The latest result for Essential Research is largely unchanged on last week, with the Coalition steady on 42% of the primary vote, Labor steady on 38% and the Greens down one to 9%. One change is that the pollster has dumped Palmer United from its survey and replaced it with the Nick Xenophon Team, which opens it account on 3%. The poll also features Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which find Malcolm Turnbull up one on approval to 40% and up three on disapproval to 42%, Bill Shorten up four on approval to 34% and down one on disapproval to 43%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing from 44-22 to 43-28. There is also a suite of questions on social class, something 81% agreed existed in Australia, with only 8% saying otherwise. Only 2% of respondents identified as upper class, yet 53% thought the Liberal Party mainly served that party’s interests. Forty-eight per cent of respondents identified as middle class, which 15% thought mainly served by Liberal and 17% by Labor, while 34% identified as working class, which 39% thought mainly represented by Labor and 4% by Liberal. The poll also found 48% approval of the budget’s internships scheme for the young unemployed, and 52% rating the election campaign too long versus 5% for too short and 32% for about right.
Shorten has not used the word ‘guarantee’ around penalty rates so whoever is saying that is either ‘being lied to or is lying’.
He has stated unequivocally that he backs in the independent umpire and if they win govt they will lobby from the strong position of govt to keep penalty rates.
As I have read elsewhere, the FWC would not see penalty rates a problem right now anyway because of stagnant wage growth.
This has been pot-stirring from the Greens (who did not put in a submission to FWC so militant was their support of penalty rates … not).
I tend to agree with Ben Eltham that industrial relations is a good topic for ALP in the campaign.
Dave Oliver also endorses the umpire rather than govt’s intervening with their own policies
I think The Greens are trying to foment outrage over the value of the property, as much as anything else.
But that would mean suggesting The Greens Party are just another political party, capable of (and happy to engage in) mean, tricky and nasty smear campaigns.
Perish the thought! 😉
Diogenes..
No, a Govt cannot dictate a FWC outcome ..but a submission from Govt carries a great deal of weight. Di Natale is suggesting the Greens will undermine the FWC by introducing legislation to over-rule the FWC penalty rate decision. This will NEVER be supported by a Labor Govt. All bets are off when it comes to a Coalition Govt, but..
One thing IS certain, however ..the ALP will always work to maintain and improve the pay & conditions of Aussie workers ..it’s why they exist ..and it’s why Di Natale’s reckless promise is an attack to the very heart of the ALP..
ausdavo – appears you have factored in the redistributions – I notice Paterson is missing from the nsw gains despite now notionally alp sans any swing to the alp
One thing to consider is whether or not the FWC has the power to get rid of penalty rates? It could recommend it fer sure. BUT, penalty rates are an award / agreement matter. Changing those is a separate process altogether i think.
According to the Sportsbet markets the ALP is favoured to gain Hasluck (Current Lib margin 6%) and Burt (6.1%)
The seat of Swan (7.3%) is 50/50 with both major parties $1.87 to win the seat but the seat of Cowan (4.5%) the most marginal Lib held v ALP seat in WA is expected according to the odds to be held by the Libs.
If the markets are accurate this would show that there is no uniform swing in WA. It will depend seat-by-seat the disdain that the WA public have for Barnett how much of a hit that the government will receive.
Legal aid in crisis.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-16/law-council-of-australia-launches-legal-aid-matters-campaign/7417094
26 March 2015: http://greensmps.org.au/content/media-releases/liberal-labor-knock-back-urgent-bid-save-community-legal-services
Greens party policy: http://greens.org.au/access-to-justice
“How can you not know if your $2.3 house is negatively geared?”
Easily, you don’t know if income is less than expenses. Or your tax accountant didn’t say, or Liberty looks after finances…
I could go on.
Boerwar,
I enjoyed your rant from the previous page, though perhaps “enjoyed” is not the word to describe my reaction as I fear, very much, that you are right.
The world may endure, but the image of those Malcolm Fraser like stone statues, emblematic of a civilisation that ate itself, seem all too real.
Where is ScoMo? I don’t think I’ve seen him for days.
Bluey Bulletin No 57 Day 57 of 103
Blue went for a bit of a tour of the Reef today. Bluey reckons that humans have ADHD and that most would hardly notice from one day to the next that the Reef is going, going… Anyway the point is that Bluey took a rest from studying the whole political day intently.
COWSHIT AND BULLDUST
Bluey notes that the lawyers have waded into Murray Goulburn’s milk vats.
One of Bluey’s mates, a Murray Goulburn supplier, milks just shy of one thousand cows. They had a delegation from MG visit them and the message was absolutely crushing. They have been overpaid for the first ten months. To help pay this back, they will get jack shit per liter of milk for the next two months. MG is prepared to help them with a loan to tide them over, at 6% interest. Bluey’s mates had spent up on equipment, bought somewhere between $100,000 and $200,000 of water allocations, and purchased some adjoining paddocks. They are going to struggle to stay afloat. Bluey does not know whether any of this is true. But is sort of sounds true. Sudden spiv death syndrome during the discussions (which were really a unilateral ultimatum on the basis of we fucked up, you pay) was apparently narrowly avoided. Bluey notes that Joyce, normally so voluble, has been strangely silent on this one. Nor have the great China Export Trade Agreement been sticking their heads over the parapet to discuss the collapse in international milk commodities prices.
HOIST ON THE PENALTY PETARD
The Coalition have been clever here: they have stacked the commissioners and are quite happy for everyone to talk about the ‘independent’ umpire. It is not. Shorten is all over the place on this. The Greens are doing the usual wedge cum hypocrisy on this. Bandt, squeezed, has finally had to admit that the Greens could not be bothered to provide a submission on penalties. Bluey notes that the Greens are slackarses, except when it comes to trying to help Turnbull’s Tories.
BACKPACKER BACKFLIP
Bluey watched Turnbull and Morrison tie themselves into knots on this one. Shorten is right. The wheels are falling off their Budget – but more because of the iron ore price than anything else. Bluey did have a chortle when he heard the Joyce will be leading the ‘review’ of the backpacker tax.
BORDER PROTECTION, TERRISM FUD, YADA YADA
Turnbull and the Greens are combining to do some real damage to Labor on this one. Bluey notes that the Liberals are using the advantage of incumbency to ensure a steady drip of terrorism horror stories. Bluey rather thought that the MSM mass bullshiting around the arrest of a single 18 year old by the combined might of thousands of police persons, spooks, and an army with a uniform strength of over 35,000, was rather over the top. Still, Bluey reckons it is working. Shorten is badly on the defensive on this one.
IDIOT CANDIDATES
Feeney took today’s honours. Bluey reckons that anyone who can ‘forget’ a $2.3 million house deserves an early spot in PaTHways for a bit of the old re-education.
Natasha Grigg took yesterday’s honours. Bluey reckons that she is gone anyway.
POLLING
2PP stalled. Turnbull going backwards. Shorten advancing.
Verdict for the Day: Liberals
Cumulative Tally: Liberal 35.5 Labor 21.5
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/super-switch-likely-to-shift-votes-morgan/news-story/14389c46c929adf6d2b5a53f8e367633
Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch. Seems that its how the $500k lifetime cap works that is causing the most angst. ALP policy is much simpler as far as i can tell.
ML
Thank you. Sometimes it is worth taking the long view. *Sips another red*.
“Mr Morrison wrote to Mr Bowen on Tuesday offering one debate at the National Press Club, but not ruling out further debates. Mr Bowen had asked for a debate at the Press Club, one on the ABC’s Q&A and a “town hall” debate on Sky News.”
Imacca
IMO the Super stuff is almost certainly going to be an unexpected vote winner for Labor. How many and in which seats, I have no idea.
Boerwar
In regards to MG and the milk pricing it has been getting front page and many column inches in the local papers where I live in Bass Coast (Wonthaggi).
There is palpable anger with MG with many locals calling for the sacking of the board and a full enquiry. They might as well wheel in the guillotine now.
Meanwhile Burra Foods a MG competitor are receiving “hundreds” of calls from dairy farmers about wanting to switch.
The fact that the Ag Minister has gone missing in action is not good either. I really feel for these dairy folk.
I don’t know much about Feeney and his house but it is currently empty for renovations. How this affects anything I wouldn’t know.
Thanks Bluey, I am starting to look for your daily summary
Oh, Bluey’s Bulletin has been OBE. See 7.30. Dairy farmers want taxpayer money. Joyce is going to be interviewed.
ABC reports that skiers might “hit the slopes in shorts” this winter due to global warming. These sort of flippant remarks just undermine the seriousness of what’s happening, the ABC should do better.
Zoomster,
It’s interesting that Morrison is nowhere to be seen, yet they wheel out the Cormantator all the time when there are economic questions on the agenda.
I reckon he’s been side lined. They’ve realised he’s a dud as Treasurer.
Agree. May not actually shift many votes on the day, but every one counts.
LoL!
Yup, press club no prob.
Q&A and unvetted town hall??? Oh but there will be laughter if ScoMo allows either of those!! Shorten is doing well, but i think Bowen has found his inner bastard quite likes that role, and is ready to rip ScoMo a new one given the chance. And, there is much opportunity in any debate for ScoMo to revert to Mr Shouty which is just not a good look.
If penalty rates were to be legislated, the legislation would most likely empower the relevant Minister to declare the actual rates (to allow for changing circumstances over time). This ministerial determination would be subject to disallowance by the Senate but would apply for some time until considered by the Senate. So a future LNP Minister would be able, under the legislation, to declare a Sunday penalty loading of 0% and cause tremendous misery for workers on penalty rates.
The whole idea of legislating penalty rates is fraught with the peril of “unintended consequences”.
Boerwar
About your comments about Superannuation changes unless there are also changes made to Negative Gearing for rental properties all the super changes do is remove one tax rort and expose another one.
Turnbull and his mates will pour their money into property and prices for residential property will sky rocket. Whilst I believe changes to reducing or removing negative gearing for all capital items (property, shares etc) should be income based and not asset based at least the ALP have a starting point which the community seem to resonate with.
jenauthor @ #201 Tuesday, May 17, 2016 at 7:09 pm
The Split have very low credibility with working people on IR matters….about as much as Peter Reith. They will look very sceptically at anything that might interfere with the IR settings. Maybe, without intending to, the Split has done Shorten a favour by drawing attention to his standing as an Union leader and workers’ advocate.
As ever, the Split have over-played their cards.
I understand that Corman and Wong were the respective main talking heads put up by both campaign teams.
Scomo has been doing local type events even beyond his electorate. Bluey reckons that he is not all that popular so they are mainly tucking him out of sight.
So they are not totally IDIOT.
Wouldn’t lack of snow make them hikers??
Jenauthor,
It does not really matter. It is just Massola being a grub. Pollies regularly gave yo update after missing something. Abbott had to do it as well as a swath of pollies from both sides.
Feeney will update and apologise in a statement.
Of course it will be played up tomorrow and , as the MSM will report , it will ” soak up the oxygen from Labors campaign ” for another day.
Whether that is the reality I doubt. People will have who Feeney is and will not really care. The Libs would want to be careful if theyntrynto get any traction from it.
Massola and Fairfax just being grubs.
Cheers.
Excuse my spelling and grammar once again.
I am slowly starting to not like my iPad.
Cheers.
Well if Feeney’s house isn’t an investment property then negative gearing is a non-issue. However one does not accidently forget a $2.3 million assets unless you are mega-rich or mega-stupid.
LOL really? In the car earlier today I heard Di Natale admit he didn’t know if his own party had provided a submission to the inquiry or whatever it was, and if Bluey is right it turns out their IR spokesperson cared so much about the issue, he couldn’t be arsed putting in a submission.
Hitting the snow in shorts with global warming would result in arse gravel rash.
I think Bluey has the numbers reversed for today?
[Cumulative Tally: Liberal 35.5 Labor 21.5]
DWH
Or mega arrogant.
Citizen
I have conferred with Bluey. He is grateful for your diligence and, as a reward, will give you a free one-to-one electric blue experience in his rock hole but not right now. You will have to wait until Shorten wins government.
True BW 🙂
I haven’t caught up with this either, but if that’s what he said, then seriously, what an idiot. Just as Labor is landing blows on Turnbull (also thanks to Credlin) for being out of touch with the rest of us.
43% of Labor voters are irresponsible and xenophobic.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/may/17/poll-shows-almost-half-of-labor-voters-oppose-bringing-manus-island-detainees-to-australia
Ak
You would think so. But for you to skive off negative gearing house prices and unit prices have to go up. The latter are looking very dicky right now and growth in the former are more or less totally dependent on Chinese capital outflows.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/nab-shrugs-off-negative-gearing-debate-20160517-gox6m5.html
Sorry Mal and Scooty. Even the nasty blood sucking banks don believe you on Negative Gearing.
What’s the bigger issue? Feeney not declaring a house he owns or my local MP Stuart Robert not declaring his China trip, gifts from that trip and handing $60,000 of LNP cash to 2 of his staffers to help fund their campaigns for Gold Coast Council seats?
How ridiculous to say that the Australian Government should lobby an unelected administrative body for the restoration of penalty rates instead doing this democratically through parliament.
Labor need every candidate for every seat to be as high a quality as possible – House and Senate – Feeney has been around the traps and failed to make any sort of (good) name for himself. He has now turned himself into a liability through laziness, incompetence, greediness, whatever you want to call it.
Factions be damned. Pick better candidates.
Yeah, right. Like FWA always does what the government wants.
I smell brimstone… ah, a Greens Capitalist Running Dog.
FWA is being stacked with business types. It will do what this Government wants on auto pilot. No instructions required. So much for the notion of ‘fair umpire’.
The ALP is promising to govern via strongly worded submissions. Who died and made the FWC our overlords?
N
Bwahahaahha… so, when exactly, are the Greens going to legislate anything at all?
On this basis, the government should not bother to make submissions to the High Court and just legislate for whatever it wants.
Well I’m pretty sure she is still alive but Gillard made FWA God.