Newspoll and BludgerTrack broken down

Newspoll breakdowns offer more evidence of a bruising swing against the Coalition in Western Australia, and a desertion of voters from both major parties in South Australia.

UPDATE (Roy Morgan): The latest fortnightly result from Roy Morgan has the Coalition up a point to 37.5%, Labor down half to 32.5%, the Greens down 2.5% to 13% and the Nick Xenophon Team steady at 5%, and otherwise remains remarkable for the size of the non-major party vote. The headline respondent-allocated two-party measure has Labor leading 51-49, down from 52.5 last time, but the shift on previous election preferences is more modest, from 52-48 to 51.5-48.5. The poll release also informs us that the Nick Xenophon Team was recorded at 26.5% in South Australia, ahead of Labor on 25%, with the Liberals on 31%. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 3099.

The Australian today brings us state breakdowns aggregated from the last four Newspoll surveys going back to the start of April, pointing to two-party swings of around 3% in New South Wales and Victoria, 6% in Queensland and 7% in Western Australia, but no swing at all in South Australia – albeit that the picture there is almost certainly confused by a Nick Xenophon Team-fuelled 34% for “others”. I have taken the opportunity to put together one of my occasional detailed state breakdowns inclusive of the Newspoll numbers, together with the various other published and unpublished state-level polling available to me. The key point of interest so far as the primary vote is concerned is the others vote in South Australia, which is a little more modest than Newspoll at 22.8%, but has risen quite dramatically since the start of the year. For charts to go with the following tables, see here.

bludgertrack-statetables-2016-05-30

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,361 comments on “Newspoll and BludgerTrack broken down”

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  3. Now if Greens voters want to take the word of Di Natale that there is no difference between Labor and the Coalition and therefore a vote for one is as good as a vote for the other

    RDN doesn’t say such words.

  5. I must have missed a post somewhere – how the hell did Ebola get into the everlasting war between DTT and BW? STOP IT you two – we have an election campaign going on and the enemy is something that calls itself the Liberal Party.

  6. Confessions

    Please don’t break out in a tirade of abuse at me for expressing my opinion.

    I have no problems at all with McCarthy as the candidate, and her obvious close links to the NT I am well aware of.

    I was merely pondering WHETHER the fact she is not enrolled to vote in the NT will affect her ability to be the candidate, seeing that the time for being on the relevant rolls is now closed.

    I’m not aufait with the electoral machinations of it all. That’s the point I was trying to make, somewhat inelegantly, I suppose.

    I hope this oversight to re-enrol in the NT does not prevent her from being the candidate.

  7. Tom
    [Dio, through this methodology, although I assume that the original set of respondents was randomly selected, it is no longer probability sampling as the poll is now limited to a subset of those original group of respondents. which to my understanding no longer allows for the estimation of sampling error.]
    The original sample wasn’t random as it was consciously chosen from the whole population based on lots of criteria, mainly a willingness to use a computer to enter opinions.
    I’m not sure how they allow for evolution of the pool; there would have been a number of people who drop out (which would leave a biased pool of people who are in for the long haul) and the pool would get older. I assume ER must “refresh” the pool but I think they would have to start with a completely new sample every now and then to avoid methodological problems.
    fred
    No sample of political polling is truly random as there should be an equal chance of including any voter in the sample. It’s nothing like that as you have to answer a phone and talk to a pollster so they exclude a lot of the population. Obviously there are ways of allowing for the biases but the samples are far from random.

  9. Jack

    For some bizarre reason whenever i make a post sort of suggesting that the Labor Green war be put on the shelf, Boewar, Briefly and bemused all mention Ebola. It is tiresome and juvenile.

  10. Feeney,. thanks to the nice people who run Austlii we can all look up the Electoral Act these days – it’s not hidden away in law libraries. Eligibilty of candidates is in s 163:
    Qualifications for nomination
    (1) A person who:
    (a) has reached the age of 18 years;
    (b) is an Australian citizen; and
    (c) is either:
    (i) an elector entitled to vote at a House of Representatives election; or
    (ii) a person qualified to become such an elector;
    is qualified to be elected as a Senator or a member of the House of Representatives.
    (2) A person is not entitled to be nominated for election as a Senator or a member of the House of Representatives unless the person is qualified under subsection (1).

  11. The issue that Sales was using to try to generate gotchas was Bill’s publicly-voiced opinion that Trump is crazy.
    Should Trump become POTUS and Shorten become PM, would this opinion damage the sacred alliance between the US and Oz, sweetly asked Sales.
    Plibers, who is maturing rapidly, did point out that Trump’s voiced opinions would represent a significant series of challenges for Australia.

  12. Feeney:

    Not breaking out in abuse at all, just stating it like it is. You can look this shit up with McCarthy, it isn’t a state secret. In fact if more Laborites bothered to do some Googling instead of having themselves hissy fits we may have been spared the righteous indignation coming from some commenters this afternoon.

  14. (Continued) You’ll note that there is no requirement to be enrolled (or eligible to be enrolled) in the Division or even the State for which you’re a candidate. I could run against Malcum in Wentworth if I wanted to. Now I think of it, what a good idea…

  15. Jack A Randa

    Yes, thanks for the clarification on that enrolment point.
    At least you understand the point I was trying to make.
    I have no problems at all with McCarthy as the candidate. She obviously has had a stellar career in the NT, and may she again be part of it.

  16. jack a randa @ #1255 Tuesday, May 31, 2016 at 9:18 pm

    I must have missed a post somewhere – how the hell did Ebola get into the everlasting war between DTT and BW? STOP IT you two – we have an election campaign going on and the enemy is something that calls itself the Liberal Party.

    #1 You are not the moderator, and do not control the discussion.
    #2 They are called threads, not rods, because they wander all over the place.
    #3 Get over it.
    #4 Ebola. Ebola. Ebola.

  17. An important point that Sales got repeatedly wrong, was that Shorten never actually said that Trump was crazy, but that some of his opinions were.
    But why let facts get in the way of a gotcha attempt.

  18. If Julian Assange could have been a Senator whilst living in a converted toilet in the Bolivian Embassy in London, England, then Malandrri Macarthy can be a Senator for the NT after moving back there from working for NITV in Sydney.

  20. C@

    If Julian Assange could have been a Senator whilst living in a converted toilet in the Bolivian Embassy in London, England, then Malandrri Macarthy can be a Senator for the NT after moving back there from working for NITV in Sydney.

    Well put.

  21. Why didn’t Leigh Sales have Julie Bishop on for a grilling? She was the goose of the day.

    But no. Bring up some irrelevant shit about a clearly unhinged Authoritarian megalomaniac from the United States instead.

  24. confessions @ #1262 Tuesday, May 31, 2016 at 9:25 pm

    Feeney:
    Not breaking out in abuse at all, just stating it like it is. You can look this shit up with McCarthy, it isn’t a state secret. In fact if more Laborites bothered to do some Googling instead of having themselves hissy fits we may have been spared the righteous indignation coming from some commenters this afternoon.

    Says she who is always wanting others to spoon feed her information.
    What a joke.


  28. Diogenes
    Tuesday, May 31, 2016 at 9:19 pm
    …..
    No sample of political polling is truly random as there should be an equal chance of including any voter in the sample. It’s nothing like that as you have to answer a phone and talk to a pollster so they exclude a lot of the population. Obviously there are ways of allowing for the biases but the samples are far from random.

    I agree; my initial point still applies; there are errors in the error estimates; polls should be treated with caution.

  29. GG

    And the Swedish have just delivered the news that the time he’s spent there doesn’t count.

    They’ve renewed the arrest warrant.

  31. Who expects labor will announce a low income tax cut as part of their policy?

    It would only need to be ‘small’, but would win the equality argument. Also may help with the family vote that was damaged this week over the school kids bonus. (The reason I thought polls would not be in labor’s fav this week)

  34. Jay Hender

    The school kids bonus was obviously very popular. Families came to rely on it to help with expenses at beginning of the school year. I had opined this morning that this may indeed have affected the polls this week.

  35. Jay Hender

    Most strange. Whilst reading your post I noticed that above your comment was “Your comment is awaiting moderation. “

  36. I have no problems at all with McCarthy as the candidate. She obviously has had a stellar career in the NT, and may she again be part of it.

    Like I said it isn’t hard to look up her background.

    I know old school Labor men like you instinctively reject new Labor women,but can we at least see ho?w she performs before writing her off because you think a man would do better? Please?

  39. Jay Hender

    Should add that Jenny Macklin has been working on a comprehensive families package, yet to be announced

  40. confessions @ #1286 Tuesday, May 31, 2016 at 10:04 pm

    I have no problems at all with McCarthy as the candidate. She obviously has had a stellar career in the NT, and may she again be part of it.

    Like I said it isn’t hard to look up her background.
    I know old school Labor men like you instinctively reject new Labor women,but can we at least see ho?w she performs before writing her off because you think a man would do better? Please?

    No-one said anything remotely like what you are alleging.

  41. Crazy Latho with an interesting tidbit tonight

    Cited the 2004 Election where Newspoll constantly had Labor in front (and 50-50 on Election Day)

    Crazy Latho said that the ALP polling throughout the whole campaign showed them well behind and going backwards on Election Day

    “Don’t trust the public polling”

  44. dtt:
    It is not helpful for those of us who actually will have to deal with the next outbreak of ebola (or zika, or MVE , or…etc) to have your partially informed, anxious projections thrown out like desperate pleas for notice.

  45. Why are the ‘Christian’ right so un-christian/intolerant? Silly fucker didn’t even stop to think whose stance is closer to the Nazis (who was it who imprisoned and murdered thousands of homosexuals?). I reckon he’d back a book burning of safe schools materials.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/australian-christian-lobby-likens-gay-marriage-and-safe-schools-to-unthinkable-nazi-atrocities-20160531-gp8ff2.html

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persecution_of_homosexuals_in_Nazi_Germany_and_the_Holocaust

  46. Yes GG I was left wondering who the reporter was. Amy herself or someone else? If the ABC was there perhaps Jess van Vonderen – I’ve heard her ask the most penetrating, on-spot-putting, questions in the sweetest, almost girly, way. Whoever it was he/she’s better qualified to be the A-G than little Ian Walker. You could make the technical point that the operational independence of the police is not the same as the constitutional separation of powers, but Walker disn’t seem to know as much as he should about either principle.

  47. GG

    Excrutiating doesnt even begin to descibe it. Could he have dug a bigger hole for himself. It kinda reminded me of the Abbott Costello sketch, “Whose on first”

  48. jay hender @ #1281 Tuesday, May 31, 2016 at 10:00 pm

    Who expects labor will announce a low income tax cut as part of their policy?
    It would only need to be ‘small’, but would win the equality argument. Also may help with the family vote that was damaged this week over the school kids bonus. (The reason I thought polls would not be in labor’s fav this week)

    The budget problem with a ‘small’ tax cut at the bottom end of the scale is that it applies to all taxpayers and therefore will cost the budget a hell of a lot more than one that is limited to people whose taxable income is over $80k. This cost could be clawed back at the higher end by introducing a complementary increase in the marginal rates above a certain amount, but it would still cost a fortune because there are so many more lower income taxpayers and would be politically unsellable in the current climate.

    Labor are best doing what they propose, which is to reinvest funds in a social wage covering health, education and myriad of other areas of expenditure which disproportionately help poor and lower income people.

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