Newspoll and BludgerTrack broken down

Newspoll breakdowns offer more evidence of a bruising swing against the Coalition in Western Australia, and a desertion of voters from both major parties in South Australia.

UPDATE (Roy Morgan): The latest fortnightly result from Roy Morgan has the Coalition up a point to 37.5%, Labor down half to 32.5%, the Greens down 2.5% to 13% and the Nick Xenophon Team steady at 5%, and otherwise remains remarkable for the size of the non-major party vote. The headline respondent-allocated two-party measure has Labor leading 51-49, down from 52.5 last time, but the shift on previous election preferences is more modest, from 52-48 to 51.5-48.5. The poll release also informs us that the Nick Xenophon Team was recorded at 26.5% in South Australia, ahead of Labor on 25%, with the Liberals on 31%. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 3099.

The Australian today brings us state breakdowns aggregated from the last four Newspoll surveys going back to the start of April, pointing to two-party swings of around 3% in New South Wales and Victoria, 6% in Queensland and 7% in Western Australia, but no swing at all in South Australia – albeit that the picture there is almost certainly confused by a Nick Xenophon Team-fuelled 34% for “others”. I have taken the opportunity to put together one of my occasional detailed state breakdowns inclusive of the Newspoll numbers, together with the various other published and unpublished state-level polling available to me. The key point of interest so far as the primary vote is concerned is the others vote in South Australia, which is a little more modest than Newspoll at 22.8%, but has risen quite dramatically since the start of the year. For charts to go with the following tables, see here.


Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,361 thoughts on “Newspoll and BludgerTrack broken down”

  1. Shelton’s Nazi comments are so bizarre because, uh, surely he’s aware of how the Nazis felt about LGBT people…?

    No surprises about the Liberals disendorsing Jermyn, and a nice gift to Rob Mitchell, who’s always seemed like a pretty decent bloke. I’m really surprised that they mucked up their preselection that badly in such a winnable seat – this kind of meltdown is the thing you’d normally expect from someone running for, like, Maribyrnong or Calwell or somebody else where they’re lucky to find a candidate with a pulse.

  2. erasmus @ #1356 Wednesday, June 1, 2016 at 4:20 am

    Yesterday, the New Zealand Greens and Labour signed an agreement to work cooperatively together.
    Enough said.
    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    The NZ Parliament is quite different to the Australian Parliament…

    There are 119 MP’s, of whom just 32 are Labour. It’s painfully clear what happens when the non-Conservative vote becomes divided against itself, as has occurred in NZ.

  3. Erasmus @ #1356 Wednesday, June 1, 2016 at 4:20 am

    Yesterday, the New Zealand Greens and Labour signed an agreement to work cooperatively together.
    Enough said.
    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    Yes, but the NZ voting system is different to the Australian system in that they use MMP, in which NZ voters vote twice – one for a party list tied to their nationwide vote, and another for a candidate in the 71 electorates.

    The second vote is important in this case: the electorate vote is a FPTP system, meaning that there is no preferential voting (so candidates with smaller vote shares will act as spoilers for candidates with larger vote shares) and a candidate doesn’t need over 50% of the vote to win; they just need the plurality (the most votes) to win.

    Thus, it makes sense for the NZ Labour and Green parties to co-operate their campaigns; it maximizes the number of electorates they can win, and minimizes the chance of either party becoming a spoiler to the other.

  4. Thanks, Briefly and Millenial.
    It makes sense for the anti-conservative forces to work together to kick this mob out.
    Terrifying to think how much more damage they can do with another term.

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