The latest result for Essential Research is largely unchanged on last week, with the Coalition steady on 42% of the primary vote, Labor steady on 38% and the Greens down one to 9%. One change is that the pollster has dumped Palmer United from its survey and replaced it with the Nick Xenophon Team, which opens it account on 3%. The poll also features Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which find Malcolm Turnbull up one on approval to 40% and up three on disapproval to 42%, Bill Shorten up four on approval to 34% and down one on disapproval to 43%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing from 44-22 to 43-28. There is also a suite of questions on social class, something 81% agreed existed in Australia, with only 8% saying otherwise. Only 2% of respondents identified as upper class, yet 53% thought the Liberal Party mainly served that party’s interests. Forty-eight per cent of respondents identified as middle class, which 15% thought mainly served by Liberal and 17% by Labor, while 34% identified as working class, which 39% thought mainly represented by Labor and 4% by Liberal. The poll also found 48% approval of the budget’s internships scheme for the young unemployed, and 52% rating the election campaign too long versus 5% for too short and 32% for about right.
Nice TV pics of Shorten with a very affectionate lady in Adelaide today, on Channel 10 news.
That sort of imagery doesn’t do him harm, in comparison to the stage managed nature of Turnball’s stunts.
Re Palmer and PUP
I would have thought he would be ineligible to stand for Parliament given his appalling business practices and general ethics. The lad is a clown.
http://insidestory.org.au/a-new-mother-tongue
A uniform 6% swing to Labor in WA nets them Cowan, Burt, Swan and Hasluck
I had the misfortune to be forced to listen to ABC radio this afternoon, and I see the ABC is back on it’s TERRORISTS! binge. Apparently a bunch of idiots driving a boat from Melbourne to Queensland was not deemed to be sufficiently scary, so our illustrious Political Police have reverted to arresting teenagers “on suspicion” again. No doubt this arrest, like most of the previous ones, will go nowhere.
I hate to say “I told youz so”, but …
Malcolm at the wheel.
https://twitter.com/otiose94/status/732472181674778624
Watching The Drum at the moment, a news program for “young people”
Amanda Vanstone is subtitled as Howard government minister
Do “young people” know Howard was Liberal?
Surely a better subtitle is “Amanda Vanstone, Liberal government Minister 2001 to 2007”
From a KPMG document – The global economy – is this as good as it gets?
Not everyone is pessimistic
“In contrast, some economists – who we shall call ‘techno-optimists’ – are confident that it is only a matter of time before full economic recovery occurs.”
“However, even the techno-optimists foresee a very different society and world of work. They predict a sharp social stratification in the developed world, where the inheritors of wealth, the owners of capital and the highly educated do well. In this scenario, the middle class is hollowed out and the working poor struggling to keep precarious jobs endure falling living standards.”
Turnbull wants to give large American companies a tax cut so that tax revenue is transferred to the US. Cranky wants to go one step further and transfer all the profits.
GG at #85
I believe that Medicare will be the issue that decides this election.
I couldn’t agree more and if labor don’t push this for all its worth with the mother of all scare campaigns they don’t IMO deserve to win.
Just don’t leave it to the AMA.
NJB – they can’t attack too soon or the Libs will simply backflip and say “all is well”.
I think the push will come late in the campaign when the most people are watching
Jenauthor @161
Well I hope late in the campaign is not too late,
“The Greens continue their campaign against the ALP ..and some say on here that ALP supporters shouldn’t fight back!!
..tell them they’re dreaming!!”
Greens on here insist that Labor should be attacking the Liberals then their party does this. LOL
Look I think if Labor runs a good campaign, and makes this about Labor vs Liberal then the Greens will become increasingly less relevant and forgotten by the voters.
slav g @ #93 Tuesday, May 17, 2016 at 4:21 pm
You’re quite right..what was i thinking !!!
So is Shorten guaranteeing penalty rates will stay or is he leaving it up to the FWC?
Shorten is leaving it up to the FWC, but saying that once in Government (in the event Labor wins), he will put in a strong submission, as the Government, which will have more weight than the submission put in by the ALP as a political party.
David Feeney – what an absolute idiot!!!
The Greens getting stuck into the ALP plays into labors hands. It makes liberal leaning voters feel safer voting ALP. 80% of the general public think the greens are loons.
It’s good to know that being shot and killed by a non-jihadist is so much better than being shot and killed by a jihadist.
What is feeney supposed to have done? He didn’t declare a house he has talked about and made no attempt to conceal, a mistake.
The rest is arsehola crap.
ruawake
“The Greens getting stuck into the ALP plays into labors hands. It makes liberal leaning voters feel safer voting ALP. 80% of the general public think the greens are loons.”
My thinking exactly.
Diogenes
He’s leaving it up to the FWC, but he’ll send them a letter. Protecting penalty rates? I think not!
Two posts to illustrate the different results that a 50/50 2PP can deliver.
At 50/50 2PP on election night.
Depending on state swings where NSW, Queensland & West Aus are the most important.
A uniform swing in all seats in each state (never happens) would give ALP 76, LNP 70, Others 4.
This is a change of 19 seats as follows:
Clearly NSW and Qld are where a swing of 3.4 to 4.4% is required.
NSW requires a uniform 3.4% swing (LNP 51% ALP 49%) for 7 seats to change.
QLD requires a uniform 4.4% swing (LNP 52.6% ALP 47.4%) for 5 seats to change.
WA requires a uniform 6.1% swing (LNP 52.2% ALP 47.8%) for 3 seats to change
VIC requires a uniform 3.3% swing (LNP 46.5% ALP 53.5%) for 1 seat to change
SA requires a uniform 1.9% swing (LNP 50.5% ALP 49.5%) for 1 seats to change
TAS requires a uniform 1.3% swing (LNP 47.5% ALP 52.5%) for 1 seats to change
ACT (PERHAPS) a 0.6% swing (LNP 37.7% ALP 62.3%) for 0 seats to change
NT requires a uniform 1.6% swing (LNP 48.7% ALP 51.3%) for 1 seat to change
These swings if they occur in each state as above give 50/50 2PP.
The seats to change party would be Banks, Eden-Monaro, Lindsay, Robertson, Page, Reid & Macarthur (NSW), Capricornia, Petrie, Bonner, Brisbane & Forde (QLD), Cowan, Hasluck & Burt (WA), Deakin (VIC), Hindmarsh (SA), Lyons (Tas) and Solomon (NT).
There may be a swing to the ALP, but it’s not going to be enough in the right seats! The Coalition is winning in the marginal seats that Labor needs!
Second post – still 50/50 2PP.
AN ALTERNATIVE POSSIBILITY
At 50/50 2PP on election night.
Depending on state swings where NSW, Queensland & West Aus are the most important.
A uniform swing in all seats in each state would give ALP 62, LNP 82, Others 4.
This is a change of just 5 seats as follows:
NSW with a uniform 2.6% swing (LNP 51.8% ALP 48.2%) for 0 seats to change.
QLD with a uniform 3.6% swing (LNP 53.4% ALP 46.6%) for 2 seats to change.
WA with a uniform 4.4% swing (LNP 53.9% ALP 46.1%) for 0 seats to change
VIC with a uniform 3.3% swing (LNP 46.5% ALP 53.5%) for 1 seat to change
SA with a uniform 7.0% swing (LNP 45.4% ALP 54.6%) for 1 seats to change
TAS with a uniform 1.1% swing (LNP 47.7% ALP 52.3%) for 0 seats to change
ACT (PERHAPS) a 5.0% swing (LNP 35.1% ALP 64.9%) for 0 seats to change
NT with a uniform 5.0% swing (LNP 45.4% ALP 54.6%) for 1 seat to change
These swings if they occur in each state as above still give a 50/50 2PP.
The only seats to change would be Capricornia & Petrie (QLD), Deakin (VIC), Hindmarsh (SA) and Solomon (NT).
At 50/50 2PP the result would most likely be somewhere in between. At ALP 52/48 2PP only bad luck would rob the ALP of victory. More to follow as numbers firm up in each state.
David Feeney is an absolute fool!
$2.3 million of working class
lizzie @ #113 Tuesday, May 17, 2016 at 4:37 pm
As well as Prahran 2014, this tactic was done by both the Greens and Labor in Newtown in 2015. Tried and true method, methinks.
When factoring in seats to change hands in SA, don’t forget to factor in NXT.
If the swing is on to NXT in some Liberal seats, they will fall to NXT, rather than Labor. So while they won’t go TO Labor, they will importantly be lost from the Coalition side of the pendulum.
Compact Crank,
you know there’s a difference between ignorance and stupidity, one of them is curable.
Your comments about the First People’s cultures are profoundly ill informed, e.g., there was and is physical evidence of settled people who lived in south east Victoria and used fish farming, there was and is evidence of different groups around the continent using different building methods, depending on the locale. An old friend of mine (an architect) has published a book on the subject of their different building methods.
There is also considerable evidence, also recently published of their knowledge of astronomy and their use of same for navigation, both on the land and on sea.
@Wesley Rickard
While you may well be right, and my sense is that the Coalition will narrowly win, I’m not sure we have enough evidence to be definitive on this. I do say this as someone who is very sceptical about marginal seat poling, and after 2013 I think with very good reason.
Basically the polls have settled down around the 51/49 to 50/50 area without any clear trend at present. I think it will break a point or three eventually but can’t say with any confidence in which direction.
Diogenes
Tuesday, May 17, 2016 at 6:03 pm
Di natale is cynically politicising the serious issue of penalty rates by attacking the independent Fair Work Commission..
“So is Shorten guaranteeing penalty rates will stay or is he leaving it up to the FWC?”
..agree, Dio ..it was a mistake to make that guarantee. But Shorten is now defending the FWC ..whereas Di Natale is playing wedge politics and committing to something he won’t ever be in a position to deliver..
..at least Shorten & the ALP have for more than 100 years fought for the wages and conditions of Aussie workers.. Greens have come to this issue lately, having never asked a question in the HoReps or Senate about maintaining penalty rates. Neither did they bother writing a submission to the FWC supporting penalty rates..
..your attempt at equivalence is lazy and disingenuous, Comrade..
Matt31 @ 172,
so you can demonstrate a better knowledge of how industrial relations works than Bill Shorten?
Do you understand how powerful it is for a government to make a submission to FWA supporting penalty rates? Clearly not. Dave Oliver was on &&$ this afternoon saying they clearly preferred the current system of an independent umpire. Do you not comprehend how handing the power to end penalty rates to a government is just poison for the workers? Do you even remember Workchoices?
Sorry, that should be 774 radio, as opposed to the upper case rubbish.
Satirical take by the Backburner on Shorten and his defence of penalty rates:
http://www.sbs.com.au/comedy/article/2016/05/17/labor-vows-protect-penalty-rates-right-until-moment-they-dont
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UIPSvIz9NDs
No one has heard of Dabid Feeney and I would suggest no one cares.
It will be interesting to see how the new Malcolm goes over with the voters after his attacks today.
I posted earlier today that I was interested in Bill Shorten making a statement before his pressed directly fronting the lies being floated by Turnbull re AS and labor.
I mused at the time that perhaps it was a sign of labor being hurt by the attacks but it seemed to me not something Shorten would do if that was the case. Why bring attention to any damage ?
Bill Shorten is a sharpe man and he does nothing without a purpose or tactic in mind. So the deliberate statement intrigued me.
Perhaps a warning to Turnbull ? I have idea but I found it interesting.
Cheers.
markjs
Obviously di Natale won’t be in power but is the government even allowed to dictate a FWC outcome?
The debate around the backpacker tax should really come back to the large amounts of tax practitioners who do not apply the laws around residency correctly. As a tax accountant who works on individual tax returns for 417 visa clients on a daily basis 90-95% of 417 clients should be non-residents and therefore pay 32.5 cents in the dollar tax on their income. Below is the resident criteria from the ATO.
As a general rule, to be considered a resident of Australia for tax purposes you need to fit one of the following criteria:
1) Always lived in Australian or moved to Australia to live here permanently.
2) Have been in Australia and lived continuously at one permanent place of lodgement for 6 or more months. The ATO generally asks for confirmation of where you lived by sighting a formal lease or tenancy agreement.
3)You are Australian but have been overseas temporarily and did not set up a permanent home in another country.
4)You are an overseas student enrolled in a course for more than 6 months’ duration.
The 2nd general criteria point is the big point. To be considered a resident you must live in the one residence or have permanent work for more than 183 days.
A condition of 417 visa recipients is that they are not allowed to work for the one employer for more than 6 months and have to be eligible to apply for a second year visa must conduct up to 6 months of rural farm work.
The above means that basically it is very rare for a backpacker on a 417 visa to live permanently in the one place for 6+ months meaning that they are likely to be non-residents.
Coming back to the point about the law changes. They don’t make sense when if the guidelines from the ATO are applied correctly the vast majority of 417 visa individuals would be non-residents.
So any change to the legislation should be to mandate that all 417 visa individuals are non-residents (the change the Coalition proposed), force tax practitioners to apply the guidelines from the ATO correctly or scrap the ATO guidelines and consider every 417 visa worker who comes to Australia a resident for tax purposes the time lived in Australia (to align with every other foreign visa class)
Just got robo called by Malcom Turnbull….
Very sad news about Jarryd Roughead. Let’s hope he beats the odds.
william bowe @ #13 Tuesday, May 17, 2016 at 2:09 pm
Great, thanks
Feeney hasn’t done his prospects much good. How can you not know if your $2.3 house is negatively geared?
I’ve been out of the loop today, so can anyone tell me what’s this David Pope cartoon about?
Diogenes,
for goodness sake, a submission to FWA from a government supporting the retention of penalty rates is very powerful. FWA would be certifiable to dismiss it.
Dave Oliver, ACTU, was very clear this afternoon, they wanted the flexibility to negotiate outcomes, as sometimes, they could negotiate penalty rates being rolled up into over all packages.
Well, there is some sad news for CC.
So what do the Libs think is good news about putting the “backpacker tax” on “hold” until after the election.
Yay! we wont levy this for another month, after you have put us back in Govt for 3 years so we can levy it anyway!!
Seriously??
The meaning of ‘civilization’ and any gradations thereof is in the eyes of the beholder and therefore readily lends itself to circular argument and to Compact Cranks.
One test of civilization is longevity qua sustainability.
On this test Aboriginal people are operating at a superiority ratio of around 20-30 times against western civilization.
No-one who is at all attuned to the environmental sustainability believes that western civilization is going to last 10,000 years, let alone 40-60,000 years.
I know that catastrophism is out of vogue. (Congratulations to the fossil fuel profiteers).
Here are some current clearly observable trends which have no particular discernible likelihood of not gaining speed.
Within a century the oceans will carry a larger mass of plastic than of fish.
Within one thousand years there will be no coral reefs.
Within ten thousand years sea levels will have risen by around 150 metres.
In less time than that most of the phytoplankton that produce half of Earth’s oxygen throughput will long be dead.
In less time than that, acidification will have reached levels that only a vanishingly small number of oceanic species can cope with.
The North Atlantic Conveyor will have stopped.
Other heat conveyor currents globally will be massively disrupted.
These will bring catastrophic climate, economic and political consequences.
There will have been an explosion in atmospheric methane concentrations.
The rate of capital formation will long have been inadequate to recapitalise smashed farming systems. The constant need to relocate farming systems and to adapt them to new and unpredictable climate regimes will produce famine.
The current situation of there being around 60 million displaced people will be multiplied twenty fold.
The number of failed states will have increased tenfold.
Food wars will be the norm.
States that do survive will do so by ever-increasing trends of command and control and draconian policing.
It is entirely possible that the property is joint owned with his wife and she is responsible for handling the family’s financial affairs.
It is also entirely possible that it wasn’t previously negatively geared but now it is, or that it is positively geared.