poor is down from 40.8% to 37.4%. Shorten is down on both measures, from 29.0% to 27.5% on the former and 39.6% to 38.6% on the latter, and Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is effectively unchanged, down from 55.6-44.4 to 55.4-44.6. The automated phone poll was conducted last night from a sample of 2175, which is on the low side by ReachTEL’s standards.
Of perhaps even greater interest than the national result is the regular weekly supplementary marginal seat poll, which credits the Andrea Broadfoot of the Nick Xenophon Team with a 54-46 two-party lead over Liberal member Rowan Ramsay in the electorate of Grey, which covers South Australia’s “iron triangle” of Whyalla, Port Augusta and Port Pirie, together with the state’s remote areas. Inclusive of the forced preference results, the primary votes are Liberal 39.4%, Nick Xenophon Team 32.7%, Labor 14.5% and Greens 5.5%, with around three-quarters of preferences flowing to Broadfoot. The poll was conducted last night from a sample of 665.
UPDATE: BludgerTrack updated with the ReachTEL result below. As BludgerTrack is going off 2013 election preferences, it’s treating this poll as being close to 52-48 in the Coalition’s favour, and there has accordingly been a significant shift in that direction on two-party preferred. However, it’s only yielded one extra seat on the seat projection because of some fairly substantial changes in the state-level results. This is because I’ve only just now added the state results for the last two ReachTEL polls, because their new practice of reporting undecided results presented an accounting difficulty that I’ve only now attended to. The inclusion of these numbers has makes little difference in New South Wales, pares the Coalition back in Queensland, and inflates them in the other four states. In seat terms, this knocks three off their tally in Queensland, and adds two in Western Australia (corrected what looked like an excessive result there earlier) and one each in Victoria and Tasmania.
Labor had an ordinary week because it’s hard to convince people you will spend more over the next four years than the other side but end up in the same place. That was always going to be a hard message to sell.
Looking at that image of Bill…
… and as a social observation, I lived near Box Hill around 60 years ago. Our really big day out was to go to the Chinese for dinner. This happened as a special event maybe once or twice a year. The operators would have been absolutely the only chinese, or asians of any description, we would see in any given 12 month period.
The seats need are a big ask, no doubt. But…….It aint over till Anthony Green calls its on July 2. Well, except for Malcolm…hes gone either then or within a few weeks after. ALP fer sure the underdogs, but i think well in the hunt.
Fess
Excellent policy annoucements today by Shorten and Co.
“That form of Elizabethan dress displayed the wares.”
Or how many pairs of socks you owned.
Boerwar
The demographics in Box Hill have certainly changed this then!!
e-m
Re NXT, you do rather sound as if you know more about it than I do.
v
The school I went to had around a thousand students. I can’t recall a single Asian.
vic:
Yep, and Plibersek front and centre throughout.
Bluey Bulletin 76 Day 82 of 2013
ROAD TO HELL
Bluey’s favourite road sign was the one which, if observed, would have caused the driver to do 40kph for the next 130 kilometres. The consequent botses as cars doing 100 kph had to decelerate rapidly to 40kph would have livened the trip.
PISS OFF JOYCE
Joyce is nothing if not ethically corrupt. His decision to force several hundred human beings to up sticks and live in his electorate as a pork barrelling exercise says it all. Bluey notes that Windsor’s numbers appearing to be improving as the campaign goes on. Oh, and Bluey reckons Joyce should piss off.
SWINGEING DICK, SWINGING VOTE
Barrett, devout Christian, married, NT Sports Minister, soon to be Giles Government Treasurer, decided it would be an excellent idea to send sexually explicit videos of himself to one of his constituents. His explanation for this was that his relationship with his wife was in a rough patch. In what is probably one of the worst-ever governments in Australian history, the Giles Government has yet another crash and burn moment. Bluey reckons that assorted baseball bats, machetes, cricket bats and axes will be waiting for him in town and that, since Giles went out of his way early in the term to cut funding to remote communities, the nulla nullas will be waiting for him out in the sticks. Bluey has seen what a nulla nulla can do to human flesh and bones, and it is not pretty.
SUPERNOVA
Bluey’s currency is crabs and cowries. Fishing in Eureka, Bluey came across this: “Bond guru Bill Gross tweeted on Thursday: ‘Global yields lowest in 500 years of recorded history. $10 trillion of negative rate bonds. This is a Supernova that will explode one day.’”
Also on Tuesday the NAB business survey is released with the weekly consumer confidence data from ANZ and Roy Morgan. In trend terms business conditions are at 8-year highs. And consumer confidence is at the highest levels in 29 months, no doubt underpinned by data showing the strongest economic growth in 3½ years.
Plus record car sales.
Bluey reckons that there is a sort of lemming meet cliffs madness in the disjunct between the economic and political policy domains.
ROOTED
Cavities in walls; sex slaves; Whammo! Bluey reckons good bye and thanks for coming.
$10 million of investors’ money. Bluey reckons that Mr Jeremyn continues to impress.
GHOSTWATCH
Bluey reckons that neither Windsor nor Oakshott are doing Labor any favours.
TACTICS AND STRATEGY
Bluey reckons that Turnbull and the Spivs are rat cunning. They back-ended the Big End of Town Company tax cuts. It looks like the Never Never. But they are planning to legislate the tax cuts in year one. Softly, softly catchee monkey punters.
Bluey reckons that Labor went for the sucker punch. It is like the Charge of the Light Brigade deja vue all over again. It should have back-ended the Gonski and hospitals spend. It should have had a smaller deficit over forward estimates than the Liberal. We are only talking a few billion in a budget of $450 billion. Bluey reckons that Turnbull and Morrison can hardly believe his luck. As for it being a good time to let the Liberals fuck up in government, Bluey reckons it is never a good time to let the Liberals hold government. Ever. They wreck they joint and they erode the social contract. Always have. Always do. Always will.
Verdict for the day: Evens
Cumulative Tall: Labor 48.5 Liberal/Family First/Greens/Justice Party/Miners/Banks/Assorted Spivs Anti-Labor Alliance 32.5
just me @ #648 Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 7:44 pm
MTBW reported that there was a significant block of Chinese voters in Banks who were influenced by community leaders to support the Libs.
That photo was at Box Hill in the Chisholm electorate where there is a significant Chinese presence among whom are a number of ALP members and many supporters. It is the same in the Bruce electorate.
In the Vic State Election, we had a great candidate of Chinese ethnicity, Jennifer Yang, for the Mt Waverley electorate. She is now a Senate candidate.
We also have an MP of Cambodian-Chinese ethnicity in the state seat of Clayton, and a Monash Councillor of Chinese ethnicity.
Australians of Chinese and other ethnic backgrounds have a strong presence in the ALP locally where they play an important role and are valued party members.
Check out this website: http://poliversity.org.au/
Poliversity is founded by Australian Labor Party members Wesa Chau and Jieh-Yung Lo.
It is important that all ethnic groups can be comfortable with the ALP and as members of the ALP. In the eastern suburbs of Melbourne, we have been successful in this.
Boerwar
Check out the stats for Box Hill
http://myboot.com.au/3128/Box%20Hill/demographics.aspx
Here is a very interesting read.
I find it helps put all the argy-bargy of ‘economic discourse’ in context, whether you accept the premise or not.
http://www.truth-out.org/opinion/item/36376-our-neoliberal-nightmare-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-and-why-the-wealthy-win-every-time
OMG I’ve only now just learned what the Streissand Effect is! All the times I’d seen it written and had no idea.
http://www.esquire.com/entertainment/music/news/a45640/fat-axl-rose-meme-removed/
The phrase that captured my attention most was:
“inequality can only be addressed through higher taxation, which has by now been excluded from the realm of acceptable discourse”, which is exactly how the Australian election economic debate is being played out.
confessions @ #650 Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 7:46 pm
Yes, it attracted an interesting comment from a woman too.
Katy Gallagher
59m59 minutes ago
Katy Gallagher @SenKatyG
Brothels, abusing protestors, sex tapes and missing millions the Libs have really outdone themselves today
Thanks Boerwar. Bluey is entertaining and astute as ever I esp love that he lumps “Liberal/Family First/Greens/Justice Party/Miners/Banks/Assorted Spivs Anti-Labor Alliance” in the same category, for this is what these entities ultimately represent and therefore should be expressed as.
ALP have carefully constructed a solid foundation as a platform to push forwards from in the last 3 weeks. LNP just have their budget with several billion put aside for pork barrelling and questionable donations funding personal smear attack ads.
Coming around the turn into the straight to use a racing analogy I would be feeling ok with my cash on the ALP. Bill Shorten and the ALP have my respect for the way they are conducting their campaign and I am sure if they continue in this fashion many others will appreciate it also.
It is hard to see the advantage LNP have gained from calling the DD. The senate will be completely screwed.
I hear the ex Liberal candidate for Frankston will no longer be participating in the current erection campaign.
Vic
And Bluey called it an even day for both parties.
v
Wow!
v
Your hubby and boyo must have been contented after last night?
Cupidstunt
Whilst i enjoyed Bluey immensely, calling today evens was a bit rough!!
Boerwar
Not sure what the wow was for?
They both went to game and enjoyed sitting in the comfortable seating of the medallion club at Etihad. They were very relaxed and comfortable and suffered no anxiety whatsover! And at no point, did they consider the mercy rule!!
mtbw @ #574 Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 5:48 pm
This from the poster who judges political honesty on whether or not the person has a weak chin???
I hope Blueys not turning into the Oz hack David Crowe,
Of course everyone needs help’: Longman divided on cuts to tax and welfare
Coalition’s business-led prosperity pitch is bought by those who see self-reliance as the way to fix disadvantage, but advocacy groups aren’t convinced
Megan Gordon, 18, an education student and butchery worker from near Caboolture, is sold on the Coalition’s vision of economic growth fuelled by company tax cuts.
But Gordon, 18, will not be swayed by concerns about government welfare cuts affecting low-income families, especially single mothers, when she casts her vote for the first time in the federal election on 2 July.
She is sold on the Coalition’s vision of economic growth fuelled by company tax cuts, laid out to her on Friday night by Malcolm Turnbull and her local MP Wyatt Roy in a local “Politics in the Pub”-style event.
The education student and butchery worker from near Caboolture met Roy while captain of her high school. “I think he’s great, I think they’re both great,” she said.
“I think the tax cuts and all that would be something for the majority of people, because everyone’s looking for tax cuts. It just depends if it happens.”
a comment
fiberal
1h ago
4 5
Now Guardian, just for a bit of balance, you know what that is, go and interview an unemployed slob, with a singlet, have him discuss a 50 fucking billion tax cut for cheats, I will bet my balls the answer will be quite different
Megan then asks for her KOOL-AID to be topped up at the bar
Sorry Boer, but on today I think Bluey was way too generous to the Libs. Then again, I expect that the polling is influencing Bluey regardless of actual events.
v
Wow, the social profile of Box Hill.
You know the more I think about it, the more I am convinced that Coalition policies are devised purely and simply for their self- aggrandisement & that of their fellow travelers. Definitely not for the Common Good.
Just take the ‘Jobs and Growth’, Innovation and Start Ups mantras they have been reciting like drones during the election campaign.
If anyone asks them for substance and proof that their claims will, indeed, produce the goods as claimed, they say, it’s all in our Budget and in our election booklet. If you go look at it, it’s not there at all, no hard facts, it’s just like one of those misleading glossy prospectuses. Which I guess they are all too familiar with.
Not that journalists care to press them on it. No, it’s all about looking into Scott Morrison’s big black cakehole and transcribing what spews out of it. Or sniggering along with Malcolm. Or, if on the Julie Bishop round, joining in on the Mean Girls routine.
THAT appears to be the sum total of the election coverage so far. Except at the margins of the mainstream media.
And then leaving it the tabloids and the shock jocks, both on radio and TV, to bag out Labor.
I mean, I can see it now, just like last term when Abbott’s mates in the Private Education sector made out like bandits with taxpayers $ for their Private Colleges, next term, should Malcolm charm the electorate into re-electing the Spivs and Shonks Party, they will make out like bandits again with taxpayers’ $. Not only due to the Corporate Tax Cuts, which the reps of the spivs and shonks in ACCI and the IPA are only too eager to tell the world about the benefits of (to them, mostly), but also, as the Chris Jermyn ‘Mooter’ story so amply demonstrates, by way of Malcolm’s ‘exciting and agile’ tax subsidies to Start Ups.
Just watch the little piggies squeal in delight if they get their snouts in THAT trough. Not only can they rip off the investors but they can also rip off the taxpayer!
Too easy!
When you’ve got the propaganda machine on your side and purring away nicely in the background to aid and abet you till you get over the line and shot of that pesky democratic thing they call an election.
Jenauthor
I have put your POV to Bluey and Bluey reckons that when he is not being a maniacally one-eyed tribalist, he is secular. Remember, Bluey does his stuff with three hearts, eight arms and hundreds of suckers. It is all very scientific. Bluey, killed a chook, studied the entrails but could not see a swag of votes shifting today, so he called it evens.
C
So does Bluey.
confessions
Bluey says thank you.
Plibersek is in Brisbane this evening to launch Griffith MP Terri Butler’s campaign, together with Deputy Premier Jackie Tradd, and will be campaigning in and around Brisbane tomorrow, I believe.
Tanya is a frequent visitor to QLD and is well regarded up here.
Butler and Plibersek are similar in temperament, and present well.
Boerwar
Ah. Of course!
Remind me again why we have a parliamentary press gallery. This from 2007 on Parkeelia:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/walker-linked-to-liberal-company/2007/03/19/1174152970900.html
Bluey reckons it is never a good time to let the Liberals hold government. They wreck they joint and they erode the social contract.
Bluey is right.
Fess
A bludger (apologies as I dont recall who) posted this article in the past couple of days. You gotta wonder how the msm would have handled this had it been the Labor party
feeney @ #684 Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 8:27 pm
You are fortunate indeed to have Terri Butler as your local member. She has a bright future and I have enjoyed all her media appearances.
vic:
I think we know how msm would’ve reacted if the boot was on the other foot.
victoria @ #688 Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 8:32 pm
The media, as I have observed, are too busy being chummy with their lords and masters in the Coalition and all too ready to bare their fangs at Labor when told to do so by same.
My sons live in a flat in Box Hill, less than five minutes walk from where the photo was taken. (Alas, they missed Bill’s visit).
I love visiting!
One bookshop reminded us very strongly of the huge one in China (five storeys high, each floor the size of a department store) we visited for hours at a time — my son spotted a logo on the window, and – sure enough – it turned out that it’s a (very down sized) Australian branch.
c@t
I have actually been the most disappointed with the ABC during this election period.
C@t:
Personally the ABC has let voters down during this election. This isn’t a one time thing however. Both my parents have complained independently to me over the last 2 elections how appalling the ABC coverage has been. Obviously it’s getting worse.
vic:
Snap!!
I assume this is genuine. Peter Slipper has tweeted after a long break
Peter Slipper
2h2 hours ago
Peter Slipper @PNSlipper
I would like to thank you all for your prayers and support over the 4 years of #ashbygate. They are very much appreciated!!!
C@t @ 8:25PM: If anyone asks them for substance and proof that their claims will, indeed, produce the goods as claimed, they say, it’s all in our Budget and in our election booklet.
Like the 2013 Blue Booklet ‘Real Solutions’, the Liberal’s so-called plan is nothing but a collection of empty motherhood statements plus some crap about borders and terrorism, plus requests for money: https://www.liberal.org.au/our-plan
slipper’s twitterfeed
https://mobile.twitter.com/PNSlipper
Fess
Snap indeed!!
Bottom line of budget cuts? They hurt low-income families
Lenore Taylor
ThisLyingGovernment someones not a fan
13m ago
0 1
I was wondering why the gruandian was having so much trouble holding these imbeciles to account. Then I read this.
It is worth mentioning that most of the UK’s big media organisations shelter assets and cash flows offshore. Top of the hypocrites in this respect is The Guardian. They put their assets in the Caymans, and they used a Luxembourg tax shell designed by PriceWaterhouseCoopers to funnel cash flows beyond the reach of HMRC. They previously blamed the difficult economic environment for committing the sins for which they condemn others. This isn’t just hypocrisy, this is an insult to us all. The Guardian’s entire heritage is one of tax dodging, the original founding Scott Trust was itself a tax dodge. They have year after year avoided tens of millions of taxes…
http://order-order.com/2016/04/04/media-organisations-using-offshore-havens/
there are jobs out there
dinkumwinkum
3h ago
2 3
Maybe budget cuts do hurt low income families but the parents involved could always go out and find a job in one of the brothels owned by a Liberal party candidate.