ReachTEL Tasmanian electorates polling

A poll of Tasmania’s electorates finds the Liberals grimly hanging on in the three seats gained from Labor in 2013, and independent Andrew Wilkie going untroubled in Denison.

Today’s Sunday Tasmanian has results from ReachTEL polling of each of the five lower house seats in Tasmania, from a combined sample of 3019. The report says the poll credits the Liberals with 51-49 leads in Bass and Lyons, independent Andrew Wilkie with an increased majority in Denison, Labor member Julie Collins with a lead of 54-46 in Franklin, and Liberal member Brett Whiteley with a primary vote lead of 42.7% to 32.6% in Braddon, suggesting little change on his 2.6% winning two-party margin in 2013. The Jacqui Lambie Network would find “solid support” in the northern electorates, particularly her home base of Braddon, but has just 2.7% support in Denison and 2.5% in Franklin (this being before exclusion of around 7.5% undecided). I will be able to go into greater depth on these results tomorrow, but will be beaten to it by Kevin Bonham, who promises to publish a comprehensive overview at 8.30am.

In other partly reported poll news, Brisbane’s Sunday Mail has a tranche of state results from that Galaxy poll that provided federal results yesterday, but none of the voting intention numbers are provided in the online report. The report does relate that Tim Nicholls’ coup against Lawrence Springborg the Friday before last had 42% approval and 27% disapproval, and that Annastacia Palaszczuk leads Nicholls as preferred premier by 44% to 29%. Much is made of the fact that this isn’t as good for Palaszczuk as the 54-26 she happened to record against Lawrence Springborg in November. There will be voting intention eventually, I promise.

UPDATE: Kevin Bonham details the full results from the ReachTEL poll. The published respondent-allocated results have the Liberals leading 51-49 in Bass (54.0-46.0 at the 2013 election), 53-47 in Braddon (52.6-47.4) and 51-49 in Lyons (51.2-48.8), with Labor ahead 54-46 in Franklin (55.1-44.9). Each of these results is better for Labor than a 2013 election allocation would have been, particularly in Franklin (where Labor’s lead would have been 52.4-47.6) and Lyons (where the Liberals would have led 54.1-45.9). In Denison, Andrew Wilkie records 33.2% of the primary vote, down from 38.1% at the election, with Labor up from 24.8% to 27.3%. However, ReachTEL has published a Wilkie-versus-Liberal two-party result rather than Wilkie-versus-Labor, of 66-34, even though it was Labor who finished second last time, and would do so again on these numbers. The Jacqui Lambie Network’s average across the five seats is 5.3%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,316 comments on “ReachTEL Tasmanian electorates polling”

  1. peter (whishy washy ) whish-wilson sounds like a true believer.
    A refugee from the failed US stockbroking giant Merrill Lynch, Whish-Wilson indulged his mid-life crisis with a sea change to the Tamar Valley, an investment in the obligatory small vineyard and wholehearted embrace of the fanciful policies of Senator Christine Milne and Senator Sarah (Sea Patrol) Hanson-Young.

    After a pampered life at the big end of town, Whish-Wilson is now attempting to scale the slopes of the moral high ground erroneously claimed by his colleagues.

    Just this week his enthusiastic, if predictably adolescent, contribution to the debate on the need to combat the truly evil adherents of the Islamic State death cult left him stranded on the treacherous pinnacle of moral equivalence.

  2. It’s Morgan, so we should take it with a grain of salt; although recently it seems to have at least picked up trends, even if the pv figures are odd. Hope the drop in the Coalition pv plus increase for the Greens is picked up in other polls.

  3. Commentators say that the ALP can’t win with a primary vote in the low thirties. Well, I can’t see the LNP winning with a primary vote in the mid thirties either. And, unlike Labor, they’re highly unlikely to get most of the Greens preferences.

    Then again it is a Morgan.

  4. There have now been a couple of Morgan’s favorable to Labor.

    Keane was writing in Crikey today that the right have successfully framed the education funding debate by claiming that the issue is not the amount of money but where it is spent. While they were attacking Storrar, they were also attacking the OECD report on GDP growth as a result of more funding (the full payoff wouldn’t be until 2095).
    But I do not think the voters will buy it, anyone who has driven past a private school is aware of the discrepancy in funding and resources and the lack public schools have.
    Very, very early on in the BER implementation the GG (then the OO), reported that some builders were agast when they first went into schools to prepare for new construction, at condition of buildings to be replaced.

  5. Nicholas
    #217 Sunday, May 15, 2016 at 1:47 pm

    Labor would be afraid of being associated with anything resembling accurate diagnosis of our country’s economic ills.

    ———————————————–

    One of the most foolish comments I have seen on this site in the 9 years or so I have been reading it.

    I am almost looking forward to the Greens and LNP trying to form a functioning minority government. It will be farking hilarious watching them both contort their self-righteous absolutist rhetoric into self-rogering pretzels.

    Could be the best thing to happen to Labor in decades.

    Got your head right up your arse on this occasion, Nicholas. Watch out for the pretzels.

    And I say all that as somebody who has frequently argued that the Greens and Labor need to work out some kind of truce to at least keep this shit to a minimum.

    ———————————————-
    ———————————————-

    briefly
    #245 Sunday, May 15, 2016 at 2:12 pm

    And if neither side could govern a new election would ensue. Far better to let the voters decide than to submit to Greenmail.

    ———————————-

    This.

  6. Oops! Back to “save what is left of the furniture” mode, Mal?
    @GhostWhoVotes
    #Morgan Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 47.5 (-1.5) ALP 52.5 (+1.5) #ausvotes

  7. Still, Mal doesn’t have to worry. ALP won’t do deals with the Greens it seems according to many here, so #Morgan Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 36.5 (-3.5) ALP 33 (+0.5) GRN 15.5 (+2) NXT 5 (+1) won’t really get Bill over the line. 🙁

  8. ___cog___ @ #1144 Monday, May 16, 2016 at 3:08 pm

    Why do the Coalition, Labor and Greens send out postal vote application forms with a return paid envelope addressed to their respective electoral campaign offices rather than the AEC?
    (Rhetorical question really as I know the answer)
    https://www.reddit.com/r/australia/comments/4ixc8w/disappointing_tactics_from_everyone_this_election/?

    Apparently even Wilkie is doing it, I remembered and article where he sent out such a letter but he made it clear that it was him, and people were free to send it to him or to send it straight to the AEC.

  9. Haven’t they always, Raaraa? Only difference here is that we’ve actually received one from Labor before receiving ten from the usually blanket bombing Libs! Mind you, it was for the wrong electorate (we’ve been moved by the AEC from McEwen to Scullin). Still, its the thought that counts! 😉

  10. dan gulberry @ #1300 Monday, May 16, 2016 at 6:03 pm

    Brendan O’Connor @BOConnorMP
    In another partisan move, the Govt appoints 4 more employer reps to FWC, taking the tally to 7 – 0 and removing any sense of balance

    Is this the “independent body” that will determine penalty rates?
    That doesn’t look like they’re going to give an impartial judgement. If they do come down on the employers side (and why wouldn’t they, given they’re all employer reps), that will pretty much destroy all the good work Bill Shorten has done to date.

    It will initially destroy the credibility of the FWC and ultimately the FWC itself, to be replaced by a fairer body.

  11. BK
    thanks for good wishes, going to be hard not being in close proximity to Prunefacebut I will battle on. Have applied for a postal vote to go to friend’s place in UK so I can vote I think Pruneface will be hoping it won’t get there

  12. As a unionist, I say thanks for nothing, Pegasus. While the rest of us try to protect working conditions, you are out there undermining them by supporting a party which is trying to guarantee the destruction of workers rights through the election of the Coalition. Shame on you.

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