ReachTEL Tasmanian electorates polling

A poll of Tasmania’s electorates finds the Liberals grimly hanging on in the three seats gained from Labor in 2013, and independent Andrew Wilkie going untroubled in Denison.

Today’s Sunday Tasmanian has results from ReachTEL polling of each of the five lower house seats in Tasmania, from a combined sample of 3019. The report says the poll credits the Liberals with 51-49 leads in Bass and Lyons, independent Andrew Wilkie with an increased majority in Denison, Labor member Julie Collins with a lead of 54-46 in Franklin, and Liberal member Brett Whiteley with a primary vote lead of 42.7% to 32.6% in Braddon, suggesting little change on his 2.6% winning two-party margin in 2013. The Jacqui Lambie Network would find “solid support” in the northern electorates, particularly her home base of Braddon, but has just 2.7% support in Denison and 2.5% in Franklin (this being before exclusion of around 7.5% undecided). I will be able to go into greater depth on these results tomorrow, but will be beaten to it by Kevin Bonham, who promises to publish a comprehensive overview at 8.30am.

In other partly reported poll news, Brisbane’s Sunday Mail has a tranche of state results from that Galaxy poll that provided federal results yesterday, but none of the voting intention numbers are provided in the online report. The report does relate that Tim Nicholls’ coup against Lawrence Springborg the Friday before last had 42% approval and 27% disapproval, and that Annastacia Palaszczuk leads Nicholls as preferred premier by 44% to 29%. Much is made of the fact that this isn’t as good for Palaszczuk as the 54-26 she happened to record against Lawrence Springborg in November. There will be voting intention eventually, I promise.

UPDATE: Kevin Bonham details the full results from the ReachTEL poll. The published respondent-allocated results have the Liberals leading 51-49 in Bass (54.0-46.0 at the 2013 election), 53-47 in Braddon (52.6-47.4) and 51-49 in Lyons (51.2-48.8), with Labor ahead 54-46 in Franklin (55.1-44.9). Each of these results is better for Labor than a 2013 election allocation would have been, particularly in Franklin (where Labor’s lead would have been 52.4-47.6) and Lyons (where the Liberals would have led 54.1-45.9). In Denison, Andrew Wilkie records 33.2% of the primary vote, down from 38.1% at the election, with Labor up from 24.8% to 27.3%. However, ReachTEL has published a Wilkie-versus-Liberal two-party result rather than Wilkie-versus-Labor, of 66-34, even though it was Labor who finished second last time, and would do so again on these numbers. The Jacqui Lambie Network’s average across the five seats is 5.3%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,316 comments on “ReachTEL Tasmanian electorates polling”

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  2. pegasus @ #1236 Monday, May 16, 2016 at 5:00 pm

    POSS

    Personally, if I were di Natale, I wouldn’t be pursuing Labor over it. It’s very aggressive politics, and I don’t know how well it’ll go down if non-partisan and Greens-aligned progressive voters prefer the leftist parties to be uniting against the Coalition. It’ll be interesting to see how di Natale’s campaign tactics end up playing out.

    I have reached that view as well.
    We will find out the consequences after polling day!

    In other words, it’s becoming clear to the New Groupers that their scurrilous tactics will only further alienate Labor decision-makers, Labor voters and their own disheartened supporters, all of whom can see Split Politics for what it is – a gambit to obstruct a Labor win.

  3. Oh, Jesus, newsflash: Pegasus is only concentrating on the Greens campaign. It’s over I tell you, it’s over.

  4. Crikey, Bernard Keane.

    Bernard Keane, Crikey politics editor: The more discussion there is about a hung Parliament and working with the Greens, the worse it is for Labor. It increasingly looks like the Greens are deliberately pushing the issue to undermine their primary opponents, and they are likely being successful at that. For swinging voters, the easiest way to deal with the possibility of a return to the Labor-Green union of the Gillard years is to vote Liberal. When the agenda switches to bread-and-butter issues of concern to voters, as we saw in Friday night’s debate, Bill Shorten, for all his lack of polish, looks much more assured.

  5. AS markjs pointed out, Greens Senator Whish-Wilson said that penalty rates are “outdated” – I presume you will condemn him for that position?

  8. 25/08/2013: http://greens.org.au/greens-will-defend-penalty-rates

    Greens small business spokesperson, Peter Whish-Wilson, said he supported existing Greens policy in defence of penalty rates.

    “The Greens and I support the current arrangements and will vote to defend them,” said Senator Whish-Wilson.

    “There are a range of ways the pressure can be taken off small business without changes to rights and protections of workers – any other interpretation of my recent public comments is wrong.

    “The Greens recognise we should be supporting small business owners, which is why our plan lowers tax rates by 2%, expands tax breaks, and provides extra funding and legislative powers for the national Small Business Commissioner,” he concluded.

  9. This is what the greens really think.

    GREENS senator Peter Whish-Wilson believes his party can double its vote by courting small business and has backed a “bigger national discussion” about weekend penalty rates, suggesting they are outdated.

    The winery owner, who is fighting to retain in his own right the Senate spot vacated by former Greens leader Bob Brown, said penalty rates were part of a “white Anglo-Saxon cultural” inheritance no longer relevant for many workers.

    “No one seems to want to take on the issues of industrial relations — Tony Abbott, I was quite surprised in the national debate, put on record that they are not going to go near penalty rates if they are elected,” Senator Whish-Wilson said.

    “Labor has said they are not going to. I think picking apart workers’ rights is a real slippery slope, and there’s been a lot of work that has gone into giving them these rights.

    “But I think we need a bigger discussion nationally about weekends versus weekdays. I think it’s just a white Anglo-Saxon cultural thing that we’ve inherited. Society is different now.

  10. Lizzie

    Crikey, Bernard Keane.

    Bernard Keane, Crikey politics editor: The more discussion there is about a hung Parliament and working with the Greens, the worse it is for Labor. It increasingly looks like the Greens are deliberately pushing the issue to undermine their primary opponents, and they are likely being successful at that. For swinging voters, the easiest way to deal with the possibility of a return to the Labor-Green union of the Gillard years is to vote Liberal. When the agenda switches to bread-and-butter issues of concern to voters, as we saw in Friday night’s debate, Bill Shorten, for all his lack of polish, looks much more assured.

    Lizzie I came to the same conclusion as Bernard Keane late last week. This morning attack on Labor by the Greens just confirmed that this is the game they are playing.

    Science funding will all but disappear.

  11. I disagree with Keane’s analysis. I would think that the Greens advertising that a vote for them means a possible second election would encourage lefty types to vote Labor to avoid one.

  13. Just got polled by an actual human being from Galaxy – Griffith electorate Queensland. Vote this election, last election, view of local candidates, likelihood of changing mind, most important issue. Interesting to see if it turns up in the public domain.

  15. Z
    ‘If Manus/Nauru are concentration camps, then so are the camps run throughout the world by the UNHCR (which we are regularly told by posters here are so bad they justify people risking their lives in leaky boats rather than going to them).’

    IMO, there are significant differences between UNHCR and Australian refugee camps.
    UNHCR camps actually focus on helping the inmates.
    Whereas there can be no doubt at all that the Duttonistas focus on bastardising the Aussie concentration camp inmates.

  16. I didn’t “interpret” Peter Wish-Wilson’s recent comments on penalty rates ..I think “out-dated” (his words) speaks for itself..

  17. zoomster @ #1261 Monday, May 16, 2016 at 5:24 pm

    I disagree with Keane’s analysis. I would think that the Greens advertising that a vote for them means a possible second election would encourage lefty types to vote Labor to avoid one.

    It may encourage some to vote Labor and others of a more centrist persuasion to vote LNP. The New Groupers are running high-risk politics. They have very little choice, I suppose. They are going to lose Senators and the B-o-P. The last thing they would want to see is a successful Labor Government and they have obviously chosen to work to prevent one coming into existence.

  18. Whish Wilson:

    The winery owner, who is fighting to retain in his own right the Senate spot vacated by former Greens leader Bob Brown, said penalty rates were part of a “white Anglo-Saxon cultural” inheritance no longer relevant for many workers.

    OTOH, Dirty Dick Di Natale: Wants to legislate penalty rates.

    Bwahahahaha.

  19. And at the end of the day, what have The Greens got to show for all their self-congratulatory ‘tactical brilliance’ wrt bringing Industrial Relations and Sunday Penalty Rates into the forefront of the election campaign today?

    Bupkis.

    Or as Matt Doran on ABC24 said just now as he was doing the daily wrap of the election campaign:

    “At the end of the day The Greens are left on their own.”

    Holding the gun they shot themselves in the foot with.

  21. ajm @ #1263 Monday, May 16, 2016 at 5:25 pm

    Just got polled by an actual human being from Galaxy – Griffith electorate Queensland. Vote this election, last election, view of local candidates, likelihood of changing mind, most important issue. Interesting to see if it turns up in the public domain.

    That sounds like private polling for one of the Major parties.

  22. nothing short of greens being snakes in the grass.
    GREENS senator Peter Whish-Wilson believes his party can double its vote by courting small business and has backed a “bigger national discussion” about weekend penalty rates, suggesting they are outdated.

    The winery owner, who is fighting to retain in his own right the Senate spot vacated by former Greens leader Bob Brown, said penalty rates were part of a “white Anglo-Saxon cultural” inheritance no longer relevant for many workers.

    “No one seems to want to take on the issues of industrial relations — Tony Abbott, I was quite surprised in the national debate, put on record that they are not going to go near penalty rates if they are elected,” Senator Whish-Wilson said.

    “Labor has said they are not going to. I think picking apart workers’ rights is a real slippery slope, and there’s been a lot of work that has gone into giving them these rights.

    “But I think we need a bigger discussion nationally about weekends versus weekdays. I think it’s just a white Anglo-Saxon cultural thing that we’ve inherited. Society is different now.

  23. lizzie

    There won’t be, of course, and the whole scenario is built on such a series of ‘ifs’ I don’t really understand why it’s chewing up so much bandwidth.
    But IF neither of the majors can form government in their own right (which you think would be of more concern to the Coalition than Labor…) Shorten has said that he would not do a deal with the Greens to form government which IF the Liberals wouldn’t do a deal with the Greens might mean a second election would be needed.

    The Greens are heavily advertising this. To my way of thinking, that’s like saying “Don’t vote for us, because if we end up with the balance of power, there’s going to be a second election.”

  24. and on it goes.
    He had told small business groups they need to prepare hard data to prove the case that penalty rates are a barrier to weekend trading and increased employment. “If they could go to unions with evidence . . . then that’s probably grounds for discussion with unions. But confronting them head on is just not going to work.”

    He said he believed addressing the concerns of small business was a key to expanding the support base for the party he joined after being disgusted at the major parties’ fast-tracking of the Gunns pulp mill in his Tamar Valley home.

    “I think the Greens have the potential to double their vote nationally by targeting small business; they really are an overlooked sector,” said Senator Whish-Wilson.

    “My wife and I have run two small businesses.

  25. This morning attack on Labor by the Greens just confirmed that this is the game they are playing.

    Dastyari and other Labor party strategists decided a few years ago to “take the kid gloves off when it comes to the Greens”.

    The Greens Party is a separate party with its own policy platform who wants Greens parliamentarians elected.

    The myth the Greens party was a one-issue party is a myth happily spread by the political duopoly and the MSM. It was never and is not “just an environmental party”.

    It’s understandable as more people become aware of Greens policies and vote for the Greens, the hysteria and OTT hyperbole ratchets ups a notch or three before every election.

    Any challenge to the status quo of power flipping from the Coalition to Labor to the Coalition to Labor and on and on, will be fought tooth and nail by the entrenched.

  26. The drum tonight is complete drivel.
    I have discovered that SBS arabic morning TV news is vastly superior to my usual ABC24. I do not understand a single word which is better than understanding the juvenile simplistic clap trap from the ABC.
    I had an agile plan to invent a TV with a built in lie detector. This would require an upgrade to detect stupidity. Now is simply resort to the off button on the remote and back to my large supply of Ebooks.

  28. I’m with Zoomster, I like a lot of the Greens policies but the power play has made me nervous. My first priority is changing the government. There’d be many others like me, some who may live in Grayndler, Melbourne, Higgins etc.

  30. Pegasus,

    It’s understandable as more people become aware of Greens policies and vote for the Greens

    ROFL. 🙂

  31. heaven for bid the GREENS are all over the place re penalty rates.
    but why should one wonder ,just like the LNP saying one thing but meaning something else.
    just proving they can be lying scum like the LNP. we mean what we say but don’t say what we mean.

  33. So the Greens tactic to score media attention is to wedge Labor to the left! Labor should proudly stake the centre ground- but methinks this only works to the rights advantage because the media are generally biased to the right and happy to perpetuate old myths.

  34. Ken McNeill
    Monday, May 16, 2016 at 5:39 pm

    “I had an agile plan to invent a TV with a built in lie detector. This would require an upgrade to detect stupidity.”

    If you perfect the tool to detect stupidity and lies I would like to be your first shareholder. We can test it on PB then take on the world!!!…LOL

  35. I bet you the air in the Prime Ministerial jet is turning blue right now as Malcolm Turnbull makes his way to Darwin. 😀

  36. Lizzie,

    zoomster

    Why would there be a second election? I don’t seem to have received the memo

    It is just Fairfax poring Napalm on the fire of the Labor/ Green conflagration. The article this morning from Fairfax: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/election-2016-why-a-hung-parliament-and-snap-second-election-are-now-very-real-possibilities-20160515-govu55.html was originally titled “1 in 3 chance of having a second election”. I do not know who wrote the headline, but it was very dodgy statistics. The article states:

    Bill Shorten has ruled out any post-election deal with the Greens. Shadow treasurer Chris Bowen says Labor will govern alone or not at all. And Malcolm Turnbull doesn’t want agreements with other parties either.

    Yet the opinion polls are running 50-50, and the remaining crossbenchers look unbeatable. There is a good chance that neither party will win a majority on July 2. Betting agency Sportsbet rates it as at least a one in three chance.

    A 1 in 3 chance of a hung parliament by Sportsbet in no way translates into a 1 in 3 chance of needing a new election.
    My take is that the most likely scenario, in the event of a hung parliament, is that the Governor General will decide who to ask to form government, and it will be tested on the floor of the house, as happened in Tasmania in 2010: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tasmanian_state_election,_2010.
    From the Wikipedia article:

    Attention was then focussed on the positions of the parties. Greens leader Nick McKim declared he was willing to make a deal with either party, whilst Labor leader David Bartlett and Liberal leader Will Hodgman insisted they would stick to promises made before the election not to enter into any deals. Bartlett had also pledged that whoever won the most seats or, in the event of a tie, the most votes would have the right to form a government. Since the Liberals had won the popular vote by a margin of 6,700 votes, both leaders now claimed this meant that Hodgman had the right to form a ministry.

    16

    On 1 April, the Labor caucus unanimously agreed to relinquish power, and Bartlett then advised the Governor, Peter Underwood, that Hodgman should be summoned to form a government.

    17

    Former federal Labor powerbroker Graham Richardson called Bartlett “silly” for not negotiating with the Greens.

    18

    On 7 April the results were formally declared. Under the Constitution Act 1934 Underwood had seven days to commission a Government. Ultimately, after speaking to Bartlett and Hodgman, he recommissioned Bartlett on 9 April. He released detailed reasons for his decision, saying that Bartlett did not have the right to promise power to Hodgman, and that Hodgman was not in a position to form stable government. He regarded as irrelevant the position of the Greens, regarding it as a matter for the Assembly as a whole to test or maintain support for the ministry.

    19

    The Liberals had not held talks with the Greens and Labor had not promised that a Liberal minority government would have a minimum period of support. Hodgman would have thus faced the prospect of being defeated in the legislature almost as soon as he was sworn in. Since longstanding convention in the Westminster system holds that an incumbent premier should have the first chance to form a government after an election, Underwood decided to recommission Bartlett and allow him to demonstrate that he had support on the floor of the Assembly.

    20

    Hodgman accused Bartlett of breaking his promise to hand over power, noting that in a letter to the Governor, Bartlett had contradicted a public statement made on 1 April where he had said he would not move any vote of no confidence against a Liberal government.

    21

    However, Professor Richard Herr of the University of Tasmania believed the Governor’s stance was a correct one, as it served the interests of stable government.

    22

    Constitutional law expert Michael Stokes disagreed, saying too high a bar had been set for the Liberals and Labor had not proven it could deliver stable government in the new Assembly.

    23

    On the day before the decision was finalised, the Greens indicated that as no party had shown a willingness to negotiate a deal with them, they would neither initiate nor support a vote of no confidence against the Labor government until a deal with either party could be arranged.

    24

    On 13 April, to meet the deadline imposed by the Constitution Act 1934, Governor Underwood swore in an interim cabinet, consisting of David Bartlett as Premier, Lara Giddings as Deputy Premier and Attorney-General, and Michael Aird as Treasurer.

    25

    On 19 April 2010, after a week of negotiations, Labor Premier David Bartlett agreed to appoint Greens leader, Nick McKim, as a Minister, along with Greens member for Denison, Cassy O’Connor, as cabinet secretary.

    26

    On 4 May, the Greens nominated Tim Morris for the position of Deputy Speaker—a surprise for Labor who had nominated Brenton Best. With the support of the Liberals, Morris was elected with 15 votes to Best’s 8.

    27

    On 5 May, the first day of sitting for the new parliament, the Liberals moved a motion of no-confidence against the Bartlett government, which was defeated by Labor and the Greens.

    28

    However, in the case of a hung parliament, independents such as Wilkie, Katter and McGowan are more likely to support the coalition, so my best guess is that in the even of a hung parliament, it is the Coalition who will be best able to form a government.

    The Wikipedia article reminds me that Tasmanian Labor did not exactly cover itself in glory during the campaign, to put it mildly.
    First Dog sums is up succinctly as usual:
    http://www.crikey.com.au/2010/03/18/tasmanian-election-update-now-with-added-robots/?wpmp_switcher=mobile

    This cartoon was one of FDOTMs best (although he does a lot of those).

  37. Pegasus

    I don’t want to burst your bubble, but I was wholeheartedly behind the ‘Bob Brown environmental Greens’ (cos I’m a bit of a dreamer). Now they’re trying to position themselves as a political party with many more policies and a lot of tactics on show, I’m not so keen.

  38. The split in the greens seem to be real with Senator Deutsche Bank making his views on penalty rates so obvious.

  42. The Greens don’t know which lie to go for as far as penalty rates. Dirty Dick Di Natale is leading the charge, trying to wedge the Right Wing Coalition Government… not!
    Dirty Dick Di Natale is trying to shaft Shorten. Whish Wilson is trying to shaft Dirty Dick. The Fair Work Commission is waiting for a non-existent Greens submission. But these arrant shameless bastards somehow or other forgot the workers when it was submission time.

  46. “Those figures would, I believe, give the Liberals a smaller primary than Labor.”

    Those figures look weird unfortunately.

  50. Brendan O’Connor @BOConnorMP
    In another partisan move, the Govt appoints 4 more employer reps to FWC, taking the tally to 7 – 0 and removing any sense of balance

    Is this the “independent body” that will determine penalty rates?

    That doesn’t look like they’re going to give an impartial judgement. If they do come down on the employers side (and why wouldn’t they, given they’re all employer reps), that will pretty much destroy all the good work Bill Shorten has done to date.

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