Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

The first poll of national voting intention in nearly a week records a significant drop in the Coalition’s primary vote.

Morgan has released a poll of federal voting intention derived only from this weekend’s round of face-to-face and SMS polling, and not combining two weeks of polling as per its usual practice. Compared with the poll from the two weekends before the election was called, the poll records a solid drop in the Coalition primary vote from 40% to 36.5%, with Labor up half a point to 33%, the Greens up two to 15.5% and the Nick Xenophon team up one to 5%. On the headline respondent-allocated measure of two-party preferred, this converts into an increase in Labor’s lead from 51-49 to 52.5-47.5. Going off 2013 election preference flows, the change is from 50.5-49.5 to 52-48. Despite the shorter than usual field work period, the sample is a considerable 2318.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

577 comments on “Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

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  1. I thought Turnboat was finished with 3 word slogans. Jobs and growth is just another dumbass slogan with no detail behind it.This has got to be one of the laziest govts in history.

  2. Briefly
    I disagree with your final paragraph. I think the Greens thirst for survival. Minor parties come and go and to stay a long term viable political party cant be easy for them. In that respect I have some sympathy for them. However, this thirst for survival causes suspect behaviour. One example is picking low hanging fruit by targeting disaffected ALP voters instead of improving the perception of progressive politics to the wider public.

  3. It is understood the ABC plans to absorb some Fact Check staff into the broadcaster’s Interactive Digital Storytelling Unit, based in Brisbane. While the ABC may use some form of fact checking for statements in future election campaigns, the standalone unit will be disbanded.

    What on earth does the ABC digital storytelling unit do – tell fairy tales?

  4. Competent analysts with whom I’ve discussed the ever changing data are still not carried away with the hubris flourishing on all sides in Crikey Land. Shorten et al may yet ensure a Coalition victory of course.

  5. What on earth does the ABC digital storytelling unit do – tell fairy tales?

    So that would be News24, 7:30 report and Insiders?

  6. [What on earth does the ABC digital storytelling unit do – tell fairy tales?]
    There are a few ABC journos that spring immediately to mind.

  7. Maybe Turnbull is the right man for the Fibs campaign.He can waffle on and on and on about nothing and fill pressers time slots saying jackshit about anything which is their whole empty headed agenda.

  8. Greens collaboration with the Coalition continues with their penalty rates campaign..

    Truffles cynically politicised the serious issue of road safety in the trucking industry by abolishing the independent Road Safety Remuneration Tribunal..

    Di natale is cynically politicising the serious issue of penalty rates by attacking the independent Fair Work Commission..

    Di Natale’s desire for widespread industrial & social unrest is obvious ..and aligns with the views of his Trotskyist candidate for Grayndler..

  9. Been out all morning and was going to make a comment, but every comment I wanted to make has been made.

    Excellent bunch of commentators, youse Bludgers are.

    Turnbull can’t fight this election on his own. No way. He’ll crash and burn short of the runway.

    The polling hiatus is only in 2PP. Personal ratings continue to go south for Turnbull. And in a 1-man party, that’s an important indicator of polling developments to come. I expect this to be a brief pause, than more 2PP degradation for the Liberals.

    TheLibs have thrown everything at this campaign – boats, terror, carbon, penalty rates, unions, the Budget – and still made no headway. All they ever seem to talk about is Labor-Labor-Bill-Shorten-Labor-Labor. It’s free publicity for Labor. Shows they are scared and a bit (maybe a lot) panicky.

    Turnbull won’t be able to keep up the pace, not with his dud candidates and his dud ministers.

    This will be another of his investments – this time a political investment – that “sadly did not make any money”, like Turnbull said about the Siberian gold mine. You move on in those circumstances and lick your wounds. There are too many Cartier watches to buy for Lucy, too many horse studs to run, too many beautiful places overseas for Malcolm to waste time with the second rate bunch of in-fighters and slogan quoters he’s been saddled with.

    He’s going against everything he once said he believed in. How disappointing it must be for him to see that he just can’t bring his party with him. And, even if he wins it’ll be by a greatly reduced margin. No landslides for Malcolm. That will just make things worse, and harder to manage.

    As soon as Turnbull realizes his in his heart of hearts, we’ll see the light of enthusiasm go out in his eyes. When a deal’s going to go wrong, it’s always best to cut your losses. Be alert for a Turnbull tantrum. That will be the first sign.

  10. Caught another Malcolm presser where he looks like Scott Nofriends (as distinguished from Scott Morrison..)

    God, he was awful. There were some potentially powerful messages in the waffle, but every time he came near one, he qualified it to death. A simple sentence appears to be beyond him.

    I pity the journos trying to get a 30 second grab out of all the straw.

  11. Hard to believe what a sell out this man has become just to serve right wing nut jobs.Shows how stupid the Fibs are by not going to an election as soon as the monkey was rolled.Totally wasted political capital by a group of turds who are obsessed with power and corruption at the expense of hardworking taxpayers.

  12. Heh… my electorate – Berowra – with a Lib margin of +19% is one of the few few electorates to have ZERO NBN useage, and while some is planned for 2018, at present there have been ZERO preparations made for construction.

  13. “Shows how stupid the Fibs are by not going to an election as soon as the monkey was rolled.Totally wasted political capital by a group of turds who are obsessed with power and corruption at the expense of hardworking taxpayers.”

    Nah that’s where I disagree with you. Julia Gillard went immediately to an election and pissed away the incumbency advantage. Public can also see the cynicism of going to an early election after rolling a prime minster. I’ll give credit for Malcolm Turnbull for not calling a snap poll, but thats the only credit I’ll give him.

  14. There was only 24 days between Gillard taking over and calling an election.Malcolm took 6 months.Talk about a slowie.

  15. [NBN type infrastructure is something the private sector should be doing when the commercial demand is there to support it – not the government. The ALP recognized this by setting it up to be sold – but has now created a monopoly which is a massive fail for the future development into the future.]
    A public held monopoly, say Telstra would almost certainly completed a full fibre to the node network about a decade ago and now it would be delivering close to best in world speed and service. We’d have had more than a decade of real innovation and the real jobs of the future and we wouldn’t need to be listening to Malcolm talk about pretend innovation and fictional jobs while using a network that is sliding us further and further away from a competitive position.
    But Howard knew better he sold telstra, spent the money on ridiculous CGT discounts for millionaires and clearly failed telecommunications market.

  16. The MSM always go on about reform and then never go on to say what the reform should be.Its no good talking about reform then being clueless to what that entails.

  17. God it is hilarious to see greens supporters trying to claim that Unions are somehow supporting them.

    These smug frauds should get out from behind their computer/device for a moment and head down to the local building site, wharf, workshop, mine site etc and ask the Union members their opinion of the Greens.

    I know what the reaction would be from the majority of blue collar working people and can guarantee it would not be at all pretty for the Greens.

    You can not constantly look down and sneer at working people and call them all sorts of names such as racists, xenophobes and bigots simply because they hold vastly different views that the Greens on many, many issues such as open borders asylum policies then expect these everyday Australians to fall in line behind the Greens and support their cynical political games all designed to destroy the party of the working class – The ALP.

    No doubt the Greens enjoy the support of the Quinoa, Kale and fair trade coffee Growers Union and the Human Rights lawyers/refugee advocates Union but I can tell you without hesitation that for the vast majority of working class Union members the Greens are nothing but a party full of yuppies, social justice warriors and guilt ridden liberals who are not to be trusted and who have no proven record or concern for ordinary working people,

  18. Notably … the Morgan Poll shows(and their record is not all that bad in past elections) is the fact that the poll shows the two major parties have just 70% of the national vote(Green.Zens/Others ) are polling a remarkable 30% is this is corect…and past trends would suggest this might be so
    It also shows a wider distrust and dislike of the two major parties…this may be significant in the Senate ,as we saw something like this in 2013

    I know some here will have a fit to hear this… but a less biased view of Di Natale is that he comes over
    well on the media(the Labor Right will have a fit of the vapours on hearing this ) but this may also account for the Green rise and the polls all show a Green vote among the very young voters somewhere in the low 30%,,,just a point below Labor’s polling ..I know 2 of my grand-children are voting for the first time and are voting Green …saying that this is common among their peer group at Uni ///…….and calling the Greens”The Split” is silly and childish …many younger Greens have never voted any other way in the last decade,or ever vote Labor

    ..and finally MARJS on this site,gave us an authentic … blast from the past…giving us a real bit of 1950ies McCarthyism/ describing the Green ccandidate for a Sydney seat as”Trotskyist”…real Menzies stuff …real McCarthyism…I remember all that…yes I’m that old but that was the style in those days …Dr Evatt was endless attacked in the media in such a way…and even worse by the later DLP…who happily were driven from the ALP along with the Movement members along with other Santamaria lovers ……some of who seem to be back in business if some comment on this site are correct …and indeed are in the ALP again if some rightwinger MPs are to be taken at face value

  19. Da-da-daaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa…. da-da-da-da-daaa-da.

    Da-da-daaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa…. da__da__da__da.



    (My text version of Bach’s Toccata and Fugue in D minor)

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