After teasing us a little confusingly with results to secondary questions in the Sunday Mail yesterday, the Courier-Mail today comes good with state voting intention numbers from the Galaxy poll that gave us the federal numbers published on Saturday (paywalled link here). The poll has the Liberal National Party up three points on the primary vote to 44% in the immediate wake of Tim Nicholls’ leadership coup against Lawrence Springborg the Friday before last, with Labor down a point to 36% and the Greens down one to 9%. This translates into a two-party lead to the LNP of 52-48, compared with 51-49 at the last such poll a month ago. Since then, however, the state’s electoral system has unexpectedly switched from optional to compulsory preferential voting. Galaxy was previously coping with the volatile preference behaviour under OPV by using an average of the last three elections for its preference flows. I’m not sure what they’re doing now, but the published result is what you get if you apply a typical compulsory preference flow such as the one from the 2013 federal election, when Greens votes in Queensland went 80-20 to Labor, while the rest went 55-45 to the Coalition.
The poll also finds Annastacia Palaszczuk down seven on approval to 44% and up seven on disapproval, which is in comparison with a poll conducted in February. Tim Nicholls opens his account with an unspectacular 25% approval and 30% disapproval, with 45% reserving judgement. The results published yesterday related that Nicholls’ coup had 42% approval and 27% disapproval, but also showed Palaszczuk leading 44% to 29% as preferred premier. The poll was conducted Tuesday and Wednesday evening from a sample of 1176.