The latest result for Essential Research is largely unchanged on last week, with the Coalition steady on 42% of the primary vote, Labor steady on 38% and the Greens down one to 9%. One change is that the pollster has dumped Palmer United from its survey and replaced it with the Nick Xenophon Team, which opens it account on 3%. The poll also features Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which find Malcolm Turnbull up one on approval to 40% and up three on disapproval to 42%, Bill Shorten up four on approval to 34% and down one on disapproval to 43%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing from 44-22 to 43-28. There is also a suite of questions on social class, something 81% agreed existed in Australia, with only 8% saying otherwise. Only 2% of respondents identified as upper class, yet 53% thought the Liberal Party mainly served that party’s interests. Forty-eight per cent of respondents identified as middle class, which 15% thought mainly served by Liberal and 17% by Labor, while 34% identified as working class, which 39% thought mainly represented by Labor and 4% by Liberal. The poll also found 48% approval of the budget’s internships scheme for the young unemployed, and 52% rating the election campaign too long versus 5% for too short and 32% for about right.
I keep hearing about this Crosby / Textor strategists. Some people look up to these guys like they are some Gods. Didn’t these guys also run 2015 Queensland campaign and 2016 London mayoral election? Seems a bit of hit and miss to me.
Pegasus
The refugees are doing better than Tasmanians, according to this ABS study.
For all the criticism of Marles I have to say he handled that interview spectacularly well considering
Paddy O:
When a link to tonight’s 730 is finally available I’ll watch to see what eastern staters saw.
Welcome JK.
Crosby Textor are probably like the wunderkind trader in the bull market. When the electorate turn the dial back to hope instead of fear their so called political dark arts turn out to be useless
Welcome JK, the next news poll will be interesting, there may be a small increase for the Libs in 2pp and primary votes, however I expect Turbulls personal figures to slide.
On a day by day basis as per Bluey, the ALP lost the day, that doesn’t mean they will loose the AS/refugee issue over the campaign, just that they lost today.
If this were a short campaign I would be more concerned, but there is still a long way to go.
This was too early and too hard.
I did like the day Shorten spend 4-5 days just on one theme – education.
He should spend another period like that on health.
In this case they had to respond to Dutton, but they Libs cannot keep throwing dead cats.
confessions @ #1304 Wednesday, May 18, 2016 at 10:45 pm
1. Paddy O confirmed the Sales interview was in 7.30 as broadcast in WA i.e. exactly the same program as other states.
2. You were provided with a link several minutes ago on the previous page.
Dio, as one who has resided in Tassie I suspect those stats are specific to a few suburbs in Hobart, Launceston, Devonport and Burnie …… and the whole of Queenstown…..
Fess
Don’t bother with iView, the latest episode is up on the 730 website.
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/
There are four stories listed for 18/5/16:
Northside Clinic warned about psychiatrist years before indecent assault charges;
Aurukun community remains divided over solutions to violence and disadvantage;
Interview: Opposition Immigration Spokesman Richard Marles;
First Syrian refugees call on Government to speed up resettlement process.
The direct link to the Marles interview is here: http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2015/s4465017.htm
I wonder if the Libs can sustain the whole refugees/boats dog whistling for the next 45 days?
Today was all about playing to their base, and keeping the former One Nation people on side.
Sure, bashing refugees plays well in Western Sydney and Brisbane, and those outraged by Dutton’s comments were never going to vote Liberal anyway.
The damage being done is to Turnball himself, I expect his disapproval ratings to go up and up.
Shorten doesn’t need any more fuckups like the David Feeney thing – Labor needs to get the conversation back onto its preferred ground.
No wonder Turnbulls looking over his shoulder.
abbott said in his latest interview the best thing right now was to get the turnbull government reelected.
not that a turnbull government was best for the future, just for it to be returned.
so that abbott can get back what was stolen from him
It seems very early in the campaign for the Libs to be going the full Hanson.
I guess there’s not much left for them given they can’t bang on this time about ‘debt and deficit’or ‘stabbing’ PMs. Their budget offered nothing good for most people. Friday’s PEFO will likely contain some sobering data that will cause more than a few of the economic commentators to want to be heard above the fray.
Once the discussion gets back onto the economy then the Libs are in big trouble.
Nappin
Queenstown is the worst place I’ve been in my life. Admittedly that was about 30 years ago.
Thanks DG. Wow Saleus Interruptus writ large!!
That’s pretty close to yesterday in Queenstown Dio
One of the interesting things about today Dutton kerfuffle is that it is completely contrary to Lynton Crosby’s “Cameron” strategy: “Don’t Get Excited, Keep Calm and Vote Tory…”
I suspect that the Team Turnbull campaign staff have limited ability to control the troops.
Testing
Tony Wright ‘Not Happy Peter!’
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016-opinion/election-2016-remind-us-peter-dutton-who-built-the-snowy-mountains-scheme-20160518-goy0k2.html
Can I have instructions on changing my avatar .please
Nothing ‘inner’ about Dutton’s Hanson. In fact, Dutton is a stupider version of Abbott.
In fact Dutton is a stupider version of Hanson
I don’t get into the ABC bias thing too much, but I do believe that Sales and Uhlan should be removed post haste. Many years ago I sat with an Oxford trained journalist (a leading senior journalist in his country) and over several days he pointed out the poor journalism in this country. He was, though, a fan of James Dibble, who, as he said, delivered the news professionally and dispassionately without putting his opinion in it.
Tom.
I don’t buy it. Howard was quite clever about how he did the dog whistle… This is just too transparent, more like Abbott, and it smells of desperation so early in the campaign.
Remember, the L-NP just got rid of Abbott, and the country rewarded them with a 10 point TPP shift in the polls. I assume that lift included Western Sydney, where the member for Lindsay also dumped Abbott (who won her seat by calling her sexy apparently?) to save her job. Although she can’t say it.
I suppose it might fire up the base, but none of them are part of the 10 point swing Turnbull got.
As far as I’m concerned it just got a lot easier to slag off Turnbull, the ALP should just start saying “Prime Minister Abbott” a lot.
Actually, south of Queenstown is pretty spectacular. Before they closed it you could drive along the old Franklin River dam road (4WD only) to the site of the proposed Franklin below Gordon. Incredible country. There was a side track along the old rail line to a ghost town on Macquarie Harbour. Beautiful temperate rainforest.
Diogenes
What’s going on with pathology?
I have quarterly test that used to cost $40. About a year ago it jumped to $100. And now for the most recent one they do not seem to have issued a bill…
News Corp journo loses licence, avoids jail https://t.co/xLwpIPmFb7 via @GoulburnPost
From Scotland assume this will feature on Daily Telegraph front page tomorrow.and pigs might fly too?
hi Poroti if you are around some more bagpipes please
“Jobs and Growth” was the L-NP slogan for this campaign. They can’t take a trick. This is the area where the campaign is more likely to be won.
Wage growth hits new 18-year low.
http://www.theage.com.au/business/markets/wage-growth-hits-new-18year-low-20160518-goxpit.html
Tom:
Uhlmann was hopeless on 730, Sales has been known to show flashes of enterprise, but on the whole isn’t up to scratch.
Bring back Red Kerry for mine.
C@Tmomma.. thanx for the Pyne interview transcript.. 🙂
eg theodore @ #1325 Wednesday, May 18, 2016 at 11:16 pm
Your GP ticked the box instructing them to bulk bill.
Insist that your GP do this.
“Ole Coke bottles” ..not happy:
“Peter Dutton: a menace to multicultural Australia”
https://theconversation.com/peter-dutton-a-menace-to-multicultural-australia-59618
My pleasure, markjs. 🙂
Question,
The ‘Growth’ is in profits, NOT Wages, silly! 😀
I don’t care what any of you say… this is car-crash reality-television of the highest order. And we have SIX MORE WEEKS OF IT!!! The crazy libs are firing both barrels, letting off the hand-grenades, jumping up and down, throwing spears, and shouting at the top of their lungs all at the same time. It’s not possible to keep this up for six weeks is it? IS IT?!!?!?!
markjs @ #1331 Wednesday, May 18, 2016 at 11:27 pm
Disgusting misogyny and ageism. 😡
Nappin,
Beautiful temperate rainforest.
Which I have outside my backdoor. And it’s just a couple of hours outside Sydney! 🙂
Privi Izumo,
It’s not possible to keep this up for six weeks is it? IS IT?!!?!?!
You should watch parliament! They do it all the time! They’re politicians! They can talk about absolutely anything as if they mean it for hours! Or bag out the Opposition.
Have a good night all! 🙂
I don’t buy this as a deliberate strategy. Dutton is too, well… dense, to be trusted with launching a distraction hand grenade. It strikes me as a brain fart that had to be backed up. I disagree COMPLETELY that ‘any day the media is talking about AS, is a good day for the coalition’. The way this has been framed has been a balls-up of epic proportions, I don’t think this has knee-capped the Government, but I don’t see how this can be framed as a legitimate good day.
I mean, without this, the biggest story of today would have been Feeney…
Bemused re: Pathology
No this is not the case – I have been aware of this option and both checked that it was not ticked and decided not to ask the surgeon to do it (it’s not appropriate to take advantage of an option just because it’s there).
Thanks Markjs @11:27,
Grattan has become much better in recent times, and having read that article I am even more inclined to think it is less of a “cunning plan” and more evidence of dysfunction.
Oakes on Ch9 didn’t seem convinced either. talking about boats is good for the base, but not good for the Turnbull brand.
Temperate rainforest near Sydney: Illawarra?
Question
Just saw your reply to my which you sent while I was asleep (I’m on the other side of the planet right now).
Here’s the link I was referring to, for what it’s worth;
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/trump_41_clinton_39
C@t, the growth is in dysfunction 🙂
Hi Bonza,
Thanks for that, I don’t plan to pay close attention until after the conventions. I still do not think Trump will win 🙂
This is why I will wait until after the conventions to get interested, I find this a bit dubious.
Dogwhistling appeals to a section of the Liberal base. On the other hand, its appeal to the sort of swinging voters who assess the alternatives on the basis of the hip pocket nerve or other percieved self-interest would be limited.
Then you’ve got the disengaged, those who pay as much attention to politics as I do to AFL or the Kardashians. What they’re hearing in the media is whatever has the highest volume – the Daily Rupert in their capital city, shoutback radio and what passes for news and current affairs on commercial TV. What they heard there today is “asylum seekers taking our jobs and bludging on the dole”, “Whaaaa Terrorists” and something about a Labor pollie they’d never heard of doing something bad.
The dogwhistle only works at the margins, but that’s often all that’s needed in a close contest.
Test
I agree JNumbers, and that story came out last night, so you think they would have saved this “cunning plan” for another day. What with this and most of the evening news having a woman singing to Shorten I think he would have been quite pleased with how it panned out.
nappin @ #1324 Wednesday, May 18, 2016 at 11:15 pm
I’ve been right along the Mt McCall road; I did some scientific work there (just a day trip) about 15 years ago. Understand it is limited access now (and may have been then too). Good scenery still available on the Mt Jukes road, and for those travelling the W coast, the Anthony road is a great byway.