Good news and bad news for both sides this evening courtesy of the latest ReachTEL polls for the Seven Network, which have Labor opening up a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred nationally, but trailing 54-46 in the fairly crucial Liberal-held Victorian marginal of Corangamite. The national poll has the Coalition down 1.5% to 41.1%, Labor down 0.1% to 36.5%, the Greens down 0.3% to 9.6% and the Nick Xenophon Team back up to 4.3% after an anomalous drop from 4.2% to 2.7% last time. This gives Labor a two-party lead of 52-48 after three successive results of 50-50. It should be noted that this was achieved from a heavy flow of respondent-allocated preferences to Labor: using preference flows from 2013, and folding the Nick Xenophon Team into a generic “others” category, the result would be around 50.6-49.4. Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are stable: combined very good and good is up 0.8% to 29.4%, combined poor plus very poor is up 1.7% to 36.8%. Bill Shorten’s improving trend continues, with very good plus good up 1.2% to 29.1% and poor plus very poor down 1.5% to 36.9%. Preferred prime minister continues a slow narrowing trend, now at 54.9-45.1 in favour of Turnbull compared with 55.6-44.4 last time. The automated phone poll was conducted last night from a sample of 2700.
The Corangamite poll is quite a different matter, with Liberal member Sarah Henderson credited with 54-46 lead on two-party preferred, and 48.3% of the primary vote when a forced preference question for the 7.7% undecided is included with the result. Both numbers are exactly identical to the result in 2013, when she unseated Labor’s Darren Cheeseman with a 4.2% swing. The primary votes also record Labor losing ground to the Greens, with Labor on 27.1% and the Greens on 15.0%, compared with 32.0% and 11.9% at the election. This poll was also conducted last night, from a sample of 770.
Shorten getting better as this goes along.
Malpractice stumbling badly.
Turnbull should be worried about what he is going to do, not what Labor is going to do.
c@tmomma @ #1636 Sunday, May 29, 2016 at 7:58 pm
WTF??? Tax is paid on profit.
Turnbull trying to reheat the ‘School Kids Bonus’ backflip by Labor line.
Cayman’s Mal the Malleable probably should know that ‘post election uncertainty’ is much greater risk for Malcolm the Malleable than it is for Big Bad Bill.
Good line by Bill: “I’m no clearer at the end of that question than at the beginning.”
[JimmyDoyle
Sunday, May 29, 2016 at 7:54 pm
I despair at the fact that Malcolm seems incapable of understanding that good education and good healthcare underpin economic growth.]
So do I.
bemused @ #1654 Sunday, May 29, 2016 at 8:05 pm
And if the rate goes down you pay less tax! Equals more money in the pocket.
LoL! this is where the Libs more complex position on super makes Mal sound like a spiv.
Ha Ha Bill uses the IPA to back his point.
Are the Government’s super changes ‘not at all’ retrospective?
ABC Fact Check says: ‘Ehhh…sort of…’
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-26/fact-check–government-super-changes/7422540
Ruawake @ 2010
Would that be classed as a zinger from Bill?
I thought the Libs supported, passionately, the Rudd changes to the Howard border protection stuff.
Mal speaks to the gallery. Bill speaks to voters.
One thing I have noticed is that both leaders keep repeating lines which have been said 100 times before. As opposed to giving new responses to any question asked.
Mal making up as he goes along.
[One thing I have noticed is that both leaders keep repeating lines which have been said 100 times before. As opposed to giving new responses to any question asked.]
I agree neither of them have had the courage to leave the focus group tested path.
“The people smugglers are using social media”.. Seriously? FFS, this bloke is a train wreck!
At a guess I’d say Turnbull has had 30% more time than Shorten.
????? Is this an ALP leader having a win on AS ????
Brilliant response from Shorten on boats!!
david rivers @ #1669 Sunday, May 29, 2016 at 8:15 pm
I would think there’s more than one people smuggler out there.
Bill firing up against Turnbull’s slur against Labor’s Asylum Seeker policy.
Bill’s just got under his skin.
😉
“Time will tell’ — Malcolm concedes that Labor will be in government.
I lead my party, your party leads you …. Bill wins.
Bill just said scoreboard on cheap shots. 🙂
Shorten well into the groove here i think and has had his nasty pills as well.
“party leads you”…..
Turnbull is talking in a way that encourages people to envisageShorten as PM.
I’m not sure that’s a good thing for him to do …
Ouch Turnbull better get some ice on that burn – “I genuinely lead my party, but Malcolm Turnbull is genuinely led by his party.”
Turnbull at least having 40% more time but I guess that comes down to the unbiased moderator.
BK,
Not necessarily a bad thing.
Turnbull has an overwhelming urge to keep talking to prove he’s the smartest person in the room.
The problem for him is that he is verbose and waffles to fill the space. He’d be better off making fewer points and not talking as long.
“Bullshit Bingo” is the big winner tonight!
Bill is good; and Turnbull knows it.
If peoples mugglers are using social media they must have a Facebook page. How many likes does it have?
So in this debate we’ve had a scare campaign on tax, a scare campaign on boats, and a scare campaign on climate change – Mal’s transformation into Tony Abbott is complete.
NBN question now please!
*smugglers, of course …. grrrrr
Good point that Climate Change = Extreme Weather Events
Turnbull physically winced when Shorten asks where the old Malcolm’s gone. He’s losing it.
@Adrian – Turnbull is just taking all of his time, Shorten is keeping to shorter and sharper answers.
So far, I expect the CPG will award the win to Turnbull … when I think this was a story of two halves, Turnbull was more comfortable in the first half and Shorten was better later.
Ok, so Mal should know by now that Shorten has come prepared to respond to what he says with a put down / “zinger”…followed up by actual policy discussion. And Mal is failing, cant adapt quickly enough.
Vanity is so fragile at times!
Shorten is pitching to the electorate. Turnbull is just arguing with the moderator.
‘There is a cost to NOT acting on Climate Change.’
IMHO the rules for the debate allowed too much time for answers.
Love to know what the plan is.
Mal lost he didn’t take the opportunity to push his policies.. oh sorry he hasn’t got any.
What ‘great Health Services’!?! Not if the Coalition are re-elected.