Newspoll and BludgerTrack broken down

Newspoll breakdowns offer more evidence of a bruising swing against the Coalition in Western Australia, and a desertion of voters from both major parties in South Australia.

UPDATE (Roy Morgan): The latest fortnightly result from Roy Morgan has the Coalition up a point to 37.5%, Labor down half to 32.5%, the Greens down 2.5% to 13% and the Nick Xenophon Team steady at 5%, and otherwise remains remarkable for the size of the non-major party vote. The headline respondent-allocated two-party measure has Labor leading 51-49, down from 52.5 last time, but the shift on previous election preferences is more modest, from 52-48 to 51.5-48.5. The poll release also informs us that the Nick Xenophon Team was recorded at 26.5% in South Australia, ahead of Labor on 25%, with the Liberals on 31%. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 3099.

The Australian today brings us state breakdowns aggregated from the last four Newspoll surveys going back to the start of April, pointing to two-party swings of around 3% in New South Wales and Victoria, 6% in Queensland and 7% in Western Australia, but no swing at all in South Australia – albeit that the picture there is almost certainly confused by a Nick Xenophon Team-fuelled 34% for “others”. I have taken the opportunity to put together one of my occasional detailed state breakdowns inclusive of the Newspoll numbers, together with the various other published and unpublished state-level polling available to me. The key point of interest so far as the primary vote is concerned is the others vote in South Australia, which is a little more modest than Newspoll at 22.8%, but has risen quite dramatically since the start of the year. For charts to go with the following tables, see here.

bludgertrack-statetables-2016-05-30

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,361 comments on “Newspoll and BludgerTrack broken down”

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  1. Chris, in particular likes the sound of his own voice, which tends to get more pompous with each passing day.

    Meanwhile, AM continues its infatuation with government ministers – it was Julie’s turn today. I know it’s an election campaign, but really who cares about boring conventions aimed at ensuring balanced coverage during such periods.

  2. So Labor is moving to put Climate Change on the agenda for the week. That is what the Great Barrier Reef announcement is about in political tactic terms.

    Great way to bring Hunt out of witness protection.

  3. The debate sets the tone for msm reporting. It also tests the leaders and their messages. It doesn’t need to be widely watched to have importance.

  4. I think Bug has made an excellent point about the rural city divide.

    On those Newspolls it makes a HUGE difference. It may also explain the variability of the polls, depending on the % rural voters in the sample. However it is not as simple as rural/city. Here is how I am seeing it after today’s poll data:
    WA: big swing on Pick up Cowan, Burt and probably Swan. Hasluck a maybe
    Tas: No swing at all (the economy is looking OK just now) No change
    Victoria: Not enough of a swing on to make much impact (remember vote is ALREADY high) Probably will not pick up anyone and Batman obviusly might go Green
    NSW city: Pick up MacArthur, Banks and Barton and probably 1 other (Reid or Lindsay)
    NSW regional: Pick up Dobell, Patterson, Eden-Monaro, Robertson and Page and probably MaQuarie, Gilmore
    Qld City: Prick up Brisbane, Petrie, Bonner, Forde,
    Qld Regional: Leichardt, Capricornia, Flynn, Herbert. Out5side Chance of Dawson
    NT/ACT: No change
    SA: Who knows. MaybeNXT all11 seats?

  5. peter of marino @ #97 Monday, May 30, 2016 at 10:39 am

    Victoria
    #33 Monday, May 30, 2016 at 9:06 am

    We know that Shorten has conducted countless town hall debates. Has Turnbull done any so far?

    Yeah , but only behind chicken wire……….

    It’s only a debate if you have an opponent.
    Shorten has done Town Hall Meetings.

  6. c@tmomma @ #92 Monday, May 30, 2016 at 10:27 am

    Of course the journalists would be dissatisfied. At such campaign gigs they are themselves just props. They are not relevant in any other way. Such events are a way for candidates to talk past journalists directly to voters. Of course, they would hate that.

  8. So, day 1 of a normal election campaign today, and you’d have to say that the first three weeks have been pretty much honours even. This campaign can be seen as analogous to a 5 day Test Match (that’s cricket, for you unbelievers), in which we are at stumps on Day 1. A team can’t win the match on the first day, but they can sure as hell lose it. With that in mind I don’t think either side has done enough to lose the election as yet – there have been no election-defining gaffes or stumbles which might crystalise the views of swinging voters one way or the other.

    WB’s polling suggest that Labor would have won around 14 seats had the election been held last Saturday (which would give us a House of around LNP 77, ALP 69, Others 4), and to my far-less analytical mind, that seems about right at the moment. The popular scenario is one akin to 1998, when Howard won the seats, despite losing the popular vote, by sandbagging the marginals (though we are yet to see much hard evidence of this so far). However, the trend has been steadily drifting towards Labor since the start of the year, and if that continues, a narrow win to the good guys is still a real prospect.

  9. daretotread @ #104 Monday, May 30, 2016 at 10:45 am

    Of all the Lib-held seats in WA, Hasluck will be the first to fall to Labor…demographics better there than in other seats.

    The rise of NXT in SA should give pause to thought to the Libs and the G’s. I particular, the G’s might ask themselves how come a centrist party can rise form nothing to 1/4 of the vote while they ass around on a fake-left mission going nowhere.

  12. Sohar
    I am watching it on Foxtel, so K17 will have to spill the beans.
    It’s been very good to watch having lived through those turbulent times from when I was 17.

  13. This ALLEGED fraudulent use of CabCharges by Joe Hockey goes back to 2009 ..and APPEARS to dwarf that of Mr Peter Slipper..

    <i."The two-page letter advised Hockey of an "apparent fraud" against his taxpayer funded Cabcharge card involving alleged "phantom journeys" amounting to thousands of dollars.
    "We intend to refer this apparent fraud against your card to the federal police," the letter from Cabcharge company secretary Andrew Skelton advised.
    Mr Skelton told Mr Hockey that Cabcharge was undertaking a "full investigation of the circumstances" at the request of the then Department of Finance and Deregulation."

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/was-joe-hockey-taken-for-a-ride-the-taxi-driver-cabcharge-dockets-and-secret-investigation-20160529-gp6ki1.html#ixzz4A61VSWPm

  16. BBishop does not rule out a Liberal-National-Greens coalition: (ABC election blog today)

    Bishop refuses to rule out deal for govt
    The Foreign Minister has been speaking to the ABC’s Michael Brissenden on AM.

    Political reporter Eliza Borrello explains:
    Foreign Minister Julie Bishop has left the door open to negotiating to form government in the event of a hung parliament.
    Labor
    has ruled out a Coalition with the Greens to secure office if the election
    doesn’t end in a clear result.
    But Ms Bishop says the Coalition would consider the circumstances.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-30/federal-election-live-may-30/7457584

  17. I don’t know how many posters from Darwin we have here who could give us a feel for what’s happening up there, but from a distance of about 3000 kilometres, I just can’t see the Liberals hanging on to Solomon. People are waiting for the CLP government up there with baseball bats, the margin is small and did not increase at the last election. A near certain Labor gain for mine, unless there is some huge factor I’m missing.

  18. Australain LNP Government covering up…

    Michael Slezak‏ @MikeySlezak
    I’ve obtained the full UN report, prior to it being scrubbed of all ref to Aus. Here’s what else was cut #reefgate

  20. Briefly

    Can we perhaps have an intelligent, unemotional discussion of Hasluck. My thinking (without knowing the details of the seat) is that Ken Wyatt, being indigenous and also being highly presentable, will attract a higher than average share of preferences ans also he will not in any way be as tainted by either Abbott or Turnbull. I guess what I am thinking is that he will have an enhanced and longer lasting sophomore effect.

    Now please explain other factors that make my guessing wrong. Is the ALP candidate exceptionally good, indigenous, what is the emplymemnt situation etc. These are serious not rhetorical questions. It seems to me that in every election you get one or two seats that buck the trend and I have a feeling Hasluck may be one such

  23. daretotread @ #120 Monday, May 30, 2016 at 11:12 am

    The demographics make it easier – median incomes, unemployment rates, age distribution, etc. As well, the unpopularity of the State Government will be intense in Hasluck. Really, in outer-Metro precincts, Barnett is despised and the LNP generally are thought of as incompetent, wasteful, arrogant sell-outs who have done no good for WA for many years. Hasluck has large tracts of blue-collar suburbs. They will just want to change the Government.

  24. Briefly

    The Xenophon factor here in South Australia really isn’t quite as simple as you suggest. The Xenophon Team might be new, but the Xenophon “brand” is far from new. He has been around in SA politics for nearly 20 years. He got a seat on a small vote at the 1997 state election, but was pretty soon involved in some high profile votes and issues so became known. Then at the 2006 South Australian election, a combination of a collapse in both the Liberal and Democrat vote, plus a very clever campaign where he was able to convince voters that everyone was ganging up to try and get rid of him because he stands up for South Australia and not a party, resulted in him getting 20.5% of the Legislative Council vote.

    Xenophon in general has had a very good run with the media here because he feeds them with clever stunts. Not only that, but he is very good at jumping on issues and reflecting popular sentiment. But I find that when I ask Xenophon voters what he actually stands for and believes in, it is very difficult to get an answer. I guess the point I am trying to make is that Xenophon most certainly hasn’t come from nowhere; he has had considerable support in SA for some time. The potential pitfall for him may well be if he manages to get other candidates elected; we have seen how that can go very wrong when a party is built on the brand of one person.

  28. Don’t forget what their leader said he’d do last time.

    tbf to Tones, he only said he’d sell his arse to be PM. Turnbull actually did it.

  30. dtt….there is a divide in Perth..an east/west divide. The Western/coastal zone is affluent. It is also very well-supported with roads, parks, gardens, hospitals, schools, universities, railways and access routes both into the city and to the north and south. The eastern side of Perth is far less well endowed and median incomes are generally much lower. Hasluck occupies a great big slab of the long-neglected, noisy, congested, ill-invested East and outer-East. It will swing. There is no doubt at all about that.

  35. Re LBJ, he was the primary inspiration for the main character in the US series of House of Cards, Francis Underwood
    Good to see it for real.

  38. Vic “I guess Turnbull in particularly may have been pleased with last night’s outcome. Status quo”

    I wondered that at first, but I doubt that either camp would be particularly happy with it. Turnbull can’t afford “status quo” any more, given the polls, and neither can Shorten.

    The format played a part in the problems, the camera setup etc was awful, and the questions were the sort of journo questions that politicians of all complexions are used to not giving real answers to.

    The Sky debate a couple of weeks back was far better, far more informative, and provided a real measure of the two. Mind you, I suspect the Libs tacticians are more wary of having another in that format in front of a larger audience, given that Shorten was very clearly the winner of it, unless they get really desperate for a “circuit breaker” to stop the vote slide to Labor. Be a gamble/ maybe “last throw of the dice”, though.
    On the other hand one suspects Turnbull’s ego is probably sufficiently bloated to imagine he really won both debates, despite the trouncing he got in the first one and the nil all draw vacuousness of the second.

  39. Hmmm

    The Piping Shrike ‏@Piping_Shrike 12h12 hours ago
    Main impact from the non debate will be fellow Libs’ disappointment with Mal’s handling of boats and tax.

  42. Jobs and Growth

    company gross operating profits fell 4.7 per cent in the March quarter, missing market expectations for a 0.4 per cent rise.

    new home sales fell a seasonally adjusted 4.7 per cent in April

    WA posted the sharpest monthly fall in sales of detached homes, dropping 19.8 per cent. Sales of detached homes fell in 8.1 per cent in NSW, 7.8 per cent Queensland and 1.3 per cent South Australia in April. Victoria was the only mainland state to post a rise in the April, with sales leaping 14.3 per cent per cent.

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/business/markets-live/markets-live-eight-straight-for-asx-20160529-gp6u83.html

  43. I was curious about Keith De Lacy, the Qld ex-Labor treasurer criticising Shorten today on business policy.

    A quick Google indicates he’s been mainly running coal mining companies since his retirement from politics. He popped his head up in 2015 to argue that Labor’s win in the Qld election would “have a destabilising effect on the business sector” and again this year (together with Coalition ex-pollies) arguing for more asset sales from the Qld Government.

    No wonder the Australian loves him.

  44. “BBishop does not rule out a Liberal-National-Greens coalition: (ABC election blog today)

    Bishop refuses to rule out deal for govt
    The Foreign Minister has been speaking to the ABC’s Michael Brissenden on AM.

    Political reporter Eliza Borrello explains:
    Foreign Minister Julie Bishop has left the door open to negotiating to form government in the event of a hung parliament.
    Labor
    has ruled out a Coalition with the Greens to secure office if the election
    doesn’t end in a clear result.
    But Ms Bishop says the Coalition would consider the circumstances.”

    I’m stunned that Bishop has made this concession. It both bad politics for the Liberals and the Greens. For the Liberals it loses ammunition that voting Labor you could have minority government, and for the Greens some swinging left voters who are soft Green voters are not going to like hearing that and would instead decide to park there vote with Labor.

  46. Briefly & Scott Bales, it seems to me that the ALP & Greens should both be pointing out loud and clear by now that the Libs “Jobs and Growth “plan” isn’t a “plan” at all. Tax cuts for the wealthy isn’t a “plan” or a “vision” or a “framework” or any of the things the Libs claim for it. Its just bucks for the big boys. Emperor Turnbull has no clothes and it’s time to shout it from the rooftops.

    Maybe they are both saving it up for later, but surely the vacuity of the Libs” “plan” guff must be subconsciously apparent to all decent journos. Maybe they need a prod to call it more loudly for what it is! Pure naked nonsense!

  47. It’s interesting that two WA pollies (Bishop and Cormann) have not categorically ruled out a LNP coalition with Greens and others. Perhaps they have seen the writing on the wall in WA especially and do not expect a LNP outright victory. Who would be the LNP’s negotiator to try and form a coalition? Bishop perhaps? What would the LNP offer the Greens and others as inducement in negotiations?

  48. If there was ever going to be a blog post that had the same lasting impact as the very best journalism, that post was it. Personal without oversharing, precisely targeted in its anger and overly generous toward the media, it shamed the better journalists. The then Managing Director of the ABC, Mark Scott, referenced Jericho’s lament that he couldn’t find out about disability policy from the media, and vowed to do better in reporting the news rather than second-guessing tactics.

    Nothing came of it. Take Gillard’s name from the above quote and you could run it today. “Campaign trail” journalism is bullshit journalism through and through, thoroughly debunked by Tim Crouse in 1972 and never bettered, or redeemed. Yet still this waste of resources persists. When parliament is sitting and actual government is underway, the press gallery wishes it was on the campaign trail, and now that they are they realise they are boring themselves and actually shunning readers/ viewers/ listeners with the sheer vacuity, the exhaustion of everything they find thrilling and compelling about their “work”.

    http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/2016/05/we-could-lose-95-percent-of-journalists.html

  49. bk @ #140 Monday, May 30, 2016 at 11:44 am

    Turnbull’s minders will not allow any debate where there would be a live audience.

    The Libs have a campaign problem. They have nothing much to campaign with. They have no policies, no themes and no sales team. They have no leaders and no followers either. They haven’t really even got a slogan.

    The one thing that is running for them is voter boredom. Many voters have long-since lost interest in politics; they don’t much want to listen to politicians, parties, reporters or commentators. They’re inured to political messaging of nearly all kinds. So the weakness of the LNP line will barely register with them and they will ignore competing messages too.

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