Two new national polls this evening, plus a local one from the electorate of Macarthur:
• The latest Ipsos result for the Fairfax papers, which we can now expect on Friday night rather than Sunday at least for the period of the campaign, has the Coalition two-party lead unchanged at 51-49, with the Coalition primary vote down a point to 43%, Labor up one to 34%, and the Greens steady on 14%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 51-29 to 47-30, and his approval rating is steady on 48%, with disapproval down two to 38%. Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 40% and down three to 46%. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1497, compared with the usual Ipsos survey period of Thursday to Saturday.
• Seven News brings us a new poll from ReachTEL which is the third such poll in a row to have the result at 50-50, the most recent of which was conducted a few days after the budget on May 5. However, the primary votes look better for Labor this time, with the Coalition on 42.6%, down from 44.2%; Labor on 36.6%, up from 35.1%; the Greens on 9.9%, up from 9.5; and the Nick Xenophon Team on 2.7%, down from 4.2%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead over Bill Shorten has narrowed from 57.7-42.3 to 55.6-44.4; Turnbull’s very good plus good rating is up from 28.1% to 28.6%, and his poor plus very poor rating is up from 34.5% to 35.1%; the corresponding results for Bill Shorten record a solid improvement, with very good plus good up from 24.6% to 27.9%, and poor plus very poor down from 44.0% to 38.4%. The automated phone poll was recorded last night from a sample of 2407 – full results can be found here.
• There is also a separate ReachTEL poll for the Macarthur electorate, which the Russell Matheson holds for the Liberals on a post-redistribution margin of 3.3%, down from 11.4% at the 2013 election. Here ReachTEL credits Labor with a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred. After distributing results from a secondary question prompting the 10.7%, the primary votes are Liberal 41.4%, Labor 41.1%, Greens 7.3% and Nick Xenophon Team 2.5%. The poll was conducted last night from a sample of 628.
UPDATE: Here’s what the BludgerTrack tables look like with the ReachTEL and Ipsos result added, including the Ipsos leadership ratings. This translates into a higher result for “others” at the expense of both major parties, with no change to the national two-party result (UPDATE: Turns out this was because I’d failed to distribute ReachTEL’s undecided results, so scratch that). The Coalition is down a seat in New South Wales and up one in Western Australia, although the remarkable swing result from the latter is only slightly modified.
UPDATE 2: Here’s another chart to brighten your weekend, this one tracking the state-level swings to or from the Coalition on Malcolm Turnbull’s watch. Broadly speaking, what emerges is a levelling off since March everywhere except Western Australia, where the momentum of the government’s early year slide has been maintained. The uptick to the Coalition in Queensland is a curiosity, and may simply reflect the dominance there at the moment of a single data point, namely the 1176-sample poll there from Galaxy last week (though it’s not nearly as dominant as last week’s 3019-sample state-level poll from ReachTEL is in Tasmania). You might also find evidence that the submarines contract was a steadier for the Liberals in South Australia if you’re looking at it, but the elephant in the room there is the 22.2% others vote, which crept up from 13.5% at the start of Turnbull’s tenure to 14.6% at the end of the year, and has since swelled to 22.2%. I’ll provide a more detailed display of state-level breakdowns soon, I promise.
vic:
So much of all of this stinks to high heaven. Turnbull’s tenure as Comms Minister was obviously worse than what we understood if this is the lengths they are prepared to go to in order to shield his performance from public view.
poroti
[Parsnips are compulsory !! Turnips not so much.]
I’d have to drive to the Fyshwick Markets it seems.
Colesworth don’t do them.
A few Brussels Sprouts and some beans will do. ( and mint sauce to add to the gravy. I’ve got a thriving pot of it a the moment.)
Fess
As I always suspected, Turnbull did not learn from his godwin gretch imbroglio
http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-20/nbn-agrees-to-destroy-photos/7433574
The NBNCo has agreed to destroy the photos ‘under duress’ after the AFP determined (correctly) that they should not have been taken in the first place…
What the hell do they mean by ‘under duress’? Are they suggesting the AFP threatened them? Maybe Stephen Conroy threatened to have Robert Ray sit on them?
Who is advising these guys?
EG Theodore
Labor should order an immediate investigation
question @ #100 Friday, May 20, 2016 at 7:56 pm
………………………………………………….
Which is why Labor is seeking undertakings from the AFP that the data has either been sealed in the Senate or destroyed.
IF AFP give such an undertaking and its found the copies are still held by NBN or others – it will be on for young and old.
If they can’t give such an undertaking, they still have problems.
Then — someone might leak the photos.
Keystone cops at work. Again.
‘fess
[she asked for my cloud sign in. I told her I didn’t have one]
A good policy.
The NBN pr lady said that the AFP gave permission for the happy snaps to be taken.
Another possibilty the nbn wally used a scanning app, some (like evernote) sync to other devices. I can scan a document with my iPhone and it will be on my desktop in minutes.
From a simple Google search …..
Here’s the Linkedin profile Simon Lee-Steere, General Manager Security Investigations at NBNCo.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/simon-lee-steere-19199134?authType=NAME_SEARCH&authToken=-4U7&locale=en_US&srchid=1223986521463737748452&srchindex=1&srchtotal=974&trk=vsrp_people_res_name&trkInfo=VSRPsearchId%3A1223986521463737748452%2CVSRPtargetId%3A121867453%2CVSRPcmpt%3Aprimary%2CVSRPnm%3Atrue%2CauthType%3ANAME_SEARCH
This looks like the NBN dude who took the photos (illegally) and disseminated them (illegaly) to his bosses at NBNCo during the police raid raid on the ALP staffer last night (and named in the Sky news report) , aided and abetted by the AFP.
An ex-cop from Victoria, last job at Crown Casino
“A specialist in the field of security and investigations, I have more than 22 year experience in high level risk management for both government and private enterprise. I have a proven track record of operating in senior executive roles, effecting positive cultural change and building engaged and solutions focussed teams. As a highly experienced and tertiary qualified business leader I am able to articulate and effect risk based outcomes with positive commercial benefits.
In my current role as the General Manager Security Investigations at nbn I lead a highly skilled team across a range of Security related disciplines including corporate investigations, Cyber Security Operations Centre (CSOC) and Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT) nationwide for Australia’s largest infrastructure project.
Experience
General Manager Security Investigations
nbn™ Australia
November 2015 – Present (7 months)””
Labor needs to ask the direct and simple question ” Did the communications minister know that the investigation was underway.
Both Turnbull and Colvin today stated that the government only found out about the investigation yesterday.
That is bollocks. Both have left themselves open to a whole world of pain.
All they had to say was yes the government was aware a investigation was underway but the government was only made aware of the raids yesterday. Simple and sensible. But, for some reason that is not what they stated.
It is usually the coverup that is worse than the crime and causes so much more damage. The minister will have to make a statement re his knowledge of vents sooner or later. Labor will not let it go.
The truth will be revealed and both Turnbull and the AFP will have no credibility which will mean nothing that is thrown at labor from now on will have any real credibility.
Total cock up.
My uninformed take anyway.
Cheers.
I’m sure that Bill Shorten and the rest of the Labor members in the Reps and the Senate are working their butts off so that the Libs can “have a narrow win” as some here almost seem to be cheering for. They say that Opposition is the pits and I am sure Bill Shorten would take a win, any win, rather than another 3 years on the opposition benches. Government for either parties in the next parliament will be very hard indeed but I know where I would rather be sitting – and that is on the Treasury Benches. It is unlikely, by the look of it, that neither Labor nor the LNP can look to have the Senate in a majority but this has been the case for most parties who have a majority in the Lower House for ages.
People shouldn’t be referring to this Mr Steere as an NBN employee. According to the AFP, he was a sworn special constable for the purposes of these raids, so the AFP is responsible for anything he might have done wrong. No different to when your two year old breaks things in a shop.
That’s not to say that others at the NBN mightn’t have done wrong, for example if they directed or requested Mr Steere to send them the documents.
They will all have time to think about this before they are called before the Senate Privileges Committee.
Just having a look at the Reachtel stats and no matter what combination I use, I just can’t get 50/50 for the last poll. It seems to be 51/49 LNP or perhaps in 52/48. Tonights poll looks like a true 50/50 though.
Ctar on tablet’s… Yep.
Fess, Gmail probably pre loaded on your android. If you can find the settings in the photo gallery app you should see the backup/sync stuff.
IF the nbn co staffer was present to verify documents why was it necessary for that person to photograph them?
Simon Lee-Steere leaves Crown Casino to work for NBN within weeks the AFP are called in to investigate leaks. How coincidental.
The AFP HQ in Latrobe Street Melbourne between King and William Streets seems to have a fleet of brand new Commodore wagons parked outside. I don’t think they have actually ever moved.
No plod would ever leave their entire ‘fleet’ out in the main street.
Rossmore:
It doesn’t instill a lot of confidence that he’s an ex Victorian police officer!!
Question:
Thanks for that, I’ll check it out.
The ALPs lawyer has also smartly for the affadavit in support of the search warrant of Conroy’s office and the ALP staffer …. that’ll be an interesting document when it’s published
A dour match at the ‘G
Swans 1,2.8 to Hawks 0.2.2 at 5 min in the second quarter
Plus a hole in the Hawks’ coaching box.
bugger – I did refresh after watching footy but it did not show the far more informative recent posts and I now see the NBN co dude identity and impeccable quals. Nite
Lovely quotes
I am going to miss that Liberal candidate.
We need some humour in the campaign
Contrary to Malcolm Turnbull, PM, I find it quite beyond belief that no LNP Government Minister was aware that the Government owned NBNCo, with two Ministers on its board, was aware a referral had been made to the AFP re the NBN leaks. If they didn’t know, they are bloody lousy Board members and if they weren’t told, the NBN CEO should be offering their resignation.
It’s like a script from House of Cards.
I hope the ALP are FOIing the NBN Board minutes from December onwards…
I hope the ALP has received, or will be demanding, from the AFP a full and complete description of all the documents illegally photographed by their “special constable” and onforwarded to the NBN.
I have heard a rumour – and I have no way of knowing whether or not it’s true – that there have been reports that an unreleased ALP policy relating to broadband was one of the documents in question. If that’s so, and especially if such a document is leaked by the government some time, we have a right to know what role the AFP might have played in that.
Sydney by 34 in the 18 minute mark Q2
Several more holes in the Hawk’s box
The now former Liberal candidate for Freo was in now way humorous. His comments and his attitudes suggest he’s all kinds of dick, and we should instead be thankful he’s gone from the public discourse.
Doyley – yep agree with that.
The LNP have outsmarted themselves on defending the AFP midnight raid anf Turnbull will have egg all over his face when the truth comes out.
So what is NBNCo? From here: http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/BudgetReview201314/NBN
May be wrong, but dont believe the corporate structure has changed from the ALP days – i.e. that it is a wholly owned Government entity…
“The project is managed by the NBN Co Limited (NBN Co), a government-owned entity which is classed as a government business enterprise (GBE). The Commonwealth established NBN Co to design, build and operate the network. The company sits in the Broadband, Communications and the Digital Economy portfolio, reporting to the Minister for Broadband, Communications and the Digital Economy, Senator Stephen Conroy, along with the Minister for Finance and Deregulation, Senator Penny Wong. An NBN legislative framework sets out the structure:
The regulatory framework for the National Broadband Network (NBN) is established through the National Broadband Network Companies Act 2011 (NBN Companies Act) and the Telecommunications Legislation Amendment (National Broadband Network Measures—Access Arrangements) Act 2011 (NBN Access Act) which add to the existing generic telecommunications regulatory framework. The Acts were passed by the parliament on 28 March 2011 and received royal assent on 12 April 2011. All of the provisions are now operational.
These provisions allow for the company structure and ownership, competitive access arrangements, industry codes and standards. The NBN Companies Act provides that the Australian Government will retain full ownership of NBN Co until the national broadband network rollout is complete.
These arrangements are further elaborated upon in the NBN Co’s Statement of Corporate Intent, which was tabled in Parliament on 9 October 2012.
NBN Co is expected to generate money for the government in the future, so the funds given to it now are viewed as an investment in terms of the Budget, and the money spent does not fall within the budget accounts. Rather, as a GBE, the NBN Co produces its own annual reports in much the same way as Australia Post.
If there is any hint of confidential Labor campaign material being improper obtained through this, and I’m not alleging it, then this would cease to be considered a Godwin Grech moment and would be more along the lines of a Watergate
Lol! is one uncle Arfur??
A few thoughts on the NBN plod:
He probably doesn’t have the technical expertise to determine what documents are relevant to the search. So he may well have photographed them and sent them to someone who does.
The documents he photographed may provide enough information to identify the leaker. Even if the photographs are deleted this information cannot be undeleted from people who might have seen the documents. I wonder what the implications are if action is taken against an employee based on information illegally obtained (if the documents were subject to parliamentary privilege.
Does anyone know for sure what photographs were taken and transmitted? Can we be sure the photographs only related to documents relevant to the search warrant?
Oh, and the ministers are shareholder ministers of NBN, they are not board members.
Calling all lawyers
What action could the ALP take to get Colvin and Trunbull into a court before the election – to swear on oath?
If that occurred then serious heads roll at the AFP. If its a possibility then i would imagine the ALP will be seeking confirmation from the AFP (not NBN Co) if what documents were photographed and transmitted. IF the Libs do get hold of something like an unannounced ALP broadband policy they will have to be very careful how they use that info. If they blurted something that they could only have found out that way they are toast. More likely they keep quiet and use it to pre-prepare a response and even there they have to be careful as it would be easy for the ALP to lay a trap for them.
B.C.
One would have thought that given the “special constable” was there solely to identify which documents were relevant to the search then the person sworn in to the role would be someone who did “have the technical expertise to determine what documents are relevant to the search”.
Jeff Gauvin @JeffersonObama
May 19 Polls:
■CNN: Clinton +13
■USA T: Clinton +11
■CBS: Clinton +6
■PPP: Clinton +6
■NBC: Clinton +11
■FoxN: Trump +3
■Reuters: Clinton +5
Question
[Ctar on tablet’s… Yep.]
I don’t have a ‘tablet’.
A Win ten phone and an old fashioned lap-top (shit-house screen but faster than the 4 ICL’s under the Ministry of Defense (the ‘Yellow Submarine’ computer Centre where I was always guarded but I could tickle it. The Guard’s knew ‘zip’. I got answers on Roger Hollis and Christopher Wreford-Browns’ ‘parabola ‘. Two Mk 7’s ans don’t touch the escorts.)
It didn’t, however, work out well.
Pedant and Imacca – It seems highly likely that Labor’s unreleased broadband policy was one of the documents photographed and subsequently deleted:
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/may/20/labor-furious-that-nbn-staff-member-sent-photos-of-police-raid-to-colleagues
confessions @ #129 Friday, May 20, 2016 at 8:44 pm
Quite right!
Presumably to do so would be a breach of parliamentary privilege.
Rod Hagen
Friday, May 20, 2016 at 6:58 pm
[These raids aren’t about anything more than suppressing leaks about Turnbull’s own incompetence as Minister Responsible for the NBN.]
I thought Turnbull was very competent as minister, responsible for following orders and totally fu*king up the NBN. The cost and ongoing maintenance of the Turnbull armoires clusterfu#k must be a sight to behold…..
If the AFP has admitted that the photos should not have been taken, why has the AFP not seized the phone and investigated to whom the photos were sent? It was only the one NBN staffer that was authorised as a deputy, what about the apparent illegal recipients of the photos?
Tom.
Just saw the Drum and have to say I didn’t mind that former Liberal minister as much as some seem to
I didn’t buy the “watch this (Turnbull) space” and don’t know why the rest of the panel bought into that line. But apart from that he just seemed like the kind of classical liberal that has been exterminated from the modern Liberal party.
I am thoroughly pissed off with Telstra!
B.C thanks for that – so thew two Ministers are “shareholder board members”, would the Minister as “shareholder Board members”” routinely receive the Board Minutes??
Whatever, it is still a wholly owned Government entity. If they didn”t know, they should have…
If the LNP win the next election then they have three years to consolidate their hold on the AFP, Border Force and other National Security entities. Not good for democracy at all.
There may or may not be a Dawn Patrol in the morning. It’s up to Telstra – but I’m not holding my breath!