Morgan has released a poll of federal voting intention derived only from this weekend’s round of face-to-face and SMS polling, and not combining two weeks of polling as per its usual practice. Compared with the poll from the two weekends before the election was called, the poll records a solid drop in the Coalition primary vote from 40% to 36.5%, with Labor up half a point to 33%, the Greens up two to 15.5% and the Nick Xenophon team up one to 5%. On the headline respondent-allocated measure of two-party preferred, this converts into an increase in Labor’s lead from 51-49 to 52.5-47.5. Going off 2013 election preference flows, the change is from 50.5-49.5 to 52-48. Despite the shorter than usual field work period, the sample is a considerable 2318.
William! I thought I wasn’t going to see a Morgan today.
I’m loving that Greens PV!
Morrison has been invisible since budget week. As has Cormann.
sprocket,
What are you trying to say.
Don’t you know that Sophie is good friends with Abbott?
In what sense are we using outlier, or perhaps specifically what does outlier mean?
fess,
Julie Bishop is in “witness protection” apparently.
BB
It’s the COALESCECE!
Could someone explain why NXT vote in SA, if correct, would only affect Liberal seats and not Labor.
As for Morgan, it’s another poll to consider along with others we will be hit with later this week.
BK,
More the Makesense!
O.K., Billbowe,
got it. I’m being stupid I realise.
However, I did alert a broadcaster to this site and know he does take note.
I hope he gets you on the wireless again.
GG:
Yes I haven’t seen JBishop in the news in what feels like ages.
Tax dodging is Australia’s #1 export.
https://twitter.com/ianw84/status/732030868592566272/photo/1
I’m still going to lock up the pooch tonight.
Ah, GG, you still imagine I care much whether a Greens or a lefty ALP candidate wins. I don’t think it really matters that much (save that Green seats put pressure on the ALP to really listen to its left, not its right). I’d hate to see the current silly games give the Libs seats though, or the ALP get hoist on its own petard over the silly “no alliance” nonsense. What’s the meaning of this particular poll? Who knows, but on the face of it it sure as heck looks a lot better for the Greens than the ALP. Don’t fight it! Either way helps get rid of the Libs. For a heck of a lot of voters that’s the main thing!
BK
thanks for good wishes, going to be hard not being in close proximity to Prunefacebut I will battle on. Have applied for a postal vote to go to friend’s place in UK so I can vote I think Pruneface will be hoping it won’t get there
Bluey Bulletin no 56 Day 56 of 103
Bluey reckons today hurt Turnbull.
WASTEWATCH
Bluey reckons that it is outrageous that Shorten proposes to spend taxpayers’ money on teaching kids how to swim. Bluey reckons you might as well teach occies to walk. Besides, why do private mansions have swimming pools if not for private swimming instructors to teach rich kids to swim?
RIGGED
It is looking increasingly as if some sensational recorded conversations are going to have nasty repercussions for a certain bank which is in the crosshairs for rigging rates. Bluey reckons making money out of nothing should be left to politicians, not banks. Bluey reckons that Shorten should take the opportunity to give the banks a puzzling about refusing to accept the desirability of a RC.
GITTINS GUTS SCOMO
In a nice little analysis in the SMH Gittins guts Scomo’s big numbers, but Bluey notes that Gittins fails to mention the obvious corollary: this Budget is all about forcing the GST increase on ordinary Aussies. That is the only way that the Morrison/Turnbull humungous 16,000,000,000 crabs per annum black hole will be filled.
RETRO ARK
‘Answers in Genesis’ have raised 20 million crabs to build a replica ark to the original specs. Bluey can’t wait to see them loading the puff adders.
THE IRS
Turnbull reckons that throwing $8-$11 billion at the IRS is better than throwing $11 billion at Australian schools and hospitals. Because we all know that throwing money at a problem does not necessarily fix the problem. In fact, if you listen to the toffs, it makes the problem worse. You end up with jails full of Storrars. Bluey reckons that this one could smash the Coalition. The MSM have not really got their heads around it but when it does, Bluey reckons KERBLUEY!
WHICH TEAM AUSTRALIA?
Team A.
Doctors, teachers, victims of domestic violence, public school kids, parliament house cleaners, superannuants, kids who might otherwise drown, homeless, renters, workers in insecure work, people on penalties
The B Team
Real Estate Agents, foreign owners of Australia’s mining industry, bankers, finance industry spivs, onstruction industry billionaires, the ACCI, the BCA and the IRS, the Greens, Joyce, assorted farmers and the Liberals.
FUD BLOWBACK
Brandis comes out with a bit of outrageous security FUD and traps… Turnbull. Bluey reckons that Shorten was biding his time on this one and then whammo.
ALTERNATIVE REALITY
Bluey had a chortle because he went to see whether he could pass himself off as a delusional Greens when he did the ABC political compass. Bluey reckons that the only 100% certainty about the Compass is that it is at least one occie out.
THE GREENS GAZETTE
The Australian had a main article all about what the Greens are going to force Shorten to do when the Greens start Greensmailing the hapless Shorten. Bluey reckons that if Greens voters haven’t wised up that they are being gamed by the forces of darkness then Greens voters are utterly stupid. If they have wised up, they are complicit in the suffering of asylum seekers, the wrecking of the Reef and the transfer of wealth from the poor to the wealthy and the foreigners.
CHEAP IMITATIONS
Bluey notes the shameless art imitating life done by First Dog with his low rent Snitty Bird. Now Shanners is shamelessly hitching a ride on BK’s intellectual capital. From today’s Oz: ‘For the beginning of the longest election campaign in living memory, the first week on the road seemed less like The Longest Day than The Dawn Patrol.’
BORIS JUMPS THE SHARK
Boris did Godwin’s Law on Brexit, and Bluey reckons that it was only a matter of time.
SHERRI SUFI JUMPS THE SHARK
Bluey reckons that Sufi is a serial shark jumper. He stole a bit of Turnbull’s oxygen today. Disunity is death.
SANDGROPERS DON’T STAY BOUGHT
Turnbull has tipped a billion into the WA budget black hole maw. No sign of gratitude from Barnett. They are stamping their feet and demanding more.
BIZARRE
Probyn, a trans-species acquaintance of Bluey’s, is usually well-tempered in his assessements. His assessment of Turnbull’s visit to WA today was ‘bizarre’. Turnbull turns up, no candidate, no Barnett, one event and then scarpers to the NT. Very ‘peculiar’ according to Probyn, ‘hot tempered’ Prime Minister we saw today.
TAKEN TO THE CLEANERS
Bluey notes that while the born-to-rule Liberal MPs have thrown more money at themselves in pay rises, they have ensured that Parliament House cleaners have not had a pay rise in four years.
GRAEME MORRIS
Gave evens to Turnbull and Shorten evens after week one. Bluey reckons this translates to a major victory for Shorten.
TANTI
Mr Turnbull has an alleged reputation that includes an alleged volcanic temper and an alleged proclivity for delivering not nice character assessments. Bluey has no opinion on this. Nid nod. Nid nod. Nid nod. Bluey is unaware of any footage of either of these alleged character traits but reckons that such footage would sink Turnbull instanter. Bluey notes that KMurphy has observed that Turnbull has done two ‘mini-tantis’ this week. Bluey reckons that the journos are circling around this one like vultures circling a dying elephant.
POLLING
Bluey notes that Morgans continues to play with the minds of the credulous. Blue reckons that Morgans is not worth a pinch.
Verdict for the day: Labor
Cumulative tally: Labor 35.5 Liberal 20.5
That Morgan ALP 54 LNP 46 result in WA seems out of the ball park. Green’s election calculator only permits a 10% swing and in WA that equates to ALP 51.7 LNP 48.3. Am I missing something? Is there a revolt on the cards in WA? Is there any precedence for such a swing in a single state?
Best tweet of the night, from Walter Slurrie
“Been out door-knocking in Wentworth.
Knocked on 253 doors.
And that was just Malcolm Turnbull’s house.
#ausvotes2016 #auspol”
Yes the 2pp is in the ballpark but it’s a Morgan. I’ll wait for a few more polls before I get too excited.
But that said I have long predicted this scenario, so I expect we’ll see more results around 52/48 over the next few weeks.
[Somehow, I don’t think it is the real Chris Kenny]
Good news for GG, you can rest easy now
millennial @ #8 Monday, May 16, 2016 at 6:10 pm
Anything above 0 is too high for the Loons.
Boris,
I always rest easy. The sleep of the righteous is all I deserve.
Thanks, Boerwar, for Bluey’s summation. Much appreciated, as always.
rod hagen @ #80 Monday, May 16, 2016 at 7:28 pm
I wouldn’t be too confident of that Greens PV. Most pollsters usually overestimate the Green vote compared to the actual election results, especially when the Green vote is fairly high.
Rod Hagen
Monday, May 16, 2016 at 7:35 pm
Sorry Boerwar. I used to enjoy your posts here in the “old days”, but the current rants just don’t do the old ‘you’ justice. We both know the ALP will be more than happy to accept Green prefs and also the votes of Green parliamentarians if it makes the dif between Government or non Government.
Stop the silly charades and get back to what you were once good at – fighting tories! “More bore” just doesn’t have the same ring as the “Boerwar”of old!
Sorry Rod
You and I both know that Di Natale and Milne deliberately raised the certainty of a Greens Labor Coalition in a hung parliament. We both know that his was intended to damage Labor and that it has done so. We both know that if the Greens wanted to stop Turnbull they would give out Labor-preferenced tickets as a matter of course. We both know that the Greens are forcing Labor to divert resources away from fighting the Liberals to fighting the Greens. We both know that the Greens are opportunistic and shameless wedge-wielders and that the targets of their wedges is always Labor.
You get the pattern
Labor has learned a bitter lesson from the RGR years. For the Greens an alliance in government is a win-win. Because they always hedge their bets, complaining that they did not get everything they wanted. For Labor a Greens alliance was lose lose. Labor was blamed for everything that went wrong. And they could never meet the Greens one hundred percenters. Greensmail has come close to destroying Labor. So far and no more.
Good on Shorten, I say. In your dreams.
Your days of the old sucker punch are finished.
Ah bemused! All those danged kids now allowed to vote! Heck, if we raised the voting age to 45 the Greens’d be pushing it to get 10%! 😉
rossmore @ #116 Monday, May 16, 2016 at 7:55 pm
This sounds entirely plausible for WA. The Liberals are likely to lose most of their seats.
The sample size for WA in this poll would be about 250. The margin of error would be about 6.4%.
Boerwar:
Another brilliant synopsis by Bluey! Please pass on my thanks and appreciation.
ML & C
Bluey says no worries.
It appears James Massola may have been a bit ” liberal” with the truth in his article this afternoon re unions turning on Shorten.
I cannot speak for the comments from the ETU but it appears the AMWU supports the approach by labor not to legislate. A bit different to what Massola reports.
So Massola has rung around the unions and found one who agrees with the greens, the ETU and not much else.
Not really a huge revolt against Bill but no real surprise from Massola.
Cheers.
GG
Agree that Shorten is doing Turnbull slowly.
raaraa @ #41 Monday, May 16, 2016 at 6:47 pm
Rubbish.
Plug it into the ABC calculator and you get a substantial Labor majority.
If the ALP want to learn a lesson from the “RGR” years, Boerwar, its surely simply “Don’t let the likes of Rudd anywhere near your political party”! Apart from his nonsense it was actually an extremely effective government, Greens notwithstanding. Sadly the gains on emissions made as a result of the alliance with the Greens have now all be wasted. Lets hope the ALP have the guts to stand up again on a Carbon price and real targets (with a bit of Greens help) this time around , too! 😉
This might (or might not) be interesting, if anyone’s able to watch it:
Paul Murray @PMOnAir
NEW DATA shows who’s winning #ausvotes in marginal seats + what issues are dominating the coverage.
See it, #pmlive. 9pm AET
Yep.
Indeed bemused at http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2016/05/16/morgan-52-5-47-5-labor-4/comment-page-3/#comment-2394966
The notion that the ALP “can’t win” with a primary vote in the mid 30’s is simply nonsense these days. It ignores the Greens vote, which invariably translated to around 80% of their primaries as an ALP pref vote. Effectively this brings the ALP primary equivalent back to the over 40% of the “good old days”. Lets hope that the ALP don’t cut off their nose to spite their face wrt such things!
Turnbull seems to get his nickers in a knot when he’s not treated like the messiah but as Brian’s mother said he’s not the messiah he’s just a naughty boy.
The last day to enrol to vote or to change enrolment details for the upcoming election is Monday 23 May.
Remind any young people you know (unless they’re Tories).
https://www.facebook.com/malcolmturnbull/photos/a.121419221578.123742.53772921578/10154259331176579/?type=3&theater
Finally Malcolm finds a Liberal candidate willing to be seen in public with him!!
DOYLEY – Today’s story was Kill Bill Massola’s basic M.O. He rings up twenty people, gets one to agree with him and then says that there is dissension in the Labor ranks. A truly pathetic journalist. I see that he’s now described as “Chief Political Reporter” whatever the hell that is. Is that new?
How the hell the Herald thinks they can offload a journo like Michael West and keep Massola and keep readers happy is beyond me.
Not sure if this image will work, but its a graph of morgan results broken down by age groups, not a surprising result if you look at the trend.
Rod Hagen
Monday, May 16, 2016 at 8:14 pm
You posit a mutual exclusivity that did not exist.
Rudd was a disaster but that does not mean that the Greens were not also poison.
We would have an ETS right now but for the Greens.
It would almost certainly have been improved as it went along.
We would have regional processing in Malaysia but for the Greens
It would almost certainly have been improved as it went along.
Only the other day I heard Milne boasting about what the Greens had achieved in the House. There was no mention by Milne that the Greens had been a very junior party. So they brag about their achievements and complain bitterly about Labor not doing enough. They wedge Labor ruthlessly and relentlessly. And, during this election, the Greens are doing their level best to suck the oxygen out of Labor, not the Liberals.
I know it is difficult for a leftie to understand but Labor has had a gutful of being hammered by the Greens while Labor simultaneously has an existential fight against the Liberals.
The Greens are strong on dreaming but it is over. Finished. No more bastardry masquerading as being reasonable. Gone.
The next time you guys have some power in government will be when you form government in your own right.
By then the Reef will be gone.
Rod, Labor and the Greens will obviously work together in the future. But I don’t think Labor is prepared to “agree” to give the Greens anything in return for their support. There will be no deals. The Greens will support no-confidence or they won’t. Or maybe I’m even overstating that.
Great tweet, sprocket.
The Libs were confident of 6 senate seats from most states in a DD. With this primary they do not have 5 quotas, some nervous sitting senators in lib land tonight.
BUG1 – Fascinating.
Rod. Don’t worry about Boerwar. Before the last election his big crusade was telling people not to vote at all.
Kevin, its the 35-49 year old age group that changed in the last fortnight, that is also the most populous.
Shock jock Hadley continues to tell his listeners that it is OK for them to just write “1” above the line for the Senate. He claims that the AEC advertisements are wrong when they instruct electors to number six boxes (1 – 6) because the “savings” provision in the legislation allows for a vote to be valid even if fewer boxes to be numbered.
He sounds very dogmatic about this, presumably because he reckons that most of his listeners would only want to vote for the LNP.
My non-expert thought is that the “savings” provision is meant to cater for situations where the elector makes an inadvertent error in marking the ballot paper, rather than a deliberate choice to ignore the instructions (as Hadley is telling people to do). On that basis, I expect there could be a lot of challenges from party scrutineers when these votes are counted.
Sportsbet odds: Labor favourites to pick up the following Coalition seats – Solomon, Petrie, Capricornia, Patterson, Dobell, Barton, Macarthur, Eden Monaro, Deakin, Lyons, Hindmarsh, Burt, Swan, Hasluck.
Labor in the 2.00 -3.00 range in Robertson, Banks, Reid, Brisbane, Bonner, Cowan