Newspoll and BludgerTrack broken down

Newspoll breakdowns offer more evidence of a bruising swing against the Coalition in Western Australia, and a desertion of voters from both major parties in South Australia.

UPDATE (Roy Morgan): The latest fortnightly result from Roy Morgan has the Coalition up a point to 37.5%, Labor down half to 32.5%, the Greens down 2.5% to 13% and the Nick Xenophon Team steady at 5%, and otherwise remains remarkable for the size of the non-major party vote. The headline respondent-allocated two-party measure has Labor leading 51-49, down from 52.5 last time, but the shift on previous election preferences is more modest, from 52-48 to 51.5-48.5. The poll release also informs us that the Nick Xenophon Team was recorded at 26.5% in South Australia, ahead of Labor on 25%, with the Liberals on 31%. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 3099.

The Australian today brings us state breakdowns aggregated from the last four Newspoll surveys going back to the start of April, pointing to two-party swings of around 3% in New South Wales and Victoria, 6% in Queensland and 7% in Western Australia, but no swing at all in South Australia – albeit that the picture there is almost certainly confused by a Nick Xenophon Team-fuelled 34% for “others”. I have taken the opportunity to put together one of my occasional detailed state breakdowns inclusive of the Newspoll numbers, together with the various other published and unpublished state-level polling available to me. The key point of interest so far as the primary vote is concerned is the others vote in South Australia, which is a little more modest than Newspoll at 22.8%, but has risen quite dramatically since the start of the year. For charts to go with the following tables, see here.

bludgertrack-statetables-2016-05-30

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,361 comments on “Newspoll and BludgerTrack broken down”

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  1. Sounds very familiar to the Liberal con ran in Australia.

    An aside: In part this is surely a partisan thing. Over the years, polls have generally, although not universally, shown Republicans trusted over Democrats to manage the economy, even though the economy has consistently performed better under Democratic presidents. But Republicans are much better at promoting legends — for example, by constantly hyping economic and jobs growth under Ronald Reagan, even though the Reagan record was easily surpassed under Bill Clinton.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/27/opinion/trumps-delusions-of-competence.html?WT.mc_id=2016-MAY-OTB-INTL_AUD_DEV-0510-0531&WT.mc_ev=click&ad-keywords=IntlAudDev&_r=0

  2. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Mark Kenny suggests we’ll have to pay big in order to stop Morrison’s trickledown economics from sending the budget backwards.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-the-potential-problem-with-the-turnbull-governments-company-tax-claims-20160529-gp6ika.html
    Ross Gittins on how NOT to cut government spending. Screwing the politically defenceless is one wat to not do it he says.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/how-not-to-reduce-government-spending-20160528-gp639z.html
    The incoming AMA president says that GPs are near breaking point.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/may/29/gps-are-at-breaking-point-new-ama-president-vows-to-fight-medicare-freeze
    Yes, the debate WAS boring. That’s the way it was constructed to be.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-as-entertainment-the-leaders-debate-was-diabolical-but-it-got-even-worse-20160529-gp6q7v.html
    Lenore Taylor called it a waste of time.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/may/29/no-winners-election-debate-night-answers-scripted-ideas-untested
    Michelle Grattan agrees.
    https://theconversation.com/both-leaders-failed-to-engage-properly-with-the-occasion-or-the-public-60161
    George Williams and the “soft corruption” in Australian politics.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/we-need-a-national-plan-to-fight-corruption-at-the-heart-of-our-political-system-20160527-gp5v23.html
    Now Trump is a drought sceptic! He IS barking mad!
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/05/29/trump-tells-drought-plagued-californians-there-is-no-drought/
    Urban Wronski reviews week 3 of the campaign and declares that Turnbull really IS a Fizza.
    https://urbanwronski.com/2016/05/29/woeful-week-three-campaign-confirms-turnbulls-a-fizza/
    Tony Wright on “Desperately Seeking Sophie”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/searching-for-sophie-as-ms-mirabella-searches-for-indi-voters-20160527-gp53co.html

  3. Section 2 . . .

    Will questions on Trump’s taxation affairs dog his campaign?
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/tax-questions-dog-trumps-campaign-but-will-they-slow-it-down-20160529-gp6fr9.html
    Fair Work Australia is going after contract cleaning companies and those who use them.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/fair-work-ombudsman-sues-myer-cleaner-pioneer-personnel-over-alleged-underpay-20160529-gp6esl.html
    Charles Waterstreet boosts a Johnny Depp for President push.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/forget-trump-we-need-johnny-depp-for-us-president-20160527-gp5h14.html
    Should working hours be capped?
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace-relations/call-for-working-hours-to-be-capped-in-australia-to-improve-gender-balance-20160527-gp5xp4.html
    Tim Dick writes that the benefits of car horns are vastly overrated.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-benefits-of-the-car-horn-are-vastly-overrated-20160527-gp5v09.html
    Why our local lady Rebekha Sharkie fled the Liberals to join NXT. Google.
    /federal-election-2016/federal-election-2016-ditch-the-witch-drove-lib-to-team-xenophon/news-story/07db24888da00c19a5f7a13df688c08a
    Pre-school is no longer an optional extra.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/preschool-isnt-an-optional-extra-20160527-gp5uti.html
    The SMH wants the sun to shine in on the cloistered privilege of university colleges and their scandals.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/university-college-scandals-let-the-sun-shine-in-cloisters-of-privilege-20160526-gp4814.html
    “View from the Street” has a good look at the Senate.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-pauline-hanson-wont-get-into-the-senate-probably-20160529-gp6ilm.html
    Stephen Koukoulas on how the dismal WA economy is helping Labor federally.
    http://thekouk.com/blog/the-dismal-wa-economy-helps-labor-federally.html
    Customers have branded Telstra’s $25 compensation an insult.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2016/05/29/telstra-customers-slam-rubbish-compensation-offer/

  4. Section 3 . . . with Cartoon Corner

    Five reforms to make private health cover cheaper. Google.
    /opinion/five-reforms-to-make-private-health-insurance-cheaper-20160529-gp6e6a
    How Joe Hockey’s chauffeur ended up bankrupt.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/riot-cop-anti-uber-activist-hockeys-driver-bankrupt-the-many-faces-of-russell-howarth-20160527-gp5s16.html

    John Dyson – Have you been paying attention to the election campaign so far?

    Pat Campbell and superbugs.

    Mark David on publishing rules.

    David Rowe mourns the demise of the debate worm.

    Mark Knight has the scoop on Bronwyn Bishop’s SkyNews gig.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/6197ad0e1bb438a452e29e1110cc618b?width=1024&api_key=zw4msefggf9wdvqswdfuqnr5

  5. I don’t know what rubbish the Australian is pedalling about this poll compilation but 3aw announced on its 6.30 news this morning that the Liberals were in danger of losing 10 seats in NSW, 6 in Queensland and up to 25 across the country. My first thought was that there must be a new poll out showing a devastating drop in support for the coalition. But alas, William’s excellent work quickly put paid to that idea.

    Now I’m wondering if the Murdoch mob might be indulging in a bit of reverse psychology in the hope that it might frighten enough people off from voting Labor. Or perhaps it was just a cockup by someone at 3aw. Either way it was a big let down to find that nothing much has changed at all.

  6. William, who are the two Other MPs in Queensland?

    I know Katter is one of them, but who is the other?

    (If the other’s Palmer, surely he has to be dropped considering that he’s not even contesting Fairfax anymore.)

  7. Not meaning to cut your grass BK, but the big story of the day to me is the Joe Hockey one:

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/was-joe-hockey-taken-for-a-ride-the-taxi-driver-cabcharge-dockets-and-secret-investigation-20160529-gp6ki1.html

    File it under the category of ‘Gross Hypocrisy’. Also, ‘If you don’t like these standards, I have others’.

    Not only did Hockey cry crocodile tears for asylum seekers but now we know he confected his outrage at Peter Slipper over his Cabcharge dockets. No surprise there I guess.

  8. William,

    It’s interesting that Newspoll says 6% to ALP in Qld whilst BludgerTrack only 3.9%. The comparison of potential seat changes is 6 under Newspoll compared with 3 under BludgerTrack. This is within 1 seat of bringing about a hung parliament. There would also be potentially a further 4 seats where a margin of less than 0.1% 2PP separates the LNP & ALP.

  9. Pat Campbell and superbugs.

    This one also includes a spoiler reference to Game of Thrones.

    Mark David on publishing rules.

    Is there an article in reference to this?

  10. The swings are happening in the COUNTRY, not the CITY !!! (i feel i need to emphasis it because nobody notices)
    Look at the Captial/Non-Capital tallies since the last election;
    ALP up 0.1% since last election in capitals, and up 5.4% in non-capitals.
    None of these ‘poll of polls’ take the city country divide into account, but its easy to attempted as each seat is already classified by the AEC.

  11. Wow! Watching that Pachinko machine in ‘The View From the Street’ did my head in! So noisy and chaotic! I don’t know how the Japanese get addicted to them. It must be hell to work in a Pachinko parlour.

  12. Prediction – a lot of pollsters will get the SA result very wrong by using past election preferences.

    SA’s unemployment rate has gone through the roof under this government, and while 50 billion buys a lot of pork, that isn’t going to have any impact for a long time. The idea that it could have only a 1.8% swing seems pretty crazy to me.

    The use of past election preferences is good, when ‘others’ is made up of a large number of small parties. That way, one party getting more, fewer or different voters will be averaged out by an opposite change in a different minor party. If the shooters and fishers party collapses, then the votes instead go to the outdoor recreation party, and preference the same way.

    However, it is not going to work in this situation, where the number of others voters is different (many of them voted for one of the big 3 last election), and they are concentrated in one party. That’s why few pollsters bundle Greens in with others for calculating preferences.

    @ William – do we have any data for a SA specific comparison of past election pref vs stated pref?

    Or, I know some pollsters ask who you voted for at last election? Any chance you have a secret source of data that could say where NXT voters are coming from?

  13. Morning bludgers

    There should be another debate before election. Not in the format as presented last night. It was crap. It should be like first debate of People’s forum, that the general public did not see.

  14. Scott Bales

    It’s obvious that anyone voting for X will put their preferred major above their non preferred. The AEC was able to – as they do for all such electorates – work out a 2PP for Liberal/Labor for the 2013 election for Indi, which was remarkably similar to the 2010 result.

    So preference flows don’t necessarily change that dramatically. If I, as a former traditionally Liberal voter (for example), decide I’m voting for X, there is a very high probability that I am still going to end up putting the Liberals above Labor.

    It will be interesting to see how many of those saying they’re going to vote X actually will when it comes to the crunch. If the election is seen as crucial, then many will change their mind at the last minute (the ‘wasted vote’ mindset).

    I throw in the “Julian Assange looks like winning a Senate seat in each state and will definitely win one in Victoria” polling prior to the last election, which resulted in hundreds of pages of speculation (here and elsewhere) as to how he could take up his Senate seat from the Ecuadorian embassy. The actual result was, er, very different from the polling.

  15. victoria @ #20 Monday, May 30, 2016 at 8:36 am

    Morning bludgers
    There should be another debate before election. Not in the format as presented last night. It was crap. It should be like first debate of People’s forum, that the general public did not see.

    I heard Paul Bongiorno say on Newsradio this morning that there may be another Peoples Forum debate on Sky but in Brisbane this time. With the emphasis on ‘may’.

  16. If Labor wins even 18 seats, the Liberals will collapse. Malcolm won’t have any authority (I know, how can you go from nil to worse?), the RWNJs will put down the loss of seats to not being RWNJ enough, the moderates will roll over in face of their relentless assaults, Mal will be rolled fairly quickly, and chaos will reign.

    Mal needs to win seats to assert his authority (not that he seems capable of arguing from a position of strength at the best of times). He loses seats, and he ceases to be a useful idiot.

    Labor on the other hand will stick with Shorten in such a scenario. They will continue with largely the policies already announced (why wouldn’t they) even if they do the traditional ‘everything is under review’, which after all are simply tweaks on the RGR memes.

    This election is really a win-win for Labor…and if voters understand what the future holds, it will be a win.

  17. @ bug1 – not exactly.

    1) The breakdown is capitals vs non capitals. People in Woolongong will be happy to know that they live in the country.

    2) This is significantly due to the state by state breakdown. If you looked, in each state, at the swing in capital vs non capital, the difference would be significantly less, or possibly 0. This is because QLD and NSW have very high swings, and a very high proportion of their population is outside of the capital. By contrast, there is a very low swing in SA and VIc, which have a very urbanised population.

    WA is of course an exception, but with their population, they are not able to change the pattern.

    Below are the % of the state living in the Capital, and in brackets,ordering from swingiest stae (1) to least (5).

    So you do not have evidence that there is more of a swing in ‘country’ NSW than Sydney, or in ‘country’ SA than Adelaide.

    SA – 75% (5)
    VIC – 71% (4)
    WA – 71% (1)
    NSW – 57% (3)
    QLD – 45% (2)

  18. Scott, im talking about breaking the swing of a seats down to Capital and non-Capital for each state, i apologize for confusing you by using the term ‘country’

    Sure, the significance of Capital vs non-Capital swings in each state will vary (which i didnt try and estimate) so i introduce an error, but there is also a certain error by assuming a rural QLD seat will have the same state swing as a seat in the CAPITAL

  19. Morning all. Thanks BK for another solid effort this morning 🙂

    I’m assuming Sturt would be one of those 2 seats lost by the Libs in SA. Nighty night Pyne!

  20. Bug1:

    The swing to Labor in country WA seats won’t mean much seeing as they’re all held by Liberals on pretty solid margins. Don’t know about other states however – as you say this will vary state to state.

  21. I only caught the very last minute of Jon Faine with Ulhlmann. They were discussing the debate. Wtte that both leaders missed an opportunity as they are risk averse. It will only help the minor parties getting more support

  22. LOL

    Greens leader Richard Di Natale today unveiled his party’s Cleaner Energy plan, a $35m incentive scheme to encourage household cleaners and au pairs to get peddling and generate electricity.

    “Cleaner energy is an almost totally untapped source of power”, Di Natale said at the policy’s launch. “When you factor in the very low cost of employing cleaners, au pairs or nannies, we would be crazy not to generate power from them.”

    The new policy will see small generators attached to exercise bikes installed in the homes of anyone who has a cleaner. The power will then be funnelled directly into the national grid.

    Di Natale also added that as live-in cleaners would be generating their own power, they would require a much lower total package of benefits – typically $500 per week for an au pair boarding with families on hobby farms.

    http://www.theshovel.com.au/2016/05/29/greens-new-cleaner-energy-plan-to-harness-energy-of-household-cleaners-nannies/

  23. Here are the number of seats per state by the AEC’s classification
    IM = Inner Metropolitan
    OM = Outer Metropolitan
    P = Provincial
    R = Rural
    NSW: 15 IM, 11 OM, 7 P, 14 R
    QLD: 3 IM, 10 OM, 8 P, 9 R
    SA: 4 IM, 3 OM, 0 P, 4 R
    TAS: 1 IM, 1 OM, 1 P, 2 R
    VIC: 12 IM, 12 OM, 4 P, 9 R
    WA: 6 IM, 7 OM, 0 P, 3 R

  24. Good Morning

    Good to see Labor talking NBN and Great Barrier Reef today.

    Plibersek and Mike Kelly presser now.

  25. victoria

    None that I have heard of. Turnbull is trying Lindsay again today after the disaster that resulted in cancelling the street walk last time. Thats as close as he is getting

  26. I thought the format of last night’s debate was the big loser. The stage setting and lighting were atrocious and made both leaders look pale and unwell. The time for opening remarks needs to be trimmed back to a brief introduction only.

    The questions were totally predictable and were designed as gotcha opportunities for the journo questioners ..not real-life, here & now questions that viewers could identify with ..a ‘scenario’ question, say about an un-employed youth trying to get a job ..or a young couple desperately trying to get enough deposit for their first home, would have been good.

    Turnbull’s pitch is largely sterile and meaningless to the general population and wouldn’t have inspired anyone struggling with low wages ..a shit job ..lousy NBN ..no chance of buying a home ..chronically sick ..elderly, etc. Big business & wealthy will be happy ..small business MAY be conned even though there is no net benefit for them..

    Shorten’s pitch needs sharpening up, with more detail about what Labor will do NOW to grow the economy ..infrastructure spending ..renewables investment ..TAFE revival ..in short another stimulus programme to get the economy moving, and give hope to young un or under-employed youth. He leads a LABOR party ..we want LABOR solutions..

    The format was crap ..the moderator was crap ..the questions were crap ..the leaders were BOTH crap… FFS give the voters something to inspire them ..not this mind-numbing, dumbed-down, re-gurgitated, un-imaginative CRAP!!

  27. These are seats i get as changing hands by adding an additional 2.2% swing against the ALP in Inner and Outer Metropolitan seats, and 3.4% to the ALP in Provincial and Rural seats.

    Burt, Capricornia, Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Cowan, Robertson, Page, Corangamite, Solomon, Macquarie, Gilmore, Leichhardt, Lyons, Herbert, Hasluck, Flynn, Longman, Braddon

    This method has a different set of errors to consider, but the big picture of what im trying to capture is soothing of the anti-Labor vote that happened in the country last election.

  28. markjs

    Spot on about the debate format. It just shows how poor a moderator Uhlman is. No such problems when Kerry O Brien or Ray Martin was the moderator in past such style debates.

  29. confessions

    The debate was perhaps the most boring I have ever watched. FWIW Mr Shorten won it. The takeout wow from the debate was Paul Murray and Andrew Bolt saying Mr Shorten won.

  30. ‘“This is the first time I have heard of three weeks of planning for a street walk..’

    Well, it takes some time to make sure that it can happen without any actual voters being involved. (Look out for thinly disguised members of the press gallery posing as shoppers…)

  31. The questioning was done by members of the CPG, the moderator was president of the journalist club or whatever its called, and the audience was full of journalists.

    So now the journalists are complaining that the participants were ‘risk adverse’ – in other words they didn’t get any gotchas for today’s news.
    A large part of the problem was that it was a crap venue, crap format and generally crap questions, with a crap moderator.

    So now we are meant to be surprised that it was a crap debate?

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