Morgan has released a poll of federal voting intention derived only from this weekend’s round of face-to-face and SMS polling, and not combining two weeks of polling as per its usual practice. Compared with the poll from the two weekends before the election was called, the poll records a solid drop in the Coalition primary vote from 40% to 36.5%, with Labor up half a point to 33%, the Greens up two to 15.5% and the Nick Xenophon team up one to 5%. On the headline respondent-allocated measure of two-party preferred, this converts into an increase in Labor’s lead from 51-49 to 52.5-47.5. Going off 2013 election preference flows, the change is from 50.5-49.5 to 52-48. Despite the shorter than usual field work period, the sample is a considerable 2318.
Commentators say that the ALP can’t win with a primary vote in the low thirties. Well, I can’t see the LNP winning with a primary vote in the mid thirties either. And, unlike Labor, they’re highly unlikely to get most of the Greens preferences.
Then again it is a Morgan.
That’s a decent sample size though.
peter (whishy washy ) whish-wilson sounds like a true believer.
A refugee from the failed US stockbroking giant Merrill Lynch, Whish-Wilson indulged his mid-life crisis with a sea change to the Tamar Valley, an investment in the obligatory small vineyard and wholehearted embrace of the fanciful policies of Senator Christine Milne and Senator Sarah (Sea Patrol) Hanson-Young.
After a pampered life at the big end of town, Whish-Wilson is now attempting to scale the slopes of the moral high ground erroneously claimed by his colleagues.
Just this week his enthusiastic, if predictably adolescent, contribution to the debate on the need to combat the truly evil adherents of the Islamic State death cult left him stranded on the treacherous pinnacle of moral equivalence
Gary Morgan, come on down! All is forgiven.
Whoo hoo!
The good thing about polls putting the Liberals behind (and yes, one poll doth not a swallow make), is the pressure it will put on the LNP. This will lead to errors on their part, and it may be that we can get rid of this nasty Govt bought and paid for by the IPA and the big end of town.
As I said on the other thread, it’s a Morgan, so I take it with a grain of salt. Having said that, they have picked up trends in recent times. A good poll for Labor and the Greens, a shocker for the Coalition. May it continue!
The Australian
The Australian – Verified account @australian
Wealthy families collecting lion’s share of $8 billion tax break on negative gearing. http://bit.ly/1EKuJrV
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3:14 PM – 27 Apr 2015
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Greens on 15.5% is a bit too high, methinks.
Who knows we might see toned abs back before the election ,if malcy’s numbers keep going south.
There have now been a couple of Morgan’s favorable to Labor.
Keane was writing in Crikey today that the right have successfully framed the education funding debate by claiming that the issue is not the amount of money but where it is spent. While they were attacking Storrar, they were also attacking the OECD report on GDP growth as a result of more funding (the full payoff wouldn’t be until 2095).
But I do not think the voters will buy it, anyone who has driven past a private school is aware of the discrepancy in funding and resources and the lack public schools have.
Very, very early on in the BER implementation the GG (then the OO), reported that some builders were agast when they first went into schools to prepare for new construction, at condition of buildings to be replaced
D&M
Such as Natash Griggs announcing a healthcare policy that forced Turnbull to cut short his visit to Perth and hightail it to Darwin.
The most significant results are the loss of Liberal primaries and the increase to the Greens and, in particular, Xenophon.
Blue-green Turnbull fanboys/girls deserting the Liberals and returning to the Greens, perhaps?
But that increase for Xenophon is ominous. Either he is picking up support elsewhere in Australia or his SA vote is getting into the mid 20s. If that is the case (as the modelling has shown) this is likely to impact at least 2 Liberal seats, maybe 3, but no Labor ones. If this plays out on the night, we could end up with the possibility of a hung parliament with NXT holding the BOP.
Interestingly, this gives both Labor and Liberal their “out” in terms of negotiating or doing deals to form government: both have said they won’t do deals with THE GREENS, but both have been so far silent on others forms if negotiated government.
D&M, very true, all I would edit is
This will lead to more errors on their part.
Just how many “train wreck” interviews has a Lib done in the last month.
Or run from a presser.
*of, not if, obviously
What was the Morgan after the budget?
jr – Totally right. Keane is on another planet if he thinks people are buying that momey doesn’t improve eductation.
The more I see the NXT poll numbers rise the better I feel about the potential for an exit for Briggs up here.
The locals are very much true blue but they don’t have any kind words for our Jamie.
Now wonder Malky’s been looking under pressure. I bet this trend is showing up in the internals. Someone should slap a big sticker on him: “Contents under Pressure”.
ABC are leading with breathless reporting of rift in leading ALP figures over nuanced variance in penalty rates policy. And Malcolm ‘sucker’ Turnbull weighs in on the rift, in a feigned high pitch voice.
Just like whenever boats are mentioned, it is bad for Labor, whenever penalty rates are mentioned, it is bad for the Liberals. Reason? The ghost of Workchoices.
Hold on a minute. You’re talking about my favourite pollster (since about the time I saw this poll).
Pending further evidence I’m calling this one an outlier. Does anyone strongly disagree?
Would be a great result, if it wasn’t Morgan. I highly doubt Greens go from 8.5 to 15.5 while Labor doesn’t gain in primary vote compared to 2013. Could it be SMS polling favors Greens?
We need more polls!!!
DARN: How can you call it an outlier until you do get further evidence. Until you do, it is what it is.
Kevin
As one or two others have said it just doesn’t look right.
It looks weird for the PM to be doing a presser all by himself.
Yep totally a Morgan.
I watched the nine news and seven news tonight here in Brisbane and both were very favourable to labor re the penalty rate issue and general wrap for today.
Either Bill impressed them with his fire in the belly today or else it was one of the wildcard days today to give labor some positive vibes.
Either way not to bad at all. Looks like the Greens may have fired their ammo but failed to hit the target.
ABC of course yet to come.
BTW, Banks up for a flogging tomorrow plus some more ” Turnbull economics ”
Cheers.
[Darn
Monday, May 16, 2016 at 6:25 pm
Pending further evidence I’m calling this one an outlier. Does anyone strongly disagree?]
I disagree. I can’t find a happy Lib and some will be voting Labor to turf another Labor PM who knifed a first term PM 🙂
gorkay king @ #22 Monday, May 16, 2016 at 6:26 pm
15.5% to the Spiltters? pffft! This is a confection. Morgan has been under-stating the Labor PV ever since Turnbot was re-throned. I’m saying Labor is @ 38 or 39, the Split @ 8 or 9.
Zoom
After Fiona Scott embarrassed Malcolm in Penrith, the minders would have vetoed the ‘Pilipino Porn Star’ lookalike Sherry Sufi. He is the head of the WA Liberal policy committee – so far Sherry has come up with:
– same sex marriage leads to polygamy
– recognising aboriginals in the Constitution divisive
– a doctored and dodgy CV
The candidate from hell
:large
If paying less for things and failing to invest works as an economic theory, why not try it first on our politicians.
Could lift the standard of agility a notch or two.
Doyley,
The Greens always throw the pin and not the hand grenade.
rummel:
Malcolm also seems to have trouble finding happy Libs to accompany him on the campaign trail. And I’d love to know why the Lib candidate in Freo is being hidden away from the media. It looked weird Turnbull visiting the seat unaccompanied by their own candidate!
sprocket_ @ #30 Monday, May 16, 2016 at 6:36 pm
He is obviously a Dennis Jensen protege. Wow. Where do they find em? Mind you, he could be drafted as the replacement for Colin Barnett.
Wouldn’t it be correct to say that every poll is an “outlier” unless it is part of an observed statistically significant trend?
However, I do like the idea that this might put the Liberals into a bit of a spin psychologically
confessions @ #33 Monday, May 16, 2016 at 6:40 pm
Have a look at the amigo for Fremantle..
The candidate from hell
:large
Confessions:
I’m going for a Labor win. The worm has turned and Turnbull has no supporter base within the Libs like Gillard did in Labor to drag her through an election. He is toast!
confessions Monday, May 16, 2016 at 6:40 pm
The Liberal candidate for Fremantle is Sherry Sufi. To quote sprocket_ Monday, May 16, 2016 at 6:36 pm
Wow, Morgan poll is nuts. Surely that’s an outlier, even if I’m happy to see that.
From previous thread:
___cog___ @ #1144 Monday, May 16, 2016 at 3:08 pm
Apparently even Wilkie is doing it, I remembered and article where he sent out such a letter but he made it clear that it was him, and people were free to send it to him or to send it straight to the AEC.
b.c. @ #1 Monday, May 16, 2016 at 6:06 pm
With these numbers, it looks like a hung parliament is more likely.
Why doesn’t this one follow the general trend. We’ve had essential at 48 – 52 (and newspoll?) The budget has washed out of the system and everybody is waking up to the fact that it was a s… budget. That usually takes a week or two. So, on one reading, this poll is right on time.
Sprocket:
Good grief! What is it with WA Liberals that their candidates are all raving numpties! He makes Rick Wilson look positively mainstream!!
Reducing the money to be invested in the submarines should be a real winner – go for the lowest quote on Australian nails, cardboard, flags etc. We could save billions andf still get a satisfactory outcome just like our public schools.
Rummel:
I’m not prepared to write off the coalition at this point. I agree they’re hamstrung by the absence of a coherent agenda, but they do have the benefit of incumbency, and the capacity to appeal to voters to give them another shot to this time get it right.
Katherine Murphy has noted that Malcolm has had two mini-tantrums in a few days. I think he’s got internal-poll-itis. Jesus, for once I might actually be right about who’s going to win the election!
I’m enjoying Morgan!
kevin-one-seven @ #46 Monday, May 16, 2016 at 6:51 pm
Turnbot will just burst one day
Just been ReachTel’d —
Questions – who are you voting for, how likely are you to change your mind, which party are you closest to, who will you vote for in the Senate?
Which of these issues do you rate highest – health, education, cost of living, unemployment, economic management, renewable energy, climate change.
Question: there has been a $13.5 billion cut to Victorian Health. Has this made it more or less likely you would vote for…
Which of these investments do you think will benefit the economy in the long run? (2 Questions): Renewable energy or coal? Education or cutting business taxes?
Some more details emerging of Sherry Sufi’s embellishment of his CV
“Earlier today it was revealed Mr Sufi misdescribed his work background in his original application for pre-selection.
Mr Sufi asserts in his application for endorsement that he works as a research officer for the Department of the Premier and Cabinet.
In fact, Mr Sufi, 33, has worked for State politicians Michael Sutherland and Liz Behjat.
Similarly, Mr Sufi’s application to the Liberal Party, seen by The West Australian, claims he worked for Department of Finance and Deregulation in 2014-15 when in fact he worked briefly as a staffer for Federal Liberal MP-turned-independent Dennis Jensen and for Liberal senator Linda Reynolds.
In both instances, he named the paymaster but not the effective employer.”
https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/31606227/liberal-candidate-caught-out-over-job-claims/