ReachTEL Tasmanian electorates polling

A poll of Tasmania’s electorates finds the Liberals grimly hanging on in the three seats gained from Labor in 2013, and independent Andrew Wilkie going untroubled in Denison.

Today’s Sunday Tasmanian has results from ReachTEL polling of each of the five lower house seats in Tasmania, from a combined sample of 3019. The report says the poll credits the Liberals with 51-49 leads in Bass and Lyons, independent Andrew Wilkie with an increased majority in Denison, Labor member Julie Collins with a lead of 54-46 in Franklin, and Liberal member Brett Whiteley with a primary vote lead of 42.7% to 32.6% in Braddon, suggesting little change on his 2.6% winning two-party margin in 2013. The Jacqui Lambie Network would find “solid support” in the northern electorates, particularly her home base of Braddon, but has just 2.7% support in Denison and 2.5% in Franklin (this being before exclusion of around 7.5% undecided). I will be able to go into greater depth on these results tomorrow, but will be beaten to it by Kevin Bonham, who promises to publish a comprehensive overview at 8.30am.

In other partly reported poll news, Brisbane’s Sunday Mail has a tranche of state results from that Galaxy poll that provided federal results yesterday, but none of the voting intention numbers are provided in the online report. The report does relate that Tim Nicholls’ coup against Lawrence Springborg the Friday before last had 42% approval and 27% disapproval, and that Annastacia Palaszczuk leads Nicholls as preferred premier by 44% to 29%. Much is made of the fact that this isn’t as good for Palaszczuk as the 54-26 she happened to record against Lawrence Springborg in November. There will be voting intention eventually, I promise.

UPDATE: Kevin Bonham details the full results from the ReachTEL poll. The published respondent-allocated results have the Liberals leading 51-49 in Bass (54.0-46.0 at the 2013 election), 53-47 in Braddon (52.6-47.4) and 51-49 in Lyons (51.2-48.8), with Labor ahead 54-46 in Franklin (55.1-44.9). Each of these results is better for Labor than a 2013 election allocation would have been, particularly in Franklin (where Labor’s lead would have been 52.4-47.6) and Lyons (where the Liberals would have led 54.1-45.9). In Denison, Andrew Wilkie records 33.2% of the primary vote, down from 38.1% at the election, with Labor up from 24.8% to 27.3%. However, ReachTEL has published a Wilkie-versus-Liberal two-party result rather than Wilkie-versus-Labor, of 66-34, even though it was Labor who finished second last time, and would do so again on these numbers. The Jacqui Lambie Network’s average across the five seats is 5.3%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,316 comments on “ReachTEL Tasmanian electorates polling”

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  1. marrickville mauler @ #1190 Monday, May 16, 2016 at 4:16 pm

    Jesus TF Christ, log in to check polling discussion and there are Greens pontificating to Labor about industrial relations.
    Get engaged for, oh, 115 years or so , and you might be taken seriously.

    It’s quite astonishing, isn’t it? Next the Greens will be claiming they are the only defence against the LNP bringing back Workchoices!

  2. doyley @ #1183 Monday, May 16, 2016 at 4:04 pm

    Another question for Nicholas and others herd crowing about the greens concern for workers and their penalty rates.
    Why, if the greens are so opposed to any cuts to,penalty rates, did they not lodge a submission to FWA arguing the case for their retention ?
    Labor was the only one of the three parties that actually lodged a submission in support of penalty rates.
    The greens are full of shit.
    Cheers and a great afternoon to all.

    The answer to that is The Greens are Show Ponies.

  3. Head over to the site to see if Morgan’s up, greeted by the predictable sight of Labor partisans squealing like stuck pigs over their leader wedging his own party over penalty rates. It’s as inevitable as the sun rising in the morning and setting in the evening.

    Personally, if I were di Natale, I wouldn’t be pursuing Labor over it. It’s very aggressive politics, and I don’t know how well it’ll go down if non-partisan and Greens-aligned progressive voters prefer the leftist parties to be uniting against the Coalition. It’ll be interesting to see how di Natale’s campaign tactics end up playing out.

  4. This is a poltiical blog and we discuss issues of the day. A big issue of the day is the Greens pathetic attempt to wedge Labor on IR. Yet bludgers here reckon we should not talk about. Why?

    Anyhoo for those not interested. Scroll on by!!

  6. Player One,
    The Greens think they can out argue us by posting their logorrheic claptrap on PB all day. I think they will drive more people away than they will engage. Thoughtful people can see that it is all just a political sham when it comes to The Greens’ concern about anything, really, as they are just political pipsqueaks at the end of the day.

  7. The Greens and their spear carriers on this forum have no idea on this question of penalty rates. Short of a constitutional amendment enshrining penalty rates into the Constitution you cannot permanently protect it. What legislation can be passed in one Parliament can be amende or abolished in another. Shorten and Labor have said, quite sensibly, that they will respect the decision by the Fair Work Commission given that this is the the body charged with determining Awards and Agreements. What they have done is reaffirm the party’s commitment to penalty rates. They have also said that if they win government they would seek to make a submission to the FWC in support of penalty rates as the government of the day as have governments in the past in National Wage Cases/Minimum Wage Cases since time immemorial. The Greens are just grandstanding. It looks good, makes them feel like they are doing something but the effect is nothing.

  8. Peg
    The postal application forms are usually sent out by sitting MPs, which explains why you never received one from the Greens in Chisholm but people in the seat of Melbourne do get them.

  9. Why, if the greens are so opposed to any cuts to,penalty rates, did they not lodge a submission to FWA arguing the case for their retention ?

    Presumably because the FWA wasn’t proposing to cut them… the government was.

  10. El Guapo

    Crank: “Private Education is expensive and many parents are right on the limit (and often beyond) of their ability to pay.”

    That’s because taxpayers are subsidising schools that don’t need funding and ignoring schools that do. Private or public. Who has room to fund literacy when we need another swimming pool.

    Private school education in Australia (in the Independent Schools sub-sector) has become a sort of modified Veblen good (or service, rather) with higher weight being put specifically on “other people” not being able to afford it rather than just having value due to higher price.

  11. If Labor’s so okay with leaving it up to the FWC, then sending them submissions is grandstanding as well.

  12. potss @ 1203,

    Head over to the site to see if Morgan’s up, greeted by the predictable sight of Labor partisans squealing like stuck pigs over their leader wedging his own party over penalty rates. It’s as inevitable as the sun rising in the morning and setting in the evening.

    Not as inevitable as your predictable attempt at political disdain.

  13. Nicholas

    My point exactly. The business lobby will not simply accept the “independent Umpire” and it’s decision if that decision is to keep penalty rates unchanged. They have made it extremely clear that penalty rates are the next working condition that has to go in the name of “flexibility”, and they will not stop until it happens. That is why legislation protecting penalty rates is the only answer. The fact that some have no argument and just name calling and insults suggests to me that deep down they actually do get it.

    What Labor wants here is to be in a position where if the “independent umpire” makes a ruling protecting penalty rates, they can claim to have stood up for them and influenced the decision. However, if the ruling winds back penalty rates, Labor can say they don’t like it, while giving a nod to business and waving it through. That just will not cut it for those who rely on penalty rates. The question for Labor is; are they on the side of those who rely on penalty rates, or those who want to wind them back and eventually get rid of them. This should not be a difficult question for Labor, but they are certainly turning it in to one.

  15. Neil Mitchell has managed to extract a gotcha on penalty rates – after great effort this morning. Until today, I thought it was all pretty clear.

    So Mark Kenny has written it up in a ‘Labor can’t win on this’ manner.

    Labor set up the FWC so can hardly propose to flatly disrespect it. It is also relevant that Labor made a submission to the wage case in question, arguing forcefully for the retention of the Sunday rate in the interests of countless Sunday employees who rely on the extra bread from waiting tables to put bread on their own tables.
    …
    Labor set up the FWC so can hardly propose to flatly disrespect it. It is also relevant that Labor made a submission to the wage case in question, arguing forcefully for the retention of the Sunday rate in the interests of countless Sunday employees who rely on the extra bread from waiting tables to put bread on their own tables.
    …
    For the Greens party, nipping at Labor’s left flank, this is manna from heaven. Which is why it has promised to legislate to retain higher Sunday pay.

    For Shorten, that’s a penalty rate to be paid in votes.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/election-2016-labor-pays-penalty-for-dodgy-rate-position-20160516-gow0pw.html

  16. How the feck do the greens expect to legislate anything? They will have fewer Senators and no say in the Reps.

  18. Guy from CMC Capital Markets on ABC24 just said that Cuts to Pathology Service payments have only been delayed for one year.

    So, should the Coalition be re-elected, they will be back in the Budget of 2017.

  19. Not as inevitable as your predictable attempt at political disdain.

    It is, actually, because all my disdain results from Labor partisans like yourself having a good whine in the first place.

  20. Preparing for war should not be regarded as a job-creation scheme. The consequences of building massive weapons systems that could only conceivably be used in a major war go far beyond the jobs they create. They undermine peace in our region as nations compete for bigger and more costly weapons systems. It is in no one’s interest to have a regional arms race.

    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/preparing-for-war-isnt-a-suitable-economic-boost-20160512-gou0yz.html

  21. Thanks for the heads up, William.

    Time to leave before I get sucked into the twilight zone of the Labor partisans.

  22. Nicholas

    Labor is promising to lay down its arms if the “independent umpire” cuts penalty rates.

    The Greens are threatening to shoot the independent umpire if he gives a decision they don’t like.

    That is the sort of behavior expected from Argentinian footballers and Stalinists, and has no place in Australia.

  23. Just been Galaxy-polled here in Griffith. I gave all the right answers.
    Polling continues tomorrow night, and results in news thereafter.

  24. Oh look, another Green fanboi has turned up to argue the day’s Green Talking Points about Sunday Penalty Rates.

    Too obvious Matt31, you sound just like all the others.

  26. president of the solipsist society @ #1219 Monday, May 16, 2016 at 4:39 pm

    Not as inevitable as your predictable attempt at political disdain.
    It is, actually, because all my disdain results from Labor partisans like yourself having a good whine in the first place.

    Sorry if predictable Green Talking Points irritate me.

  27. President Of The Solipsist Society
    “If Labor’s so okay with leaving it up to the FWC, then sending them submissions is grandstanding as well.”
    You clearly have no understanding of how the IR system works. The FWC is a judicial body and interested and affected parties make submissions to it. Labor already has done that but if it wins government then it would be making the submission with the gravitas of being the government.

  28. If Manus/Nauru are concentration camps, then so are the camps run throughout the world by the UNHCR (which we are regularly told by posters here are so bad they justify people risking their lives in leaky boats rather than going to them).

    As for the ‘what about the children’ angle, my understanding is that the only children still in Manus/Nauru are there because their parents want them there. If we’re going to start taking children away from their parents for their own good, then we’re heading into Stolen Generation territory.

  29. Rather than an independant umpire, we should just add all of these issues that either we can’t talk about, we can’t change, we can’t agree on or we can’t pretend to support and throw them all onto a list of questions that could be asked in a single referendum? Instead of a plebiscite over something most of us agree on and don’t care about like SSM, we could actually get some real answers and indeed action on many things that we do care about. It would also be great to put an end to all of this wedge politics.

    On second thought….Scrap that….Then there’d be nothing to discuss on PB!

  30. El Guapo
    Monday, May 16, 2016 at 2:39 pm
    …says, “So, why is The Australian devoting enormous space to Di Natale’s threat to force a coalition on Labor?”
    Because the ALP are The Australian’s enemy.”
    Bwhahahaha. Because Di Natale and Milne etc, etc, etc, have been chatting up the inevitable Greens’Labor Coalition should Labor be in a minority situation.
    Keane belled the Greens cat today.
    This is deliberate. It is destructive of Labor. It is helpful to Turnbull.
    Dirty Dick Di Natale: ‘Gimme the job or I will wreck the joint.’

  31. Unions have rounded on Labor leader Bill Shorten over penalty rates, demanding they be protected by “any means necessary” and backing the Greens’ call to enshrine overtime rates in law.

    As Mr Shorten effectively conceded on Monday that penalty rates could be cut under a future Labor government – despite the ALP promising to protect weekend penalty rates during the federal election – the Australian
    Manufacturing Workers Union and the Electrical Trades Union told Fairfax Media they backed a Greens proposal to protect penalty rates with legislation.

    Further underscoring the politically fraught issue of penalty rates, Fairfax Media also contacted the Australian Workers Union – which Mr Shorten used to lead – the Shop Assistant’s union, the Community and Public Sector Union, the Construction, Forestry, Mining and Energy union, the Rail, Tram and Bus union, the Transport Workers Union, the National Union of Workers and the Maritime Workers union for comment over penalty rates.

    None of these eight unions would comment on the issue.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-unions-turn-on-shorten-as-labor-leader-concedes-he-cant-guarantee-penalty-rates-wont-be-cut-under-alp-20160516-gow7p0.html#ixzz48nbv0nEr
    Follow us: @theage on Twitter | theageAustralia on Facebook

  32. z

    The postal application forms are usually sent out by sitting MPs, which explains why you never received one from the Greens in Chisholm but people in the seat of Melbourne do get them.

    Thank you, that makes sense.

  36. POSS

    Personally, if I were di Natale, I wouldn’t be pursuing Labor over it. It’s very aggressive politics, and I don’t know how well it’ll go down if non-partisan and Greens-aligned progressive voters prefer the leftist parties to be uniting against the Coalition. It’ll be interesting to see how di Natale’s campaign tactics end up playing out.

    I have reached that view as well.

    We will find out the consequences after polling day!

  38. During pre poll htv handing out it is unusual for the greens in my electorate to have volunteers. So it has been past practice for the ALP to help and keep a pile of Greens htv cards if anyone asks.

    This election they will be going in the garbage bin.

  39. It is inarguable, and I speak from personal experience, that retail and hospitality workers depend on penalty rates. Yes it’s true that Sundays are no longer a religious day for the vast bulk of people, but it is also true that people need rest and recreation, as well as family time, and the weekend is that designated time for the week. It is eminently reasonable for people to be compensated for giving up that time – and most of the time employees don’t have a choice in whether they work on the weekend or not. I could probably accept an equalising of Saturday and Sunday penalty rates, but NOT an actual cut in income.

    As a low-paid worker, I do wish Labor would be more categorical about penalty rates, but respect that Labor is trying to strike a reasoned position that respects the legislation and the principle of independent arbitration – a task being made impossible by the media and the Greens, with their complete lack of proportionality.

    Furthermore, as Doyley pointed out, the Greens failed to make a submission to the Fair Work Commission, which was the only actual way to make a difference to this outcome. This demonstrates yet again that the Greens are only interested in grandstanding and bashing Labor, not actual REAL governance.

    I don’t really trust the Fair Work Commission, but as Labor’s submission pointed out, they are required by the Fair Work Act to ensure that just social outcomes are met. Given wages are not keeping up with economic growth, and the perilous and casualised nature of retail and hospitality work, there is no way that cutting penalty rates can be a just outcome.

    Furthermore, wages are a cost. Investment, including in hiring people, is driven overwhelmingly by economic conditions. No one has yet sufficiently shown evidence that a reduction in penalty rates will boost economic confidence and therefore spending. I do not understand how Business and the Liberal Party can claim that cutting wages for some of the lowest paid people in the country will somehow magically create new jobs and boost economic growth – it flies in the face of commonsense. And yet they say, “we promise if you cut penalty rates, we might, maybe, hire more people.” Besides, the Labor Party said it best in their submission:

    Finally, there have been some arguments that penalty rates should be reduced because there are people, particularly university students, who would be willing to work for less money. As we have seen with the widespread exploitation of workers at 7-eleven, there will always be someone desperate or vulnerable enough to work for less. That should not ever be an argument accepted in Australia that wages should be reduced because people are prepared to work for less. In fact if that argument were acceptable, then equal pay cases for women and indigenous people would never have succeeded.

    Improving business profitability is not a morally acceptable reason for cutting penalty rates. People who set up businesses have complete access to the awards they are expected to pay. They are not secret or hidden. Any business owner who fails to take into account the cost of wages deserves to go broke – not have their failure excused on the grounds that wages are too high, nor should they be bailed out by a government and party determined to destroy Australia social safety net.

    I invite anybody who doesn’t think the Labor Party champions penalty rates to go and read Labor’s submission to the Fair Work Commission:

    https://www.fwc.gov.au/documents/sites/awardsmodernfouryr/AM2014305-sub-FOS-210316.pdf

  40. Though as a unionist, I am on the Greens side of the penalty rates issue.

    This election I have decided to not participate in any ACTU / Unions Australia campaigns (have been involved in the anti-TPP campaign) and concentrate solely on Greens campaign.

  41. So the Greens want to “enshrine overtime rates in law” – how do they do that exactly? – the same way the so-called carbon tax was enshrined in law? What amateurs.

  42. Pegasus
    Monday, May 16, 2016 at 5:03 pm

    Though as a unionist, I am on the Greens side of the penalty rates issue.

    This election I have decided to not participate in any ACTU / Unions Australia campaigns (have been involved in the anti-TPP campaign) and concentrate solely on Greens campaign.

    Figures. Class traitor.

  45. pegasus @ #1240 Monday, May 16, 2016 at 5:03 pm

    Though as a unionist, I am on the Greens side of the penalty rates issue.
    This election I have decided to not participate in any ACTU / Unions Australia campaigns (have been involved in the anti-TPP campaign) and concentrate solely on Greens campaign.

    Yup…once a grouper, always a grouper.

  46. I heard Cormann this afternoon emphasising the “Greens in bed with Labor” theme. Those weren’t his words, but IMO his tone is offensive.

  47. POSS,

    Personally, if I were di Natale, I wouldn’t be pursuing Labor over it. It’s very aggressive politics, and I don’t know how well it’ll go down if non-partisan and Greens-aligned progressive voters prefer the leftist parties to be uniting against the Coalition. It’ll be interesting to see how di Natale’s campaign tactics end up playing out.

    I am guessing this is part of a coordinated strategy, but I think it is dangerous on the part of the Greens, who reply for funding on Labor types who 1 Green 2 Labor to give Labor a push to the left. Such people definitely want a Labor government.

    The analysis will be done after the election, and until then I cannot guess how it will play out. I presume the Greens have focus groups telling them that it will play well with the voters they are trying to woo.

  48. Brendan O’Connor
    @BOConnorMP
    “Shorten Labor made a submission to defend penalty rates before the Fair Work Commission but Greens did nothing #defendpenaltyrates” #auspol

  49. I note that there was a bit of a view that the use of the term ‘concentration camp’ in the context of Nauru and Manus was an insult to the Shoah and the Holocaust.
    I beg to differ.
    Nauru and Manus fit all the elements for the correct definition of a concentration camp. This reality does not belittle the Holocaust or of the role of German concentration camps in the Holocaust.
    The first mass victims of concentration camps were the 22,000 Boer women and children who were pretty well neglected to death in British concentration camps in South Africa.
    The British were not without a certain sense of humour. They charged Boer women for the wood to build coffins for their infants.

  50. Peter Whish-Wilson (isn’t he a Green?) is on record as saying penalty rates are “outdated”..

    ..doesn’t sound very supportive, but..

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