Today’s Sunday Tasmanian has results from ReachTEL polling of each of the five lower house seats in Tasmania, from a combined sample of 3019. The report says the poll credits the Liberals with 51-49 leads in Bass and Lyons, independent Andrew Wilkie with an increased majority in Denison, Labor member Julie Collins with a lead of 54-46 in Franklin, and Liberal member Brett Whiteley with a primary vote lead of 42.7% to 32.6% in Braddon, suggesting little change on his 2.6% winning two-party margin in 2013. The Jacqui Lambie Network would find “solid support” in the northern electorates, particularly her home base of Braddon, but has just 2.7% support in Denison and 2.5% in Franklin (this being before exclusion of around 7.5% undecided). I will be able to go into greater depth on these results tomorrow, but will be beaten to it by Kevin Bonham, who promises to publish a comprehensive overview at 8.30am.
In other partly reported poll news, Brisbane’s Sunday Mail has a tranche of state results from that Galaxy poll that provided federal results yesterday, but none of the voting intention numbers are provided in the online report. The report does relate that Tim Nicholls’ coup against Lawrence Springborg the Friday before last had 42% approval and 27% disapproval, and that Annastacia Palaszczuk leads Nicholls as preferred premier by 44% to 29%. Much is made of the fact that this isn’t as good for Palaszczuk as the 54-26 she happened to record against Lawrence Springborg in November. There will be voting intention eventually, I promise.
UPDATE: Kevin Bonham details the full results from the ReachTEL poll. The published respondent-allocated results have the Liberals leading 51-49 in Bass (54.0-46.0 at the 2013 election), 53-47 in Braddon (52.6-47.4) and 51-49 in Lyons (51.2-48.8), with Labor ahead 54-46 in Franklin (55.1-44.9). Each of these results is better for Labor than a 2013 election allocation would have been, particularly in Franklin (where Labor’s lead would have been 52.4-47.6) and Lyons (where the Liberals would have led 54.1-45.9). In Denison, Andrew Wilkie records 33.2% of the primary vote, down from 38.1% at the election, with Labor up from 24.8% to 27.3%. However, ReachTEL has published a Wilkie-versus-Liberal two-party result rather than Wilkie-versus-Labor, of 66-34, even though it was Labor who finished second last time, and would do so again on these numbers. The Jacqui Lambie Network’s average across the five seats is 5.3%.
Skerritt, a crypto Greens, did Shorten a favour for criticising him on asylum seekers.
The funniest thing is that the Liberals pretend angst about asylum seekers.
When the truth is that the Liberals and the Nationals want asylum seekers to last forever.
Ex-Expat
Welcome home.
Enjoy.
“No this is wrong. Malcolm Turnbull is a merchant banker not a businessman, so he will see businesses as “assets” and presumably sees government the same way.”
I agree EG. He is a glorified entrepeneur and he sees govt like a business in that it is something to takeover and manipulate for profit (in this case the profit being to big business as he is under the illusion that if the businesses profits then the shareholder get dividends) after which he can vacate the stage with his ‘job done’
Expat follower
Welcome back to Australia. Hope you find it well
A Greens MP is just a Labor MP with a backbone. We would all be better served by a larger Greens contingent in the House – the ALP included.
Nicholas
Nah. A Green MP is someone who has all care and no responsibility. No backbone involved whatsoever. In fact, quite the opposite
Nicholas
And as it is an imperfect World exactly zip would be achieved.
Expat Follower
On my mobile the text is too narrow, often two words wide. This means slower reading, and several minutes of scrolling from top to bottom of a page. Add no post numbers and finding your place is a frustrating nightmare.
Bemused – what I meant by the ridiculous meme is that the CPG justify the win as being a false one (ie that the concerns of ordinary voters aren’t the primary justification).
The CPG (like with Gillard’s misogyny speech) completely miss the point. They say he ‘only’ won because he plays to these voters’ concerns. In their eyes, those concerns are not paramount. But in an election they are! And their dismissal by the CPG shows how out of touch they have become.
The CPG (though some are beginning to see daylight) have become so accustomed to mirroring certain themes they forget all the basics that matter.
They also have two different standards by which they judge. Labor’s standard of morality is required to be higher than the Libs because of the fundamentally social focus their policies have. Libs get a leave pass on this because they are deemed economically focussed (even though the stuff it up more often than not)
victoria @ #60 Sunday, May 15, 2016 at 10:11 am
Shorten has many assets. Chloe is just one of them. One thing though. She doesn’t look like what we would expect a union hack’s wife to look like. Part of the reassessment of perceptions and prejudices about Bill Shorten that will go on in this campaign.
And the feature of this campaign, why it will matter much more than campaigns usually do, it is that both Shorten and Turnbull, in contrasting directions, will confound existing perceptions of both.
Turnbull will be shown to be a disconnected waffler who talks big and optimistically but seems to have no understanding of the obstacles and struggles of ordinary people trying to meet those aspirations.
Shorten will be shown to be a direct speaking and passionate advocate of things that aspiring non-committed voters really care about – the things that are obstructing them from realising their aspirations no matter how hard they try. Not a grey union hack defending the indefensible.
And in the election stakes, Turnbull lacks both the stamina and, especially, the discipline to hold it together over the next 7 weeks. All the polls at the moment are very good for Labor, regardless of how the Murdoch and other press spin it, because it shows Labor already almost even pegging at the starting line. Labor, like all oppositions, may be a little handicapped. But the Coalition is even more handicapped. With exactly one successful ‘achievement’ to brag about – stopping the boats – it is difficult to see how a whole election campaign can be sustained on doubling down on cruelty and brutality.
David Marr nailed that point this morning. The idea, picked up by the CPG, that MPs and candidates can undermine their parties by showing some basic humanity, cannot stay this long. Not without a flood of boats in real time. And if that happens on the Liberal watch, after 2 years of brutal secrecy on water, on Nauru and on Manus, then they will have to carry the can.
victoria @ #87 Sunday, May 15, 2016 at 11:26 am
Says it all really.
David @ 88,
I’m also suspicious that boats are being raised at this time year when it’s not the most pressing issue. It’s very east to suggest the Liberals are raising the hysteria, but Newscorp are also fanning the flames.
No, Teh Boats are being raised because, as Niki Savva belled the Boat Cat this morning on Insiders, the Coalition have a well-planned, but we’ll see how well-executed, strategy going forward throughout the campaign, to keep inserting it into the campaign and applying the electrode (electoratetrode?) terminals onto Labor’s bits and jolting them with 240V between now and election day. They have probably also got the election bunting printed re same to go on the school fences of every polling booth in the country as well.
because that’s all they’ve got. That, and the mistaken perception that they are better at handling the Economy than Labor. Which, if I were a Labor strategist, I would be advising the party to hit harder than the Gonski stuff because that is a traditional strong point for the ALP and the Economy is not and you have to try and negate the negatives, as well as play to your positives.
David Marr’s last words on Insiders wtte there are three leaders..Di Natale should be included in the leaders’ debates….the closed shop of the Coalition and Labor must to stop now.
tx for the welcome back. This to me feels more 2010-ish than 1983/96/2007/13-ish so far. I think another minority ALP govt is too traumatic a concept for me, but I have to say that even if the Coalition win a comfortable majority in the Reps… if they need Greens to pass anything in the senate its going to have the practical vibe of a difficult minority government anyway?
PS: boy is Sydney a more hectic town than i ever remembered… the traffic is mad and everyone i know seems defined by where their kid goes to school (public v private v selective if you’re lucky)
[In his maiden speech Sen James Paterson (liberal, ex-IPA) is reported as saying:
“We must make it as easy and cheap as possible to employ people.”]
That should be in every single ALP add, between the content and the written and authorised by.
The liberals are the party that want to make it as easy and as cheap as possible to employ and dimiss you. Vote 1 Labor …
With any luck this will now be the end of the chatter about this.
nicholas @ #105 Sunday, May 15, 2016 at 11:50 am
That’s the myth that the Greens are trying to project to take seats off Labor. All the while pretending they are not the same kind of political party as the ‘old parties’.
Nicholas
“Nah. A Green MP is someone who has all care and no responsibility. No backbone involved whatsoever. In fact, quite the opposite”
A Green is someone who doesn’t acknowledge there is compromise in politics unless ofcourse when it suits there politcal prospects. Like they have done with a preference deal with the Liberals.
On ABC RN Suday Extra:
http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/backgroundbriefing/2016-05-15/7408608
pegasus @ #113 Sunday, May 15, 2016 at 12:03 pm
But only two have any prospect whatsoever of being PM.
Try as much as he likes, di Natale and his party are still second league players.
“David Marr’s last words on Insiders wtte there are three leaders..Di Natale should be included in the leaders’ debates….the closed shop of the Coalition and Labor must to stop now.”
The Greens only have one seat in the House of Reps. If the Greens are allowed then so should Bob Katter (KAP) and Clive Palmer (PUP).
vic:
Spot on about the Greens.
“” I’m also struggling to see how the ALP can win without a ~15 seat haul in NSW and Qld which the polling doesnt indicate yet.””
Ask Queensland Labor how they achieved it!.
Also on same program….weekly Marginalia segment – Chisholm (my electorate):
http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/sundayextra/features/marginalia-seat-on-the-knife-edge/marginalia:-chisholm,-victoria/7386744
Boerwar,
Adrian Skerritt is from the Red side of The Greens’ Watermelon.
Expat
selective good middle ground.
I went to one.
Yes – the more Malcolm uses business-speak – productivity, growth, innovation – the more distant he becomes from ordinary voters, who aren’t comfortable with the idea that they are regarded by the government as economic units rather than people.
A mum returning to work isn’t doing so because she’s interested in boosting the nation’s productivity. She’s doing it because she can’t make ends meet if she doesn’t.
Someone on Insiders said that Turnbull dealt well with ‘Melinda’, and everyone else did the noddy thing. Well, no he didn’t. She didn’t walk away feeling reassured about her sons’ future. Most likely, she went away feeling that he’d totally missed the point, because he didn’t recognise her problem.
c@t
Labor reinstated the offshore processing centres before they lost the election in 2013. I fail to see how this makes the scare tactics of the coalition effective. If they are attempting to scare voters that Labor are more humane, that is tres weird
David @ 121,
The Greens only have one seat in the House of Reps. If the Greens are allowed then so should Bob Katter (KAP) and Clive Palmer (PUP).
And Cathy McGowan and Andrew Wilkie.
Jen @ 11.57
I hope they all keep believing that and Labor will have it in the bag. One of the reasons why I continue to be confident of a Labor victory is that I have looked at what is, not what I want it to be. I learnt back in 1977, when the Australian voters did not see the error of their collective ways and maintained almost the same majority for Fraser as in 1975, that what I think should happen is totally irrelevant to predicting what will happen.
If I were the Liberal brains trust, I would be asking the question about why those were the questions that were asked, not shrugging their shoulders and thinking that Shorten just got a lucky break. But I suspect that the connection with swinging voters has been long lost for the Liberal brains trust.
I wonder when Turnbull is going to get around explaining what happened to $70,000,000 of investors’ funds with not a sod turned in his gold mine?
Or was that $170,000,000 of investors’ funds.
pegasus @ #113 Sunday, May 15, 2016 at 12:03 pm
The Green chap could always go it alone just as BillShorten has done on many dozens of occasions. Voters turn in healthy numbers to listen to him, meet him, express their views and ask questions.
There is nothing to prevent this…other than the fear that no-one will show up.
The debates/Q&A events are staged for the benefit of the parties and their leaders. Why on earth would Labor offer support to the Greens? Why? The Greens make their living insulting Labor just as arch-Green, Nicholas has done here this morning. Why would Labor dignify the indecencies and the treacheries of the G’s?
Apparently not even a single shovel was purchased with that $70 million.
So, what happened to the money?
victoria @ #128 Sunday, May 15, 2016 at 12:09 pm
But of course they are! The Coalition, via first Morrison, and then Dutton, have conditioned the electorate to be heartless towards the conditions under which the Detention Centre system operates.
That’s why Labor has to work very hard to disabuse the electorate of this notion.
Also, the Coalition keep referring to Teh Boats tsunami starting up again because that is the area of policy which Labor flubbed. People, in general, see that as the major problem. ‘Labor can’t be trusted to handle our Borders’, as Turnbull will keep reiterating until he is Blue in the face from now until election day.
CTar1… in this day and age, it seems that a kid has to go to 2-years worth of tuition so as to ace the high school entrance exam to stand a chance at a selective high school experience in Sydney. No frikkin way i’m doing that to my kids, so it gets interesting… choose to live somewhere where the local public high school is good or fork out the incredible pvt school fees (if you lucky enough to have that choice). Its a town gone mad I tell ya!
When is the MSM going to get around to asking why Turnbull was based in the tax dodge islands for a gold mine in Siberia that never even got started. It still has not started.
There is now considerable speculation that instead of having around 2,500 tons of gold Mr Turnbull’s Siberian gold mine does not have an ounce of gold in it.
In the olden days a mine would be doctored by firing a shot gun load of gold into the mine face.
What happened this time?
Where did 2,450 tons of gold get to?
Where did the $70 million go, Mr Turnbull?
After all you managed to hoik some of the money to give advice.
What advice did you give about the $70 million?
Bw
My understanding is it was $170m.
Buy shovels? About $50m went for bribes, Turnbull got around $2m and the rest vaporised .
Do you really think the majority of people out there in the real world believe this assertion when it is put like this?
Cynicism prevails – “Broken promises, broken promises….can’t trust any of them….pre-election promises, pork-barrelling, they will do and say anything to retain power for power’s sake”.
TPOF @ 130,
If I were the Liberal brains trust, I would be asking the question about why those were the questions that were asked, not shrugging their shoulders and thinking that Shorten just got a lucky break.
Also, not running the line, as Savva manfully attempted again this morning on Insiders, that, well, of course Bill Shorten performed well because he has done dozens of Town Halls and Malcolm has been busy running the country! As if that was the only thing that separated the two.
victoria @ #128 Sunday, May 15, 2016 at 12:09 pm
Labor can never outbrutalise the Coalition on the treatment of asylum seekers. As Scummo put it before the 2013 election, their hearts are not in it. Therefore, the only thing they can do is assure the public that they are resolutely against anything that would enable or encourage the smugglers to start their trade again. And if some Labor candidates have expressed sympathy for the plight of asylum seekers and refugees stuck on Nauru and Manus indefinitely, then there should be nothing to apologise for showing humanity and sympathy.
But Labor’s policy was set at the National Conference and it is not changing. At all. Full stop.
And if the voters accept that Labor will maintain the line set by this government against people smugglers, then they don’t have to win the issue. It will be sufficient that it has been neutralised.
pegasus @ #138 Sunday, May 15, 2016 at 12:19 pm
Why are both the Greens and the Coalition so desperate to convince the voters that Labor will form a coalition with the Greens?
Mr Turnbull needs to be asked about the involvement of the KGB in his operations. Because it WAS involved in his operations, was it not Mr Turnbull.
There is no suggestion of any impropriety in any of the articles!
How could anyone suggest any impropriety in having anything at all to do with the KGB?
http://m.huffingtonpost.com.au/stephen-jones/the-medicare-freeze-will-create-a-healthcare-siberia-in-rural/
Expat
I did the one off test at a local public school – it had 19 students (not the school I went too). No preparation at all. Made it somehow.
But you’re right that times have changed.
“Someone on Insiders said that Turnbull dealt well with ‘Melinda’, and everyone else did the noddy thing.”
I thought he sounded like he was talking to the cameras, rather than to her, in spite of the words coming out of his mouth.
Is it normal to project your voice in a one-on-one conversation unless you wish other people to overhear?
He might’ve well started his answer to her with, “now, listen up everyone…”
CTaR1
$170,000,000!
Phew.
$10,000,000 in bribes?
Phew.
Are bribes a tax deduction in the Virgin Islands?
Turnbull got $2,000,000?
But he said the other day there was no profit in it and if there some profit he would have paid taxes in Australia.
Pegasus @ 138,
Do you really think the majority of people out there in the real world believe this assertion when it is put like this?
And guess who will be working their little Green butts off to sow the seeds of doubt about it?
Especially as they started it and considering the approbation from the CPG The Greens received today on Insiders for their cunning little stunt.
I’m also sure they’ll get out the bellows, powered by organic cow dung, and keep fanning the flames about it from now until election day. It’s the only FUD fuel they’ve got.
When you come up with policies before doing your homework properly, this is what happens:
http://www.smh.com.au/money/super-and-funds/the-coalitions-714k-super-shock-for-divorcees-20160512-gotbq8.html
Melinda who was doing drama 101, rather badly, was trumped by Turnbull who did drama 101 equally badly.
The killer point is this: Melinda and her cohort of single Mums will be on average 3.6% worse off under the Budget. If they are struggling now, they will be struggling worse under Turnbull.
Turnbull, who presumably earns a couple of million a year on his $200 million or whatever, will be somewhere between $17,000 and $34,000 a year better off.
Turnbull said that we all want our kids to fly. Wrong. Turnbull wants his kids to fly. Poor peoples’ kids can go and get stuffed.
Now, the MSM, ever alert and ever policy-wise might just have considered those figures for a nanosecond, considered the implications for Melinda and considered the implications for Australian voters.
Instead we got third rate theatre criticism.
Pathetic.
Bw
The company didn’t make any money but Turnbull go a bit short of $2m in ‘management’ fees.