UPDATE (Roy Morgan): The latest fortnightly result from Roy Morgan has the Coalition up a point to 37.5%, Labor down half to 32.5%, the Greens down 2.5% to 13% and the Nick Xenophon Team steady at 5%, and otherwise remains remarkable for the size of the non-major party vote. The headline respondent-allocated two-party measure has Labor leading 51-49, down from 52.5 last time, but the shift on previous election preferences is more modest, from 52-48 to 51.5-48.5. The poll release also informs us that the Nick Xenophon Team was recorded at 26.5% in South Australia, ahead of Labor on 25%, with the Liberals on 31%. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 3099.
The Australian today brings us state breakdowns aggregated from the last four Newspoll surveys going back to the start of April, pointing to two-party swings of around 3% in New South Wales and Victoria, 6% in Queensland and 7% in Western Australia, but no swing at all in South Australia – albeit that the picture there is almost certainly confused by a Nick Xenophon Team-fuelled 34% for “others”. I have taken the opportunity to put together one of my occasional detailed state breakdowns inclusive of the Newspoll numbers, together with the various other published and unpublished state-level polling available to me. The key point of interest so far as the primary vote is concerned is the others vote in South Australia, which is a little more modest than Newspoll at 22.8%, but has risen quite dramatically since the start of the year. For charts to go with the following tables, see here.
“”Turnbull’s minders will not allow any debate where there would be a live audience.””
Bil Shorten should ask for a Q&A forum and invite Malcolm!.
citizen @ #147 Monday, May 30, 2016 at 11:59 am
They want some G-prefs. They know that in WA they will need them.
Citizen, seems to me that the closer we get to the election, if the polls stay as they are, the more nervous both sides will get about ruling any agreements with other parties or independents categorically “in” or “out”. Doing so risks a replay of the Gillard “no carbon tax” problem. In an election as close as this one , neither major can really afford to be dogmatic about such things. The likelihood of the Libs & the Greens forming a real alliance of any kinds is about the same as that of hell freezing over, but post election, the less the parties have said to “commit” to a position on such things with anyone the easier they will find it thereafter if deals have to actually be done post election.
“Chris, in particular likes the sound of his own voice, which tends to get more pompous with each passing day.”
LOL, I assumed this was about Pynne, but then I realised it was Uhlman. Works either way I suppose…
Turnbull needs to be out there winning. After all, he’s the Great Communicator.
Shorten is just this union grub in a shiny suit who’s backstabbed two PMs etc. etc. No one expects him to do any good etc. etc.
Having said that, neither can be too proud of last night’s performance. Shorten looked a little nervous and forced, at least at the start. I thought he made a good point, though, on pointing out Turnbull was urging people smugglers to get back into business if Labor won.
But then… why were they even talking about Boats? Surely it’s a legacy issue, so old it’s got whiskers on it. We can’t keep ignoring the rest of the nation’s problems – the economy, education, health, receding tax revenue, inequality and so on – forever, just in favour of a raw nerve ending like Boats can we?
Probyn brought up boats, from memory with a question that seemed more intended to defuse it as an issue, than to promote it. But he should have known that any mention of Boats just causes an itch that can never be scratched enough times to make it go away.
It constantly scores as a low order issue, so why can’t the Gallery give it a rest, even if for one election? If Labor wins and lets the Boats start up again they will be unmercifully punished next election. Michael Gordon made a good point of this a few eeeks ago when he said the Boats issue had become so absurd that even ONE boat arrival was enough to be blown up into a national crisis, there were so many itchy fingers waiting to squeeze the trigger.
Predicating the entire nation’s well being on one issue like this – with Boats a proxy for stopping invaders, preventing terrorism, protecting jobs and the revenue (as well as the unspoken ones of latent and patent religious and racial discrimination) – lessens us as a proud confident nation, and shows us up as a mob of cowed children, afraid of the outside world. It’s doing our heads in. In itself, it’s not a significant issue – or shouldn’t be.
Throwing away the baby with the bathwater on so many other issues because of the journos preoccupation with trick questions on boats, and scoring whole electoral platforms on this one minor issue, is just crazy.
Which is why last night’s format was so stupid. We want to get away from the Gallery’s “official” memes, the ones where they find it so easy to fill out a score card for one side or the other. It relegates the running of a real country to just the phoney suspense and faux issues of a Reality TV show.
Shorten should refuse to countenance any more “moderated” efforts like last night. He wasn’t himself, and it showed. Turnbull comes alive in front of an audience that has had him marked for greatness for the last 20 years. They feed off each other, each with a vested interest in a pre-judged outcome, as long as it’s played by the insiders’ game rules.
briefly : “That’s pretty much what Shorten asserted last night…quite often, really…”
Yes, he started to, but buried it in way too much waffle, with way too little clear explanation for it to cut through, for mine.
Regardless, I reckon it needs to be a clear general theme for all those opposing the Libs.
Bil= Bill of course
Hello all. Well I see I did not miss too much in the leaders debate (or was it merely synchronised speeches) last night. The main winner was Nick Xenephon…
Speaking of which, that “other” guy is, is looking a good chance in SA. He could even win a lower house seat depending on preferences.
In the SA Senate Other’s chances look excellent, despite the presence of major party luminaries like Cory Bernardi, Simon Birmingham, Don Farrell and from the minors Bob Day for balance. Despite this galaxy of star performers oozing charisma and class to choose from, at least one SA voter in five looks like supporting Other. Those planning to preference against Senator Other in the lower house had best remember that they will probably be needing Other’s vote(s) to pass legislation for the next six years.
I thought the Libs thought minority government is the worst thing to ever happen to Australia?
Rod Hagen
I found the Turnbull Shorten Debate boring. There were no winners for mine lots of talking but what else?
Where is Keating when we need him!
These type of debates generally have no bearing on the election result anyway.
Markjs
Yes I was wondering what Peter Slipper would be thinking of this story too?
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/was-joe-hockey-taken-for-a-ride-the-taxi-driver-cabcharge-dockets-and-secret-investigation-20160529-gp6ki1.html
What does it take to get the AFP to investigate this? Just because a creditor decides to hush something up later does not mean that a fraud was not committed earlier. The Commonwealth has spent a lot of money prosecuting much less recently. Australian taxpayers would be saved a great deal of money if it turned out they did not have to pay a former cabinet minister’s parliamentary pension or expensive post-parliament wage. And WHO decided to keep this secret??
zoomster @ #100 Monday, May 30, 2016 at 10:44 am
Actually Geelong is mostly in Corio. The bits of Geelong in Corangamite covers the richer established suburbs such as Belmont and Grovedale, and also the new estates around Waurn Ponds and Marshal.
Geographically, most of it is in the regional Surf Coast, Colac and Otway, and inland towards Ballarat. Ironically most of the rural shire of Corangamite itself is not in this federal division.
Labor could try winning by pushing hard on the new development areas around Waurn Ponds, and in the regional areas.
malcontent (FIZZA) TURDBULL not having a great start to the day
etamade123
14m ago
4 5
Malcolm Turnbull:
This is the way we are making this announcement, with myself and the minister. Because we are dealing with questions, regrettably none of you have shown any interest at all in the announcement, none of you have shown any interest in this school, in education… None of you have asked any questions about it.
I would be delighted – what about this? Why don’t we have two questions on P-Tech and technology in schools.
Can you think of one? Anyone have one?
Ooooooh Malcy doesn’t like the questions, you have to ask me the questions I want you to you fools!!
Okay then….
Ok then, say the reporters.
Q: $234m has been cut from the electorate of Lindsay?
Malcolm Turnbull:
The commitment of spending here and the commitment to this electorate is very substantial, particularly in terms of infrastructure.
The education minister Simon Birmingham, who is out on the hustings with Turnbulll, says this is a Labor scare campaign.
Hahahahahahahahahahahaha….comedy gold.
In regards to boats – yes, we know it’s not a high priority on voters lists, and we know it’s political poison. What we don’t seem to know and should, is that it’s inevitable that more will come, and in large numbers regardless of which party is in power. We have so much unused space here, the rest of the world must just look on with envy. It’s only a matter of time. Everyone needs to get their head around the fact that one way or another they’ll be coming eventually and the only control we have is to decide what the best way is to facilitate that. The only purpose the politics serve on this issue is to take remove our control over that decision, because ultimately, there isn’t a chance in hell that we can stop them forever.
Last night’s debate could have taken a surreal turn if Shorten had responded to Turnbull’s claim to have been “brought up in shoe box” with the one word response of Looxury and then the rest of the debate became a performance of the “4 Yorkshiremen” skit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe1a1wHxTyo
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/conservative-liberal-mp-hands-out-flyers-spruiking-a-government-under-tony-abbott-20160530-gp706g.html
You need to get your facts right before you open your mouth.
Ta again C@Tmomma.
mal headline for a meet and greet.
A Point Piper Royal visits Penrith, so what!
British Raj visits natives in colony
Re Hasluck I don’t know Ken personally, he has the obvious incumbency and personal vote that goes with it, whatever it is in his case.
Bill has a bit of the Malcolm’s about him IMHO, even reading his candidate bio on the ALP site you’d pick him as a candidate for Curtin or Freo not Hasluck.
Having said that I agree with Briefly that Hasluck seems demographically aligned to have least engagement and highest grumpiness with the liberal brand.
Bill by, for Hasluck, a comfortable length.
“Turnbull’s minders will not allow any debate where there would be a live audience” He’s quite happy with intellectual in-breds from the Canberra Press Gallary, though. Wonder why?
Noting others’ comments on Xenephon, I can understand why Coalition and Labor staffers will be trying to paint Xenephon as lightweight or unproven as a team. Nevertheless I suggest such efforts are likely to fail, especially in SA. Xenephon’s NXT has a comprehensive range of policies, which can be found here, plus bios on candidates at least as detailed as major parties give out.
https://nxt.org.au/whats-nxt/policy-principles/
https://nxt.org.au/candidates/
I would say Xenephon is marginally right of centre. This places him to the left of many in the Labor religious right on most issues not relating to unions.
There is a real danger of ironic self damage for both Labor and Liberals attacking opponents on grounds of potential instability. Their own stability has not been too flash either, as five changes of PM in nine years have proven. Greece has been more stable.
Personally I do hope Labor win. If not, I very much hope Xenephon holds the balance of power. That is the only hope for a state the size of SA being considered at budget time. Have a good day all.
BK, they have to assess whether they take more damage from :
People seeing Malcolm lose another “debate”, or
The “Malcolm running scared, no ticker, so wont turn up” meme.
I think they will have to accept that Malcolm HAS to front up again, just wear it, and hope the press run with the “oh so boring” theme mentioned just upthread to mitigate the damage.
OnceWasAus
38m ago
11 12
Turnbull – Plebiscite for same sex marriage as soon as possible after the election. Notice the words. It back onto the never never. He knows his party is too divided on this.
Imacca
And the audible groans and applause from the audience.
Oops! Lib candidate hands out “under a Tony Abbott Government” fliers! http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/conservative-liberal-mp-hands-out-flyers-spruiking-a-government-under-tony-abbott-20160530-gp706g.html
Mr Money,
The Liberal team have workshopped this spontaneous public meet and greet for the last month. But, the LNP did find it difficult to find anyone who could act as an average voter from their ranks.
I love it when Elder gets stuck into the CPG:
“It shouldn’t be my job to tell the Chief Political Correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald what his job is, but I’ve been doing it for years and the perceptions and analysis excreted by that poor silly bastard have not improved even slightly. He gives us a rundown of the clichés he is going to flog for the next two months, which should deter any sensible reader from bothering to consult him for the rest of this financial year. He can’t even remember the last election. He has learned nothing. His perspective and experience add no value – not to readers, not to Fairfax, but seemingly only to this individual’s salary and other perks.”
ABC News 24
14m
ABC News 24 @ABCNews24
The Coalition says it set aside more funding in the budget to help save the #GreatBarrierReef #ausvotes
Lol
Ah! I’m back. Belated thanks to Musrum.
Jeez, William, IF those Newspoll figures for SA are accurate, “others” have 22-25% more in SA than in other States and Greens have 5-7% less, so unless there’s something else that’s SA-specific the Xenos are getting about 28-30%. That’s the territory in which they get placed first or second on primaries in every metropolitan electorate and win them all on preferences! But I notice you score “others” about 11% lower, so I won’t put my money on that outcome just yet.
Yup. Actually, real time audience reaction provides much more fodder for the press so they should be enthused about that.
And also, questions from the audience, by the audience. I think there needs to be some vetting of questions by the producers, Q & A style. The first “debate” rambled a bit much. But……most of the questions need to originate from the audience so they are what THEY are concerned about…….not what arrogant has beens like Laurie Oaks think they should be concerned about.
@zoomster
Apart from the large MOE of single seat polling, I also wonder if it’s harder to avoid demographic biases if you’re polling in a single seat.
As a proportion of the voters, single seat poll samples are about 100 times larger so there’s more pressure to get the required sample and that might work against achieving an appropriately stratified sample.
For example, the elusive millennials might be hard to pin down in sufficient numbers.
remember this classic from the simpsons. MONORAIL
TattyFred
1h ago
2 3
“I’d like to offer you ‘ jobs and growth and a belief that a company tax cut will grow the economy’ but wait, no that’s more of a Shelbyville idea” so says Truffles the 2nd hand monorail salesman
Elder is correct in his central proposition that you could get rid of 95% of political journalists and be no worse off in terms of our understanding of politics, policy and how we are governed.
rod hagen @ #153 Monday, May 30, 2016 at 12:06 pm
The ALP have categorically rules out negotiating with the Greens for government, and I have no doubt they will reinforce this every time the issue comes up – which I hope it does today after the LNP foolishly left the option open.
I also think that Jobsen Groethe has been temporarily retired. Groethen Jobs made an appearance last night, but it was but fleeting.
Maybe Weeva Plan will take their place.
[Rod Hagen
Monday, May 30, 2016 at 12:40 pm
Oops! Lib candidate hands out “under a Tony Abbott Government” fliers! http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/conservative-liberal-mp-hands-out-flyers-spruiking-a-government-under-tony-abbott-20160530-gp706g.html ]
Nothing to get excited about. After all, TA said this is the Abbott-Turnbull government!
Frankly I’m surprised Kelly is even bothering handing out. Labor wouldn’t be targetting Hughes. A couple of mail outs and put your feet up old son.
work to rule @ #183 Monday, May 30, 2016 at 12:47 pm
That’s why they are pretty much useless. Polls taken across a whole state or the whole country will smooth out a lot of the voter lumpiness that is very difficult to account for in polling a single seat.
matt31 @ #124 Monday, May 30, 2016 at 11:22 am
The thing that makes me wonder is how Xenophon managed to run a campaign to vote for him BTL against all other candidates when he ran for Senate (prior to forming a GVT in 2013). That is pretty impressive in itself. He’ll have no problems now that he has the NXT ticket and OPV in the Senate.
“Malcolm Turnbull will not have a press conference with his local candidates , this is just plain ridiculous.” Malcolm going downhill at a rate of knots now.
Chaser crashes PM western Sydney visit
The Chaser comedians have gatecrashed the prime minister’s campaign visit to western Sydney, following him with a cardboard cut out of Tony Abbott.
Malcolm Turnbull was walking out of McCarthy Catholic College in Emu Plains on Monday when Chas Licciardello from the satirical comedy group approached him and yelled: “I trust you”.
He then fell backwards on the floor in front of the prime minister.
“I can’t believe you let me drop,” he yelled.
“I thought I could trust you. You told me I could trust you.”
Mr Turnbull laughed the stunt off and continued walking to his car.
But the ABC crew caught up with him again as he finally got around to a street walk in Penrith, following him through a mall with the cardboard cut-out of his predecessor.
http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/chaser-crashes-pm-western-sydney-visit/news-story/c083a04e83070f7fe8478656af164a55
I reckon a lot of Xenophon’s success down to him having a name staring with X.
Imagine an otherwise identical politician called John Smith – what chance would he have had to build the kind of career that the dreaded X has put together?
Yes P1, but in 2010 both majors in Tasmania “promised” not to accept the support of the Greens, and when the outcome was 10-10-5 the Greens of course accepted a couple of Ministries in a new Bartlett government. While the haggling was going on, Richo (not exactly a raving leftie in Labor terms) said:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2010-03-30/silly-labor-leader-should-talk-to-greens-richardson/385106
I imagine he’s thinking much the same about Bill’s “no deal with the Greens” “promise” now and would say so if his health would let him
zoidlord @ #179 Monday, May 30, 2016 at 12:40 pm
I wonder if this has anything to do with Hunt and Macklin’s appearance on 774 this morning, after Macklin announced that Labor is doing a presser on funding for Climate Change and the 19 year old caller who said that he was disillusioned with politics and feel that his views aren’t being heard.
Raaraa – Xenophon still had a group, you didn’t have to vote for him BTL. As long as you can find a running mate (and pay the nomination fee, and get the signatures), independents can run grouped tickets. Xenophon did register the “Nick Xenophon Team” name before the 2013 election, where he didn’t have to do anything about membership requirements as a sitting senator.
I don’t love Xenophon, but those South Australian numbers sure are something. Think of all the otherwise undefeatable Liberals that could fall. Yes, Labor could lose some too, but if a couple fewer Labor MPs is what it takes to defeat Jamie Briggs and Christopher Pyne, that seems like a fair trade.
frickeg @ #197 Monday, May 30, 2016 at 1:15 pm
Ah thanks, I stand corrected. So he ran under and unnamed group ticket?
Raaraa: In 2007, yes, he did. It was still a pretty great result – I think unprecedented for an independent in the Senate, but I’ll have to check Harradine’s numbers. (Tasmania, with its greater rate of BTL voting, has actually elected a few senators from the ungrouped column – Reg Turnbull never ran with a group, and Michael Townley first won from the ungrouped column too.)
socrates @ #172 Monday, May 30, 2016 at 12:36 pm
There is no such thing as a “Labor religious right”.