Morgan has released a poll of federal voting intention derived only from this weekend’s round of face-to-face and SMS polling, and not combining two weeks of polling as per its usual practice. Compared with the poll from the two weekends before the election was called, the poll records a solid drop in the Coalition primary vote from 40% to 36.5%, with Labor up half a point to 33%, the Greens up two to 15.5% and the Nick Xenophon team up one to 5%. On the headline respondent-allocated measure of two-party preferred, this converts into an increase in Labor’s lead from 51-49 to 52.5-47.5. Going off 2013 election preference flows, the change is from 50.5-49.5 to 52-48. Despite the shorter than usual field work period, the sample is a considerable 2318.
Turnbulls only chance is to get Abbott alongside for support 😉
Bug1:
Thanks for that, much appreciated.
Confessions
I predicted the same and it is why I am in awe of what Peta Credlin was able to do with the NE. From the moment she came on board she kept the inner Abbott under control. Until of course he got the top gig. After which he would not have cared as the “golden child” had fulfilled mummies prediction.
How the hell the Herald thinks they can offload a journo like Michael West and keep Massola and keep readers happy is beyond me.
K17, it depends where you want your bread buttered. As I noted earlier , there has been a hard swing to the right at SMH et al recently. Massola fits in perfectly. They seem to be refocussed on becoming The Australian any getting Malcolm’s kingly blessings.
LNP primary vote if 36.5, the same as it was 2 weeks before Abbott got dumped.
Here for you Schadenfraudian pleasure, A Bolt and P Credlin discuss N Savva
http://www.snappytv.com/tc/1945011/939666
Given the landline problem this poll may in fact be more accurate than ones that skew other polls.
Some older people have problems operating mobiles and landlines but this number will be small. At least smaller than the youth who only own a mobile and don’t know what a landline is.
I agree its only one poll. However it does confirm the downward trend of the LNP in past polls.
Sorry older people have landlines who can ‘t operate mobiles I mean.
KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
Monday, May 16, 2016 at 8:29 pm
says, ‘Rod. Don’t worry about Boerwar. Before the last election his big crusade was telling people not to vote at all.’
That is illegal, so I did not do it. I did form the Informal Party and urged people to vote for that.
The choice was Rudd or Abbott.
There was no way I was going to cast a vote which forced a false choice between two people both of whom I regard(ed) as insane. Milne was, of course, irrelevant.
It worked. Rudd has upped his megalomania to GG UN while Abbott is now plotting the destruction of the Liberal Party.
Shorten is sane so in this election we have a real choice for prime minister.
BTW, you would be thrilled to know that the ACT had the highest proportion of deliberate informal votes. I assume that this is because more than most people, ACTeers had had a close association with both Rudd or Abbott or knew people who had had a close association with Rudd and/or Abbott.
Greens have Nick McKim on side. He is an absolute tactical master of the hung parliament “No deals” situation. See his appearance on Q&A from 2010 for an illustration of that.
If Labor refuses to negotiate with the Greens their only options are
1: Greens become agenda powerbrokers and get permanent spots in the daily news cycle.
2: Labor forms Grand Coalition with the Liberals.
3: Labor drags everyone back to an “arrogance election”, rejecting Greens olive branch.
Negotiation with the Greens is the least-worst option for Labor. They either make it work or this is going to happen over and over again.
Bug1, Thanks for posting that graph. Very interesting.
Hadley encouraging his RWNJ audience to “just vote 1” simply means a lot of RWNJ votes are going to exhaust and not influence the election result.
Seems self-defeating to me.
I wonder what Hadley thinks he is achieving.
NAPPIN – True, but the Australian has got a firm lock on the right-wing nutbag demographic. Surely the Herald is going to bleed a lot of readers to the Guardian.
Hadley might be trying to show that he can count to one.
citizen @ #149 Monday, May 16, 2016 at 8:29 pm
I can see the green vote going up; there is a large chunk of Australia that are not impressed with our treatment of refugees; I’m one of them. I am even less impressed with the greens desire for perfection over a solution. What have we seen over the last three days; “to support Labor on the floor the greens are demanding perfection”. The greens only have two other alternatives; support the Liberals; I’m sure that will go down well; or a no confidence motions for both sides; I’m sure that will go down well.
BW
That’d be a bit of a stretch for Hadley!
screwed up my last post. My comment begins with ‘citizen’ in lower case and ends with the words ‘di Natale too’.
Above and below is the post I was responding to.
TPOF
If voters do one only as Green who would then give LNP their second preference to send a message normally thats a loss to the LNP 👿
They can challenge all they like; Hadley is right.
Sprocket:
Hilarious. 1. there is no atmosphere on Bolt’s Sky show. None. 2. Credlin v Savva on the Abbott v Turnbull staffer wars is a sight to behold.
Shorten Win!
PG – If the Greens don’t support Labor on a no-confidence motion (and basically their legislative agenda) Labor will got straight back to the polls. We can argue up hill and down dale whether that would be a smart move (I think it would be because the Greens would be pummeled for not supporting Labor). But it is a bedrock conviction in the Labor Party (rightly or wrongly) that the Greens helped wreck RGR govt. They will not be a host organism for a Green party that only has a couple of seats in the HoR.
FREDNK – There are also a long of young people who think they are getting screwed because their lives are harder than those of their deadbeat parents. Fertile ground for the greens.
“But it is a bedrock conviction in the Labor Party (rightly or wrongly) that the Greens helped wreck RGR govt. ”
Sadly some always seem to need an external “bedrock conviction” when all they have to really do is look in the Ruddy mirror! 😉
Even if I believed in 2013 that both leaders were insane, Labor had a mostly good program for Australia while the Coalition’s program, the small part that had been disclosed, was populist crap which would make George W Bush (even Donald Trump) look like one of the century’s great intellectuals. I and many suspected that lots of nasties were hidden (as we found out in the 2014 Budget).
There was a real and obvious choice, even if it was in the minds of many least worst.
K17
Thats wrongly by people who don’t see the LNP and Murdoch agenda.
As for the Greens doing a no confidence motion the people would support that on the grounds and only the grounds that the public had seen the Greens try and work with Labor as they have stated during the election campaign.
With Labor leadership saying no deal now the public will believe the Greens and not Labor. The Greens by that time will have a history of saying they are willing to work with Labor.
Be very sure the LNP and Greens would both be blaming Labor and likely others in parliament as well.
Its all very well and nice to say the Greens have no cards but its not quite true.
Just enjoyed a reachtel state voting intention poll (for WA – yeah this is probably the wrong thread), they did party and premier, then alternative liberal leader, I was hoping for a someone else option but went with Joe Francis, a few questions about privatisation in the context of western power or horizons or whoever, and whether or not you were one of those idiots who still believed in privatisations as a good thing.
As a technical question they seemed to have almost all the questions skewed to the same response place, such that if you were sick of it but hadn’t decided to hangup but kept pressing 1 you’d register as consistent, in this case consistently opposed to privatisation. There was a possible check in that if you were doing 1 … 1 … 1 without really paying attention you’d be thoroughly and strongly against privatisation but then say it was more likely to make you vote liberal. Is that a deliberate thing, or is this issue something they don’t really take into account?
K17, agreed. But I also see people looking for an alternative “trusted source”. The ABC has wasted it’s 8c a day trying to become a commercial-style infotainment channel and has lost much of its gravitas. Fairfax is mini-me Murdoch. Where else does one go?
Now can we shut up about hung parliaments. By the time the election comes down the LNP are going to be worse in the polls.
If this trend is speeding up as the Morgan seems to indicate (Has to be confirmed by other polling) who knows if the LNP will be getting into the teens on primary votes by then. I know a bit of hyperbole but it seems to get the point across.
We know the trend is away from the lNP we just don’t know by how much. We could be looking at landslide territory for Labor with this trend. I think thats more likely than a hung parliament.
[Labor in the 2.00 -3.00 range in Robertson, Banks, Reid, Brisbane, Bonner, Cowan]
Evan Parsons – I saw the Labor candidate for Banks on the Drum tonight. He was quite impressive and I hope he’s in with a big chance to win the seat.
Rod Hagen
Monday, May 16, 2016 at 8:48 pm
says…
“But it is a bedrock conviction in the Labor Party (rightly or wrongly) that the Greens helped wreck RGR govt. ”
Sadly some always seem to need an external “bedrock conviction” when all they have to really do is look in the Ruddy mirror! ”
Sadly some people can only see a single variable when trying to explain complex issues.
There is absolutely no doubt at all that Rudd was a disaster.
There is absolutely no doubt at all that the Greens were a disaster for Labor.
Both statements can be, and are, true at the same time.
rod hagen @ #125 Monday, May 16, 2016 at 8:05 pm
Better education will reduce the Greens vote.
mari
Hoots mon hello. Check these Swiss out. The stuff from the 4:48 mark is truly !!!!!!
“Top Secret Drum Corps Edinburgh Military Tattoo 2009′
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJVdnMAGIt8
One poll does not create a polling trend.
GUYTAUR – If Labor went back to the polls against a shattered Liberal party (would Malcolm still be leader?) I think they would romp home and the Greens would have no seats. Why on earth should labor have to do “deals” with a Green party that has a couple of seats. Green MPs want a bit of pork for their electorates, maybe. A bridge? A school? A hospital? Maybe. But concessions on policy? Forget it. That would be insane.
A great photo of Kate Carnell here:
https://twitter.com/SirThomasWynne/status/732159478355791872/photo/1
BW
I am talking of the trend that started about February. This is part of that trend. An outlier or real indicator we will see when more polling is reported.
If there is a hung parliament with no deals Turnbull will be asked to test the confidence of the house. If he fails to gain the required votes Shorten will be asked to do the same.
If the Greens alone have the balance of power votes it will be them forcing a new election. Simple really.
[Sadly some always seem to need an external “bedrock conviction” when all they have to really do is look in the Ruddy mirror! ]
You say this like you are oblivious to the range of strongly held views on this subject. Do you want an RGR war or do you think if you share your particular view it somehow justifies it and makes you a little less obsessed, because you do realise hating Rudd that much that you just need to express your view, a view you should know many disagree with, every single chance you get doesn’t do you a lot of favours. In fact taking all that happened and having watched the Killing Season to concentrate all of your ill-feeling and to lay it all at the feet of Rudd is pretty insane.
There were lots of guilty parties in the wrecking of the RGR Government, including not least R and G and members of their teams. A feral Opposition backed by a feral media who let Abbott get away with murder didn’t help. And RGR annoyed Big Money, as any good progressive Government must. They don’t like to be crossed and the blowback was handled incompetently.
The Greens were there too, insisting on 100% of nothing on asylum seekers and (back in 2009) on emission trading.
I was just polled by ReachTel. Questions as follows (to the best of my ability with the notes I was able to type on one hand):
1. Who are you going to vote for at the next election (Liberal / Labor)
2. Who is your preferred premier? (Barnett / McGowan
3. Which liberal leader do you think is best to lead the liberals to the next election (4 choices)
4. Do you agree with the Barnett Government’s plans to privatise Western Power? (strongly agree, agree, neutral, disagree, strongly disagree)
5. Do you think that privatising Western Power will lead to increased prices? (strongly agree, agree, neutral, disagree, strongly disagree)
6. Do you think that privatising Western Power will lead to reductions in preventative maintenance? (strongly agree, agree, neutral, disagree, strongly disagree)
7. Do you think that privatising Western Power will lead to job losses? (strongly agree, agree, neutral, disagree, strongly disagree)
8. Will privatising Western Power make you more or less likely to vote for the Liberals at the next election (more, no change, less)
It’ll be a cold day in hell before I’d ever vote Liberal, and I’m strongly against privatising Western Power. I have business dealings with them and they are horrific enough to deal with now, never mind once they are privatised.
G
One poll does not form a trend.
K17
With a hung parliament and a new election the LNP may hang on to be win or at least force a LNP minority government. Any imploding will be after not before its confirmed they have lost government. Negotiating periods they will hang together like they did the week before the election.
However the truth is this hung parliament stuff is nonsense. To me its more Labor will win outright as polls like this and the whole of a normal election campaign time period still to come.
BW
This poll is the last in a series of polls confirming a trend. Morgan Newspoll Essential
Just look at Bludgertrack. The lines are not moving up for the LNP
Actually there is another way, a better way: LEGISLATE.
Seriously, do you even know what the FWC is? It’s a group of people appointed by such staunch defenders of workers’ rights as Michaelia Cash. The commission is a gravy train for hacks and ideologues, many of whom are itching to do the Coalition’s bidding. Why would you trust it to make the rules that govern people’s livelihoods and quality of life? Why do you treat it as sacrosanct and superior to the parliament? Why would a party that is committed to workers’ rights make a submission to this body and cross its fingers when it could promise to protect penalty rates by statute?
rod hagen @ #136 Monday, May 16, 2016 at 8:19 pm
The Greens party will huff and puff and in the end the overwhelming majority of their voters will preference Labor.
In the unlikely event Labor falls short of a majority in its own right, then the Greens are free to support a minority Labor Govt or a minority LNP Govt. Labor does not have to offer them anything.
If the Greens were to vote an ALP minority Govt out of office then be it on their head.
Of course all this assumes there will be any Greens in the HoR and this may well not happen. Problem solved in the best possible way.
The culling of a few Greens in the Senate will be beneficial too.
I suppose that is why Melbourne; the electorate with the highest education level in any Australia electorate gave us Dr. Adam Bandt MP.
Some of those questions are a little skewed Grimace. Is that your typing or is it a bit of push polling?
[4. Do you agree with the Barnett Government’s plans to privatise Western Power? (strongly agree, agree, neutral, disagree, strongly disagree)
5. Do you think that privatising Western Power will lead to increased prices? (strongly agree, agree, neutral, disagree, strongly disagree)
6. Do you think that privatising Western Power will lead to reductions in preventative maintenance? (strongly agree, agree, neutral, disagree, strongly disagree)
7. Do you think that privatising Western Power will lead to job losses? (strongly agree, agree, neutral, disagree, strongly disagree)
8. Will privatising Western Power make you more or less likely to vote for the Liberals at the next election (more, no change, less) ]
I may have answered the first question of this lot wrongly, do they switch the questions (ie have two questions that switch the numbers around)?
We’ve already seen that stuff Murray is going on about. It’s old news.