BludgerTrack is now updated with all of the federal polling published over the past few days, results of which are displayed at the bottom of this post. As has been the case since at least the start of the campaign period, the tracker is resolute in recording an effective dead heat on two-party preferred, with the seat projection continuing to point towards a slender absolute majority for the Coalition. The latest addition to the aggregate is the weekly reading of Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling aggregate, which echoes BludgerTrack in coming in at 50-50 on two-party preferred. This follows a two-point movement the previous week that turned a 51-49 Coalition deficit into a 51-49 Coalition lead. On the primary vote, the Coalition is steady at 41%, Labor is up one to 36%, the Greens are up one to 9%, and the Nick Xenophon Team is steady on 4%.
Further questions offer some encouragement for Bill Shorten with respect to perceptions of the two leaders during the campaign, although I wonder how good respondents are at isolating that period specifically. The results find 20% saying they have become more favourable towards Shorten versus 21% for less favourable, but these are much better than Malcolm Turnbull’s respective figures of 7% and 33%. Another dose of Essential’s “party trust to handle issues” records a big drop in the Coalition’s lead on managing the economy since a month ago, down from 20% to 12%, with most other measures remaining fairly stable. An occasional question on climate change records a four point drop since March in those attributing it to human activity to 59%, and a one point increase in those favouring the alternative option of it being “a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate” to 28%. Most of the survey period was before large parts of Sydney’s northern beaches crumbled into the sea. Further questions confirm the impression that the electorate has been less than fully switched on during the first half of the campaign marathon, with only 14% claiming to have shown a lot of interest in the campaign, compared with 39% for some interest, 27% for very little interest and 18% for no interest.
Federal election bits and pieces:
• Labor’s candidate in Malcolm Turnbull’s seat of Wentworth, Evan Hughes, has provided Fairfax with results of a ReachTEL poll he commissioned showing a 10% swing against Turnbull, reducing his margin from 18% to 8%. The poll was conducted last Tuesday from a sample of 626.
• Steven Scott of the Courier-Mail reports Labor optimism about the regional Queensland seats of Capricornia and Herbert is not matched for the state’s capital. The northern suburbs seat of Petrie, held by the LNP on a margin of 0.5%, is identified as a seat where Labor is falling short. A similar prognosis was offered in my own paywalled article in Crikey on Thursday.
• More of my words of wisdom on the campaign can be found on a podcast for The Conversation, and in a review of northern Tasmania’s flood-stricken marginal seats in a paywalled Crikey article yesterday.
• Mark the Ballot tracks Sportsbet’s win probabilities for all 150 electorates to the start of the campaign. Sportsbet has substantially revised its odds over the course of the campaign in favour of the Liberals in Banks, Hindmarsh and Lyons, the Liberal National Party in Leichhardt, the Greens in Batman, Labor in Cowan, and Bob Katter in Kennedy.
• Fairfax reports the Victorian Liberal Party’s administration committee discussed, but ultimately decided against, disendorsing McEwen candidate Chris Jermyn following his struggles before the news cameras as he gatecrashed a Bill Shorten event in Sunbury last weekend.
• An alleged promise by South Australian property developer Roostam Sadri to donate $500,000 to the Liberal Democratic Party in exchange for the top position on its South Australian Senate ticket has been referred to police by the Australian Electoral Commission, as reported yesterday by Josh Taylor of Crikey. This followed last week’s publication by Fairfax of an apparent written agreement to that effect. Sadri denies having paid such an amount, or that there was ever a “formal agreement”. The section of the Electoral Act pertaining to bribery offences provides, with helpful exactitude, that “a person shall not ask for, receive or obtain, or offer or agree to ask for, or receive or obtain, any property or benefit of any kind, whether for the same or any other person, on an understanding that the order in which the names of candidates nominated for election to the Senate whose names are included in a group in accordance with section 168 appear on a ballot paper will, in any manner, be influenced or affected”. Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland’s TC Beirne School of Law notes that Section 362 of the Act states that candidates forfeit their seats if involved in bribery, and that this requires only the civil rather than the criminal standard of proof. This could equally apply to David Leyonhjelm’s bid for re-election in New South Wales as to Roostam Sadri’s run in South Australia, if the Fairfax report’s assertion that Leyonhjelm “considered entering” an agreement was substantiated.
Further afield:
• The Northern Territory News offers a reminder that a territory election looms on August 27, and the Northern Territory News offers a helpful reminder with a Mediareach poll of 400 respondents in the Alice Springs electorates of Araluen and Braitling. The pollster appears to have failed to ask a follow-up question to prompt the 23% undecided, rendering it of little value, but it’s presumably instructive that less than 40% of decided respondents said they would vote for the Country Liberal Party, compared with 68% at the 2012 election.
• The Sydney Morning Herald reports the NSW Electoral Commission is investigating allegations of vote-rigging during Labor’s American primary-style “community preselection” process for the seat of Ballina ahead of last year’s state election. It is alleged that a party official used details on enrolled voters from the party’s database to fraudulently vote on their behalf during the online ballot, although the unnamed official is quoted saying he had merely “played along” when asked to do so by persons unidentified. The proposed beneficiary was the favoured candidate of head office and the ultimate victor in the preselection, Paul Spooner, with no suggestion that Spooner himself was involved. The formerly Nationals-held seat went on to be won by the Greens.
meher baba @ #1239 Friday, June 10, 2016 at 6:24 am
Labor will place its focus on programs in health, education & training, disability, infrastructure, innovation. These are all about making the economy stronger, improving social incomes, redressing inequality, improving opportunities for working people. This is in the very great tradition of Labor policy from Curtin on and bears no resemblance to the guesswork of your posting.
BB
Apparently the guy was on day release so not considered a huge danger to the community or no day release would have been granted.
MB
This does not sound left wing to me.
TheKouk: Curious that the Libs are bagging Labor for tightening spending, lowering the budget deficit & reducing govt debt #ausvotes
[Liberal-leaning think tank the Institute of Public Affairs has taken insider trader Oliver Curtis as its cause celebre, arguing that white-collar criminals should literally pay for their crimes rather than face prison.]
The libs see this stuff and the HIH, FAI Storm financial as victim less crimes, no harm done, nobody hurt.
Except for those families who have lost their savings and homes from these white collar crimes, the families broken up the suicides, no victims, nothing to see.
But the white collar crims don’t lose out, their money, included that ripped off from their clients is salted away in trusts, super, family assets and Cayman island accounts that generally cannot be touched.
their victims go to relying on welfare, whilst the white collar crims live a life of luxury supported by their family, usually who they are now divorced from to protect the ill begotten gains.
Are the IPA and the libs now proposing that employees who embezzle company funds, be it dipping into the till, giving mates freebies or big time scams pay only a fine?
There is going to be a Reachtel out tonight as I was polled last night, in the seat of Fowler. It gave no indication that it was an “in-seat” poll.
As to Fowler I suspect that they will be a swing back to the coalition from 2013 to the seat average. Going from what I have heard that the Chipping Norton part of the electorate ( formally part of Hughes) is rather hostile to Labor campaigners/door knockers. I suspect that, that suburb which contains a lot of “tradies” and other small business people have swallowed the Howard relaxed and comfortable cool-aid and it would take a recession under the Libs to change their votes to back to Labor as they used to vote pre 96.
Well, if that was the case, you could expect the emails to be flying thick and fast at Northern Sydney Local Health District. They’ll be looking for someone to blame.
These kinds of things have a tendency to get the higher-ups in a tizzy. Risk assessments will be carried out, tribunals, hearings and, in the background, the buzz of off-the-record phone calls will fill the air. I can promise you it’ll be full “Crisis Mode”.
boris @ #1304 Friday, June 10, 2016 at 10:00 am
The IPA really do want one rule for today’s aristocracy and another for the commoners. They are a corrupting influence on the discourse.
greensborough growler @ #1262 Friday, June 10, 2016 at 8:26 am
Compared to Hilary, Sanders and Trump, Turnbull is a mere youth while Bill is really a youngster!
BB
Yes. Exactly.
All unnecessary. With proper training the police would know not to shout and provoke a reaction from a mentally ill patient.
Simon Katich
#1275 Friday, June 10, 2016 at 8:52 am
The apparent temperature at my house been above 32° for 200 days.
Lovely Vietnam weather. 😉
abcnewsSydney: Greens call for probe into police treatment of mentally ill people after Hornsby shooting
https://t.co/Qx3cfCP5zu https://t.co/G92nFqu6oz
“Mr Barber, why do you keep raving on with such repetitive nonsense?
The people you describe are caricatures of your own crazed imaginings.”
This is so true. Mr Barber usually begins with a totally erroneous assumption, and goes downhill from there. Mostly with the aim of criticising labor or his perception of what the phrase ‘the left’ means.
Well there goes that as a Federal issue
abcnewsMelb: #BREAKING: Emergency Services Minister Jane Garrett has resigned from Cabinet https://t.co/Gb4SBVkpHX
I don’t really know what the age of a candidate has anything to do with anything.
Perhaps so, but did they know he was mentally ill? He might have been an ice addict, and they are notoriously almost impossible to manage when on a bender.
The whole think smacks of panic by inexperienced officers who have been told to shoot first and ask questions later.
I also note that someone from the 7 Network has been quoted as claiming the assailant was yelling “Allahu Akbar!”. That particular allegation has died a death, too.
If there is no option but to shoot someone in these situations, then we need more options. Any inquiry should be wide-ranging and very thorough.
simon katich @ #1278 Friday, June 10, 2016 at 8:55 am
Yes, it serves to underline yet again the perfidy of the Greens.
Adrian
Nothing. The issue should be one of competence and not assumed that competence is lacking through youth or being old.
Its pure ageism to assume. There are always exceptions to every rule with the young genius type and not all old people have failing mental facilities.
[The IPA really do want one rule for today’s aristocracy and another for the commoners. They are a corrupting influence on the discourse.]
Yar, briefly.
Like IPA poster boy Adlers comment to his son as to why he was going to a holiday farm, daddy’s been a naughty boy, these are the type of people that the IPA seems to want to be kept out of jail, the naughty boys.
markjs @ #1284 Friday, June 10, 2016 at 9:22 am
Well can we have the benefit of your informed opinion?
Haven’t seen any journos question hasite about his comments on Morrison policiticising the military and being the reason why Hastie left the army for politics.
What was the issue Hastie had with Morrison, was it Morrisons statement that if you cannot accept women as your equals in the army then get out.
Is that why Hastie resigned to become a liberal candidate?
Under Abbott, that well known champion of women?
BB
We are in agreement training is the key. As for Ice addicts I am not sure yelling at them helps any either.
The fact is I don’t know that is why I think training is the important part. Proper training prevents harm. Harm to the police, harm to innocent bystanders and harm to the person the police have been called out to deal with.
Your comments on police executions I happen to agree with btw. Training should be to make sure guns are really the last resort not the first resort.
The IPA really do want one rule for today’s aristocracy and another for the commoners. They are a corrupting influence on the discourse.
Yes, like the father of the Stanford Rapist in the US who thought that sending his guilty son to jail for only 6 months was manifestly excessive for ‘only 20 minutes of action’!
Plus, his son wouldn’t be able to eat steak any more!!!
The Plutocrats have become so venal that they will construe any situation for their own benefit. No matter how objectionable. Or how much one of the little people have been hurt by one of their own.
adrian @ #1314 Friday, June 10, 2016 at 10:17 am
Well it certainly agitates some on PB. At least one numpty has very ageist attitudes.
boris @ #1320 Friday, June 10, 2016 at 10:27 am
Like Tony Abbott, Hastie wishes to militarise the civil domain. The purpose appears to be to elevate “uniformed authority” almost as an end in itself. It’s is an attempt to substitute the rule of law with rank and a dress code. This is seriously misguided thinking. It’s one of the reasons Abbott fell from grace.
c@tmomma @ #1322 Friday, June 10, 2016 at 10:34 am
In the meantime, in WA and NT, we have mandatory imprisonment for some offenders; essentially, they are deprived of due process and subjected to arbitrary imprisonment. If Tony Abbott had had his way, other classes of persons would be rendered stateless and sent into exile or permanent captivity without being tried and charged at all. This all has to change. …really has to change.
Markjs
#1284 Friday, June 10, 2016 at 9:22 am
Mark,
If you read them again I think you will find that many of the posts were more generally talking about the appropriate level of force used by police and their training.
The event of the day just provoked this discussion.
Where I come from this is called corruption. Funneling public funds to the Liberal party.
Someone in the LNP should be prosecuted for this. Where’s the AFP this time?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-09/voter-feedback-software-company-donated-$1million-liberal-party/7498024
I received a flyer in my letterbox this morning from a local doctor regarding the Medicare freeze. I am assuming it was delivered by the postman with the mail.
It reads in part as follows:
.
It goes on;
.
Jenny Macklin is my local member and I am assuming the same flyer will be delivered to all residents in each marginal electorate from a local participating doctor and supporting the local ALP candidate. It is a very powerful message IMO.
Has anyone else here received one yet?
Labor needs to slam these two point:
1. There is no correlation between corporate tax rates and economic growth in OECD countries
2. Unemployment tends to rise as corporate tax rates drop.
i.e the OPPOSITE OF ‘JOBS AND GROWTH’
https://www.crikey.com.au/2016/03/29/the-economic-case-for-a-company-tax-cut-is-collapsing/
lefty e @ #1327 Friday, June 10, 2016 at 10:47 am
“Someone”? They were all in it up to their beady little eyes. Arrest them all! 😆
greg rudd @ #1305 Friday, June 10, 2016 at 10:06 am
Why would tradies have a different response than others to Labor campaigning? There are always some who are Lib-inclined and reluctant to engage with a volunteer. Then there is the voter from next door – the one who’s concerned about NBN or health or the NDIS or wants an upgrade on the local highway; the worker who’s worried about penalty rates, shorter hours or the chance of a tax increase.
Really, there are all sorts no matter where we venture. In every case, voters represent an opportunity to learn. If volunteers are getting knocked back all the time, perhaps they’re going about things the wrong way.
[Like Tony Abbott, Hastie wishes to militarise the civil domain.]
yep, and no comments from Hastie or the media on Abbott politicising the military with his bomb suit and machine gun firing stunts.
An IPA on the dont’ send white collar criminals to jail…..
Mosman obstetrician Keith Hartman. Father of six and grandfather of six more,
Dr Hartman brought Packer and Murdoch babies into the world, and last year was made a member of the
Order of Australia for services to obstetrics and gynaecology.
His son John Hartman has already done his time inside – he walked free last year having served 15 months of a sentence
which was originally set at four years. John had been a successful student at Catholic boys school St Ignatius, Riverview,
and had studied economics at Sydney University. (sounds like Tony Abbott). Brother Luke is a successful property developer
Oliver Curtis also studied at St Ignatius. Oliver Curtis’s father, the businessman Nick Curtis and Keith Hartman were connected through the Mater Hospital.
Nick Curtis, a founding partner of Riverstone Advisory and the executive chairman of rare earths miner Lynas Corp,
was chairing the hospital board and Dr Hartman has his ”boutique” obstetrics clinic next door at the Mater clinic
Oliver Curtis faces penalties of up to $220,000 in fines and/or five years jail.
The same crime committed today would lead to a jail sentence of up to 10 years.
One interesting feature of the Parakeelia issue is;
The Libs, “Champion of Business” is shunning business by providing this service in house,
whilst
Labor, “At War with Business” is using an actual third party business for these services.
🙂
Pat O’Neill brings billboards down
Labor candidate for the seat of Brisbane, Pat O’Neill, has given in to pressure from the defence force to remove billboards featuring him in his army uniform.
Mr O’Neill on Friday said he had agreed to comply with the ADF’s direction because the attention was distracting from his election campaign.
“I got out of the army to talk about issues and policy and to make the country better,” he told AAP on Friday.
“I just want to avoid distractions like this, which I don’t think add to the conversation.”
http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/qld-candidate-to-remove-army-advertising/news-story/8b3145124f6740fe214301ff8600449e
Bemused @ 10.36 am: Age of candidates is an interesting issue. If they have no chance of being elected, their age doesn’t really matter. But for major party candidates, I’d have to say that it worries me how many people go into politics these days having just been to school, then uni, then political activism. Look at some of the beauties the IPA has generated lately. It’s not a hard and fast rule, but too many student politicians on the make have a rigidly oversimplified view of the world, which a few years and a bit of wider experience could sometimes mitigate.
The ex-Defence people must feel a bit miffed that they can’t even be shown in old photos in uniform, while it’s apparently OK for the AFP to inject themselves into the campaign in full battle dress.
So , how do the IPA feel about the established principle applied to other crimes ?
You get busted, you go to jail, AND the proceeds of crime are forfeit.
There is really no reason that principle should not apply to white collar crime.
IPA are just arseholes.
I hope with the ALP talking about budget repair that they start hammering the term “Structural Deficit”, and that the L-NP are using window dressing for the short term.
The ALP are grandfathering negative gearing, which will have ongoing benefits to the budget that will grow as less claims are made over time. The L-NP are proposing Company tax cuts that balloon over time, if they are ever delivered.
briefly @ #1307 Friday, June 10, 2016 at 10:07 am
The key thing to understand about these people is that it doesn’t matter how much you concede and submit to them, how much wealth and power they get. It is never enough to sate their lusts and fill the void in their heads and hearts.
They suffer the worst psychological and moral pathology of all, they have never grasped the concept of ‘enough’. They respect no lines in the sand. They always crave more conquests. Appeasement doesn’t work, they just regard that as a contemptible weakness to be ruthlessly exploited.
This is why they have to be endlessly fought, tooth and nail, if the average person is to have any chance at a half decent life.
Small business leaders are being disingenuous. “We had a good relationship with Gillard, what happened?” What happened is that they turned on Gillard and threw in with Abbott’s populist lies and expects ALP to just smile?
pedant @ #1336 Friday, June 10, 2016 at 11:03 am
I agree.
What you are looking for is people from diverse backgrounds with all sorts of ‘life experience’ to bring to the Parliament.
I think Labor has not done too badly on this except we have an over representation of lawyers.
The IPA is in a sense the ‘father’ of the Liberal Party (or perhaps the ‘Godfather’), having brought it together from the ruins of the old United Australia Party in 1943.
The IPA is a policy think tank established by Australia’s large corporations to define policies that represent and advance their interests. They want to create an Australia that supports and advances their interests. And the IPA begat the Liberal party to promote these interests and enshrine them is the law of the land.
One could argue that large corporations play a similar role on the conservative side of politics that the unions play in Labor. The IPA is a sort of ACTU for Corporate Australia. Unlike Labor, the links aren’t formal but they’re there.
None of this is a crime, of course. Corporate Australia has every right to promote its interests. We just need to recognise it for what is is.
One big difference: it’s OK, in fact de riguer, to attack unions and their leaders, to accuse them of laziness, corruption, greed and criminality on flimsy evidence (or no evidence). There are bad apples, as there are in any large group. Corporate Australia also has them, as many egregious examples amply attest. Unlike corporate miscreants, no union leader ever robbed a member or anyone else of their life savings.
However, to point this out, to criticise corporations and their leaders, to suggest that they should pay their fair share of tax, in fact even to oppose more generous tax arrangements for them, is ‘class warfare’.
question @ #1339 Friday, June 10, 2016 at 11:06 am
Yes, I don’t care how much middle-class welfare they get rid of. Preferably all of it. But that will take time and there will be some tough battles.
Steve777: Today’s Liberal Party seems particularly beholden to the IPA and its mode of thinking, but it wasn’t always so. Menzies was the real creator of the Liberal Party, and he always had at least a skepticism about big business and its motives, not to mention a real contempt for people who were motivated solely by greed. Small business were much more his natural constituency, and of course like most of the leaders of his time he was a non-ideological Keynesian, not a free-market fanatic.
Briefly @ 1306
https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2016/06/08/bludgertrack-50-1-49-9-labor-2-2/comment-page-27/#comment-2413060
When you are dealing with some “2GB Liberals” all civility goes out the window. If you know what I mean. 😉
I have finally found a link to the ALP Booklet ’10-year plan for Australia’s economy’ that I have been reading about. It is here: https://cdn.australianlabor.com.au/documents/10-Year-Plan-for-Australias-Economy.pdf
The Vic Labor Emerg Services Minister resigning is a free kick in front of goal for the Libs.
I am lucky to have a good local member, Kate Ellis.
Sadly, the SA Labor Party rarely puts up a strong Senate team – one of our country stalwarts like Bill Hender or Ben Browne – would do wonders for the ticket, but this election we have plenty of choices overall.
Penny Wong rightly heads the Labor team. Don Farrell at No 2 will not please social progressives but he’s a loyal sort of bloke who is owed plenty of favours. Not much after those two.
But there’s always the Greens (Sarah Hanson-Young is as controversial as you’ll get!) and the X team. Nick’s worthwhile but don’t know about his mates. Animal Lib is one of my favourites. Bob Day’s a pleasant fellow with awful policies. Cory Bernadi’s an awful fellow with awful policies. And so it goes.
Should be interesting voting below the line.
I was contacted by Reachtel last night. From the questions it was federal. I live in Gilmore