ReachTEL Tasmanian electorates polling

A poll of Tasmania’s electorates finds the Liberals grimly hanging on in the three seats gained from Labor in 2013, and independent Andrew Wilkie going untroubled in Denison.

Today’s Sunday Tasmanian has results from ReachTEL polling of each of the five lower house seats in Tasmania, from a combined sample of 3019. The report says the poll credits the Liberals with 51-49 leads in Bass and Lyons, independent Andrew Wilkie with an increased majority in Denison, Labor member Julie Collins with a lead of 54-46 in Franklin, and Liberal member Brett Whiteley with a primary vote lead of 42.7% to 32.6% in Braddon, suggesting little change on his 2.6% winning two-party margin in 2013. The Jacqui Lambie Network would find “solid support” in the northern electorates, particularly her home base of Braddon, but has just 2.7% support in Denison and 2.5% in Franklin (this being before exclusion of around 7.5% undecided). I will be able to go into greater depth on these results tomorrow, but will be beaten to it by Kevin Bonham, who promises to publish a comprehensive overview at 8.30am.

In other partly reported poll news, Brisbane’s Sunday Mail has a tranche of state results from that Galaxy poll that provided federal results yesterday, but none of the voting intention numbers are provided in the online report. The report does relate that Tim Nicholls’ coup against Lawrence Springborg the Friday before last had 42% approval and 27% disapproval, and that Annastacia Palaszczuk leads Nicholls as preferred premier by 44% to 29%. Much is made of the fact that this isn’t as good for Palaszczuk as the 54-26 she happened to record against Lawrence Springborg in November. There will be voting intention eventually, I promise.

UPDATE: Kevin Bonham details the full results from the ReachTEL poll. The published respondent-allocated results have the Liberals leading 51-49 in Bass (54.0-46.0 at the 2013 election), 53-47 in Braddon (52.6-47.4) and 51-49 in Lyons (51.2-48.8), with Labor ahead 54-46 in Franklin (55.1-44.9). Each of these results is better for Labor than a 2013 election allocation would have been, particularly in Franklin (where Labor’s lead would have been 52.4-47.6) and Lyons (where the Liberals would have led 54.1-45.9). In Denison, Andrew Wilkie records 33.2% of the primary vote, down from 38.1% at the election, with Labor up from 24.8% to 27.3%. However, ReachTEL has published a Wilkie-versus-Liberal two-party result rather than Wilkie-versus-Labor, of 66-34, even though it was Labor who finished second last time, and would do so again on these numbers. The Jacqui Lambie Network’s average across the five seats is 5.3%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,316 comments on “ReachTEL Tasmanian electorates polling”

Comments Page 2 of 27
1 2 3 … 27

  3. Unbelievable. It seems that the SMH has sacked Michael West. Said his “skill set” is not what the paper needs going forward. Since West is the best report in Australia, by the length of the straight because he’s the only one with the guts to speak truth to power, this is an incredibly sad day. Any thoughts I had of paying for the SMH again just went out the window. This is the end.
    Funny how they get rid of all the lefty reporters. Verrender, Secombe, Horan, et al.

  9. Nickki Savva husband works for Malcolms Turnbull. Realistically she shouldn’t be giving analysis on insiders because she has a conflict of interest.

    There is nothing objective in her commentary, nothing. It’s complete partisan Liberal crap.

  10. Savva indicates dirt on Labor candidates! What about sitting Liberal MPs who are up to their necks in dirt including Turnbull himself!!

  11. Said it before and I’ll say it again. Shorten’s best asset during this election campaign is Chloe Shorten. Hopefully, we see more of her

  12. Nikki Savva definition of bias – basically said the reason Shorten did so well in the debate was due to him knowing the questions and implying that the crowd was rigged with Shorten supporters. Stated that the questions were all questions that Shorten was comfortable with – guess what they are questions that are important to Australians not just your fear mongering rubbish on asylum seekers etc (issues re Health / Education etc) It was cringeworthy

  14. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-06-17/mining-emissions-in-mount-isa-cause-lead-poisoning-in-children/4757502

    The company says scientific research supports the approach promoted to Mount Isa residents that a healthy, nutritious diet, personal hygiene, and a clean home support living safely with lead in the community.

    But Professor Taylor says he found lead with a distinct chemical signature matching Xstrata’s mining operations.

    “I think nobody’s done this sort of work before because nobody’s been commissioned to do the study, nobody’s wanted to find out necessarily the answer,” he said.

    “I was perplexed when I started looking at Mount Isa over a decade ago why there were no environmental studies of this nature.”

    …Mount Isa Mayor Tony McGrady says there is nothing new in the report and is critical of Professor Taylor’s history with writing similar reports.

    “We should not dismiss anything at all – but before people start getting excited they should understand and realise where this gentleman is coming from,” he said.

    “This gentleman has a history over many many years of furnishing similar reports to the one that he’s done now.”

    The old shoot the messenger, never believe the scientist, technique.

  15. Doctors are possibly the most respected people in our society … if they come out against the govt, it might well bite.

  17. Phillip Coorey made an interesting point on Insiders. He suggested some in Labor have suggested Labor would be wise to do another stint in opposition then to form government with Greens. The public hates minority governments and with Labor’s primary vote lagging in the late 20’s under Gillard’s minority government I can see the merit.

    It would also stop progressive voters thinking they can have their Cake and eat it too, by voting Greens and thinking they can get a Labor/Greens government. It reinforces the message if you want a progressive government you have to vote Labor.

  18. scoutdog @ #62 Sunday, May 15, 2016 at 10:17 am

    Nikki Savva definition of bias – basically said the reason Shorten did so well in the debate was due to him knowing the questions and implying that the crowd was rigged with Shorten supporters. Stated that the questions were all questions that Shorten was comfortable with – guess what they are questions that are important to Australians not just your fear mongering rubbish on asylum seekers etc (issues re Health / Education etc) It was cringeworthy

    It was also totally unconvincing.

  20. If some in labor are thinking that David (another term in opposition may be best for the ALP in the long run) then they are twits of the highest order.
    You take your chances now and fight hard to win every election.
    The country can’t afford another three years of these useless tories.
    Don’t worry about the greens, if it is a hung parliament they are hardly likely to support the coalition with their policies on climate change, company tax breaks.
    They’ll fall into line if they have to.

  21. david @ #67 Sunday, May 15, 2016 at 10:23 am

    Phillip Coorey made an interesting point on Insiders. He suggested some in Labor have suggested Labor would be wise to do another stint in opposition then to form government with Greens. The public hates minority governments and with Labor’s primary vote lagging in the late 20’s under Gillard’s minority government I can see the merit.
    It would also stop progressive voters thinking they can have their Cake and eat it too, by voting Greens and thinking they can get a Labor/Greens government. It reinforces the message if you want a progressive government you have to vote Labor.

    Shouldn’t that read:
    Labor would be wise to do another stint in opposition than to form government with Greens.

    ???

  22. $185 million program for subsidised nannies has provided support to just 60 families!

    So that works out at $3.1 million per family assisted.

    If Labor had a program with number like that there would be endless screeches about waste and extravagance, can’t manage money etc.

    But of course ‘Socialism for the Rich’ has always been OK.

  23. don @ #71 Sunday, May 15, 2016 at 10:39 am

    david @ #67 Sunday, May 15, 2016 at 10:23 am

    Phillip Coorey made an interesting point on Insiders. He suggested some in Labor have suggested Labor would be wise to do another stint in opposition then to form government with Greens. The public hates minority governments and with Labor’s primary vote lagging in the late 20’s under Gillard’s minority government I can see the merit.
    It would also stop progressive voters thinking they can have their Cake and eat it too, by voting Greens and thinking they can get a Labor/Greens government. It reinforces the message if you want a progressive government you have to vote Labor.

    Shouldn’t that read:
    Labor would be wise to do another stint in opposition than to form government with Greens.
    ???

    That makes sense to me whereas the other interpretation makes no sense.

  24. Well, we should expect that the leaders should “know” the material that questions from voters will relate to. Shorten has done dozens of town hall meetings during which the Q&A can run for more than 2 hours. He must have taken something in the order of 2,500-3,000 unscripted questions from voters at such events. As well, he has been out in public nearly every day for more than 2 years, listening to and responding to suggestions and questions. This will have generated another 2,500-3,000 Q&A interactions. He also has the benefit of ongoing data acquisition on the issues that matter to voters.

    Shorten should and obviously does know what voters are likely to ask. In a very important sense, this means he may well be the best-prepared new PM since John Curtin, who made a habit of doing the same thing as often as he could.

    If there is a sense i n which Labor is attuned to voters, it’s no accident. Labor has devoted enormous resources to reaching voters and listening to them. They are still doing it this morning and will do it every day until polling…and then beyond.

  25. One thing that was clear from the Insiders is the the CPG echo chamber is still quite operational. The show still focused on distractions rather than policy, with only Marr having a remote semblance of what the actual punters want/think.

    This ridiculous meme that Shorten won the debate because it was his territory is preposterous. His ‘territory’ is what voters are concerned with. MT’s territory is wheeling and dealing in business. Mal understands ordinary voters like I understand the effects of pulsars on light amplification. He continues to see govt as a business and not about a collective of human beings’ lives.

  26. david @ #67 Sunday, May 15, 2016 at 10:23 am

    Phillip Coorey made an interesting point on Insiders. He suggested some in Labor have suggested Labor would be wise to do another stint in opposition then to form government with Greens. The public hates minority governments and with Labor’s primary vote lagging in the late 20’s under Gillard’s minority government I can see the merit.

    This is obviously a fabrication. If Coorey has been listening to anyone making such suggestions, they will not have been from Labor. They will have been from the Greens – from operators who believe their interests will be advanced by blackmailing Labor while they hold the B-o-P. Labor will not do deals with the Greens…it is very cut and dried.

  27. I’d like to thank Niki Savva for the heads up that the Coalition have been trawling facebook and Twitter for dirt on Labor candidates and their position vis a vis the treatment of asylum seekers in Detention, to be released further down the track during the election.

    I thank her because she has made sure that from that moment on, when she showed the government’s hand, Labor can work on their response. To my mind Labor should emphasise their ‘Tough but Fair’ approach. Tough on People Traffickers but Fair on those who are in Detention.

    It would strike the right note to take to an election in my opinion.

    Then hit it every day from now until the election!

  28. jenauthor @ #75 Sunday, May 15, 2016 at 10:50 am

    One thing that was clear from the Insiders is the the CPG echo chamber is still quite operational. The show still focused on distractions rather than policy, with only Marr having a remote semblance of what the actual punters want/think.
    This ridiculous meme that Shorten won the debate because it was his territory is preposterous. His ‘territory’ is what voters are concerned with. MT’s territory is wheeling and dealing in business. Mal understands ordinary voters like I understand the effects of pulsars on light amplification. He continues to see govt as a business and not about a collective of human beings’ lives.

    It is not really a ‘ridiculous meme’. The point is that Shorten and Labor have staked out this territory as briefly so often describes. They are in touch with voters. There was no chicanery involved, Shorten is attuned to the concerns of voters and was across their concerns.

  30. Good morning all,

    No surprise the liberals are going to throw dirt. It was always going to happen.

    What does interest me is the fact the Libs are throwing it hard this early. We shall have to wait and see how the voters handle the dirt. It well could blow back on the Tories.

    It is obvious the Tories have no policy to campaign on so they will throw shit out there. I am sure labor are well aware what is coming.

    Another interesting aspect re Savva. I have not seen Insiders this morning but from what I have read here I get the impression she does not seem very happy at all with the way things are going so far. Very insightful if that is the vibe from her.

    Cheers.

  31. Very happy I missed Insiders this morning, I had enough of a bad cold, I didn’t need that Sava woman inflicted on me.
    Labor somehow has to get the conversation off bloody boats, there’s more than enough time to do it too.

  32. Shouldn’t that read:
    Labor would be wise to do another stint in opposition than to form government with Greens.

    ???

    Another Troll.

  34. Jenauthor

    Mal understands ordinary voters like I understand the effects of pulsars on light amplification. He continues to see govt as a business and not about a collective of human beings’ lives.

    No this is wrong. Malcolm Turnbull is a merchant banker not a businessman, so he will see businesses as “assets” and presumably sees government the same way.

    There is a huge difference between merchant bankers and business-people. Business-people build businesses; at best merchant bankers enrich themselves through facilitating the creation, expansion or disposal of businesses, but more commonly they enrich themselves through destroying businesses.

  35. One issue in the debate that I did not think Shorten properly addressed was raised by the question from ‘Bob’.
    “When are you going to stop spending” in the context of cutting the deficit.
    This is a Liberal meme and it needs to be tackled head on by asking where the questioner wants spending cut. Hospitals? Schools? Defence? etc.

    The fact is govts must ‘spend’ to provide the services the Bobs of the world (and the rest of us) demand.

    The real issue is how revenue is going to be raised in a fair and equitable manner to fund the necessary government spending on services while striving for ‘budget repair’.

  36. The MSM is running with boats because that is all they have to really fill their air space and column inches.

    The first week has been very low key and as far as the MSM is concerned it is all about the noise and colour. In the absence of significant policy releases from either party this is what they are grabbing at.

    Long campaign ahead.

    Cheers.

  38. “The MSM is running with boats because that is all they have to really fill their air space and column inches.

    The first week has been very low key and as far as the MSM is concerned it is all about the noise and colour. In the absence of significant policy releases from either party this is what they are grabbing at.

    Long campaign ahead.

    Cheers.”

    Exactly. I’m also suspicious that boats are being raised at this time year when it’s not the most pressing issue. It’s very east to suggest the Liberals are raising the hysteria, but Newscorp are also fanning the flames.

  39. One issue in the debate that I did not think Shorten properly addressed was raised by the question from ‘Bob’.
    “When are you going to stop spending” in the context of cutting the deficit.
    This is a Liberal meme and it needs to be tackled head on by asking where the questioner wants spending cut. Hospitals? Schools? Defence? etc.

    I totally agree. Everytime I hear one of these conservative types spruiking their “cut spending” crap I feel like shouting at the radio or TV – “ask them what services they want the government to cut “. It’s such a bloody obvious question to ask, but no-one ever does.
    I’m really surprised that Shorten didn’t do it during the debate. He was one person I thought would be right on to it – given the narrative he is running . But even he let it go through to the keeper. An opportunity missed.

  40. David

    I’ve been thinking along similar lines. All the polls suggest that ‘boats’ is far from the most important thing in voters’ minds. Best thing for Labor is to play a straaight bat at the moment. I like C@tmomma’s ‘Tough but Fair’ approach and think this the way it should be answered. Someone tell Labor strategists!!

  41. The boats do not have to be a winner. The boats are oxygen thieves. It is why the Liberals and the Greens love the boats.

  42. Boerwar

    And me thinks the public are well and truly fatigued about boats boats boats. I know I am. So over hearing it. People have the attention span of a goldfish. How can they continue to be interested in hearing about boats. My own vox pox re the five guys who tried to get a boat to Syria was let them bloody go

  43. bemused

    The real issue is how revenue is going to be raised in a fair and equitable manner to fund the necessary government spending on services while striving for ‘budget repair’.

    Well said.

  44. First question for every single Labor candidate in every single electorate when Shorten is introducing them to the MSM.
    ‘Do you support the Labor Party policy on asylum seekers?’
    Now, where were we again with Labor’s policy on x, y, z?

  47. Hundreds of overseas contractors are currently working on the Australian coast despite close to 1,000 local maritime workers looking for jobs — about one sixth of the entire workforce.

    “Families are devastated,” said Thomas Mayor, secretary of the NT branch of the Maritime Union.

    The lack of jobs has been blamed on falling commodity prices and a decline in manufacturing, but unions have said that is only half the story.

    “{Jobs} aren’t drying up because there’s no work, but drying up because the Government is allowing $2 an hour exploited labour to replace them on the coast,” Mr Mayor said.

    “The industry at the moment is going through a very, very tough time, there’s no question about that,” said the chief executive of Maritime Industry Australia, Teresa Lloyd.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-15/seafarers-devastated-by-influx-of-foreigner-workers/7414570

  48. “The boats do not have to be a winner. The boats are oxygen thieves. It is why the Liberals and the Greens love the boats.”

    Yep. Adrian Skerritt who had the cheek to enter a Labor rally and yell at Bill Shorten about boats. The Liberal strategists would have been high fiving over this guy’s fifteen seconds of fame which was nothing more then a self-serving publicity stunt.

  49. Hi all – should change my name to repatriated follower. Nice to be back after 18yrs away and in a marginal seat too as this election looms! I’m also struggling to see how the ALP can win without a ~15 seat haul in NSW and Qld which the polling doesnt indicate yet. Have always thought a ‘bare pass’ for Shorten at 63 seats or so, and 67 would be a very good result. 70+ would be an exceptional performance given where we were when Turnbull took over only 6 months ago.
    One emprical probability question someone can take a stab at for me please… with the new senate rules and a DD what is the probability that the Coalition (if it wins in the lower house) cannot pass anything in the Senate without the Greens? Just that prospect alone is a huge gamechanger. In fact it might help Turnbull more than it hurts him out there in the electorate (though perhaps not among the base).
    And finally we really ought to have a competition on naming Hilary & Trump’s running mates… anyone who can guess 2/2 by the end of May should be entitled to bragging rights as the ultimate political nostradamus!
    PS: gosh i hate this new format… is it to be more mobile friendly or something?

  50. Lizzie

    The maritime industry is not the only place where this is occurring. The public need to wake up to the fact that the objective is to bring down wages and conditions in this country. Another way in which the govt are doing this is work for the dole expanding into this faux internship.

    My question has always been that how does the majority then meet their weekly living expenses that dont ever go down

Comments Page 2 of 27
1 2 3 … 27

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *