Morgan has released a poll of federal voting intention derived only from this weekend’s round of face-to-face and SMS polling, and not combining two weeks of polling as per its usual practice. Compared with the poll from the two weekends before the election was called, the poll records a solid drop in the Coalition primary vote from 40% to 36.5%, with Labor up half a point to 33%, the Greens up two to 15.5% and the Nick Xenophon team up one to 5%. On the headline respondent-allocated measure of two-party preferred, this converts into an increase in Labor’s lead from 51-49 to 52.5-47.5. Going off 2013 election preference flows, the change is from 50.5-49.5 to 52-48. Despite the shorter than usual field work period, the sample is a considerable 2318.
I know it’s Morgan, but I’ll take it. It’s a decent sized sample. Interesting to see the Xenophon vote in S.A., might just cause Pyne to wet his pants.
K17:
I was only saying yesterday that I’d observed Turnbull coming close to having a tanty in interviews, but he’d managed to pull back and hold it together.
Isn’t it funny we wait desperately for a poll and as soon as we get one we want another poll to verify it.
Turnbull tantrums. Poll aftershocks leading to new full-blown quakes. Gradual slippage in Turnbull’s approval.
All predictable, and predicted.
They’re toast.
Briefly:
Mark Textor said Shorten may well end up looking like the UK Labour leader by campaign’s end, but perhaps Turnbull will end the campaign looking like Latham only with a journo not Shorten!
Kevin
As one or two others have said it just doesn’t look right.
—————————-
The sameKevin bonham and the others like William Bowe, who predicted Libs to get 30 seats in S.A , LNP 54+ in qld ?
I’m always sceptical about Morgan, we’ll see if this trend is further replicated in the next Essential media poll, Newspoll and IPSOS.
However, this should give Labor some confidence for the next few days.
And Dutton’s nasty attack on Tanya today looked like desperate politics to me.
Oh, politics in the Pub… The Libs are desperate.
fess
Why should WA Libs be any different to Libs everywhere else? A numpty party attracts numpty candidates.
WP – Totally right. I don’t see why this isn’t in the ball park. The budget did nothing except give money to big corporations. It was a stinker. But, as usual, it takes a week or two for that to reflect in the polls. Plus, people are starting to say about malcolm: we’ve given you enough time to prove yourself. You’re a disappointment.
“Labor up half a point to 33%, the Greens up two to 15.5% and the Nick Xenophon team up one to 5%. ”
HA HA HA HA!!!! I just read something funny Labor has an election winning lead with a primary vote of 33%, and also the Greens nationally a polling 15.5%. HA HA HA HA HA HA!!!! Oh my Roy Morgan polls can give me a good laugh.
Seriously though I don’t trust Morgan, never have, never will. Ever since they botched the 2001 federal election polling a strong Labor win I have never trusted them.
Oh dear! Those nasty Greens seem to have got almost all the swing! Some might think this says something about certain probs with current (“we’ll never do a deal”)ALP strategy, but I’m sure it won’t deter the fanatics here, no matter what the electoral consequences! 😉
Toolman on the ABC reckons the Coalition should fear an opposition leader with nothing to lose…….is it just me who finds him and his ABC fellows more and more irrelevant?
You’re making both of those things up.
Re Turnball – how embarrassing for him doing a presser in Fremantle with the Liberal candidate missing in action! Did Truffles really think that seat was winnable?
Labor’s preselected the candidate they should have picked in the first place, betting Josh Wilson increases Melissa Parke’s margin from 2013
Libs and Turnbull seem to be the classic frog in the pot which is staying still and unflustered as the electoral heat is turned up by Labor. Eventually they are cooked.
Shorten’s tactics are about doing the Libs slowly.
The prob for the ALP this election will be all those new young Greens voters hitting the ballot box. The problem for the Libs will be the combined ALP/Green vote. lets hope the ALP aren’t really silly enough to shoot themselves in the foot over Green “deals”, despite the shriller posters here. Personally I seriously doubt that they really are.
I just saw that on facebook. I thought it was a totally Darwin thing to do and quite appropriate for the setting.
fess,
I reckon Turnbull can’t hold it together for the rest of the campaign. It’s only day 1 of week 2.
I heard a sound grab of him being questioned about the absence of the candidate for Freo and he bellowed (again), “I’m the Prime Minister and blah, blah, I hope he’s out in the electorate blah, blah”.
Sounded both arrogant and that he didn’t have a clue about the local candidate, or alternatively, there’s either no coordination from Lib. central, or alternatively, there is coordination and Malcolm didn’t want the local candidate anywhere near him, as he immediately repudiated all the positions attributed to Sufi.
Looks like pretty intense internal tension to me. Looks to me like Turnbull is also internally conflicted – “What the hell am I doing trying to get these idiots elected, when they don’t appreciate figjam”?
He’s going to blow up, I reckon.
True. But we don’t have the same level of feral talkback radio and tabloids here like they do in other states, such as NSW which are a focal point for Liberals to cluster around. And yes it’s true we have state Lib MPs who take numpty to whole new levels, but still. We’re by and large a more restrained and conservative population in my view.
fess,
Perhaps Malcolm could ride a crocodile in to the bar.
Two things stand out in this Morgan that must terrify the L/NP:
“The ALP leads easily with electors under 50: 18-24yr olds (ALP 65.5% cf. L-NP 34.5%), and 25-34yr olds (ALP 67% cf. L-NP 33%) and 35-49yr olds (ALP 54% cf. L-NP 46%)”
“Women: ALP 56.5% (up 2.5%) cf. L-NP 43.5% (down 2.5%).”
Why is Malcolm doing a train-wreck whistlestop in Fremantle, barely in WA for a day, and then highttailing it off to Darwin? Something smells wrong here.
Is Peta Credlin available cor some contract campaign work with hubby?
Re Briefly @6:42PM: why is the Liberal Fremantle candidate wearing dark glasses and a fake beard and mustache? Is he trying to go about incognito?
Monica L:
I’m still remembering all those times we predicted the same of Abbott. He couldn’t be disciplined, he couldn’t stop the brain farts, he couldn’t be statesmanlike. His implosion never happened until after the coalition had been voted in.
Chris Kenny,
you’re game to come on Pollbludger. We will do you and not slowly.
GG:
That’d at least give the NT News reason to put his visit on the front page tomorrow.
In your dreams, pal.
Labor has taken a while to wake up the toxic nature of having anything to do with the Greens. Dirty Dealer Di Natale is merely the poisonous icing on the Greens’ Deadly Nightshade cake.
Ah GG, the ALP certainly do seem to be doing the Libs “slowly” on the basis of this poll! Just a .5% lift on primaries? Still not prepared to accept help from the Greens 2.5% boost?
The Libs still have the Murdoch media and talkback radio behind them, we Laborites shouldn’t get complacent, the attacks on Shorten and co will get shriller and shriller and nastier and nastier.
steve777 @ #75 Monday, May 16, 2016 at 7:26 pm
I think that would be a very good idea…the less people know of him the better he will perform
I thought that the NSW Libs had got their $4.4million last week, appears I was mistaken :
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/federal-election-2016/federal-election-2016-liberals-still-denied-44m-in-funding/news-story/c3e95f66c59815a2b377840847398d15?utm_content=SocialFlow&utm_campaign=EditorialSF&utm_source=TheAustralian&utm_medium=Twitter
Apart from Turnbull, very few of the Lib Ministers are out and about electioneering. Pyne’s had a few pithy comments and Morrison has blustered about the Budget. But, nothing really convincing coming out.
Perhaps they think the electorate is not engaged and are keeping their powder dry atm.
Somehow I don’t think it’s the real Chris Kenny.
If money doesn’t buy better education maybe we could freeze (or better, cut) handouts to private schools. Revive Latham’s hitlist. Donto private schools what the Government wants to do to Medicare.
monica lynagh @ #77 Monday, May 16, 2016 at 7:27 pm
If it’s the real Chris Kenny…at least it’s not another Splitter.
Ever read the letters to the editor in The West? When I arrived back here from Sydney, and being an avid reader of the letters in the SMH, I couldn’t believe the contrast to those that are published in The West. If that’s a representative sample of Sandgropers (and I don’t believe it is, or at least I hope it isn’t), it’s no wonder “Easties” look down their nose at us. They’re even more batshit crazy than the letters in the Tellmecrap.
Gotta agree with GG.
(Geez…last night Bemused, and now tonight GG… where will this convergence end?)
Sorry Boerwar. I used to enjoy your posts here in the “old days”, but the current rants just don’t do the old ‘you’ justice. We both know the ALP will be more than happy to accept Green prefs and also the votes of Green parliamentarians if it makes the dif between Government or non Government.
Stop the silly charades and get back to what you were once good at – fighting tories! “More bore” just doesn’t have the same ring as the “Boerwar”of old!
BTW, nice riposte, William.
Interesting to see the new visitors to the site.
Rod,
Smoke it while you can, comrade.
I simply don’t believe the figures in this poll from Morgan.
It’s out of kilter with most recent polls. So, I’ll wait verification before giving such numbers any real credence.
Hey, but you pump it for all it’s worth. Could be the crowning glory for the Greens this time around.
I don’t even think it’s one of those, Monica.
The personality clashes here are more entertaining than the actual election lol
He sent the email late a night – it was not supposed to go to so many people – but at no stage does he deny that The Climate Skeptics Handbook is something he sees useful for debunking the idea of anthropogenic global warming:
http://www.abc.net.au/triplej/programs/hack/electricity-boss-mistakenly-sends-climate-skeptic-handbook/7418740
greensborough growler @ #84 Monday, May 16, 2016 at 7:29 pm
They have no powder, either wet or dry, GG. They know it. The whole thing is a comedy. Their election policies are contained in the budget. The budget has nothing in it that’s remotely saleable…and in any case is already out of date. The essentials of the budget were framed in 2014. It is an archive piece, not a depiction of the future. The Lib Ministers would do very well to stay out of the way and let Turnbot lose all by himself, just as Rudd, Latham and Howard were each allowed to sink unaided.
Why did Turnbull bother going to Freo? Seem he was on a hiding to nothing.
Perhaps Malcolm could ride a crocodile in to the bar.
Perhaps he could wrestle one. What would Abbott do?
ru,
Maybe he’s got a bit on the side.
When my baby smiles I go to Freo…….
We are barely in week 2 and another candidate from hell emerges from under a rock
”
Sophie Mirabella suspects the Victorian Liberal Party campaign headquarters is behind a series of damaging leak to journalists to undermine her as she battles to reclaim the regional seat of Indi from independent Cathy McGowan.
When asked would it surprise her if last Monday’s story in The Australian, with the headline, “Mirabella: she’s cooked”, actually emanated from her own camp, the former member for Indi, who lost by just 439 votes in 2013, laughed ruefully.
“It’s better not to say,” she told 7.30.
“But if you show me the name of the journalist I might be able to point you in the right direction. You can usually guess it 90 per cent of the time.
“What do they say? If you want a friend in politics, get a dog.””