ReachTEL: 50-50; Ipsos: 51-49 to Coalition

Two new national polls do nothing to dispel perceptions of a tight race, and they’re accompanied by another result showing Labor with its nose in front in the key outer Sydney seat of Macarthur.

Two new national polls this evening, plus a local one from the electorate of Macarthur:

• The latest Ipsos result for the Fairfax papers, which we can now expect on Friday night rather than Sunday at least for the period of the campaign, has the Coalition two-party lead unchanged at 51-49, with the Coalition primary vote down a point to 43%, Labor up one to 34%, and the Greens steady on 14%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 51-29 to 47-30, and his approval rating is steady on 48%, with disapproval down two to 38%. Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 40% and down three to 46%. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1497, compared with the usual Ipsos survey period of Thursday to Saturday.

• Seven News brings us a new poll from ReachTEL which is the third such poll in a row to have the result at 50-50, the most recent of which was conducted a few days after the budget on May 5. However, the primary votes look better for Labor this time, with the Coalition on 42.6%, down from 44.2%; Labor on 36.6%, up from 35.1%; the Greens on 9.9%, up from 9.5; and the Nick Xenophon Team on 2.7%, down from 4.2%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead over Bill Shorten has narrowed from 57.7-42.3 to 55.6-44.4; Turnbull’s very good plus good rating is up from 28.1% to 28.6%, and his poor plus very poor rating is up from 34.5% to 35.1%; the corresponding results for Bill Shorten record a solid improvement, with very good plus good up from 24.6% to 27.9%, and poor plus very poor down from 44.0% to 38.4%. The automated phone poll was recorded last night from a sample of 2407 – full results can be found here.

• There is also a separate ReachTEL poll for the Macarthur electorate, which the Russell Matheson holds for the Liberals on a post-redistribution margin of 3.3%, down from 11.4% at the 2013 election. Here ReachTEL credits Labor with a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred. After distributing results from a secondary question prompting the 10.7%, the primary votes are Liberal 41.4%, Labor 41.1%, Greens 7.3% and Nick Xenophon Team 2.5%. The poll was conducted last night from a sample of 628.

UPDATE: Here’s what the BludgerTrack tables look like with the ReachTEL and Ipsos result added, including the Ipsos leadership ratings. This translates into a higher result for “others” at the expense of both major parties, with no change to the national two-party result (UPDATE: Turns out this was because I’d failed to distribute ReachTEL’s undecided results, so scratch that). The Coalition is down a seat in New South Wales and up one in Western Australia, although the remarkable swing result from the latter is only slightly modified.

bludgertrack-2016-05-21

UPDATE 2: Here’s another chart to brighten your weekend, this one tracking the state-level swings to or from the Coalition on Malcolm Turnbull’s watch. Broadly speaking, what emerges is a levelling off since March everywhere except Western Australia, where the momentum of the government’s early year slide has been maintained. The uptick to the Coalition in Queensland is a curiosity, and may simply reflect the dominance there at the moment of a single data point, namely the 1176-sample poll there from Galaxy last week (though it’s not nearly as dominant as last week’s 3019-sample state-level poll from ReachTEL is in Tasmania). You might also find evidence that the submarines contract was a steadier for the Liberals in South Australia if you’re looking at it, but the elephant in the room there is the 22.2% others vote, which crept up from 13.5% at the start of Turnbull’s tenure to 14.6% at the end of the year, and has since swelled to 22.2%. I’ll provide a more detailed display of state-level breakdowns soon, I promise.

2016-05-21-swing-by-state

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,780 comments on “ReachTEL: 50-50; Ipsos: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 4 of 36
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  1. tpof @ #36 Friday, May 20, 2016 at 7:02 pm

    guytaur @ #28 Friday, May 20, 2016 at 6:52 pm

    randlight: Laurie Oakes announcing the AFP raid breached their own national search warrant guidelines. This isn’t going to go away #ausvotes

    The AFP is held in contempt by every other police force in Australia. This is the sort of thing that shows why. If you are going to carry out such a patently politically sensitive warrant at such a patently politically sensitive time, you need to make sure that every t is crossed and every i is dotted to ensure there is no blow back because everybody will have a political or journalistic interest in looking minutely closely to catch you out.
    This is an epic operational fail.

    Since all the action was in Victoria, perhaps Dan Andrews should ask a few questions and have his wallopers raid the Vic HQ of AFP and seize any documents in relation to their raids on MPs and staffers.

  4. The NBN Co board have to report to both shareholder ministers (Cormann and Fifield) on a monthly basis. As Sam Maiden (who has reappeared after her own plod troubles) said it beggars belief that they did not know.

  5. BK.

    Telstra and their effed up ADSL have led me to dump one Modem, and spend the day reloading my Internet computer. Not happy Jan does not quite cover the situation. Should I ring somebody.
    I remember the Federal Police as checking pass at RAAF support command melbourne. Anybody could have carried in a machine and grenades. It was a long time ago but subsequent reports of so called investigations make the title “plod” sound right.
    Goodnight.

  6. Its far easier to present the affadavit evidence for a search warrant and convince some tired overworked and ill-informed Magistate than it is to defend said affadavit when the eyes of the entire political class and media cast their eyes over the same affadavit.

    Colvin, the AFP Commissioner, thinks he’s a player, but I suspect he may struggle to defend this blatant abuse of power. The added clusterfuck of an omnishambes over the illegally obtained and disseminated photos procured by the NBNs security executive’s redesignation as “special constable” (oh please …. its beyond parody) adds yet more spice.

  7. Ken

    It seems as if you and BK should form a collective and sue Telstra together.

    My ADSL only bwent off air for 10 minutes or so

  9. BK:

    How frustrating! My internet was down this morning and I had to use my mobile as a hotspot. But I came home from work this afternoon, and touch wood, it’s all been fine.

    You should contact them and ask them to credit you for the days you’ve been off the grid as it were at the very least.

  10. More Ipsos stuff.

    The latest Fairfax-Ipsos poll shows Labor and the Coalition all but deadlocked after the policy focus of the first week of the campaign became an unedifying argy-bargy in the second.
    Labor leader Bill Shorten has lifted his approval ratings slightly, while Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has lost a little ground since May 5-7.
    Over the longer term, Mr Turnbull’s disappointing performance is dragging down his support markedly, especially among younger voters. In October he was preferred as prime minister by 60 per cent of 18 to 24-year-olds and 65 per cent of those aged 25 to 39. Now the figures are 46 per cent and 42 per cent respectively. One in four of the nation’s youngest voters and one in three of those of parenting age have turned away from a leader once seen as occupying the sensible centre on economics with a progressive bent on social issues.
    In November the gap between Mr Turnbull and Mr Shorten as preferred prime minister was 51 percentage points. This week the gap is 17 points.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/policy-goes-missing-in-unedifying-week-20160519-gozgte.html#ixzz49C6E2MWh
    Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook


  12. NBN police raids a bad look for the government
    1 hr ago

    With an initiative so divisive, controversial and partisan as the National Broadband Network, yesterday’s police raids on the offices of former communications minister Stephen Conroy and his staffer’s home are an incredibly bad look for the government.

    On Friday morning Australian Federal Police Commissioner Andrew

    …… the optics of such a raid – instigated following a police complaint from NBN itself – paint the picture of a publicly funded government enterprise desperately taking extreme measures to prevent the public from hearing about what it is doing.

    .… but NBN is certainly not just any business.

    Until recently its CEO effectively reported to the Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull in his former role as Communications Minister, its CEO pursues a strategy guided by Mr Turnbull’s policy and the majority of its board can be seen as Turnbull appointments.

    The complaints date from December around the time when reports emerged about significantly increased costs for NBN to remediate copper networks needed to pursue its Fibre to the Node policy and also that the Optus HFC network it had acquired was in a state of almost unusable disrepair.

    NBN has also suffered from a steady stream of subsequent leaks, questioning its progress and policy direction.

    At the time of the December and subsequent leaks NBN and the government largely dismissed the reports as insignificant …

    ……but people don’t call the police about insignificant matters.

    … but cops ransacking a Senator’s office looking for the culprit?

    Come on.

    ….But we are in an election campaign and …….taking incredibly heavy handed retribution against leaks that made the government of the day look bad.

    The leaks……raised operational issues … which were much more damaging from a political than a commercial point of view.

    Labor is …..confident that it can reignite the popularity of its earlier, more ambitious fibre to the premise stance and paint the Turnbull government as holding back progress and innovation.

    http://www.afr.com/technology/web/nbn/nbn-police-raids-a-bad-look-for-the-government-20160520-gozo8r

  13. Spoke to a senior contact in the AFP today.

    He tells me that Colvin is known as “The Cabin Boy” because he’s always there to serve whoever is in charge.

    Says his promotion raised eyebrows, as he was relatively junior when elevated. The money for AFP Commissioner was on ex-NSW Deputy Commissioner Nick Kaldas, but he (inexplicably) didn’t get the gig.

    Also some questions to be answered regarding Colvin’s son and a traffic offence where Dad was the main character witness.

    Regarded as a lightweight who does as he is told, howsoever indirect or subtle in the telling.

    Not liked. Not respected. Company man.

  14. I am still cant quite believe this.

    An employee of a wholly owned Government entity is given “special constable”status, so that he can he can participate in a raid on an Opposition Party Senator and staffer. And then in defiance of a claim for Parliamentary privelege, be permitted by the AFP to photo and broadcast to his bosses at this wholly owned Government entity, material and documents obtained during the raid. And in full public view!

    Hell, even Nixon attempted to cover up Watergate.

  15. Re Shorten’s visit to Penrith in Lindsay, reported in the previous thread:
    [
    The Ch7 coverage was good for the ALP, had Shorten in Penrith (where Turnbull cancelled) saying wtte that the locals are perfectly friendly and Turnbull should say hello.
    ]
    This is masterful, Turnbull now cannot visit Penrith and do a shopping centre meet and greet, without the shadow of Shorten looking over him.

    Also re. The Drum today and the ‘real’ Turnbull that will happen after the election.
    We only get a say once every three years. Turnbull choose, after a number of machinations the election date, he is asking use to vote for what? We can only vote for what is in front of us, not what ‘might’ be.

  18. Rossmore

    Well can you believe what Rwnj Paul Murray on sky has this to say

    Schadenfreude George retweeted
    Josh Taylor
    24m24 minutes ago
    Josh Taylor ‏@joshgnosis
    Paul Murray is all but calling for Conroy’s resignation for having his office raided. Lulz.

  19. A spokeswoman for Communications Minister Mitch Fifield did not answer questions about whether he knew about the investigation before Thursday.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/labor-nbn-raids-prime-minister-deflects-labor-accusations-over-afps-election-campaign-investigation-20160520-gozxtj.html#ixzz49CAJQ5dy

    So did he or didn’t he? Turnbull claimed no Minister knew, so surely Mitch Ffield can quickly confirm this? It’s not like rocket science….

  20. The Libs have thrown the kitchen sink at Labor, in cahoots with their Murdoch media allies, and yet the polls are still essentially dead level at 50-50.
    Not saying Shorten will win, far from it, but I can’t see Truffles winning this huge mandate victory either…..the one that’s meant to usher in the real Malcolm post July 2.

  21. Victoria … Paul Murray is nothing if not crazy brave.
    Right now the last person to likely resign in the ALP on any issue is Steven Conroy … hes already a folk hero for turning the attention away from boats onto the NBN

  22. By the sounds of it, Shorten had a great town hall meeting in Woy Woy tonight(seat of Robertson). He’d be advised to do more of these in the run up to July 2, it contrasts nicely with Turnball not really meeting any real voters other than planted Liberal stooges

  23. Paul Murray is the one thay should resign for being a total incompetent and waste of human being who doesn’t realise what he is saying or is being totally ignorant.

  24. Shorten is well advised to do repeat visits at the same town halls in key seats. People are starting to listen, but there’s many voters yet out there that have their heads full of just plain crap.

  26. boerwar @ #70 Friday, May 20, 2016 at 7:30 pm

    Bluey Bulletin No 60 Day 60 of 103
    —BOURKE ACES IT
    Tony Burke smashed the Sales/Cormann team on 7.30 last night. Bluey noted that Sales seemed to be most subdued. She only tried to interrupt Burke twice and he simply kept talking over the top of her. Burke gave the ever-cynical Corman a caning while he was at it. Bluey reckons that a bit of real outrage is much more effective than the faked stuff.—

    I am pleased to find myself in agreement with Bluey on this which makes me rather out of step with the regular ABC haters on PB.
    I was working an ALP phone bank last night so missed 7.30 and only caught up this evening on iView.
    There was nothing to criticise in Sales performance, Burke got a fair go despite constant interruptions and attempted interruptions by Cormann and Sales a couple of times pulled up Cormann on his interrupting.
    Of course reality will not have any effect on the ABC haters. They are incurably stupid.
    Also caught up on Lateline and Dreyfus was excellent. Also enjoyed the interview with the French author now working on Charlie Hebdo. Wow she was good.

  27. It’s frankly getting harder and harder to see the Liberals winning a majority in their own right. They will need to reverse the trend, and there’s no evidence of that happening. Hung Parliament may well be the best they can hope for.

    On Paul Murray, he’s about as relevant as Bolt, probably even less so. He speaks to the converted, and even only very few of them.

  28. AFP Commissioner Colvin would have known to the nth detail that an NBN Executive would be present at the raid on Conroy and the ALP staffer.

    He would have been extensively briefed on the rationale, timing and conduct of the raid (I mean it doesnt get much bigger for an AFP Commissioner than the AFP raiding an ALP Opposition Senator during an election) prior to phoning Turnbull and Shorten to inform them about the raid.

    I suspect he would have been embedded in the investigating team all day checking that the raid was completely Kosher. And no doubt authorising Mr Steere taking photos of highly sensitive ALP election material.

    All I I can say is very, very poor judgement Commissioner Colvin.

  30. Bemused – you didnt note the merest hint of bias in Sales interrupting Burke 10 times and Corman zero times on 7.30 last night. And Corman interrupting Burke 8 times with only the mildest admonishment from Sales – as reported earlier today on PB?

  32. It’s frankly getting harder and harder to see the Liberals winning a majority in their own right.

    My own view fwiw is that they will be returned. The country can’t afford another term of this useless mob, and they certainly don’t deserve to be re-elected. But the electoral task fronting Labor in terms of seats needed to win to form govt is massive.

  33. Matt31 – right now, my bet would be on a Liberal majority of 5-10 seats.
    But 45 days to go, anything could happen, and I think most punters aren’t fully engaged or interested yet.

  34. Rossmore,
    As posted above everything must be absolutely 100% correct with the AFP raid, in fact we knew this wasn’t the case last night as Sky News were in position to film it.

  35. Confessions is correct – Labor’s got to pick up 21 seats to form a majority government, a really tall order

  37. Noting the understandable caution of PBrs about an ALP win in 2016, there’s a lot to like about the current trends …:

    Turnbull’s slow steady decline as PPM
    Shortens slow steady rise as PPM
    Turnbull’s falling approval rating
    Shorten’s rising approval rating
    Turnbull’s falling net satisfaction falling
    Shortens rising net satisfaction

    And last but not least the slow but steady rise in the ALPs PV and TPP

    And five weeks to go … chin up ALP supporters we can win it….

  39. I assume Chief Constable (or is it now Chief Agent) Colvin is angling for a LNP Senate seat at the next election.

  40. I stress, I didn’t say Labor would win 21 seats. They may, but that may well be a bridge too far. What I did say though is that I think it is getting hard to see the Coalition winning 76. They are down 2 notionally after redistribution. That means they cannot lose any more than 12 to maintain their majority. Given that I actually have a similar view to that of Briefly on WA, i.e that it will go very badly for the Coalition, that means they are going to have to successfully defend a whole lot of marginal. Not to mention that things are still drifting in the wrong direction for the Government; the only way they win a majority is that they not only stop but to some extent turn around the current trend. Ipsos is the only poll holding out a two party preferred lead for the Coalition. This, and as I have said before, I would be careful about seat level poling; it tended to overstate the Coalition at the last election.

  41. evan parsons @ #183 Friday, May 20, 2016 at 10:01 pm

    Matt31 – right now, my bet would be on a Liberal majority of 5-10 seats.
    But 45 days to go, anything could happen, and I think most punters aren’t fully engaged or interested yet.

    After the re-distributions, Labor need 19 seats to reach a total of 76 and to govern alone. They can get more than 19 on current polling, as follows: WA =4; SA = 1; Tas = 3; Vic = 3; NSW = 8; QLD = 4; NT = 1.

    In addition, it’s possible the LNP will lose at least 1 to NXT in SA.

    The LNP have 88 seats after the redistributions. They can lose 12 and still hold office in their own right. They will struggle to hold 12 seats on current polling.

  43. Not have much choice but to accept the voters vote labor cant be seen as being picky… nor wasting tax payers money.

  46. I don’t see the 2pp continuing to trend for Labor, at least not on a reading of bludgertrack. Of course last week’s poll trend doesn’t predict next weeks, but what would make me happy is seeing bludgertrack get close to or cross 51 for Labor, which means of course (due to noise) there being some polls in the 52/53 range.

    Only time will tell. If logic had anything to do with it, the Liberals would be relegated to a minor party. But the media are either partisan or incompetent, the ABC management are still infected by Howard’s culture wars and last but not least, there’s a lot of stupid, ill informed voters with their heads full of dumb ideas, many of whom have no understanding of the yawning gaps in ideology that exist between Labor and Liberal.

  47. Phillip Coorey
    10m
    Phillip Coorey‏ @PhillipCoorey
    Saturday’s offering. The Coalition’s boat comes in as economy message drowns (link: http://www.afr.com/opinion/columnists/the-coalitions-boat-comes-in-as-economy-message-drowns-20160519-gozafg) afr.com/opinion/column… via @FinancialReview

    Rashida Yosufzai‏ @Rashidajourno
    Shorten: “Well Gavin I hope that’s not your real name because complaining about the NBN, I don’t want anyone raiding your house” #auspol

  48. Paul Murray a true intellectual nobody.He would love the likes of Trump in the US.I doubt his audience at 9pm in the evening would even be 1000.

  49. Briefly, what I’d love to see is seat by seat demographics. I wish Possum were still doing this sort of thing. All I recall was there were certain groups and demographics that favour key marginal seats (for Labor) but I can’t remember what I was told.

  50. —Guardian appoints new editor to loss-making Australian site—
    “Documents obtained by The Australian in December revealed fiscal losses at Guardian Australia blew out to $14m in the 12 months ended June 30”
    Oh! Oh! Whats that? The Australian poking at the Guardian for losing money? Oh my.
    When was the last time the Australian ran a profit? 2008? And boy, dont they get all tetchy when someone mentions that!
    Newscorps, the land of negativistic numpties and noodleheads.

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