UPDATE (Roy Morgan): The latest fortnightly result from Roy Morgan has the Coalition up a point to 37.5%, Labor down half to 32.5%, the Greens down 2.5% to 13% and the Nick Xenophon Team steady at 5%, and otherwise remains remarkable for the size of the non-major party vote. The headline respondent-allocated two-party measure has Labor leading 51-49, down from 52.5 last time, but the shift on previous election preferences is more modest, from 52-48 to 51.5-48.5. The poll release also informs us that the Nick Xenophon Team was recorded at 26.5% in South Australia, ahead of Labor on 25%, with the Liberals on 31%. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 3099.
The Australian today brings us state breakdowns aggregated from the last four Newspoll surveys going back to the start of April, pointing to two-party swings of around 3% in New South Wales and Victoria, 6% in Queensland and 7% in Western Australia, but no swing at all in South Australia – albeit that the picture there is almost certainly confused by a Nick Xenophon Team-fuelled 34% for “others”. I have taken the opportunity to put together one of my occasional detailed state breakdowns inclusive of the Newspoll numbers, together with the various other published and unpublished state-level polling available to me. The key point of interest so far as the primary vote is concerned is the others vote in South Australia, which is a little more modest than Newspoll at 22.8%, but has risen quite dramatically since the start of the year. For charts to go with the following tables, see here.
I found last night’s questions a problem just as much as the answers. Most questions had long preambles that gave both leaders a lot of wriggle room in answering. i.e. “given this and given that…”
The questions set false parameters and in a way, the journo was trying to lead the leader to answer in a certain way. Most unsatisfying because it set the leaders up for exactly the response we saw and also the criticisms after.
I can understand why the commentariat are a little unhappy with last nights debate.
Shorten won. Goes against their “narrative”.
And the format. It was stilted and rigid, although having watched it i think not as bad a s some of them are trying to make out.
The “town hall” format is more likely to throw up “events” which will give them easy column inches and interactions with “real” voters for them to comment on. Maybe the way to go is for there to be questions from both journo’s and audience?? Seems to me that the rules for last nights debate were risk averse, and largely designed to protect Malcolm. Shorten has shown he’s up for a bit of risk.
Be interesting to see if Malcolm will be out there doing other debates or hide and have to deal with “no ticker”, “out of touch”.
Karma
The LNP are being asked about governing with the Greens in coalition
Bug1, the obvious issue with your approach is that reachtel polling indicates there is a swing against ALP in Corangamite, not a swing towards.
Fess
What markjs said. You didnt miss much. The debate format was crap
happened to see old laughable L.Oaks this morning giving an account of last night must have mentioned boats and AS at least 5to 6 times, leaving the best to last when Karl or lisa said they need to get back to the peoples forum ,with punters asking the questions Mr oaks response was that they didn’t ask the right questions because no one asked about boats and the AS just about sums it really.
imacca
To me the media bias is shown by the fact that Mr Shorten’s Town Halls are not broadcast.
For exactly the reason you outline. The journalists are there the cameras are there the live link equipment is there. Its money all spent so why not use it?
Fess
And another thing for us political tragics. We follow what is going on very closely. For us it is even more pointless, as we have heard all this before.
Debates ought to fulfill the gap most voters have in knowing precisely what the parties are offering for the nation going forward
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/defence/the-sound-of-silence–why-germany-lost-its-subs-bid/news-story/4b3d69b49a8371e9837ed59e4f0faac2
I wonder who has leaked the information in this?? AFP to investigate i wonder??
I would actually suspect DCNS. Make sit less likely the Germans will be a fall back option if their bid goes pear shaped.
sortius: Two weeks in a row there’s been explosive allegations of LNP corruption, here’s hoping this week they aren’t ignored by CPG hacks #ausvotes
Ballot paper position could be critical in SA especially.
Put Liberal last!
Peoples forums as more risky for the leaders. But at the same time, they glean more information for voters to mull over. I guess Turnbull in particularly may have been pleased with last night’s outcome. Status quo
laurie oaks clip couldn’t play as it was buffering up. thanks malcolm
https://www.9now.com.au/today/2016/clip-ciot765xe00380jplmihzpfv7/b86e4809-12aa-46c6-b558-62964b24b04a
Good morning all,
Last night was not a debate and was not designed to be a debate.
It was simply a chance for both leaders to get their pitch together and practice their lines.
All the stars were aligned, however, for it to be a big win for Turnbull over the less articulate Shorten. That was the preconceived view of the MSM. When that did not happen the MSM sought cover in the dull and boring theme and who really cares.
Shorten got through his lines well and made no mistakes. The MSM are struggling to call Turnbull a winner so a pox on both houses is the verdict.
Win for Shorten .
Cheers.
TV ratings for last night – the debate came 10th, a national audience of 528,000.
In comparison, The Voice in the same timeslot got 1. 3 million nationally.
As I suspected, the only ones watching last night were political tragics like us, and the pollies on both sides. The average punter is more interested in reality shows – singing, or cooking, or home renovations
If Sky schedules another people’s forum type thing, closer to July 2, let’s hope that this time the ABC airs it, at least on News 24.
In fairness, News24 showed a bit of Shorten’s town hall meeting in Perth last Monday night.
Evan Parsons
Unless you watch politics as a spectator sport why would you pay attention until you have to?
Its day one of the usual official campaign. People are not dumb they know there are weeks to go
A large part of the “Debate” was the questions and moderation; I wonder if the press will see the result as a reflection of their failures.
EP
I missed that. Must be the time difference caught me out.
for me and the OH House Rules was on the menu . copied debate might bring myself to watch it. if i have an hour in the day when i’m not watching the paint dry.
Which, as we see day in, day out, we’ll never get when it’s journalists asking questions.
victoria:
I also like hearing the questions ordinary people put to the leaders. I enjoyed Labor’s community cabinets for the same reason.
confessions
That is why despite all the problems QandA is so important. At least its the general publics genuine questions even if filtered a bit.
This is of course why the LNP hates it. They know how damaging to them this is.
Fess
Agreed. Community forums have everyday people asking questions that are pertinent to their lives. Isnt that what democracy is supposed to represent?
Last night’s event was another typical campaign piece. Shorten won ‘cos he’s much much better at speaking directly to voters than is his opponent. T’s error is to try to “persuade”. Persuasion – arguing – doesn’t work. It simply makes the speaker appear to be “talking at”, “talking down” or “lecturing.” T continually appears to be doing this. The response of those watching is to “turn off”.
Shorten is quite different in both style and content. Largely, he relies on affirming what those watching will already believe, on drawing in many different examples or themes, and on using rhetorical devices – repetition, contrasts and inversions.
As a campaign gig, Shorten killed it.
GrogsGamut: My post for @GuardianAus on tax & spending cuts: “It’s time to expose the myths of the neo-liberal economic model” https://t.co/OZxOfSDiP6
bakunin;
Actually there is a double sophomore effect for Corangamite, i didnt take that into account, i dont expect it to change myself, but i expect it to be closer than that poll says.
Farmers are pretty unhappy down here (im next door). Katter reminding people that ‘they keep voting for the same people and expecting a different result’ at a rally a few days ago.
OTOH, last time ALP won it was the first in 100years IIRC, and there was a huge amount of campaign effort went into holding it for a second term. So maybe the previous result was inflated as well.
Corrangamite will definitely be a seat to watch.
Nine News Brisbane @9NewsBrisbane
.@MathiasCormann agrees with ex-Labor QLD treasurer that @billshortenmp is running anti-business campaign. (link: http://www.9news.com.au/national/2016/05/30/09/23/shorten-anti-business-cormann) 9news.com.au/national/2016/… #9News
Rofl laughing my head off…
Fess
It is not difficult to know what is important to most people. Job security with well paying jobs. Good education and excellent health services.
victoria:
Agreed.
I thought the puce background behind the leaders made them both look sick and tired.
I hope the cross bench QandA tonight will produce some fireworks to get people politically engaged. Some colour and movement will distract people from their reality shows for a minute or two.
evan parsons @ #65 Monday, May 30, 2016 at 9:48 am
Voters are not interested in politics. It bores them. They experience it as noise, as squabbling. Who can blame them for ignoring it.
Cat
Yes. Almost like they wanted no one to watch at all.
Geez ..Grogs Gamut ..err, I mean Greg Jericho is good at explaining economics. Even an economic ignoramus like me can understand what he’s writing:
“For Malcolm Turnbull the election is all about jobs and growth and a belief that a company tax cut and reducing government spending is the way to achieve both. But in light of the failures of such standard economic thinking after the GFC to provide economic growth, new research is finding that policies that fail to consider other aspects such as inequality are actually undermining long-term economic performance.”
and:
“Right now Malcolm Turnbull would have you believe that it is an absolute given that more foreign investment and lower taxation and government spending will deliver economic growth. The reality is such belief is based on a model that struggles deliver proof that is actually works and which crucially ignores factors such as inequality that can actually undermine their goal of economic growth.
Nearly a decade on from the GFC it perhaps it time to acknowledge the neo-liberal model might have a few cracks in it.”
Great read, with Greg’s signature interactive charts..
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/30/its-time-to-expose-the-myths-of-the-neo-liberal-economic-model?CMP=soc_568
Bug1
That’s an interesting observation. I do recall that when Kennett was unexpectedly rolled in Victoria in 1999, after the polls had predicted he would win easily, it was largely due to a number of country seats falling to Labor that they would normally never win. The polls apparently did not factor in the swing away from the government in those areas.
Of course Keith De Lacy said that Labor are ‘Anti Business’:
You get the picture. A reliable former Labor Party MP now shill for the Corporations Party, aka the Coalition.
“Yes. Almost like they wanted no one to watch at all”
Yes, the awful set alone was enough to turn many off.
guytaur @ #84 Monday, May 30, 2016 at 10:11 am
Yes, like those backgrounds that they warn affected viewers not to watch because it will make them feel sick!
I have just started to watch the telemovie “All the Way” featuring Brian Cranston (from Breaking Bad) as Lyndon Johnston. So far he is doing a brilliant job in the role.
I know and acknowledge it’s only a feelpinion.
But there is NO WAY on doGs green earth that Labor will have a LOWER primary in NSW in 2016 than in 2013.
Actually, thinking about the debate from the opposite perspective, that of the journalists asking questions, you have to wonder if the quality of this election campaign will improve at all from their side of the camera and microphone. Which can only be a bad thing when it comes to informing time-poor voters. As was observed above, the questions they asked gave the thoroughly-practiced politicians, who are used to driving a truck through the gaps and veering wildly away from Question Time questions, the chance to do it again last night.
I must say that Turnbull’s response to Tingle’s question, when she asked what had happened to the Real Malcolm and he just launched into his Uncle Tom’s Cabin schpiel about his oh so humble beginnings and his massive business success story, just set the bar very low from the get-go and it only got lower from there.
ACOSS @ACOSS
ACOSS calls for unfair tax concessions reforms – negative gearing & capital gains – to fix #housingcrisis
BK
Brian Cranston is a fabulous actor
LNP QLD is so intent of being the same idiots as before with VLAD laws:
http://www.tedsorensen.com.au/labor-begins-unravelling-of-tough-criminal-gang-laws/
vic
Cranston even looks like LBJ.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/cinvox/14489601827/in/photolist-o5oZPa-nt83vX-nt83Lr-nKzp3W-oCt4WD-nvRKqX-nQ8Rf6-nvSr3k-kDDoGi-ny6eGT-FvyN33-neCWtU-neD4dp-neD2F6-neCVHL-neCXZ9-neD3xr-nUvX5i-ibV6Hr-ndM2hN-GEeJco-GLkeAb-nuZKR9-nx3iFX-ntdMAw-nvSrgX-jjsWHY-jBRW3v-jBQYDX-myNdAc-k2TBqx-n4uMTB-nLawrt-nF8RNe-gu8KZN-o23hoN-mQGfQB-ngpTEc-nwEGYa-nADyJD-m95Czb-o9P7Vw-GGAb6p-odCrkT-GEesQw-GNwrp6-GNwsJF-f8cKCv-BJCWEs-6GVKXY
Victoria
#33 Monday, May 30, 2016 at 9:06 am
Yeah , but only behind chicken wire……….
“..Jon Faine with Ulhlmann. They were discussing the debate.” The reality is the debate meant nothing as not many watched it and the ones that did are probably rusted-on. Jon and Chris just like the sound of their own voices – no-one is really listening.
Fantastic. I’m a bit of an LBJ nut, so I’ve downloaded All the way.
Corangamite is centred on Geelong, which isn’t ‘regional’ in the sense that Ballaraat/Bendigo are, but is more a Melbourne suburb.
And we get back to: if there isn’t a swing towards Labor in Corgangamite, and there is in Victoria generally, then there are bigger swings happening elsewhere.
Single seat polling is never much of a guide to anything. In Indi, for example, which has attracted a few polls this election, we’ve seen Liberals either polling in the 20s or the 40s. That’s a huge margin of error!