Good news and bad news for both sides this evening courtesy of the latest ReachTEL polls for the Seven Network, which have Labor opening up a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred nationally, but trailing 54-46 in the fairly crucial Liberal-held Victorian marginal of Corangamite. The national poll has the Coalition down 1.5% to 41.1%, Labor down 0.1% to 36.5%, the Greens down 0.3% to 9.6% and the Nick Xenophon Team back up to 4.3% after an anomalous drop from 4.2% to 2.7% last time. This gives Labor a two-party lead of 52-48 after three successive results of 50-50. It should be noted that this was achieved from a heavy flow of respondent-allocated preferences to Labor: using preference flows from 2013, and folding the Nick Xenophon Team into a generic “others” category, the result would be around 50.6-49.4. Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are stable: combined very good and good is up 0.8% to 29.4%, combined poor plus very poor is up 1.7% to 36.8%. Bill Shorten’s improving trend continues, with very good plus good up 1.2% to 29.1% and poor plus very poor down 1.5% to 36.9%. Preferred prime minister continues a slow narrowing trend, now at 54.9-45.1 in favour of Turnbull compared with 55.6-44.4 last time. The automated phone poll was conducted last night from a sample of 2700.
The Corangamite poll is quite a different matter, with Liberal member Sarah Henderson credited with 54-46 lead on two-party preferred, and 48.3% of the primary vote when a forced preference question for the 7.7% undecided is included with the result. Both numbers are exactly identical to the result in 2013, when she unseated Labor’s Darren Cheeseman with a 4.2% swing. The primary votes also record Labor losing ground to the Greens, with Labor on 27.1% and the Greens on 15.0%, compared with 32.0% and 11.9% at the election. This poll was also conducted last night, from a sample of 770.
Shut up Mal
Turnbot is pleading …almost wheedling at times..
What high wages!?! They are flatlining!
Keep talking Mal.
Consensus in the solipsist household is that Bill’s done better on the messaging, but should’ve been a bit subtler when it came to putting the boot in.
Turnbull very lucky that this not a “public” audience. He would have been getting jeers and derision i think. If the journos are unhappy….then this will be the last debate for Mal i reckon.
Bill’s final statement is an absolute ripper
Shorten is dying a slow death in this debate…
1. How can you, on the one hand, say that the coalition ‘can’t fund’ 50 billion dollars of tax cuts to business, but then factor in precisely those ‘savings’ by not proceeding with them to fund your own policies??? The biggest mistake of the ALP continually is to take the electorate for mugs.
2. School kids’ bonus backflip has (and should) come back to bite him on the bum. After bleating about restoring it since the budget, he drops it last Thursday, blaming PEFO??!!! Are you serious? Is he so lazy that he did not read precisely the same figures back at the budget. NOTHING HAS CHANGED financially, it has only changed politically. What a liar. It had nothing to do with the budget.
3. The ALP has little discipline in its ranks with its border protection policies. ALP hacks took great delight in 2013 (including most in this room) to say how turn-backs were impractical/impossible/stupid/immoral. It is now published Labor policy, but two dozen MPs have shown ill-discipline by opposing this policy publicly.
4. Bill is still lying about the ‘tax cuts to the rich’. The deficit levy which the ‘rich paid’ and the rest didn’t, that was ALWAYS temporary, cannot be framed as a ‘tax cut’ to the detriment of the ‘average Australian’.
A political party will never do well in Australia when it assumes that those who vote for them are so dumb that they can’t see through blatant lies and misrepresentation.
The guy is completely deceitful… Hardly surprising for someone who would sell out workers’ penalty rates for the sake of donations to the AWU. The same guy who brought down TWO prime ministers in his own party. So. Disgraceful. I thought the ALP was scraping the bottom of the barrel with Latham in 2004, knowing full well what he was like. I am now starting to think that Bill Shorten would give Latham a run for his money in terms of being the very worst alternative PM since federation.
‘Malcolm’s Great Big Tax Giveaway’!
this will get awarded to Turnball by the media – he looked comfortable in the first half – even though he went to water in the second that is not what will be reported. Would love for Shorten’s line re I lead my party he is lead by his to get coverage but do not expect it to
“Turnbull wants to give the banks a big tax cut. I want to give them a Royal Commission”.
Maybe. But good to see a bit of biff and manhandling of Mals ego.
Win to Shorten pretty cleary.
I know I’m biased, but Bill just schooled him.
“Turnbell wants to give the banks a 7 billion tax cut I want to give them a royal commission”; zinger of year for sure.
Bill got Labor messages up time and again….excellent.
Mal’s rictus grin makes a return when Shorten shakes his hand…
Is it just me or does Bluepill sound desperate?
Wow… a huge response from Bluepill, Turnbull must have done worse than I thought :S
First mention of the NBN in Shorten’s closing statement. Shame, that issue is definitely a win for Labor at the moment.
Fool Gilbert gave it a clear win to Turnbull.
Who will be the first journo to call it a draw because no leader made a huge cock up?
Kieran Gilbert calls it a clear win for Turnbull.
Quelle surprisement.
@BK – Gilbert gave the win to Turnbull about 30 mins ago.
Wow blue tablet that is a fair ol diatribe straight out of the LNP playbook!
Fact while the coalition has been in power the deficit has doubled – are they sposed to be responsible economic managers why has this happened??
I remember fool Gilbert giving a debate to someone then having to backtrack swiftly cos it was one of those audience votes ones, he is thick as two bricks.
BK
Sunday, May 29, 2016 at 8:31 pm
Fool Gilbert gave it a clear win to Turnbull.
Doesn’t matter they will not be talking about Gilbert around the water cooler.
Best line of the night from Shorten:
The difference is that I lead my party, but that Malcom’s party leads him.
Fool Gilbert on Sky giving a ‘clear win’ to the Lying Waffle
Pretty boring all up really.
Bill did well, get his points across nicely.
Turnbull orating again, going negative, didn’t stuff up.
Very staid format, bring back the town halls!
its one he prepared earlier
If anyone was watching the closing statements, Shorten clearly won.
As usual Mark David nails it!
Debates of this type rarely change peoples votes anyway.
I’m happy for a draw or a small win to Turnbull, as called by the CPG. It will encourage Turnbull to do more of these debates and will encourage the voters to follow them more closely as we get closer to election day.
This election campaign is going to be the misogyny speech writ large. With the CPG scoring according to the rules of the bizarre world in which they inhabit and the rest of the Australian people judging on what they see themselves.
I’m clearly leading the Labor Party, but Turnbull is clearly being lead by his party.
Wow! Sink the boot in! Yes!
So… in typical David Speers blinker-mode, he scored it a draw THEN thought Turnbull gave the better closing statement?! Apparently, it was more “focused”.
So, Turnbull got through the whole presentation without one mention of the DD trigger? If so, what a farce. These debates, in this format, are meaningless.
In the end the key difference is that Mal came across as a particularly insincere and unctuous barrister, whereas Bill came across as a genuine person, talking to people directly.
TPOF,
I’m absolutely not happy with a small win to the Liberals. It will give them time to finish destroying the NBN and cement their sick view of society. Please let the nightmare end.
Negatives for Bill:
– too wooden, rehearsed-looking early and stumbling over some words
– it doesn’t look good to say you’ll release your policy later so you can’t give a proper answer now
– sniping out of the blue about, for example, Turnbull being led by his party didn’t look good (even though it’s true)
I hate to say it but I thought Turnbull did a bit better overall.
Oh you meant win at the debate. Yeah ok.
Keep talking Mal.
Shorten’s best asset.
cud chewer @ #1738 Sunday, May 29, 2016 at 8:36 pm
I’m talking about the debate – not the election!!
Triton, I actually liked a couple of those snipes and they sum Turnbull and his party up well. Good on Bill. Lots of other people will agree.
It is likely 90% of the viewing audience did not bother, went elsewhere and have missed nothing. These events should not be handed over to the journos to massage both their own egos and those of the participants.
Thank you to all PB contributors for the running commentary on the debate – collectively these comments make a good summary of how it went. The power of social media at work.
Turnbull only did better if you have a taste for gratuitous bullshit.
Fundamentally, neither was especially great. Shorten was too rehearsed and uncomfortable early on. Turnbull got more rattled and verbose by the end, while Shorten got a little better.
At the end, I think it was a tie, but Shorten’s closer was MILES better.
I thought it was a draw. Couldn’t really pull them apart.
But when The Great Communicator is up against The Standing Dad Joke, shouldn’t the result be better than a draw? Turnbull needs to win every round at this stage, and he is not.
I must say that I believe Labor needs a few new lines. Getting sick of the old ones
As for the Coalition’s old lines. Keep ’em Malcolm. Please.
@Adrian – which is why the CPG is giving the win to Turnbull.
According to the flunkies on Sky Turnbull did not ignore the first question about where is and who is the real Malcolm, he just “pivoted”.