ReachTEL: 50-50; Ipsos: 51-49 to Coalition

Two new national polls do nothing to dispel perceptions of a tight race, and they’re accompanied by another result showing Labor with its nose in front in the key outer Sydney seat of Macarthur.

Two new national polls this evening, plus a local one from the electorate of Macarthur:

• The latest Ipsos result for the Fairfax papers, which we can now expect on Friday night rather than Sunday at least for the period of the campaign, has the Coalition two-party lead unchanged at 51-49, with the Coalition primary vote down a point to 43%, Labor up one to 34%, and the Greens steady on 14%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 51-29 to 47-30, and his approval rating is steady on 48%, with disapproval down two to 38%. Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 40% and down three to 46%. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1497, compared with the usual Ipsos survey period of Thursday to Saturday.

• Seven News brings us a new poll from ReachTEL which is the third such poll in a row to have the result at 50-50, the most recent of which was conducted a few days after the budget on May 5. However, the primary votes look better for Labor this time, with the Coalition on 42.6%, down from 44.2%; Labor on 36.6%, up from 35.1%; the Greens on 9.9%, up from 9.5; and the Nick Xenophon Team on 2.7%, down from 4.2%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead over Bill Shorten has narrowed from 57.7-42.3 to 55.6-44.4; Turnbull’s very good plus good rating is up from 28.1% to 28.6%, and his poor plus very poor rating is up from 34.5% to 35.1%; the corresponding results for Bill Shorten record a solid improvement, with very good plus good up from 24.6% to 27.9%, and poor plus very poor down from 44.0% to 38.4%. The automated phone poll was recorded last night from a sample of 2407 – full results can be found here.

• There is also a separate ReachTEL poll for the Macarthur electorate, which the Russell Matheson holds for the Liberals on a post-redistribution margin of 3.3%, down from 11.4% at the 2013 election. Here ReachTEL credits Labor with a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred. After distributing results from a secondary question prompting the 10.7%, the primary votes are Liberal 41.4%, Labor 41.1%, Greens 7.3% and Nick Xenophon Team 2.5%. The poll was conducted last night from a sample of 628.

UPDATE: Here’s what the BludgerTrack tables look like with the ReachTEL and Ipsos result added, including the Ipsos leadership ratings. This translates into a higher result for “others” at the expense of both major parties, with no change to the national two-party result (UPDATE: Turns out this was because I’d failed to distribute ReachTEL’s undecided results, so scratch that). The Coalition is down a seat in New South Wales and up one in Western Australia, although the remarkable swing result from the latter is only slightly modified.

bludgertrack-2016-05-21

UPDATE 2: Here’s another chart to brighten your weekend, this one tracking the state-level swings to or from the Coalition on Malcolm Turnbull’s watch. Broadly speaking, what emerges is a levelling off since March everywhere except Western Australia, where the momentum of the government’s early year slide has been maintained. The uptick to the Coalition in Queensland is a curiosity, and may simply reflect the dominance there at the moment of a single data point, namely the 1176-sample poll there from Galaxy last week (though it’s not nearly as dominant as last week’s 3019-sample state-level poll from ReachTEL is in Tasmania). You might also find evidence that the submarines contract was a steadier for the Liberals in South Australia if you’re looking at it, but the elephant in the room there is the 22.2% others vote, which crept up from 13.5% at the start of Turnbull’s tenure to 14.6% at the end of the year, and has since swelled to 22.2%. I’ll provide a more detailed display of state-level breakdowns soon, I promise.

2016-05-21-swing-by-state

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,780 comments on “ReachTEL: 50-50; Ipsos: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  2. evan parsons @ #1739 Sunday, May 22, 2016 at 11:43 pm

    Turnball mightn’t want another debate. Heck, even the one set up by Sky News to advantage him didn’t go so well.
    I wonder if Turnball will even appear on Q&A? I’m sure Shorten will, at some stage before July 2.

    As the Turn has nothing to say that is really even slightly relevant to the voting public, I imagine he will try to avoid more debates. He know he will lose.

  3. briefly @ #1743 Sunday, May 22, 2016 at 11:44 pm

    c@tmomma @ #1736 Sunday, May 22, 2016 at 11:41 pm
    C@t….the struggle is on for sure. But there is no comparison with 2004. The Turn does not have the touch that Howard had. And Bill is not certifiably unfit for any public office whatsoever, as was the lamentable Latham.

    They are good points, briefly, however the salient point is not who the protagonists are but who the common denominator is. Rupert Murdoch. He could make JC seem like Beezlebub! I guess if we see Col Allen brought out of the freezer and shipped back to Australia again, then we will know who Rupert wants to win.

  4. Nevermind, GhostWhoVotes just released them:

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 51s51 seconds ago
    #Newspoll Turnbull: Approve 38 (0) Disapprove 50 (+1) #ausvotes

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 28s28 seconds ago
    #Newspoll Shorten: Approve 37 (+4) Disapprove 49 (-3) #ausvotes

  7. c@tmomma @ #1736 Sunday, May 22, 2016 at 11:41 pm

    This is an arm wrestle, to be sure. The indications are good, but that’s all they are. I expect some bloated, mangy dead dogs to be thrown at Labor by the Murdoch mafia in the 6 weeks ahead, Dennis Atkin’s attempted slur on Shorten for having witnessed the papers on the sale of the Seddon house from Kathy and Jeff Jackson to David Feeney being but the beginning I predict.
    I still remember when Latham looked like winning in 2004 and the Murdoch mafia dredged up that woman who was his first wife for a ‘Tell All’ story that was full of vile bile, and his popularity started tanking from that point on. Not to mention ‘The Handshake’.
    —

    Labor dodged a bullet with Latham.

  8. briefly @ #1753 Sunday, May 22, 2016 at 11:54 pm

    evan parsons @ #1739 Sunday, May 22, 2016 at 11:43 pm

    Turnball mightn’t want another debate. Heck, even the one set up by Sky News to advantage him didn’t go so well.
    I wonder if Turnball will even appear on Q&A? I’m sure Shorten will, at some stage before July 2.

    As the Turn has nothing to say that is really even slightly relevant to the voting public, I imagine he will try to avoid more debates. He know he will lose.

    I’d think that Turnball would prefer to avoid any debate with Shorten. But he can’t avoid it entirely without opening a “he won’t debate me” meme. Best choice (for Turnball) would be to get it done early and allow the rhythmic fear campaign to occupy the focal end of the election.

  12. bemused,

    Labor dodged a bullet with Latham.

    Yes. My point was more about News Corps tactics wrt Labor leaders they don’t want to win.

  14. c@tmomma @ #1754 Sunday, May 22, 2016 at 11:55 pm

    briefly @ #1743 Sunday, May 22, 2016 at 11:44 pm

    c@tmomma @ #1736 Sunday, May 22, 2016 at 11:41 pm
    C@t….the struggle is on for sure. But there is no comparison with 2004. The Turn does not have the touch that Howard had. And Bill is not certifiably unfit for any public office whatsoever, as was the lamentable Latham.

    They are good points, briefly, however the salient point is not who the protagonists are but who the common denominator is. Rupert Murdoch. He could make JC seem like Beezlebub! I guess if we see Col Allen brought out of the freezer and shipped back to Australia again, then we will know who Rupert wants to win.

    Murdoch is a factor, no doubt. But he should consider…if he runs an aggressively anti-Labor line and loses then he may find his businesses sold from under him. A change to foreign ownership and market reach laws could see News Corp demolished. He could do a lot worse than to bend to a Labor win.

  17. GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 28m28 minutes ago
    #Newspoll Which party will win the election: L/NP 44 (-11) ALP 33 (+8) #ausvotes

    Perhaps the most interesting shift in newspoll.

  21. roger miller @ #1769 Monday, May 23, 2016 at 12:47 am

    How long before the backbench start thinking about saving the furniture?

    I would think they already are. Some will be asking themselves if it’s possible to requisition a Party meeting in the next ten 10 days with a view to sacking the Turn. The harder heads will know the die is cast. They have to try to campaign with no policies, no record, no platform, no leader and no vision. They even appear to have misplaced their slogan, at least in WA.

  28. Roger Miller
    Monday, May 23, 2016 at 1:04 am
    They could bring back “Change with Continuity”

    With a slight tweak
    “Chaos with Continuity”
    OR
    Chaos Continues

  29. work to rule @ #1768 Monday, May 23, 2016 at 12:44 am

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 28m28 minutes ago
    #Newspoll Which party will win the election: L/NP 44 (-11) ALP 33 (+8) #ausvotes
    Perhaps the most interesting shift in newspoll.

    Agreed – great pick-up. That is a big shift well beyond the MOE. Interesting also that the 51/49 lead has held despite the changed expectations. My guess is that most of that swing in this past fortnight will be from the more politically aware as most people are yet to tune in. Not surprising that the loss of confidence in a Libs win has occurred at a higher rate than the gain of confidence in a Labor win.

    Hardcore Labs can see that it is actually very close even if they may be just behind now. Hardcore Libs can see wheels flying off and are increasingly frustrated and disillusioned with Turnbull. Their *bed-wetter* marginal MPs will be very close to panicking if they haven’t already. The trend still seems to be with Labor if only in solidifying its position for now.

  30. The hapless Leigh Sales will be lost for words….

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 51s51 seconds ago
    #Newspoll Turnbull: Approve 38 (0) Disapprove 50 (+1) #ausvotes

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 28s28 seconds ago
    #Newspoll Shorten: Approve 37 (+4) Disapprove 49 (-3) #ausvotes

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