ReachTEL: 50-50; Ipsos: 51-49 to Coalition

Two new national polls do nothing to dispel perceptions of a tight race, and they’re accompanied by another result showing Labor with its nose in front in the key outer Sydney seat of Macarthur.

Two new national polls this evening, plus a local one from the electorate of Macarthur:

• The latest Ipsos result for the Fairfax papers, which we can now expect on Friday night rather than Sunday at least for the period of the campaign, has the Coalition two-party lead unchanged at 51-49, with the Coalition primary vote down a point to 43%, Labor up one to 34%, and the Greens steady on 14%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 51-29 to 47-30, and his approval rating is steady on 48%, with disapproval down two to 38%. Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 40% and down three to 46%. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1497, compared with the usual Ipsos survey period of Thursday to Saturday.

• Seven News brings us a new poll from ReachTEL which is the third such poll in a row to have the result at 50-50, the most recent of which was conducted a few days after the budget on May 5. However, the primary votes look better for Labor this time, with the Coalition on 42.6%, down from 44.2%; Labor on 36.6%, up from 35.1%; the Greens on 9.9%, up from 9.5; and the Nick Xenophon Team on 2.7%, down from 4.2%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead over Bill Shorten has narrowed from 57.7-42.3 to 55.6-44.4; Turnbull’s very good plus good rating is up from 28.1% to 28.6%, and his poor plus very poor rating is up from 34.5% to 35.1%; the corresponding results for Bill Shorten record a solid improvement, with very good plus good up from 24.6% to 27.9%, and poor plus very poor down from 44.0% to 38.4%. The automated phone poll was recorded last night from a sample of 2407 – full results can be found here.

• There is also a separate ReachTEL poll for the Macarthur electorate, which the Russell Matheson holds for the Liberals on a post-redistribution margin of 3.3%, down from 11.4% at the 2013 election. Here ReachTEL credits Labor with a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred. After distributing results from a secondary question prompting the 10.7%, the primary votes are Liberal 41.4%, Labor 41.1%, Greens 7.3% and Nick Xenophon Team 2.5%. The poll was conducted last night from a sample of 628.

UPDATE: Here’s what the BludgerTrack tables look like with the ReachTEL and Ipsos result added, including the Ipsos leadership ratings. This translates into a higher result for “others” at the expense of both major parties, with no change to the national two-party result (UPDATE: Turns out this was because I’d failed to distribute ReachTEL’s undecided results, so scratch that). The Coalition is down a seat in New South Wales and up one in Western Australia, although the remarkable swing result from the latter is only slightly modified.

bludgertrack-2016-05-21

UPDATE 2: Here’s another chart to brighten your weekend, this one tracking the state-level swings to or from the Coalition on Malcolm Turnbull’s watch. Broadly speaking, what emerges is a levelling off since March everywhere except Western Australia, where the momentum of the government’s early year slide has been maintained. The uptick to the Coalition in Queensland is a curiosity, and may simply reflect the dominance there at the moment of a single data point, namely the 1176-sample poll there from Galaxy last week (though it’s not nearly as dominant as last week’s 3019-sample state-level poll from ReachTEL is in Tasmania). You might also find evidence that the submarines contract was a steadier for the Liberals in South Australia if you’re looking at it, but the elephant in the room there is the 22.2% others vote, which crept up from 13.5% at the start of Turnbull’s tenure to 14.6% at the end of the year, and has since swelled to 22.2%. I’ll provide a more detailed display of state-level breakdowns soon, I promise.

2016-05-21-swing-by-state

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,780 comments on “ReachTEL: 50-50; Ipsos: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 2 of 36
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  2. The AFP head wally tried to deflect the privilege element at his presser he said wtte that the AFP did not care about privilege until it was claimed. Another stuff up it seems.

  3. Rod Hagan,
    Any non AFP person who attends a raid does so under the direct supervision of AFP officers.

    This development is a full on debacle.

    Cheers.

  4. jasonthetin: Bill Shorten praises year 6 student Matthew for his question about whether he will actually implement coding in schools #ausvotes2016

  5. TPoF:

    I don’t believe the country can afford another term of such incompetence. Just imagine the damage they could inflict in that period.

  6. If Labor win 4 in Perth, then the Libs can lose at most 8 more sates before they lose their majority. The 8th most marginal LNP-held seat is Eden-Monaro (NSW LIB 2.9%). If the swing against them in NSW is as measured by Reachtel in Macarthur (4.3%) then they are at risk of losing these additional NSW seats: Lindsay 3.0%, Robertson 3.1%, Page 3.1%, Reid 3.3%, Macarthur 3.4% and Gilmore 3.8%, a total of 6 seats. Such a swing in NSW would defeat the LNP, to say nothing of other possible gains in QLD, Victoria, SA and Tasmania.

    Labor continue to consolidate at a point where they will more likely win than lose.

  7. I was aware Ipsos had moved to Sat. I meant it’s a bit early in the evening? Last time was quite early but not as early as ghost’s tweet.

  8. If the device used to take the photos was a smartphone there are automatic backup copies to the Cloud.

    Was it an iPhone?

  9. confessions @ #55 Friday, May 20, 2016 at 7:17 pm

    TPoF:
    I don’t believe the country can afford another term of such incompetence. Just imagine the damage they could inflict in that period.

    I certainly don’t think so. And unlike the Coalition after almost three years of power, Labor are actually ready to start governing on Day 1. But it is a sort of comfort to know that this mob are so incompetent that, unlike Howard or Key or Cameron, they will blow themselves up along with the country – and not just the country.

  13. William, should we s’pose that if IPSOS is going to be published by Fairfax tomorrow then at least the headline numbers will be out tonight?

  14. While I continue to believe firmly that Labor will record a solid victory in this election, the events of the last week make me think that, purely from a Labor viewpoint, it would not be bad for Labor to lose the election, preferably narrowly.

    TPOF

    My view is still that the Libs will win narrowly – and that for Labor that would be the best outcome (for similar reasons to what you have outlined). The total ineptness of the Liberal economic agenda will be on full display by 2019 and Labor will win easily, possibly in a landslide.

  18. No one who supports Gonski. Medicare. The NDIS. Social Security etc can afford another 3 years of this government,

  19. Yes, (re iphones etc). I was asking rhetorically really. It seems to me that there are a whole string of related questions which Australian voters need urgent answers to over this matter from Turnbull. This was, after all, an exercise aimed at covering leaks about his own previous alleged incompetence, and which involve matters of very substantial, very straightforward, democratic principle.

  20. Bluey Bulletin No 60 Day 60 of 103

    Bluey has noted some rather insensitive remarks by some Bludgers about his legs situation and urges them to stay away from the beach for health reasons. Bluey needs only one toe in the water for what he has in mind.

    Bluey was entranced by the way in which the plods managed to drag Turnbull’s NBN management failures to the fore. Bluey reckons the Feds will fuck it up.

    OZSTAZI DOES KEYSTONE COPS
    Bluey has been concerned about several trends during the Abbott/Turnbull governments. These include the progressive destruction of privacy, the increased scope for passive and active domestic spying, the reduction of rights such as habeas corpus, the ever more punitive laws against whistle-blowing, progressive militarization of the civil space, and the ever-increasing abuse of state agencies for party political purposes.
    Bluey notes that the pattern of AFP activity is now beyond any shadow of a doubt politicized. Bluey has previously pointed out that the AFP is getting an additional $200 million in the Budget. The Government appoints the AFP boss. Bluey reckons that the Liberals’ pleas that the AFP is entirely independent does not pass the pub test.
    Someone has promised that the ‘negatives’ of the illegal photograph will be destroyed. How 19th Century!

    AFP LEAKS
    The AFP is going to investigate the leaks of the AFP to the MSM. Bluey has profound faith in the AFP’s ability to investigate its own leaks. What could possibly go wrong?

    BOURKE ACES IT
    Tony Burke smashed the Sales/Cormann team on 7.30 last night. Bluey noted that Sales seemed to be most subdued. She only tried to interrupt Burke twice and he simply kept talking over the top of her. Burke gave the ever-cynical Corman a caning while he was at it. Bluey reckons that a bit of real outrage is much more effective than the faked stuff.

    MR $3.70, BY GUMS, BY GUMS
    Bluey understands that Dirty Dick has been besieged by requests from wannabe au pairs who are throwing themselves at him for a promised $3.70 an hour. Apparently they are attracted by his hipster black tank top and by his super cool funky dude tight pants. Bluey understands that Dirty Dick has been heard to mutter, ‘Let them eat chickpea burgers.’

    PEFO
    Bluey reckons that the Budget and PEFO are built on a quicksand of very brave calls on iron ore price, etc, etc. Bluey call BS. Bluey reckons that whoever forms government is going to be diddled AGAIN by Treasury getting revenue estimates too high.

    HALF AN AUSSIE IS BETTER THAN NONE
    Bluey reckons the plane prang was not the full monte gift to Turnbull’s terrism FUD campaign, but that half an Aussie was still enough to exhume Bishop from her campaign graveyard. Bluey reckons that Turnbull and Bishop have a bit of a love hate relationship but without the love part. Bluey notes that Sky in particular had experts making up 100% shit about the crash because there are only two factoids and they contradict each other. Gillan even managed to insert an ‘absolutely terrifying’ during the interview. Well, no Ashley, not really.

    THIRD PARTY CAMPAIGN
    As expected the Big End of Town will be running a third party campaign in favour of very rich people becoming richer still. Bluey has been told that the campaign theme will be ‘Greed is good for the rich but bad for the poor.’

    SUFICIENT UNTO THE DAY
    Sufi reckons there are a few issues with his past history. Bluey reckons sure, and with Sufi’s present history as well. Bluey reckons bye bye and no thanks for coming.

    PUFF ADDER
    Bluey reckons that Puffy has to tie a chop around her neck to get the family dog to play with her.…

    LENORE TO THE FORE
    Bluey was trying to recall whether a major newspaper in Australia had ever been edited by a woman. Anyway, Bluey has profound respect for Taylor and would vote for her were she to be running for POTUS.

    CUT AND RUN V STAND AND FIGHT
    Says it all today. Shorten fronted up. No Ticker Turnbull bolted.

    ROPE A DOPE
    Bluey reckons that it is a bit odd that JBishop has been swept up in a snowstorm in a restaurant.

    RUGGER BUGGERS
    Bluey may not have heard eight but he thought he heard Kings School representative defend the rugger bugger boys monstering rams. ‘The lads did not actually sodomise the rams, so no harm done, really.’
    Bluey reckons that the RSPCA are going to make sure that Kings get a jolly old rogering on this one.

    POLLING
    Bluey reckons go you good thing! Shorten! But Labor still needs another 2% 2PP.

    Verdict for the day: Labor
    Cumulative verdict: Labor 37 Liberal 23

  21. Smart phones would normally only send stuff to a cloud if they’ve been configured to do so: on my understanding it isn’t automatic. With an iPhone you have to set up an iCloud account and id.

  23. guytaur @ #68 Friday, May 20, 2016 at 7:28 pm

    No one who supports Gonski. Medicare. The NDIS. Social Security etc can afford another 3 years of this government,

    Or action on climate change. Or tax reform. Or the real NBN. Or decent working conditions. We simply cannot afford another three years of this shambolic and destructive government. Even a “do nothing” hung parliament would be preferable to that.

  24. From Ghost

    #Ipsos Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 51 (0) ALP 49 (0) #ausvotes

    Is this the latest Ipsos or the last one? Not sure…

  25. And if you think that the public servants should cop it for doing their jobs, all you are doing is letting Dutton and Turnbull off the hook.

    Any large scale crimes and atrocities require the complicity and cooperation of hundreds or thousands of people. Make no mistake: Australia’s methods of dealing with asylum seekers – such as tardy and inadequate medical care, leaving people vulnerable to rape and assault, inflicting mental illnesses – are wrong by any civilized standard and also most likely involve breaches of Australian domestic law. There needs to be a thorough Royal Commission with a brief that does not spare middle managers and junior people who invoke the Nuremberg defence (‘just following orders’). If you read my comments closely (or even at all) you would see that I said the heaviest responsibility rests with the most senior people. My point is that it is wrong to give middle and junior people blanket immunity from disciplinary action and/or legal penalties. There are middle-level and junior people who go further than they need to in inflicting misery on people, or who don’t take reasonable steps to slow down or subvert or question illegal practices.

    The party you support lets people like Dutton and Turnbull off the hook all the time. I must have missed the Royal Commissions into children overboard, Australian Wheat Board, involving Australia in the Iraq war.

  27. While it is possible to turn off the automatic cloud backup for modern devices, most people don’t bother.

  29. guytaur, TPOF:

    I thought you had to have a cloud account to store stuff ‘there’. I certainly don’t have one for my work iPhone, and nor do I have one for my personal android phone.

    I could be wrong however.

  30. Pedant

    Backup or not we know the photos were sent to the NBN Co offices read the reports.

    No knowing how many copies made at NBN Co and possibly sent on to other parties like the PMO.

  31. Talk later its Swans Hawthorn match time.

    Sorry Victoria hope the Hawks lose despite my sympathy for Roughy

  34. Labor has complained to the Australian federal police that an NBN staff member disseminated photos taken during Thursday night’s police raid on the former communication minister Stephen Conroy’s office which could have included the party’s broadband policy.

    WTF is a member of the public doing accompanying the AFP on a raid/ investigation, one with a special interest in the outcome.

  37. Smart phones would normally only send stuff to a cloud if they’ve been configured to do so: on my understanding it isn’t automatic.

    …………………………………………………………………

    Yep correct. The phone needs to be surrendered to see if it has been so configured.

    Pretty good chance it was – thats why a NBN person was included in the raid to start with.

    But metadata would also be available to indicate if pics were sent to the cloud.

    But take a step back – this is all about trying to stop bad, embarrassing information on the government ‘performance’ regarding the NBN being made public – during an election campaign.

    The AFP raid just cannot be defended.

  38. Fess, android uses your gmail account, which you need to download apps. I’m sure the “deputised” NBNCO dude would have made sure the photos were being sent to the cloud. I’m sure the AFP will be using metadata to track any that have been sent over the Internet 😉

  39. “Sounds like a camera phone, in which case you could obliterate the device, but the photos would already be in cyberspace.” well any IPhone/Android/IPad / tablet etc. etc. and nbn co have “agreed” to delete the images FFS. How shall I delete them dear Liza dear Liza? Like they can grantee that. Not as if they are an ICT company or something. How ironic is it then this is an investigation about leaking of confidential material?

  40. Confessions, the “standard” set-up process for iPhones pretty much takes you through setting up a free account. Lord knows what the device was, or where the copies have ended up, but the questions should be very seriously probed.

  41. The ‘cloud’ stuff has always been something to make sure you block. A trusty back up drive is the go.

    On things other I promised a child roast Lamb tomorrow. Proper gravy is easy.

    A few potatoes and some carrots and beans are also available.

    Turnips and parsnips have gone missing.

    Not ‘trendy’, I guess.

  43. victoria:

    Thanks for that Oakes report. He doesn’t sound especially approving of the conduct of the AFP and NBNCo.

  45. Question

    [Too tedious posting from a tablet.]

    Copy and paste is a practical impossibility, so they are very limited things.

  47. This is certainly true of the WA Police members tasked with security I spoke to when we had the Prince and Duchess visit here last year. Those police officers thought the AFP were a joke and not up to the business of actual police work.

    When I was at ANU Canberra in the 70’s the (then called) “Commonwealth Police” weren’t in charge of much more than traffic tickets and “drunk & disorderly” summary offences. They were a standing joke.

    I can remember Mungo McCallum standing up on a table at the Old Union (yes, I’m that old) with a jug of cider in hand, lampooning them to sheers from the assembled unwashed.

    The Commonwealth Police Highway Patrol used to wear jodphurs at the time, giving rise to ribald recitations of how their “manhood” stood out for all to see, if only in tight pants, far too tight.

    Now, since Howard, they have elevated themselves to the notional equivalent of the FBI.

    What a pathetic joke they are.

    Parked outside Malcolm Turnbull’s Point Piper “harbourside mansion” you can see them preening themselves in their bright red patrol vehicles, with iridescent checkerboard decals, as if they meant something serious.

    God help us if anyone tried something serious against the State. Their response would be to write emails to each other and seek to sheet blame home to someone outside the Organization.

    Once a joke, always a joke, the AFP.

  48. Fess

    Oakes would know more than most that this raid was a purely political piece of theatre. And big question is why would the AFP allow NBN rep in attendance to take photos and send them to other people during the raid?! Why wasnt protocol followed?

  49. Question, RodH:

    Thanks. I have no idea re this stuff. My android has a gmail app on it, but my work iPhone does not have cloud. I know this because my PA once tried to download something onto it and she asked for my cloud sign in. I told her I didn’t have one and she replied that I therefore couldn’t have that app.

  50. Thing is, you can sync to the cloud, then look at them on a computer, then copy to a thumb drive. Because the thumb drive isn’t on the internet, no metadata.

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