Newspoll and BludgerTrack broken down

Newspoll breakdowns offer more evidence of a bruising swing against the Coalition in Western Australia, and a desertion of voters from both major parties in South Australia.

UPDATE (Roy Morgan): The latest fortnightly result from Roy Morgan has the Coalition up a point to 37.5%, Labor down half to 32.5%, the Greens down 2.5% to 13% and the Nick Xenophon Team steady at 5%, and otherwise remains remarkable for the size of the non-major party vote. The headline respondent-allocated two-party measure has Labor leading 51-49, down from 52.5 last time, but the shift on previous election preferences is more modest, from 52-48 to 51.5-48.5. The poll release also informs us that the Nick Xenophon Team was recorded at 26.5% in South Australia, ahead of Labor on 25%, with the Liberals on 31%. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 3099.

The Australian today brings us state breakdowns aggregated from the last four Newspoll surveys going back to the start of April, pointing to two-party swings of around 3% in New South Wales and Victoria, 6% in Queensland and 7% in Western Australia, but no swing at all in South Australia – albeit that the picture there is almost certainly confused by a Nick Xenophon Team-fuelled 34% for “others”. I have taken the opportunity to put together one of my occasional detailed state breakdowns inclusive of the Newspoll numbers, together with the various other published and unpublished state-level polling available to me. The key point of interest so far as the primary vote is concerned is the others vote in South Australia, which is a little more modest than Newspoll at 22.8%, but has risen quite dramatically since the start of the year. For charts to go with the following tables, see here.

bludgertrack-statetables-2016-05-30

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,361 comments on “Newspoll and BludgerTrack broken down”

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  1. And the Swedish have just delivered the news that the time he’s spent there doesn’t count.

    They’ve renewed the arrest warrant.

    I think we have seen the limit of Geoffrey Robertson and Jennifer Robinson’s talents.

  2. Sorry – that should have been MERS, not MVE, in my post at 10:26.
    While distracting myself from despair at quantum poll fluctuations, I also note that almost all the ebola panic in Oz last year was generated from Queensland – not that I’m blaming dtt at all.

  3. Who expects labor will announce a low income tax cut as part of their policy?

    Not really. If they did anything like that it would be some kind of rebate.

    As mentioned somewhat above, they have Macklins families package to announce. that will be a fairly powerful one i think id they get their timing right.

  4. Dio and frednk, from the ER site;

    The response rate varies each week, but usually delivers 1000+ interviews. In theory, with a sample of this size, there is 95 per cent certainty that the results are within 3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire population had been polled. However, this assumes random sampling, which, because of non-response and less than 100% population coverage cannot be achieved in practice.

    http://www.essentialvision.com.au/about-this-poll

    So it appears that MOE would be 3% if random sampling was used, but does not (probably?) actually achieve this.

    Tom

  5. CTar1 @10:32:
    Zika has also been around for some time in both Africa & the Pacific (New Caledonia particularly), but the small number of ante-natal exposures meant that we missed the microcephalic signal in small population noise. It was only when zika got to critical ‘mass’ in the Aedes vector populations in areas of Brazil with large enough antenatal exposure, that the resultant microcephaly epidemic was noticed, and the sexual, vertical and neurotropic transmission components of zikavirus pathogenesis could be worked out. I still don’t think zika is a significant threat to visitors to the Olympics – or, indeed Brazil. Climate stress (and or President Drumpf) are much more real and present dangers than zika.

  6. ctar1 @ #1306 Tuesday, May 31, 2016 at 10:45 pm

    C@
    I know Jenn. Very intelligent but common sense not always prevail.

    I’m sure she is a lovely, intelligent woman. However, the point I was trying to make was that even the most illustrious of Human Rights Barristers have been unable to outwit the collective efforts of the legal fraternities of Sweden, the UK and the USA working against them. 🙂

  7. The man charged over racist comments directed at @NovaPeris was a member of the NSW Liberal Party. He’s since been stripped of membership.

  8. One wonders if the Zika Virus has been around a long time. I keep reflecting back on to Tod Browning’s film ‘Freaks’ when I see the microcephalic babies. And that was made in 1932.

    Of course I realise there is no one cause of microcephaly.

  9. C@

    It cost her a partnership in a Golden Mile law firm. The one she was working for merged with another. One of the stipulations was that she’d be ‘gone’.

  10. http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/australian-christian-lobby-likens-gay-marriage-and-safe-schools-to-unthinkable-nazi-atrocities-20160531-gp8ff2.html

    Lyle Shelton, paraphrased: “I’m not comparing SSM and transgender acceptance to Nazis, I promise. Really, no comparison to Nazis here. But I just want to say that the Safe Schools program is an awful lot like Germany in the 1930s, where people didn’t stop awful things happening. But I’m definitely not talking Nazis here, absolutely no way. I know all my gay friends (that I totally have) are going to say that I’m comparing them to Nazis, but I’m really not. Let me just get a mention of the Holocaust in there – kind of like SSM, don’t you think? Except not! Great. Nazis Nazis Nazis. Now, did you get the part where I didn’t compare anyone to Nazis?”

    Headline: “Australian Christian Lobby likens gay marriage and Safe Schools to ‘unthinkable’ Nazi atrocities”.

    Sometimes you really have to just marvel at the stupidity of these people. What on earth was that supposed to achieve?

  11. rod hagen @ #1143 Tuesday, May 31, 2016 at 7:15 pm

    Briefly: “Rod Hagen…the G’s are not an ally. They are an opponent. For the’000th time….” Aren’t an ally of whom, Briefly? I reckon both the ALP and the Greens are allies of mine. Sorry, but I’ve yet to see anything much (beyond the appalling deBruyn led absurdities) that suggest either are my enemy. I like you both, mostly!

    Rod, you may regard both parties as likeable. But be under no illusion. The Professional G’s hate Labor and never tire of pointing out the many ways in which Labor may amend its ways.

    As for Labor, we regard the G’s as totally untrustworthy.

  12. greensborough growler @ #1313 Tuesday, May 31, 2016 at 10:57 pm

    The man charged over racist comments directed at @NovaPeris was a member of the NSW Liberal Party. He’s since been stripped of membership.

    The Liberal Party still organised with the Murdoch media mafia to have his sob story of being hacked splashed onto today’s local paper front page. That’s quick work. Just goes to show how much collusion there is between the two of them. Most of the local electorate will fall for the spin too I believe.

  13. ctar1 @ #1316 Tuesday, May 31, 2016 at 10:59 pm

    C@
    It cost her a partnership in a Golden Mile law firm. The one she was working for merged with another. One of the stipulations was that she’d be ‘gone’.

    Yes I can believe that. A lot of law firms are not impressed by the campaigning of some of their kind outside the court arena.

  14. Victoria
    Interesting but from the peasant who put the words into the mouth of the US of A’s worst eva president and all round global disaster George Dubya.

  15. I would not worry all that much about Essential, until or unless it is backed up by further poling. We have seen before how a one week sample can throw it’s numbers, only to rebalance over the following couple of weeks. Important to remember too that in that period we also had Reachtel continue trending towards Labor.

    On Latham and his 2004 comparisons; I have had a look back over poling during the 2004 campaign. Yes, it is true that Newspoll was extremely favourable to Labor during that time; but it and Morgan were alone. Other polls were showing a comfortable win for the Coalition. Newspoll’s record of reliability since 2004 has been on the whole very good.

  16. When you talk about Nazis and gays, there is only one link that can be made. And it does not reflect well on opponents of marriage equality.

  17. poroti

    And it should be noted that Dubya was merely an obedient puppet. Trump is all together a different beast. A despicable character

  18. Briefly, the Greens are, of course, an opponent during the election campaign but they’ll be the best ally Labor can find in the Parliament and the party will certaianly need allies in the Senate and might need them in the House of Reps. And regarding someone as “totally untrustworthy” because they’ve occasionally voted against you is the silliest sort of “are ya for me or agin me?” nonsense that you’d hear outside of an old western movie.

  19. By the by, I take exception to the inference she’s drawn that to dispute her idiocy was to display some kind of racism. This is a disgraceful allegation, even by her usual low standards of deprecation and insult. If there was any racism going round when dtt was raving about ebola, it was issued by her. As I recall, she repeatedly cast doubt on the reported infection rates posted by Liberia. This was not because she could cite any reason to doubt the numbers. It was simply because they were moving a contrary direction to the one she’d been predicting. As it turned out, the reports were correct. dtt was wrong.

    dtt was simply trying to parade an absurd claim to special knowledge. By her lights, it is the fault of her interlocutors that her predictions were so completely amiss. Now, many months in arrears, she is trying to re-fabricate her alarmism. What a complete goose she is.

  20. greensborough growler @ #1331 Tuesday, May 31, 2016 at 11:13 pm

    Apparently, the Libs have sacked their candidate in McEwan, Chris Jermyn.

    And the perverse effect of that will be that people are relieved and the Liberals will obtain a positive benefit.

    Unlike if it was a Labor candidate. Then people maintain the outrage towards Labor for picking a candidate like that. So I have observed.

  21. Bit of good news from Sportsbet, from a pro Labor standpoint.
    Labor odds of winning the following seats better than yesterday – Eden Monaro, Dobell, Petrie.

  22. The Coalition very confident about retaining Brisbane, even though he’s a new candidate. Theresa Gambaro obviously didn’t have a great personal vote there.

  23. hwombat

    I appreciate that you ARE a medico, and I repect your views, however even you will concede that the CDC got it wrong at first. I actually find comparing epidemics lke MERS with Ebola part of the problem and in a way the REASON, I feared the excess complacency of our medical services.

    The ovbious differences that I see are:
    1. the mortality rate
    2. the sheer horror of the disease
    3. Possibly the infectivity at close quarters (I defer to your expertise here say comaring close quaters infectivity

  24. I’m well known on this blog for my opposition to Homosexual Marriage. I have explained my reasons before and am not interested in repeating them here right now.

    I repudiate what Shelton is saying without compunction.

    However, I have also been subject to the same commentary on this blog by dickheads like Guytaur who have accused me of being a Nazi and on one memorable occasion of being in favour of turning homosexuals in to biscuits.

    None of that has ever been retracted.

    So, the point is that there are dickheads on all sides of this argument. When you resort to such stupidities it doesn’t do any one any favours.

  25. RHWombat

    You can call me old fashioned and you would be right, but I would be much more comfortable if we had kept our quarantine stations. I am not really convinced that we are well set up to seriously isolate a largish number of people in a real epidemic.

    A question for you as a “expert.” Is hospital air conditioning a plus or minus in an epidemic situation, if there is any potential for spread via air borne route. Obviously it depends on the survival time, so let us say compare anthrax versus Ebola (on the two extremes of survival time in air)

    Anyway changing tack a little, I assume they are working to fast track a Zika vaccine

  26. Evan

    I am wondering if the Libs have focus group poling that suggests that the first openly gay LIBERAL candidate may get a stronger than usual following. The Labor candidate is an openly gay army officer, which must take a bit of courage.

  27. Sportspunter has 2 favourite bets on their site . 1. A coalition win 81 to 85 seats $3.80. 2. A hung parliament also $3.80

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