The latest result for Essential Research is largely unchanged on last week, with the Coalition steady on 42% of the primary vote, Labor steady on 38% and the Greens down one to 9%. One change is that the pollster has dumped Palmer United from its survey and replaced it with the Nick Xenophon Team, which opens it account on 3%. The poll also features Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which find Malcolm Turnbull up one on approval to 40% and up three on disapproval to 42%, Bill Shorten up four on approval to 34% and down one on disapproval to 43%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing from 44-22 to 43-28. There is also a suite of questions on social class, something 81% agreed existed in Australia, with only 8% saying otherwise. Only 2% of respondents identified as upper class, yet 53% thought the Liberal Party mainly served that party’s interests. Forty-eight per cent of respondents identified as middle class, which 15% thought mainly served by Liberal and 17% by Labor, while 34% identified as working class, which 39% thought mainly represented by Labor and 4% by Liberal. The poll also found 48% approval of the budget’s internships scheme for the young unemployed, and 52% rating the election campaign too long versus 5% for too short and 32% for about right.
Compact Crank
Tuesday, May 17, 2016 at 3:31 pm
corporate_misfit
Tuesday, May 17, 2016 at 3:21 pm
I’m always puzzled why people who sprout that bullshit are still in Australia.
Why are you?…same reason as you……to take advantage of the opportunities.
CC – I assume you also believe that all roads should be privately built and privately owned and we should have to pay a new road owner every time we turn a corner. I agree with you. That will promote competition. What we’ve got now with free access to all roads is socialism of the worst kind. Any solutions?
Anyone care to guess how many times Malcolm will visit Darwin this election? Will it look a big ridiculous if he goes again? Can he go three or four times?
1934pc
Tuesday, May 17, 2016 at 3:21 pm
At +$5,000 per household it’s significantly overspec.
I’d rather the $5,000 be given to me and I could spend it how I saw fit.
Strange that given the NBN is so brilliant that the take up rates are so poor. Not one retail client for the highest package. Not one.
Something that is nation-wide cannot be done by private interests because of the short term profit motive of those interests.
Sorry CC but I am a retail client who has the top package so that blows your bullshit out of the water.
Cranky it does not cost $5,000 to connect, that was a lie started by Turnbull himself.
“On the Greens pv; for what it’s worth, I have thought for some time that Ipsos and Morgan probably have it too high, and Essential too low. I personally think Newspoll have it about right at around 11 percent.”
Greens votes in last three elections:
2007: 7.79%
2010: 11.76%
2013: 8.65%
If they were at 11% they are going to be closing in on their all time high. In the 2010 election Greens vote rose from disillusioned Labor voters for dumping Kevin Rudd. In 2013 it slumped because some believe that Palmer United Party cut into their anti-major parties vote. It’s hard to say, but you could be right. But if Labor campaigns well and momentum goes with them it could be problematic for the Greens. Because alot of progressive voters will jump on the bandwagon and vote for Labor as did happen in Kevin Rudds landslide in 2007. Yes the Greens vote did rise in 2007 by .6%, but that vote was largely sustained because of the demise of the Democrats.
zoidlord
Tuesday, May 17, 2016 at 3:30 pm
Wrong. Just like Mobile phone networks in Australia are private so can fibre networks be private. There’s plenty of global examples of private networks.
CC
Stop telling lies, it’s not that cost, typical Lieberal CRAP.
corporate_misfit
Tuesday, May 17, 2016 at 3:33 pm
But according to you Europeans should never have settled in Australia and it should have remained the Stone Age Utopia it was, unmolested by civilization or technology. Don’t you feel any guilt being here on their land?
I have full FTTP. We work from home. It costs 30% less than my old internet and I have the top possible retail package. I get very good speeds. Our upload speed is the top possible which saves us $100s in lost productivity (that we experienced before). Don’t download much but we’re not big gamers or movie watchers.
My ‘senior developer’ son comes over to get speed if he needs it for his work because of the dicky way Malcolm’s rollout has left patches all over the place where they won’t be getting it for years yet.
K17
Why stop at roads. Lets privatise the police force. If your car is stolen you pay for a private detective to find it. You also hire your own security guards when you go out (sort of like feudal times).
We can return to the private feudal mode for defence too. You provide goods and services to your lord in return for him building a big castle and hiring some knights.
No public tranport at all – we get together to build our private roads.
No public education – you pays for what you gets. If an employer wants someone to work for them they will have to select from the 20% of the population who can read or write. Might push wages up a bit. This is what Sydney was like in 1830.
KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
Tuesday, May 17, 2016 at 3:34 pm
No. Nor do I expect a six lane freeway as my local road and there is a roll for privately owned Tollways. I don’t agree that the two things are analogous and therefore your analogy is very weak.
CC you forget Telstra was govt owned and its network was built by govt. Telephony has been pretty sucky since it was sold of to private interests.
compact crank @ #59 Tuesday, May 17, 2016 at 3:43 pm
That proposal is idiotic as was so well demonstrated by the cable TV roll-out where so much wasteful duplication occurred.
Actually, it would be better if the mobile phone network was a publicly owned monopoly at the wholesale level, just like the NBN model. We would all get better coverage and less black spots.
It’s also worth asking what we mean by “swing”. A move from 52/48 to 48/52 is called a 4% swing. But only a net 2% of the vote shifted. Then again, it also means that 2/52 of voters shifted their support from the first to the second party.
The swing against the Liberals at the moment in many parts of WA is probably from 57/43 to 47/53…or 10%. In other words, 10/57, (17.5%) or about one-in-six past-Liberal voters are susceptible to changing their behaviour just now. Since it is these voters that comprise any “swing”, it is worth knowing who they are, where they are, and why they move. It’s possible the swings will be even bigger at the State election, where as many as one-in-five or even one-in-four past Liberal voters will be tempted to defect to Labor.
This is a far more useful way to look at voter behaviour than the very broad-spectrum generalised 2PP swing.
Murphy has fact-checked Turnbull’s presser this morning. Turnbull doesn’t come out looking too ‘facty’
David
it seems to me that in Australia today we have the following rough voting break down
30% pretty rock solid ALP, but willing to occasionally beat them up as in WA Senate.
7% pretty rock solid Greens vote. They are ideological greens
40% pretty rock solid LNP/National
8% populist voters – they will swing to whoever is the flavour of the month – Green, Pup NXT
5% right wing minors FFP, etc
10% swingers, who mostly swing to the ALP or liberals but migh occassionally go green or populist
jenauthor
Tuesday, May 17, 2016 at 3:39 pm
Sorry CC but I am a retail client who has the top package so that blows your bullshit out of the water.
Strange the NBN don’t know about you:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/federal-election-2016/federal-election-2016-no-paying-customers-for-topspeed-nbn/news-story/4b4413b0cb11518da0f825b494bf1daf
CC
The NBN core infrastructure i.e. the backbone fibre network, will always be a natural monopoly just like the electricity grid, unless you are advocating duplicating it.
Natural monopolies should never be privatised, unless you think it is OK for lareg companies to screw the consumer. Electricity price increases in Australia are largely due to increases in network costs, following their privatisation, rather than increases in generation costs or the carbon tax. Generation is competitive, whereas distribution is not.
Other factors are the massive benefits to society from having top line communications – benefits which are often “outside the business model” of the NBN, and the need to service remote areas which are not economic for private companies. If they were serviced by private companies, all they would get would be satellite internet, which is OK for moving data, but pretty much useless for interactive communications.
In short, I don’t want to be screwed by a bunch of spivs in delivery of key monopoly services.
Labor should get over their preoccupation with flogging off the NBN.
This:
http://www.crikey.com.au/2005/09/09/malcolmturnbullmanydifferentideasorgau/
Crank
Another comment was moderated out of existence, so I will try to be more polite…
It seems rather rude to suggest there was not civilisation in Australia before white men arrived.
Briefly
You are nuts. WA might be pretty hostile to the Libs just now, but it would be unprecedented to have a 10% swing. how about being extremely happy with a 6% swing.
Ahh, CC, The above story is in the Australian. Enough said.
I can guarantee we get the top retail package available.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/in-depth/national-broadband-network/less-than-25pc-takeup-for-fastest-nbn-plans/news-story/7617bf61471cd65fb8fe43d3e30f500e
Hmmmmmm….Strange statement to make that. Or it would be if it wasn’t CC is suppose.
Briefly,
I see you are upsetting a few of the regular ratbags today.
Carry on!
bemused
The answer to your question is about 90% because Briefly has bats in his belfry. The other 10% is just trying for logical analysis and predictions.
I’m not liking this ignorant man..
Glenn Lazarus @SenatorLazarus 4h4 hours ago
“Why are asylum seekers on Manus Island being treated like kings and being given free cigarettes and other perks..”
Inquiry into Australian Defence Force abuse will hear survivors recount harrowing tales
THE Australian Defence Force was supposed to protect its young recruits. Instead, senior officers did the unthinkable.
From the 1960s all the way through to the early 2000s, it’s believed ADF officers preyed on cadets. Victims claim they were told being bullied, bastardised and raped was part of being toughened up for service.
The hard lessons have stayed with victims for decades while those responsible have been protected from scrutiny. It appears that is finally about to change.
The Royal Commission into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse announced on Monday it would hold a hearing next month.
More than 140 pages long, the report — based on testimony from 200 complainants — found abuse was far more widespread than previously thought and that much of it went unreported and unpunished.
http://www.news.com.au/national/inquiry-into-australian-defence-force-abuse-will-hear-survivors-recount-harrowing-tales/news-story/31c1edc9ab6922a8881ca751cdc8c74b
imacca
Tuesday, May 17, 2016 at 4:01 pm
Given how the NBN FTTP supporters have spruiked how wonderful it will be because everyone will want to use it so much – the take up numbers are underwhelming.
Trying again Moksha,
You accept the standard you walk past, and I will not walk past this.
Crank, apologise, right now. You probably didn’t think through your sentence before posting. This is your opportunity to fix your mistake.
@cranky you cannot compare with mobile networks.
1. They are not the same.
2. Mobile networks still vastly incomplete and have many issues thar havent been fixed.
markjs
Tuesday, May 17, 2016 at 4:09 pm
We don’t even give our diggers free cigs and 2 cans of beer per man per day perhaps and we are expecting them to die for us, so if that’s true about Manus then it’s a bit rich. What about their health?
I believe that Medicare will be the issue hat decides this election.
http://www.watoday.com.au/comment/how-the-federal-government-is-destroying-the-evidence-20160516-gowdve.html
Markjs
If Lazarus really said that, I have lost all respect for him.
Sky News Australia
13m13 minutes ago
Sky News Australia @SkyNewsAust
The Greens launch new ad opposing Shorten http://bit.ly/22ewYvw
Embedded image
CC
“Given how the NBN FTTP supporters have spruiked how wonderful it will be because everyone will want to use it so much – the take up numbers are underwhelming.”
I’m lucky it was available to us early. You can’t take up what’s not available to you. Also, many wait for current contracts to run out. The sweeping generalisations you make are quite breathtaking and ignorant
Scott – nothing to apologise for. The Aboriginals were here for about 40,000 years.
Aboriginal society was a stone age culture that does not meet the definition of civilization no matter how you spin it.
CC
“Don’t you feel any guilt being here on their land?”…do you?
5% thought the election campaign was too short???
Okay; hands up all the Bludgers who were polled …
“Aboriginal society was a stone age culture that does not meet the definition of civilization no matter how you spin it.”
So you apply an anglo saxon westernized definition of civilisation…..your nuts.
There are and have been and will be many alternate forms of civilization
Briefly, how the hell does this math works?
How can only 2% of the vote shift? If my vote use to be 48 out of 100 but now it is 52 out of 100 that means 4 out of 100 (4%) have shifted not 2 out of 100 (2%) like you suggest.
The next shift is 8%, i.e. from -4% to +4% but the shift itself is 4%.
Must be Marxists Day out.
That should be net shift, not the next shift
Compact Crank
Tuesday, May 17, 2016 at 4:22 pm
Must be Marxists Day out.
I would doubt that you would actually know what a marxist is.
David Feeney
2m2 minutes ago
David Feeney @Feeney4Batman
Read the @ANAO_Australia report into Coalition’s shonky “safe streets” (safe seats) grants – 88% to Tories https://www.anao.gov.au/work/performance-audit/award-funding-under-safer-streets-programme … #auspol
daretotread @ #74 Tuesday, May 17, 2016 at 3:59 pm
Maybe I am nuts. But maybe not. Bludgertrack suggests the Statewide federal swing is 9%. It will exceed this in some some seats. The last Newspoll had a Statewide swing wrt State voting intention that is well over 10%. Again the swing will be much more than 10% in many places.
You really have to be in WA to appreciate the very low opinion voters have of the State Government. The Libs have just busted the budget..not just for one year but for years and years to come. There is almost no-one willing to defend them. They themselves would prefer to give up. They are incredibly ineffectual and unconvincing and have been defeated by their own incompetence more than anything else. They are themselves hoping for Opposition. The Liberals will lose 2/3 of their seats and be grateful to be relieved of the responsibility of office.
corporate_misfit
Tuesday, May 17, 2016 at 4:21 pm
Strange as it may seem we are predominantly a Western Anglo-Saxon culture communicating in English so I use the relevant definition. There were other civilizations: Romans, Greeks, Chinese, Japanese, Mayans, etc. Aboriginal Stone Age culture didn’t leave any evidence of civilization as it is generally accepted. No formed roads. No permanent buildings. No feats of engineering.