ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor

ReachTEL records a break to Labor after a period of stasis – yet also finds them trailing badly in a crucial Victorian marginal seat.

Good news and bad news for both sides this evening courtesy of the latest ReachTEL polls for the Seven Network, which have Labor opening up a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred nationally, but trailing 54-46 in the fairly crucial Liberal-held Victorian marginal of Corangamite. The national poll has the Coalition down 1.5% to 41.1%, Labor down 0.1% to 36.5%, the Greens down 0.3% to 9.6% and the Nick Xenophon Team back up to 4.3% after an anomalous drop from 4.2% to 2.7% last time. This gives Labor a two-party lead of 52-48 after three successive results of 50-50. It should be noted that this was achieved from a heavy flow of respondent-allocated preferences to Labor: using preference flows from 2013, and folding the Nick Xenophon Team into a generic “others” category, the result would be around 50.6-49.4. Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are stable: combined very good and good is up 0.8% to 29.4%, combined poor plus very poor is up 1.7% to 36.8%. Bill Shorten’s improving trend continues, with very good plus good up 1.2% to 29.1% and poor plus very poor down 1.5% to 36.9%. Preferred prime minister continues a slow narrowing trend, now at 54.9-45.1 in favour of Turnbull compared with 55.6-44.4 last time. The automated phone poll was conducted last night from a sample of 2700.

The Corangamite poll is quite a different matter, with Liberal member Sarah Henderson credited with 54-46 lead on two-party preferred, and 48.3% of the primary vote when a forced preference question for the 7.7% undecided is included with the result. Both numbers are exactly identical to the result in 2013, when she unseated Labor’s Darren Cheeseman with a 4.2% swing. The primary votes also record Labor losing ground to the Greens, with Labor on 27.1% and the Greens on 15.0%, compared with 32.0% and 11.9% at the election. This poll was also conducted last night, from a sample of 770.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,950 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor”

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  5. William, I left a comment on the last thread to do with the disparate demographics of the marginals.
    I’m not quite sure how to navigate this site as yet, however, I found your breakdowns, as well as the voting booths, very informative.
    Any information, gratefully received.

  6. One result of a move to Labor at this stage is that the LNP give up on attacking Labor marginals. That allows Labor to concentrate even more on vulnerable LNP seats including those in the regions where LNP have bigger margins – such as where Shorten did some work in N Queensland.

  7. The good thing is this time the more the Telecrap etc back Turnbull the more the swinging voters are determined to vote the other way.

  8. Now the rest of the world knows about this Hunt and LNP inspired idiocy:

    All references to climate change’s impact on World Heritage sites in Australia have been removed from a United Nations report.
    A draft of the report contained a chapter on the Great Barrier Reef and references to Kakadu and Tasmania.
    But Australia’s Department of the Environment requested that Unesco scrub these sections from the final version.
    A statement from the department said the report could have had an impact on tourism to Australian.
    It also said the report’s title, Destinations at Risk, had “the potential to cause considerable confusion”.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-36376226

  14. Boats,carbon tax,spendometer ,3 word slogans being seen for what they are.Shite! Bowen was right at the NPC.

  16. I think the LNP are dropping in the polls because voters the little they see on the news is all gaffes disorganisation from the LNP while ALP is steady as she goes strong statements all the way.

  18. RichardTuffin: So Greg Hunt just told @theprojecttv that Australia DIDN’T have to report this year. The Panel then turned up a note that said we do! #awks

  21. It took a pretty meaty respondent-allocated preference flow to get Labor to 52-48 in this ReachTEL poll. On previous election preferences it comes out at 50.6-49.4.

  25. Funny how the Palmer story sunk without a trace.

    7.30 meanwhile making much of Shorten’s comments on Trump.

  28. Hmm. Unless Sarah Henderson has managed to become a ridiculously popular local member, that Corangamite poll seems a little hard to credit.

    In any case, I’m not sure its going to provide a whole lot of comfort to the Coalition given the results of that federal poll.

  29. Adrian

    Machiavellian stuff from 7:30 pretending to attack Shorten on Trump knowing the public agree with him 🙂

  30. cupidstunt @ #14 Friday, May 27, 2016 at 7:24 pm

    Boats,carbon tax,spendometer ,3 word slogans being seen for what they are.Shite! Bowen was right at the NPC.

    I think a problem with the 3-word-slogan approach is that Turnball has not been consistent enough in their usage for them to resonate. Abbott s relentless use of “stop the boats” and “axe the tax” was effective because they were persistently and repetitively used with backup stunts in hard hats and hi vis apparel.

    Turnball lacks Abbott’s ruthless, blinked, anti-intellectual rhythm.

  31. Shorten’s comments on Trump are what many people already think. I think it was stupid of Turnbull to come out so strongly against Shorten. Straight talking, telling it like it is will never hurt Shorten. Most people probably agreed with him anyways.

  33. Labor’s rise appears to work in steps.

    Up a little, stablilise … hold, then step up a little more. Repeat.

    The past 6-9 months have meant the swing, as it is happening, appears to my mind to be solid, not soft.

  34. SilentMajority

    The Libs primary on it’s own in Reachtel is 37.6. The Nats is 3.5, so combined LNP primary is 41.1.

    The key thing looking at Reachtel is that since January, the LNP primary has dropped by 6.8, while Labor’s has gone up by 4.7.

  35. This poll result is like one of those report cards you got at school where the teacher wrote that the result was good, but with continued hard work it should be better next time.

    In other words, the shovel work is starting to pay off but not in spades yet. 🙂

  37. Any intelligence on Corangamite? What’s the ALP campaign there like? Sarah Henderson would have a very high profile, as the local MP

  38. Asha Leu

    From what I have read, when your side isn’t going so well, you throw a dead cat on the table. For example, boats, refugee bashing, NBN raids, whatever. It smells so bad everyone just leaves the room in disgust.

  40. booleanbach @ #26 Friday, May 27, 2016 at 7:36 pm

    Promising – but not qute enough just yet.
    Moving into minority Govt. territory for the ALP.

    The swing is on. In 2013 the LNP scored 53.5 % of the TPP. Using WB’s more conservative measure of pref flows the swing so far appears to be around 4.3%. Allowing for sophomore effects, Labor would win 74 seats according to Antony Green’s gadget. But to this we may be tempted to add some of these marginals (further swing shown in brackets for each seat):

    Forde QLD LNP 0.08%
    Macquarie NSW LIB 0.2%
    Cowan WA LIB 0.2%
    Gilmore NSW LIB 0.2%
    Corangamite VIC LIB 0.4%
    La Trobe VIC LIB 0.5%
    Bass TAS LIB 0.5%
    Boothby SA LIB 1.3%
    Leichhardt QLD LNP 1.4%
    Hasluck WA LIB 1.7%
    Burt WA LIB 1.8%

    Considering the three WA seats are very likely losses, the LNP appear to be goners.

  43. Can you imagine the right-wing media (95% of the MSM) and politicians if Turnbull gets done on 2 July. They will lay into Malcolm non-stop for years.

  45. asha leu @ #32 Friday, May 27, 2016 at 7:40 pm

    Oh, and forgive my ignorance here, but could someone please explain this whole dead cat thing to me?

    I think it’s an analogy of the manner in which the Libs have sought to change the focus by doing something outrageous – such as Dutton smearing refugees.

    The idea being that you may not gain much from throwing a dead cat on the table but you get the focus back on from your opponents.

  46. To my understanding dead cat means an old worn out subject brought up to try and win votes but doesnt work with the voters therefore the cat is metaphorically dead.

  47. asha leu @ #28 Friday, May 27, 2016 at 7:38 pm

    Hmm. Unless Sarah Henderson has managed to become a ridiculously popular local member, that Corangamite poll seems a little hard to credit.
    In any case, I’m not sure its going to provide a whole lot of comfort to the Coalition given the results of that federal poll.

    Corangamite is a very complex electorate in flux. It includes Geelong workers (or Geelong unemployed), dairy and other rural folk and tree-change Greens, inter alia. I expect there are serious movements of people in all three categories as finances and economic change impacts. I think it would be difficult to poll for that reason and even more difficult to predict.

    There may also be a significant sophomore effect. It would depend on how good a local member Henderson has been, which I have no knowledge on.

    Bottom line is that the opinion poll might be right or wrong and, in any, case, this may not be the typical seat.

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