BludgerTrack is now updated with all of the federal polling published over the past few days, results of which are displayed at the bottom of this post. As has been the case since at least the start of the campaign period, the tracker is resolute in recording an effective dead heat on two-party preferred, with the seat projection continuing to point towards a slender absolute majority for the Coalition. The latest addition to the aggregate is the weekly reading of Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling aggregate, which echoes BludgerTrack in coming in at 50-50 on two-party preferred. This follows a two-point movement the previous week that turned a 51-49 Coalition deficit into a 51-49 Coalition lead. On the primary vote, the Coalition is steady at 41%, Labor is up one to 36%, the Greens are up one to 9%, and the Nick Xenophon Team is steady on 4%.
Further questions offer some encouragement for Bill Shorten with respect to perceptions of the two leaders during the campaign, although I wonder how good respondents are at isolating that period specifically. The results find 20% saying they have become more favourable towards Shorten versus 21% for less favourable, but these are much better than Malcolm Turnbull’s respective figures of 7% and 33%. Another dose of Essential’s “party trust to handle issues” records a big drop in the Coalition’s lead on managing the economy since a month ago, down from 20% to 12%, with most other measures remaining fairly stable. An occasional question on climate change records a four point drop since March in those attributing it to human activity to 59%, and a one point increase in those favouring the alternative option of it being “a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate” to 28%. Most of the survey period was before large parts of Sydney’s northern beaches crumbled into the sea. Further questions confirm the impression that the electorate has been less than fully switched on during the first half of the campaign marathon, with only 14% claiming to have shown a lot of interest in the campaign, compared with 39% for some interest, 27% for very little interest and 18% for no interest.
Federal election bits and pieces:
• Labor’s candidate in Malcolm Turnbull’s seat of Wentworth, Evan Hughes, has provided Fairfax with results of a ReachTEL poll he commissioned showing a 10% swing against Turnbull, reducing his margin from 18% to 8%. The poll was conducted last Tuesday from a sample of 626.
• Steven Scott of the Courier-Mail reports Labor optimism about the regional Queensland seats of Capricornia and Herbert is not matched for the state’s capital. The northern suburbs seat of Petrie, held by the LNP on a margin of 0.5%, is identified as a seat where Labor is falling short. A similar prognosis was offered in my own paywalled article in Crikey on Thursday.
• More of my words of wisdom on the campaign can be found on a podcast for The Conversation, and in a review of northern Tasmania’s flood-stricken marginal seats in a paywalled Crikey article yesterday.
• Mark the Ballot tracks Sportsbet’s win probabilities for all 150 electorates to the start of the campaign. Sportsbet has substantially revised its odds over the course of the campaign in favour of the Liberals in Banks, Hindmarsh and Lyons, the Liberal National Party in Leichhardt, the Greens in Batman, Labor in Cowan, and Bob Katter in Kennedy.
• Fairfax reports the Victorian Liberal Party’s administration committee discussed, but ultimately decided against, disendorsing McEwen candidate Chris Jermyn following his struggles before the news cameras as he gatecrashed a Bill Shorten event in Sunbury last weekend.
• An alleged promise by South Australian property developer Roostam Sadri to donate $500,000 to the Liberal Democratic Party in exchange for the top position on its South Australian Senate ticket has been referred to police by the Australian Electoral Commission, as reported yesterday by Josh Taylor of Crikey. This followed last week’s publication by Fairfax of an apparent written agreement to that effect. Sadri denies having paid such an amount, or that there was ever a “formal agreement”. The section of the Electoral Act pertaining to bribery offences provides, with helpful exactitude, that “a person shall not ask for, receive or obtain, or offer or agree to ask for, or receive or obtain, any property or benefit of any kind, whether for the same or any other person, on an understanding that the order in which the names of candidates nominated for election to the Senate whose names are included in a group in accordance with section 168 appear on a ballot paper will, in any manner, be influenced or affected”. Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland’s TC Beirne School of Law notes that Section 362 of the Act states that candidates forfeit their seats if involved in bribery, and that this requires only the civil rather than the criminal standard of proof. This could equally apply to David Leyonhjelm’s bid for re-election in New South Wales as to Roostam Sadri’s run in South Australia, if the Fairfax report’s assertion that Leyonhjelm “considered entering” an agreement was substantiated.
Further afield:
• The Northern Territory News offers a reminder that a territory election looms on August 27, and the Northern Territory News offers a helpful reminder with a Mediareach poll of 400 respondents in the Alice Springs electorates of Araluen and Braitling. The pollster appears to have failed to ask a follow-up question to prompt the 23% undecided, rendering it of little value, but it’s presumably instructive that less than 40% of decided respondents said they would vote for the Country Liberal Party, compared with 68% at the 2012 election.
• The Sydney Morning Herald reports the NSW Electoral Commission is investigating allegations of vote-rigging during Labor’s American primary-style “community preselection” process for the seat of Ballina ahead of last year’s state election. It is alleged that a party official used details on enrolled voters from the party’s database to fraudulently vote on their behalf during the online ballot, although the unnamed official is quoted saying he had merely “played along” when asked to do so by persons unidentified. The proposed beneficiary was the favoured candidate of head office and the ultimate victor in the preselection, Paul Spooner, with no suggestion that Spooner himself was involved. The formerly Nationals-held seat went on to be won by the Greens.
Mike Kelly been told by the ADF to remove images of him in uniform – per Sky News
BEMUSED – I guess the more interesting question is whether her fellow MPs are supportive or not; whether this is a black mark against her leadership ambitions or not. Dunno.
AJM
I would think very clearly about calling the CFA right wing. Talk about handing over a key and trusted institution to the libs. Mind you, turkeys in the Andrews government have already done this.
This is an Andrews shit storm that Shorten needs to fix. Almost Every single volunteer firefighter and Ses member across Australia is watching with horror and almost every volunteer emergency fire association representing those members is backing the CFA. Shorten has a very large opportunity to smack Andrews down and get the support of hundreds of thousand volos across australia. The volos are not trying to stop pay rises here.
kevin-one-seven @ #1402 Friday, June 10, 2016 at 1:13 pm
I am not close enough to know the parliamentary caucus view. But I think within the ALP more broadly she is well regarded.
4 of the 8 CFA Board members (including the chairman) and the CEO were appointed by Labor govts. Hardly a festering pool of stacked right-wingers
A Guardian comment had made me notice how quiet the right-wing nuts in the liberal party have gone (Andrews, Abetz et al). They’re obviously trying to lie very, very low until after the election.
3 minutes of Fran on RN Breakfast this morning (in conversation with Grattan):
“backdowns, backflips, shredded economic credibility”
“backflip, same old Labor spend spend spend”
“Jenny Macklin’s credibility shredded”
“another anti business measure from Labor”
Simon Katich
Mount Torrens oval.
BB. that is just not the case. Volunteer Brigades are a cross section of the community in regards to voting. Sure, you will find more libs in lib held seats. Conversely more Labor in Labor seats. But no party holds the keys to the CFA or RFS ect. Unless labor wants to argue that it is not the party of volunteering to support the community in times of crisis.
rummel @ #1403 Friday, June 10, 2016 at 1:15 pm
Back in the 1960s & 70s (not sure of dates) the CFA had a former military guy in charge and had a reputation of being organised on paramilitary lines.
That seems to have long passed and I think the current CEO is quite good (Lucinda Nolan, ex VicPol) but I am not so sure about the board who do appear to be a major stumbling block.
rummel @ #1409 Friday, June 10, 2016 at 1:23 pm
IIRC a member of the Victorian ministry is a CFA Volunteer, Danielle Green.
Another Liberal who’s keeping a very low profile: Peter Dutton.
That was meant to be BW not BB, sorry 🙂
Labor plans to abolish the private health insurance rebate for quack remedies. I’m surprised these were allowed in the first place.
A good move from Labor to stop rebates on junk medical services.
Good stuff from Bill Shorten.
Thanks to those who have filled in my lack of knowledge of the Victorian CFA. I even almost agree with Rummell (will I ever lie this down) that if Shorten can “do a Bob Hawke” and swoop in and solve the situation he might gather rather a lot of votes from all over.
lie = live of course
There’s no situation to solve. The umpire has spoken, and the state government is accepting its decision.
r
I agree with you in relation to representation.
I was trying to look at it from another perspective.
You might note my earlier post on the topic. You will also note that I was imagining the ideal CFA person and that my conclusion was that Andrews does not stand a chance against them.
The umpire of work conditions… Have you not noticed that we are talking about a few thousand paid staff among 60,000 people. The fact that the minister has resigned is not enough to demonstrate there is an issue?
steve777 @ #1414 Friday, June 10, 2016 at 1:38 pm
A big cheer from me on that one.
That is why the FWC was set up.Its not a surprise the Vic govt is adopting the recommendations,otherwise the FWC is a useless body of wasted money.
Labor firmly believe in the FWC as Shorten has said on numerous occasions
ajm @ #1417 Friday, June 10, 2016 at 1:41 pm
Fine, but I wouldn’t want it done in a way that diminishes our excellent Premier.
zoomster @ #1419 Friday, June 10, 2016 at 1:44 pm
It may well not be all over.
The CFA Board could well choose to resign as they have threatened and that is not a good look.
BK – Mt Torrens oval.
It stands out like a big green Eye of Sauron in google maps.
Kersbrook Oval are looking at redoing their irrigation using recycled water from the CWMS.
I think the volunteers do a great job,but they have to respect that the professionals have a lot more training and experience as it is their job everyday,every week.
The polls have been fixed around a 50 – 50 2PP outcome and first preferences seem unlikely to move enough to change the 76/70/4 Mr Bowe’s analysis is estimating. I have only found 11 of the 13 seats Labor needs to get to 70 and I am worried about Batman {Robertson-Lindsay-Capricornia-Petrie-Braddon-Lyons-Bass-Solomon-Hindmarsh-Cowan-Burt} so where will the other two gains come from ? The six potential hidden baseball bat seats I have identified are Boothby (SA), Longman (Qld), Hasluck (WA), Dunkley (Vic) Macarthur and Eden Monaro(NSW) which will I hope get Labor to 71 [+14] and pull the Fibs down to 75. Fingers crossed.
bemused
the Minister has told the board that if they can’t accept the agreement by this evening, they’ll be sacked.
I’m puzzled about this CFA business in Victoria. It might as well be happening on the moon on this side of the Rabbit Proof. And besides, how many times have we heard the gurus tell us “Intelligent voters can tell the difference between State and Federal issues”? So, while I am ignorant of any fall out for State Labor in this matter, that Shorten should swoop “Hawke-like” to fix it up and/or “Smack Andrews down” (wtte) flies in the face of the “intelligent voters can tell the difference” stuff. Proof of the pudding it seems to be suggests voters can tell the difference – certainly in Queensland recently – when a first term government, inept and unpopular with its leader the same, was thrown out of office while a its Federal counterpart soldiered on. I remember the Labor opposition being derided as being so few that they could fit in a minibus, had a leader who nobody could remember who she was, let alone pronounce her name, and tea-leave pundits suggesting Labor, in Queensland, would be in Opposition, one , two , three terms…………….for ever. By the way, where is Campbell now????
david Petersen … do you have Reid in the ALP column? … I’ll put money on Tsirekos over Laundy in Reid.
zoomster @ #1430 Friday, June 10, 2016 at 2:02 pm
Potentially messy.
I hope you are right, but I think you may be erring on the side of optimism. There are dark forces trying to stir up trouble.
bemused
The Minister just said so, standing alongside the Premier. I’m only reporting.
No one has ever believed this. It’s something politicians at one level say when their party counterparts at a different level are polling badly.
There is no way that a poor state performance doesn’t have a strong correlation with taking a hit in the polls federally.
The ALP (Federally) in NSW has been suffering for years from the fallout from Obeid, Macdonald, Tripodi, et al.
The whole CFA thing makes no sense to me. Why are these organisational changes such a big deal that they couldn’t have been kicked down the road. Have they been tied to the pay deal negotiations – and if so, that was a really dumb move. This needs to be sorted, and from the resignation and hardball tactics today it looks like it is just going to blow up even worse.
It has the appearance of being able to lose the federal election for the ALP.
The ALP state government here in Queensland announced yesterday that they will increase the first-home buyers grant by $5,000 and help fund this by increasing the transfer duty surcharge for foreign property buyers by 3%
A Policy which gives more assistance to younger people like myself trying to save to buy a home and upsets the big end of town will have my support. This policy could play well federally for the ALP in some of the Queensland Marginals
“Australians wont be taken for fools” Turnbull says. Its exactly what theyve been doing for 3 years.
zoomster @ #1434 Friday, June 10, 2016 at 2:09 pm
Which Minister? Is there a replacement already?
The disruption within the Govt may be quelled, but that is far from the whole story.
Bareknuckle Joyce is pork-barreling Tamworth by moving 110 jobs there from Canberra during an election campaign without a cost-benefit analysis. You have to say he’s got balls – at least what u see is what you get with him unlike Talcum Talkbull
Abbott and Murdoch fooled them,and look what happened to Abbott.
Dont know how the fireys dispute could be a federal vote loser.Its being going on for 3 years in Victoria.
jenauthor
Friday, June 10, 2016 at 2:05 pm
david Petersen … do you have Reid in the ALP column? … I’ll put money on Tsirekos over Laundy in Reid.
I have Reid in my too close to call column
Its up to the CFA.I dont think it will going back to the FWC.
Barnaby Joyce, our Deputy PM.
An indictment of the intelligence of the average Australian punter.
Australia will remain an economic and social backwater until we can get past this.
The Firey’s issue in Victoria will have no more or less impact than the council amalgamations issue in NSW- WA is where the State Govt stinks enough to affect the Federal election baseball bat style, IMHO
Sorry Albo
VOTE 1 – Meow Ludo Disco Gamma Meow Meow
cupid –
I think you should take rummel’s opinions on this seriously.
Obviously the Libs have tried to create a line of attack on the ALP over this specific to this election. They may or may not be successful – if it bites it’s a big problem.
Having the FWC involved – even if only as an invited adjudicator with non-binding rulings – means there is the linkage to it being an Australia-wide issue, and volunteers outside of Victoria will be taking note of how this goes down.
Whether the concerns are real or not is kind of by-the-by. There is more than enough FUD in this confusing issue, and with instability and hardball tactics from the Vic government it looks bad. And it looks bad nationally.
I can’t help but think that the firies union has threatened serious disruption if they don’t get their way, and Andrews has made promises to the union that he thinks he can’t back down on now. If this was just about ongoing pay negotiations I don’t think this would have any bite. The organisational stuff seems to have been tied in with these negotiations in a way that must be hard to unpick.
bemused Friday, June 10, 2016 at 2:13 pm
zoomster @ #1434 Friday, June 10, 2016 at 2:09 pm
“bemused
The Minister just said so, standing alongside the Premier. I’m only reporting.”
Which Minister? Is there a replacement already?
***********************************************
New Emergency Services Minister James Merlino
The government has given the Country Fire Authority board until 5pm to accept the controversial deal with the firefighters’ union — or face dismissal.
The ultimatum was delivered on Friday afternoon by Deputy Premier James Merlino, as he was announced as a replacement for former Emergency Services Minister Jane Garrett.
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/emergency-services-minister-jane-garrett-has-resigned-20160610-gpg0on.html#ixzz4B9DAWS34
Last Morgan for Victoria State Govt 56-44 Labor,even though fireys dispute was going on.Next election in Vic 24th November 2018.
@ David Peterson
I would be looking closely at Hinkler as well in Queensland as a potential ALP gain. A lot of job losses in the area over the last few months and the decision of the LNP so far not to provide funding for the Townsville stadium upgrade is playing well for the ALP.