Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

No change from Essential Research this week, which also records Malcolm Turnbull dipping into net negative territory on personal approval for the first time.

The latest result for Essential Research is largely unchanged on last week, with the Coalition steady on 42% of the primary vote, Labor steady on 38% and the Greens down one to 9%. One change is that the pollster has dumped Palmer United from its survey and replaced it with the Nick Xenophon Team, which opens it account on 3%. The poll also features Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which find Malcolm Turnbull up one on approval to 40% and up three on disapproval to 42%, Bill Shorten up four on approval to 34% and down one on disapproval to 43%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing from 44-22 to 43-28. There is also a suite of questions on social class, something 81% agreed existed in Australia, with only 8% saying otherwise. Only 2% of respondents identified as upper class, yet 53% thought the Liberal Party mainly served that party’s interests. Forty-eight per cent of respondents identified as middle class, which 15% thought mainly served by Liberal and 17% by Labor, while 34% identified as working class, which 39% thought mainly represented by Labor and 4% by Liberal. The poll also found 48% approval of the budget’s internships scheme for the young unemployed, and 52% rating the election campaign too long versus 5% for too short and 32% for about right.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,374 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Mt MCall road. That’s it. Thanks Kevin. Sharp quartzite rock, deep gorges and rainforest. I used to take mainlanders down there for a day trip.

  2. – one of which takes into account the Coalition’s history of strong performances relative to polling,

    Kevin, what is the “strong performance” a reference to?

  3. Whether or not Dutton was scheduled by team Turnbull to blow the dog whistle today, I think he stuffed it up by his sloppy reference to refugees in general who have come to Australia in the past, rather than the standard demonising of boat people shtick. Yeah na I think this mob are so inept that they can’t even sell their gimme BOATS mantra without offending a whole other tranche of voters at the same time. This is a very poor excuse for a government.

  4. Dutton went the whole Hanson. Somehow, I don’t think this could have been a well-planned gig. Attacking refugees is very, very low rent, even by the standards of the Crazy Branch of the LNP. My guess is that Liberal candidates will be aghast. They know that refugees belong to communities, that those communities are cohesive and that political cohesion in local communities can change the results of elections. They are also aware that racist expressions will mobilise community sentiments faster and more acutely than just about anything.

    So there will be some Crazy Branch applause for Dutton. But among those trying to win tough contests, there will be real anger. Dutton will have repelled far more votes than he may have affirmed. This is worth 1-2% of the vote in many seats and more than that in quite a few.

    Unlike Bluey, I would score yesterday for Labor. I would say, in fact, because it showed how weak Turnbot is, it was a very big day for Labor, albeit one they were not expecting and which will be a cause of worry for them.

    Turnbot tried to re-set the issue by talking about Border Security. This only serves to illustrate the extent to which Dutton misplayed his hand, also illustrating once again that this Government is both incompetent and disruptive.

    At a visceral level, voters do not like displays of malice and spite. They also dislike being taken for fools. These were characteristic of Abbott and were significant contributors to his rejection by the public. Yesterday, Dutton showed the Liberals have lost none of their taste for this kind of performance-politics. Voters will be singularly unhappy about it and will mark Turnbot down because of it.

  5. Of course, this all begs the question: Will The Split support the Party of Dutton on 2 July? Will they play tag with them? Will they put the Liberals last?

  6. Dutton has released a theme that will be discussed many times over in the electorate. It may take weeks to play out, depending what else comes along. I think voter opinion will settle where it always eventually settles – in favour of the values of inclusion, mutual acceptance and approval, community peace and cohesion. This is the default setting for our community. In fact, though some try to stir up xenophobic angst, the default setting is the only one that makes sense for us. It is what enables our society to function, both at the meta level and at inter-personal levels.

    So Dutton will register as a disruptor of our default understandings and will be shunned for it. Such a rejection can be very profound. This area is all about our identity and self-definition. Dutton has affronted these. He, his party and his so-called leader may be punished very heavily for the insult that is implied by their conduct. This is all the more so because his remarks were made for political purposes – transparently, to influence votes. Voters will have a very low opinion of that too because it implies that Dutton thinks we are stupid. Considering Dutton himself is an obvious imbecile, voters will be even more dismissive than usual.

    It may be he just lost the election for the LNP.

  7. I can’t see how the LNP begin to get their campaign – such as it is – back on track.

    Even their boats/border theme has now been thoroughly compromised by Dutton. They will scarcely be able to mention the topic without inviting comparisons with Hanson and spontaneous public condemnation of their anti-social ignorance.

    This is not the political styling with which Turnbot has been identified. Not at all. Dutton has just exploded the Turnbot brand. Actually, completely demolished it. The Turnbot we have known now lies in ruins. Maybe this is the revenge of the nutjobs. It sure looks like it from here.

  8. Dutton has completely discredited himself, his Party, the Government and his PM. Yet Turnbot described Dutton as an outstanding minister… or some such trope. Turnbot has pinned himself to the ministerial Donkey. What an idiot Turnbot is. Not only is he False Promise. Now he is also Gross Insult.

  9. The funny thing about turning into an Abbott clone is that his own side still hate him and the Center and the left now despise him.

  10. Another tollway disaster about to be built? Traffic predictions are untrustworthy. (A long read.)

    Last week, Sydney Motorway Corporation began sweeping away scores of homes, trees and open space across the inner western suburbs of Haberfield, Concord, and Homebush to make way for construction sites for the M4 East stage of its controversial 33-kilometre system of WestConnex tollways.

    WestconnexMAPLIt intends to destroy more hectares of Sydney Park and St Peters in a couple of months, after already compulsorily acquiring hundreds of homes and businesses.

    The NSW Baird government has handed responsibility for each stage of WestConnex to a consortium of companies. But two names stand out among the corporate crowd: Leighton Contractors (now officially called CIMIC but known as Leightons) and AECOM (previously Maunsell).

    Leightons has been awarded the largest share in all three of the Baird Government’s WestConnex construction tenders, worth more than $8 billion. But not before the NSW Government made a mockery of the process created to ensure environmental checks and balances – the NSW Department of Planning assessed and approved an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) after the contracts were awarded.

    Leightons and AECOM have connections in the tollway business going back to 2006. The story of AECOM’s association and the corporate disaster that followed their involvement in the North-South Bypass Tunnel (NSBT) in Brisbane, which became known as the Clem7 tollway, is infamous, and shines a spotlight on their current involvement in WestConnex.

  11. nappin @ #1353 Thursday, May 19, 2016 at 12:25 am

    – one of which takes into account the Coalition’s history of strong performances relative to polling,
    Kevin, what is the “strong performance” a reference to?

    If you look at the Coalition’s final 2PP score relative to its polling at pretty much any stage of an electoral cycle, it tends historically to recover better and to hold itself at a high level better than Labor. So the Coalition wins more often although their average polling through terms is about the same. In terms of the historic data sets used, Morgan Gallup up to mid-80s (it used to be a good pollster!) then mainly Newspoll up until I get to the stage where I can use aggregates.

  12. Bit of electric TV on 7.30 with Burke slapping down Corrman for mocking His short time as Immigration Minister. Corrman looked shocked, Sales more so.

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