Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

No change from Essential Research this week, which also records Malcolm Turnbull dipping into net negative territory on personal approval for the first time.

The latest result for Essential Research is largely unchanged on last week, with the Coalition steady on 42% of the primary vote, Labor steady on 38% and the Greens down one to 9%. One change is that the pollster has dumped Palmer United from its survey and replaced it with the Nick Xenophon Team, which opens it account on 3%. The poll also features Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which find Malcolm Turnbull up one on approval to 40% and up three on disapproval to 42%, Bill Shorten up four on approval to 34% and down one on disapproval to 43%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing from 44-22 to 43-28. There is also a suite of questions on social class, something 81% agreed existed in Australia, with only 8% saying otherwise. Only 2% of respondents identified as upper class, yet 53% thought the Liberal Party mainly served that party’s interests. Forty-eight per cent of respondents identified as middle class, which 15% thought mainly served by Liberal and 17% by Labor, while 34% identified as working class, which 39% thought mainly represented by Labor and 4% by Liberal. The poll also found 48% approval of the budget’s internships scheme for the young unemployed, and 52% rating the election campaign too long versus 5% for too short and 32% for about right.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,374 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. mark

    Di Natale is suggesting the Greens will undermine the FWC by introducing legislation to over-rule the FWC penalty rate decision. This will NEVER be supported by a Labor Govt. All bets are off when it comes to a Coalition Govt, but..

    In fairness, even the Libs haven’t done it even with Abbott as PM. It sounds like a reckless way to “govern” from the Greens, but they can obviously say they will do it knowing it won’t ever come to fruition.

  2. Intersting chat with relative who is working on Nauru in an official capacity. A few take aways:
    – the local government is corrupt as
    – the refugees who see the glass half full are making great business, with restaurants of the Sri Lankan, Iranian, Somali variety set up and packed each night with wealthy Nauru and expats. May be the answer to our chef shortage?

  3. This (thanks Lizzie)

    http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/csiro-buries-australias-future-30556

    and this

    trog sorrenson @ #134 Tuesday, May 17, 2016 at 5:06 pm

    First job for Shorten once elected – fire Larry Marshall, and reinstate climate program at the CSIRO
    http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/csiro-buries-australias-future-30556

    And remove the board who appointed him.

    This is the most blatant and serious corruption of science I have seen in Oz ever, and lead candidate for the most reckless and destructive act of any Oz government. It is almost unbelievable it has happened. These people are completely insane.

    Unceremonious sacking of the lot, and immediate cessation of the structural and budgetary changes in CSIRO pending major review, should be the very first act of a Shorten government, within minutes of being commissioned by the GG.

  4. Why haven’t the Greens been able to close off-shore detention centers? Because they can’t form a government.

  5. Labor frontbencher David Feeney owns an undeclared $2.31 million property, potentially placing him in “serious contempt” of the Parliament.

    And the ALP power broker says he “doesn’t know” if the house is negatively geared…

    ————————————

    Idiot who needs his arse kicked over this. But doubt it will make any difference to votes, if Bill handles well.

  6. Union leader after union leader have today rubbished the approach by the greens re penalty rates.

    What one government gives another can take away.

    Just think of the safe pay rates for truckies being legislated out of existence as well as the tribunal that determined the rates.

    Stupid political rubbish by the greens.

    Cheers.

  7. mh
    Why haven’t the Greens been able to solve (insert any issue you care to nominate). Because they can’t form a government.

  8. Just me,

    Newscorpe have honed in on the kill.

    Feeney has confirmed to them the house is negatively geared.

    Cheers.

  9. Feeney is even worse than it looks at first glimpse. He’s been straight out lying.
    He said this earlier in the week.
    “My wife and I bought a house in Northcote in 2013 after I won Batman for Labor but it is being renovated. So we’re not living in it at the moment but that will be our family home”.
    In fact it’s not being renovated at all, he’s got tenants in it paying rent.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-david-feeney-didnt-declare-23m-house-and-doesnt-know-if-its-negatively-geared-20160517-gowys9.html#ixzz48uEOoGfp

  10. I reckon that, today, the cat-strangler:
    1. Won One point for talking about boats in Darwin;
    2. Lost one point for looking like an Eastern Suburbs, canape-munching dick when he did it; and
    3. Lost another point for showing he’s a total phony. One minute he promises a new style of politics, the next he’s acting like Steven Seagal.

  11. BW
    I’ve shut up about this debate but nicholas’ comment “43% of Labor voters are irresponsible and xenophobic” was outrageous.

  12. There is no separation of powers issue when parliament legislates rules for employment.
    If parliament was legislating the outcome of an individual’s complaint against their employer, that would be a problem. But we are talking about the making of general rules to promote the general welfare. Legislative function, not judicial.

  13. Davidwh,

    Feeney would be worse if it was labor arguing against the curbing of negative gearing.

    Saying that this will get played up. But I thinkthe liberals would want to be careful or else a bit of MAD may ensure.

    Cheers.

  14. next minute we’ll hear Feeny also owns companies registred in the Caymans, was named in the Panama leak, gave 10 million taxpayer bucks to some sort of failed rainmaking scheme and payed an undisclosed sum in an out of court settlement to kill off a big pending court case

    and that will be the end of him

  15. next minute we’ll hear Feeny also owns companies registred in the Caymans, was named in the Panama leak, gave 10 million taxpayer bucks to some sort of failed rainmaking scheme and payed an undisclosed sum in an out of court settlement to kill off a big pending court case

    Oh come on, no one with that sort of record would even have a political career to kill off…

    Oh…

  16. I think Malcolm should take the gloves off and say what he really means: Vote Labor and you will be raped in your beds.

  17. Feeney clearly is a liability.

    he always was – in a seat like Batman he is not a very good fit. He was tainted by the whole Rudd affair and mud sticks. This just a bit more.
    Trouble is I seriously want to know how someone of his age and apparently having worked for a union gets to own a 2.3 million house as a SECOND house. Now if he was a business guy then it is to be expected – but your average unionist/politician? I say this because I reckon that at least until divorce I was doing pretty weel on the real estate game, with good homes etc. If no divorce then I might have been in the second house negativle gearing game, but even with 2 good incomes $2.3 millian would have been way, way beyond my touch. I know that the pollies get a good income, but it is still not 2 houses at $2.3 million good.

    Other federal politicians I know live in ordinary suburban homes.

  18. On penalty rates, if you don’t understand the Lib Govt has been out to end them for everyone (they backpedalled in the confused pathetic manner they have backpedalled on so much when it became apparent there wasn’t wide spread support for screwing over nurses and other shift workers) and that Labor has a proud 100 year + history of not merely protecting workers rights but extending them.

    The greens have a proud history of trying to make political capital out of irrelevance, even at the cost of the environment and refugees when they sensed a few votes in it.

    No one with two braincells and a memory length longer than a gold fish is going to have doubts. It is the shallowest and emptiest of political spin and sideshow to even suggest otherwise.

  19. nicholas @ #247 Tuesday, May 17, 2016 at 7:52 pm

    It was thoughtful – even if unintended – of the Split to campaign for Bill Shorten on an IR theme – to offer themselves as political sacrifices on his home-ground.

    The general take-out will be that Shorten knows what he’s doing while the Split obviously don’t have any idea at all. In a single day, the Split has undone all the damage wrought by the TURC. Shorten is now verifiably “safe hands” when it comes to IR. The Split should be congratulated.

  20. I’ve shut up about this debate but nicholas’ comment “43% of Labor voters are irresponsible and xenophobic” was outrageous.

    Nicholas became a scroll by for me ages ago when it became apparent his sole motivation was to post screeds and screeds of unreconstructed, inflammatory rants.

    Life is too short to engage with crap.

  21. daretotread – I don’t like the insinuation you are making regarding Feeney’s ability to buy more than one house and whatever price. In any case his wife is the principal of Maurice Blackburn.

  22. [In fairness, even the Libs haven’t done it even with Abbott as PM. ]
    In fairness the Abbott / Turnbull Government has not passed one of three budgets and has done very very little of anything. A senate full of right wing nutjobs but they lacked the skills to get pet rightwing nutjob stuff through.

  23. From the SMH Facebook page:

    The Sydney Morning Herald
    21 mins ·
    Men using the gay smartphone app Grindr are set to be inundated with Greens political advertising as the party pursues all avenues to win lower house seats.

    Wow. How major-party-like of the party that presents itself as nothing like the major parties.

  24. “43% of Labor voters are irresponsible and xenophobic”

    43% of Labor voters is still around four times 100% of Greens voters.

    You have a lot more compromising and eating of self-righteous pie to do before you get anywhere near commanding 43% of the Labor vote.

    Feel free to show us how it is done without sullying one’s purity. No other political party has ever managed it.

    Ain’t democracy grand.

  25. In fairness the Abbott / Turnbull Government has not passed one of three budgets

    Really? That’s a pretty serious fail for a first term govt, isn’t it?

  26. confessions @ #289 Tuesday, May 17, 2016 at 8:38 pm

    From the SMH Facebook page:

    The Sydney Morning Herald
    21 mins ·
    Men using the gay smartphone app Grindr are set to be inundated with Greens political advertising as the party pursues all avenues to win lower house seats.

    Wow. How major-party-like of the party that presents itself as nothing like the major parties.

    I don’t think campaigning is a “major party” thing – it’s a party thing in general

  27. For what it’s worth.

    It was a stupid oversight by Feeney not to declare the house but he would not be the first politician, labor, liberal, national or independent to do so. Tony Abbott springs to mind.

    He has now updated the registrar, confirmed the house was negatively geared and will cop a bit of flak. At least he has not tried to cover up once approached. It is always the cover up that hurts more than the crime.

    I may be wrong and I am more than happy to be corrected but I assume he would not be the only person in his electorate to have a investment property or two.

    At least labor is attempting to curb negative gearing. It would be a bit worse if labor had a policy to fight against changes to the practice.

    Anyway, if is what it is. A few more bells and whistles to add to the sideshow.

    Cheers.

    Labor will just have to wear it.

    Across the political divide I am sure this has happened.

  28. Jimmy

    Fair enough
    If his wife is a partner in a big law firm there will be lotsa cash around. So that explains the house. probably also gives credence to his not knowing of it.

    Still not a good look and it will take the sting out of the harbourside mansion stuff on Mal .

  29. Diog

    As usual you got things wrong. Feeney has applied for permission to renovate his house, it is being assessed by council. So what is he supposed to do. Remember the original story was about living in the electorate.

  30. Nicholas @ #238 Tuesday, May 17, 2016 at 7:46 pm

    43% of Labor voters are irresponsible and xenophobic.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/may/17/poll-shows-almost-half-of-labor-voters-oppose-bringing-manus-island-detainees-to-australia

    I’ve found the poll this article is referring too, and it also says that 15% of Greens voters oppose bringing Manus Island refugees to Australia (while 73% support); and 53% of Other voters oppose bringing Manus Island refugees to Australia (while 28% support).

    http://www.essentialvision.com.au/manus-island-detention-centre

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