The latest result for Essential Research is largely unchanged on last week, with the Coalition steady on 42% of the primary vote, Labor steady on 38% and the Greens down one to 9%. One change is that the pollster has dumped Palmer United from its survey and replaced it with the Nick Xenophon Team, which opens it account on 3%. The poll also features Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which find Malcolm Turnbull up one on approval to 40% and up three on disapproval to 42%, Bill Shorten up four on approval to 34% and down one on disapproval to 43%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing from 44-22 to 43-28. There is also a suite of questions on social class, something 81% agreed existed in Australia, with only 8% saying otherwise. Only 2% of respondents identified as upper class, yet 53% thought the Liberal Party mainly served that party’s interests. Forty-eight per cent of respondents identified as middle class, which 15% thought mainly served by Liberal and 17% by Labor, while 34% identified as working class, which 39% thought mainly represented by Labor and 4% by Liberal. The poll also found 48% approval of the budget’s internships scheme for the young unemployed, and 52% rating the election campaign too long versus 5% for too short and 32% for about right.
Turnbull and Shortens dissaproval are pretty much the same. Interesting.
And Turnbull hasnt even had to front a RC or anything.
William
Have we any better information on state based polling. This seems crucial this election, with what seems like large state differences.
William…dies Essential have a good record at measuring the G PV?
Mm
What kind of soul thinks the election campaign is too short?
Greens collaboration with the Coalition continues with their penalty rates campaign..
Truffles cynically politicised the serious issue of road safety in the trucking industry by abolishing the independent Road Safety Remuneration Tribunal..
Di natale is cynically politicising the serious issue of penalty rates by attacking the independent Fair Work Commission..
Di Natale’s desire for widespread industrial & social unrest is obvious ..and aligns with the views of his Trotskyist candidate in Grayndler..
https://delimiter.com.au/2016/05/16/fantasy-fibre-coalition-explicitly-rejects-nbn-fttdp-model/
Be interesting to see what the ALP now come out with as policy on NBN. Suspect this is something they have ready to roll, and now that the Coalition have committed (well for a 24 hour time period at least) they can return fire any time its convenient.
William
What is the biggest swing that has happened between elections (exluding 1975)?
The Essential and Morgan polls seem very different with regards to the minor parties.
markjs @ #5 Tuesday, May 17, 2016 at 1:56 pm
Zing!!!
IMACCA – Remember when many here were predicting late last year that unchained Mal would take the NBN back to fibre. Didn’t happen.
At the heart of all this is a fundamental belief among the libs that a govt project like the NBN is a total waste of money. So they want to strangle it as cheaply as possible.
I understand that Malcolm is going to set up campaign HQ in Darwin and spend the rest of the election cruising around the harbour in a patrol boat.
I think the country at large has pretty much written off the idea of an “unchained Mal”.
Been out all morning and was going to make a comment, but every comment I wanted to make has been made.
Excellent bunch of commentators, youse Bludgers are.
Turnbull can’t fight this election on his own. No way. He’ll crash and burn short of the runway.
The polling hiatus is only in 2PP. Personal ratings continue to go south for Turnbull. And in a 1-man party, that’s an important indicator of polling developments to come. I expect this to be a brief pause, than more 2PP degradation for the Liberals.
The Libs have thrown everything at this campaign – boats, terror, carbon, penalty rates, unions, the Budget – and still made no headway. All they ever seem to talk about is Labor-Labor-Bill-Shorten-Labor-Labor. It’s free publicity for Labor. Shows they are scared and a bit (maybe a lot) panicky.
Turnbull won’t be able to keep up the pace, not with his dud candidates and his dud ministers.
This will be another of his investments – this time a political investment – that “sadly did not make any money”, like Turnbull said about the Siberian gold mine. You move on in those circumstances and lick your wounds, resign your directorships and sail to the next Caribbean island paradise to set up another company. There are too many Cartier watches to buy for Lucy, too many horse studs to run, too many beautiful places overseas for Malcolm to waste time with the second rate bunch of in-fighters and slogan utterers he’s been saddled with.
He’s going against everything he once said he believed in. How disappointing it must be for him to see that he just can’t bring his party with him, even on the basics like Carbon and SSM. And, if he wins it’ll be by a greatly reduced margin. No landslides for Malcolm in 2016. That will just make things worse, and harder to manage.
As soon as Turnbull realizes this deep down in his heart of hearts, we’ll see the light of enthusiasm go out in his eyes. No more exciting times for Malcolm after that. When a deal’s going to go wrong, it’s always best to cut your losses sooner rather than later. Be alert for a Turnbull tantrum. That will be the first sign.
Last election, Essential came in at 10% for the Greens and Morgan at 10.5%, and their actual vote was 8.5%. It was a pretty similar story in 2010. So this big difference in opinion between the two is kind of a new thing.
DTT, the two biggest swings after the war were 7.1% in 1969 and 7.4% in 1975. 1943 would have been around that area as well.
Daretotread @ 1:58pm
The AEC provides 2PP results from 1949 onwards. Since then the biggest swings were:
* 1975, 7.4% to Coalition
* 1969, 7.1% to Labor
* 2007, 5.4% to Labor
* 1996, 5.1% to Coalition
Flock!
The NBN contractors have moved the node on our street. It was to be right outside my house, where the pillar was. I have a brand new cable going to that pillar. Bother. Now its halfway up the street outside the most expensive mansion on the block. I smell rats.
Caught another Malcolm presser where he looks like Scott Nofriends (as distinguished from Scott Morrison..)
God, he was awful. There were some potentially powerful messages in the waffle, but every time he came near one, he qualified it to death. A simple sentence appears to be beyond him.
I pity the journos trying to get a 30 second grab out of all the straw.
The banner that accompanies Turnbull at media events says:
THE TURNBULL COALITION TEAM – THE PLAN FOR A STRONG NEW ECONOMY
(for photo see http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/05/09/malcolm-turnbulls-new-logo-is-missing-one-important-thing/ )
Presumably this banner (which omits reference to “Liberal”) was conceived when Turnbull’s approval rating was significantly higher than now and he was seen as a huge electoral plus for the Liberals. On current trends, the wording of the banner is likely to become a negative for the party. It will be interesting to see if the wording on the banner changes some time during the campaign.
Two points;
I just don’t swallow comparisons with this election and the UK election. As has rightly been mentioned here, poling in the UK who actually shows up on the day is an issue that polls have to try to contend with. No such issue here due to compulsory voting. So the likelihood of the polls pretty much all completely missing the result here is a lot less than the UK.
On the Greens pv; for what it’s worth, I have thought for some time that Ipsos and Morgan probably have it too high, and Essential too low. I personally think Newspoll have it about right at around 11 percent.
Thanks William
So relaistically 7.4% is an absolute upper limit to the expected swing. Which essentially means that a swing of around 5% ranbging from 3-7% in different states is sort of our rational benchmark, whith 3.5-6.5% being the sort of sane expectation
I expect we will continue to see a narrowing in the gap between Turnbull and Shorten will continue to narrowly, and probably at a faster pace close to the election itself. We saw this in 2013; Rudd’s PPM lead over Abbott really plunged from memory in the last 2-3 weeks of the campaign.
Hmm, quite the maths error in Essential.
Re: social classes still existing in Australia, Essential takes the weighted average of 86, 81, 94 and 88 to be equal to 81.
This seems highly unlikely, one would assume the weighted average would be higher than the minimum. Depending on the weightings of these 4 numbers, this could be correct within rounding. But is it? Lets assume the numbers are actually 81.499 is the weighted average of 85.5, 80.5, 93.5 and 87.5, which is a ‘best case scenario’ for Essential’s calculator, rounding all individual numbers down and the total up.
The best case for Essential being correct is also that Liberal and Labor are being rounded down and Greens and others are rounded up, as this will minimise the calculated total support for the statement.
The weightings make this 0.42499*80.5 + 0.38499 * 85.5 + 0.085 * 93.5 + 0.105 * 87.5 = 34.21 + 32.92 + 7.27 + 9.19 = 83.59 = 84%.
So they definitely are wrong somewhere. Rounding cannot explain this discrepency.
Possible errors are:
* The total belief in social class in Australia
* The breakdown by party support
* The 1st preferences by party.
@ William – do you have any input? Have I missed something obvious?
I think the upper limit on a potential swing is quite a bit higher now than it was in 1975. Not that I’m expecting anything like it on this particular occasion.
BB
Have you caught up with Lenore Taylor’s latest musings?
Good on Duncan Storrer for speaking out:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-17/duncan-storrar-thanks-australia-for-support-after-qanda/7420918
Based on that list of swings it seems to me that the mood of the electorate is not 1975.
It does not seem quite 1996 either when there was real hostility to Keating. Nor is their the enthusiasm of Rudd in 2007.
So I am predicting a 4% swing to Labor on average .
What do others (sane only) think/feel. The mood is definitely positive here in Qld but probably 4.5% positive not 5.5%.
William
Fair point. The electorate is more volatile. Realistically what do you feel is the upper boundary of a swing in WA. 7% seems was optimistic but 5.5 or 6% perhaps?
[Not that I’m expecting anything like it on this particular occasion.]
Morgan has it at 6%. If after another 6 weeks of pass the parcel the electorate realise there is no fluffy toy or chocolates in the middle of Turnbulls wrapping…. 7%? Stranger things happen.
Election campaign length also doesn’t make sense. Using the same calc method as above leads to a minimum of 53.78% support total assuming the breakdown by party and the 1st preferences listed are correct, assuming the rounding works out in the ost favorable way possible, meaning it can’t possibly be as low as 52% as presented in the total.
Rules that determine pay and conditions are political, whether you are a Kool-Aid guzzling Labor supporter or a human being.
Wait, I am an idiot. The questions that change week to week are using the 1st preference data from this week only, not the 2 week average.
So, this means we can conclude from the election length, that the Greens are stronger this week than the previous week, because they are the only party that can drive the weighted average below 54%
But then that makes it even harder to understand the social classes question – if the Greens are stronger this week then last, that should push up the weighted average belief that social classes exist even further.
I am confused.
Simon
It seems to me for a really big swing you need a “hate” or “anger” factor. Turnbull is a disappointment, but not hated I think Abbott was hated and people thought him nuts. I could well believe an 8% swing, but turnbull I think 4-5% more realistic.
1000 people rescued of Italy, again. Thanks to LNP.
KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
Tuesday, May 17, 2016 at 2:04 pm
NBN type infrastructure is something the private sector should be doing when the commercial demand is there to support it – not the government. The ALP recognized this by setting it up to be sold – but has now created a monopoly which is a massive fail for the future development into the future.
NT farmers label backpacker tax delay ‘a stunt’ to get through election
By Katherine Gregory
Updated 20 minutes ago
Delaying the introduction of the so-called backpacker tax by six months is a “gimmick” to get through the electoral cycle, according to farmers in the Northern Territory.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-17/nt-farmers-call-backpacker-tax-delay-a-stunt/7421412
Zoidy – if the EU got some ovaries about them and implemented turnbacks like we have then they wouldn’t be picking up thousands and having thousands drown in the Med.
“Unchained Malody” – to be sung while looking admiringly in a full length mirror.
CC
Labors NBN type infrastructure is “LIGHT SPEED” can’t get better than THAT!.
Compact Crank
Tuesday, May 17, 2016 at 3:04 pm
The turnbacks should have been started in the 1500 for the americas and the 1800’s for australia.
Then the concept of the RWNJ wouldnt exist in this country
@ CC – how so? – boat turnbacks is all about taking people who need help, and making them your neighbours’ problem and not yours – sweeping the deaths at sea under the rug and out of sight. Europe is too big, and the scale of the humanitarian crisis is so overwhelming, that boat turnbacks wouldn’t ‘work’ for them.
CC
They would need bigger boats!.
daretotread @ #26 Tuesday, May 17, 2016 at 2:39 pm
Why are you so desperate to dampen down expectations?
The past is not necessarily any guide to the present or future in such matters. Circumstances change.
“NBN type infrastructure is something the private sector should be doing ”
There is no infrastructure that has been created in this country by private enterprise unless they have been granted a monopoly and or heavy govt subsidies.
Australian corporate management is completely risk averse gutless and lacking in vision. Not to mention overpaid .
I don’t have the time to do the stats, but I imagine the general swing numbers mask two underlying strains…a tendency to high volatility in some areas and corresponding very low volatility in others. There are many LNP seats, for example, where the results seem almost set in stone. To the extent that volatility in these seats is dampened, it must be accentuated in others.
William
Regarding the polls that distinguish between the preferences from the previous election and those nominated by the people being polled, would it be true to say that:
1. During the Abbott era the nominated preferences for Labor were much higher than those based on the previous election.
2. When Turnbull took over, this situation was reversed for a while and the nominated preferences for the LNP were considerably higher than those based on the previous election.
3. As the gloss has come of Turnbull we have returned to a situation where the nominated preferences for Labor are again higher than those based the previous election (albeit not as much as during the Abbott years).
If this theory holds any water (it is only a perception I have based on limited casual observations) does it have the potential to make any difference to the outcome on July 2?
@cranky NBN is not aomething that should be done privatly. It takes to long, big 4 has monoply, see USA, UK, NZ (prior to gov sponsored network).
“Unchained Malody” or Untreated Malady.
corporate_misfit
Tuesday, May 17, 2016 at 3:21 pm
I’m always puzzled why people who sprout that bullshit are still in Australia.
Why are you?
That’s right CC, they would just drown elsewhere or die by some other cause somewhere else. Out of sight, out of mind.
God I truly wish that there was some higher power that applied whatever one wished upon others to that person instead.
Dont blame EU for our lack of involvement, cranky.
Cranky always look over there for everyone elses problems and solutions.