ReachTEL: 50-50; Ipsos: 51-49 to Coalition

Two new national polls do nothing to dispel perceptions of a tight race, and they’re accompanied by another result showing Labor with its nose in front in the key outer Sydney seat of Macarthur.

Two new national polls this evening, plus a local one from the electorate of Macarthur:

• The latest Ipsos result for the Fairfax papers, which we can now expect on Friday night rather than Sunday at least for the period of the campaign, has the Coalition two-party lead unchanged at 51-49, with the Coalition primary vote down a point to 43%, Labor up one to 34%, and the Greens steady on 14%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 51-29 to 47-30, and his approval rating is steady on 48%, with disapproval down two to 38%. Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 40% and down three to 46%. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1497, compared with the usual Ipsos survey period of Thursday to Saturday.

• Seven News brings us a new poll from ReachTEL which is the third such poll in a row to have the result at 50-50, the most recent of which was conducted a few days after the budget on May 5. However, the primary votes look better for Labor this time, with the Coalition on 42.6%, down from 44.2%; Labor on 36.6%, up from 35.1%; the Greens on 9.9%, up from 9.5; and the Nick Xenophon Team on 2.7%, down from 4.2%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead over Bill Shorten has narrowed from 57.7-42.3 to 55.6-44.4; Turnbull’s very good plus good rating is up from 28.1% to 28.6%, and his poor plus very poor rating is up from 34.5% to 35.1%; the corresponding results for Bill Shorten record a solid improvement, with very good plus good up from 24.6% to 27.9%, and poor plus very poor down from 44.0% to 38.4%. The automated phone poll was recorded last night from a sample of 2407 – full results can be found here.

• There is also a separate ReachTEL poll for the Macarthur electorate, which the Russell Matheson holds for the Liberals on a post-redistribution margin of 3.3%, down from 11.4% at the 2013 election. Here ReachTEL credits Labor with a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred. After distributing results from a secondary question prompting the 10.7%, the primary votes are Liberal 41.4%, Labor 41.1%, Greens 7.3% and Nick Xenophon Team 2.5%. The poll was conducted last night from a sample of 628.

UPDATE: Here’s what the BludgerTrack tables look like with the ReachTEL and Ipsos result added, including the Ipsos leadership ratings. This translates into a higher result for “others” at the expense of both major parties, with no change to the national two-party result (UPDATE: Turns out this was because I’d failed to distribute ReachTEL’s undecided results, so scratch that). The Coalition is down a seat in New South Wales and up one in Western Australia, although the remarkable swing result from the latter is only slightly modified.

bludgertrack-2016-05-21

UPDATE 2: Here’s another chart to brighten your weekend, this one tracking the state-level swings to or from the Coalition on Malcolm Turnbull’s watch. Broadly speaking, what emerges is a levelling off since March everywhere except Western Australia, where the momentum of the government’s early year slide has been maintained. The uptick to the Coalition in Queensland is a curiosity, and may simply reflect the dominance there at the moment of a single data point, namely the 1176-sample poll there from Galaxy last week (though it’s not nearly as dominant as last week’s 3019-sample state-level poll from ReachTEL is in Tasmania). You might also find evidence that the submarines contract was a steadier for the Liberals in South Australia if you’re looking at it, but the elephant in the room there is the 22.2% others vote, which crept up from 13.5% at the start of Turnbull’s tenure to 14.6% at the end of the year, and has since swelled to 22.2%. I’ll provide a more detailed display of state-level breakdowns soon, I promise.

2016-05-21-swing-by-state

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,780 comments on “ReachTEL: 50-50; Ipsos: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. Interesting to see that even with all the fuss that AS are not near top of list of concerns.

    Confirming our instincts that Dutton has overreached

  2. Kiera‏ @KieraGorden
    Part of Sherry Sufi’s racist/sexist rant that lost him his job today. Libs really know how to pick ’em #VILE #AusPol

  3. BernardKeane: I know the NBN has been a debacle on its core business @TurnbullMalcolm but it appears to have a booming sideline in photography. Kudos.

  4. “Ipsos’s polls through the campaign period will be conducted from Tuesday to Thursday and published on Saturday.”

    Which unfortunately means that much of the reporting of the AFP raid will be outside the polling period.

  5. tom hawkins @ #21 Friday, May 20, 2016 at 6:47 pm

    “Ipsos’s polls through the campaign period will be conducted from Tuesday to Thursday and published on Saturday.”
    Which unfortunately means that much of the reporting of the AFP raid will be outside the polling period.

    But not for Newspoll if it continues its existing timetable.

  6. If only I could draw.

    Two boats racing down a river, one a sleek sloop captained by a dashing Bill Shorten, rapidly overtaking an overloaded, stinking garbage scow steered by a bug eyed disheveled and desperate Turnbull yelling at his crew of Colvin, Fifield et al “Can’t you shovel it on him any faster!?”

  7. Someone here said a day or two ago that they were confident Labor would take Macarthur. Looks like they might be right.

  8. randlight: Laurie Oakes announcing the AFP raid breached their own national search warrant guidelines. This isn’t going to go away #ausvotes

  9. “Ipsos confirmed on 16 May that there would be a poll in Fairfax papers tomorrow”

    Still too early for a proper guesstimate for how the AFP raid has been judged but whatever, we take what we can get.

  10. Just catching the replay of the Drum on 24. Who’s that idiot on Julia Baird’s right? Why does he and the Buzzfeed guy think that Malcolm will some how ‘bloom’ after the election? Let the ‘real Malcolm out? What will he have a mandate for, beyond a continuation of the Abbott agenda? More likely in my opinion is that as soon as possible after he’s got them a second term, Malcolm’s colleagues will chuck pretent Abbott for the real one.

  11. No, PM. Police raids on political opponents in an election campaign aren’t about “National Security”. They’re about your political survival.

    These raids aren’t about anything more than suppressing leaks about Turnbull’s own incompetence as Minister Responsible for the NBN.

    When police start raiding Opposition parties in the middle of an election campaign to track down leaks about the Prime Minister’s own previous incompetence we should all be very, very worried. When said PM tries to justify the raids using “National Security” as the justification we should be very frightened indeed!

  12. Tight race this – I walked past Kevin Bonham couple of hours ago past the local overpriced grocer I should have quizzed him re a prediction

  13. Everything they have done to destroy Labor is back firing on them and its up to the public and the senate to be up and in arms about this!

  14. guytaur @ #28 Friday, May 20, 2016 at 6:52 pm

    randlight: Laurie Oakes announcing the AFP raid breached their own national search warrant guidelines. This isn’t going to go away #ausvotes

    The AFP is held in contempt by every other police force in Australia. This is the sort of thing that shows why. If you are going to carry out such a patently politically sensitive warrant at such a patently politically sensitive time, you need to make sure that every t is crossed and every i is dotted to ensure there is no blow back because everybody will have a political or journalistic interest in looking minutely closely to catch you out.

    This is an epic operational fail.

  15. sortius‏ @sortius
    This raid is looking more like #NBN acting at the behest of Turnbull to steal Labor’s policy documents. This is corruption #ausvotes

  16. There hasn’t been any movement back to the Coalition for a long time which is a bad sign for them. Any movement is small but it’s all towards Labor.

  17. When said PM tries to justify the raids using “National Security” as the justification we should be very frightened indeed!

    I sincerely hope it backfires on them, I really do.

  18. If the swing in the marginals to Labor is 4.3% (as measured in Macarthur) then they would win 19 seats up to and including Brisbane. If they also win 4 WA seats (Cowan, Hasluck, Burt and Swan) then Labor will take 23 seats and form the next Government.

    The LNP can lose 12 seats before they lose their majority. Unless they can make up some ground, they are cactus.

  19. Philip Soos‏ @PhilipSoos
    Australia’s housing price to inflation and price to income ratios continue to rise.

  20. The AFP is held in contempt by every other police force in Australia.

    This is certainly true of the WA Police members tasked with security I spoke to when we had the Prince and Duchess visit here last year. Those police officers thought the AFP were a joke and not up to the business of actual police work.

  21. [randlight: Laurie Oakes announcing the AFP raid breached their own national search
    warrant guidelines. This isn’t going to go away #ausvotes]

    Laurie must be reading comments at The Guardian. I posted the below this afternoon:

    Murpharoo:

    Despite Labor’s efforts to maximise the opportunity associated with the material, the government’s reaction is strongly suggestive of the notion that it had nothing at all to do with these police raids.

    This assertion is simply not believable. If it is true then the AFP is even more incompetent then the Coalition.

    All we need do is refer to the AFP’s own guidelines:

    http://www.afp.gov.au/~/media/afp/pdf/ips-foi-documents/ips/publication-list/afp%20national%20guideline%20for%20execution%20of%20search%20warrants%20where%20parliamentary%20privilege%20involved.pdf

    6.5 Requires the executing officer to contact the member prior to executing the search, unless doing so would compromise the investigation. Unless the AFP believes a Senior Labor Senator would destroy evidence they have contravened their own guidelines.

    6.6 Requires the executing officer to conduct the search when the member or the member’s staff are in the office. It also requires the officer to give the member sufficient time to contact a lawyer or Presiding Officer to determine if the materials sought under the search warrant are covered by privilege.

    Again, the AFP, in executing the search at the time and in the manner they did, breached their own guidelines. It’s clear that the AFP is deeply compromised by its relationship with the Liberal Party and that party’s relationship with the Murdoch media. Turnbull has been caught out too many times telling outright and provable lies. To take his word now, that the government knew nothing about the raid is ludicrous in the extreme.

    What we witnessed last night was fascism, pure and simple. An agent of national security acted on behalf of a government corporation to cause political damage to the opposition during an election campaign. The sooner the crypto-fascists in the Liberal Party are driven out of office the better off we will all be.

  22. While I continue to believe firmly that Labor will record a solid victory in this election, the events of the last week make me think that, purely from a Labor viewpoint, it would not be bad for Labor to lose the election, preferably narrowly.

    This mob are utterly incompetent. If the Coalition does win the election, any continuing fantasies that Turnbull will show the real Malcolm with his own mandate will be blown away like dandelion seeds incredibly quickly. He will either be dumped or limp along.

    But I cannot think of a single Liberal at the moment who has the slightest background showing the competence and clear thinking needed to even vaguely competently run a government. Morrison has been shown to be a fool and an oaf. The rest – gawwwd.

    So Labor would be in power for a generation if it won the following election. Unfortunately, it would take that long to get Australia back to where it should have been if it had not been totally effed by the Coalition.

  23. Has the device on which the NBN staffer took images of documents been impounded or destroyed? Were any AFP staff complicit in allowing them to be taken?

  24. Zoidlord @ 6.35 pm: That link provided by Mr Keane doesn’t even do full justice to the magnitude of the AFP stuff up in the Seven network raid case. After the linked story was published, the AFP was cleaned up by Seven in the Federal Court, it being held that they had materially stuffed up the search warrant on which they had relied. And then they had to front a Senate Committee, where they were flayed in the public hearings by Nick Xenophon, and again in the Committee report.

    I am totally unimpressed by the way Commissioner Colvin has handled this. If he thinks that actions of this kind are consistent with the AFP’s obligation to be politically neutral, especially at election time, then he must be a fool, pure and simple.

  25. rod hagen @ #46 Friday, May 20, 2016 at 7:11 pm

    Has the device on which the NBN staffer took images of documents been impounded or destroyed? Were any AFP staff complicit in allowing them to be taken?

    Sounds like a camera phone, in which case you could obliterate the device, but the photos would already be in cyberspace.

  26. RH

    If the device used to take the photos was a smartphone there are automatic backup copies to the Cloud. PLUS the report says the photos were sent to the NBN Co Offices. This to me implies a smart phone

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