Today’s Sunday Tasmanian has results from ReachTEL polling of each of the five lower house seats in Tasmania, from a combined sample of 3019. The report says the poll credits the Liberals with 51-49 leads in Bass and Lyons, independent Andrew Wilkie with an increased majority in Denison, Labor member Julie Collins with a lead of 54-46 in Franklin, and Liberal member Brett Whiteley with a primary vote lead of 42.7% to 32.6% in Braddon, suggesting little change on his 2.6% winning two-party margin in 2013. The Jacqui Lambie Network would find “solid support” in the northern electorates, particularly her home base of Braddon, but has just 2.7% support in Denison and 2.5% in Franklin (this being before exclusion of around 7.5% undecided). I will be able to go into greater depth on these results tomorrow, but will be beaten to it by Kevin Bonham, who promises to publish a comprehensive overview at 8.30am.
In other partly reported poll news, Brisbane’s Sunday Mail has a tranche of state results from that Galaxy poll that provided federal results yesterday, but none of the voting intention numbers are provided in the online report. The report does relate that Tim Nicholls’ coup against Lawrence Springborg the Friday before last had 42% approval and 27% disapproval, and that Annastacia Palaszczuk leads Nicholls as preferred premier by 44% to 29%. Much is made of the fact that this isn’t as good for Palaszczuk as the 54-26 she happened to record against Lawrence Springborg in November. There will be voting intention eventually, I promise.
UPDATE: Kevin Bonham details the full results from the ReachTEL poll. The published respondent-allocated results have the Liberals leading 51-49 in Bass (54.0-46.0 at the 2013 election), 53-47 in Braddon (52.6-47.4) and 51-49 in Lyons (51.2-48.8), with Labor ahead 54-46 in Franklin (55.1-44.9). Each of these results is better for Labor than a 2013 election allocation would have been, particularly in Franklin (where Labor’s lead would have been 52.4-47.6) and Lyons (where the Liberals would have led 54.1-45.9). In Denison, Andrew Wilkie records 33.2% of the primary vote, down from 38.1% at the election, with Labor up from 24.8% to 27.3%. However, ReachTEL has published a Wilkie-versus-Liberal two-party result rather than Wilkie-versus-Labor, of 66-34, even though it was Labor who finished second last time, and would do so again on these numbers. The Jacqui Lambie Network’s average across the five seats is 5.3%.
Nice to see that Bemused and I can happily agree on something.
Good for you, Bemused. Dami Im is a person with world class talent. That is now official.
From very humble beginnings – character as well as economic origins – she has truly blossomed.
She’s a metaphor for The Australian Dream: hard working, humble, full of agility, and unafraid to take on ever new and bigger challenges.
And she’s married to a bloke.
Also, she’s a practising Christian.
But wait, there’s more: she’s just scored a tax cut c/o the Budget, and next year will be able to look forward to the income-hobbling Deficit Levy dropping off. Talk about freedom to fly, and exciting times! No worries about weekend penalty rates for Dami!
Now, if only Bill Shorten could get her to sing The Internationale at the ALP’s campaign launch, before Turnbull gets his golden paws on her, we’d have the election in the bag.
Expat Follower @ 135,
… in this day and age, it seems that a kid has to go to 2-years worth of tuition so as to ace the high school entrance exam to stand a chance at a selective high school experience in Sydney.
Erm, no.
My eldest son went to Gosford High and he didn’t believe, being an intelligent, principled fellow with intelligent, principled parents ( 😉 ) in studying anything at all before the Selective High School Test. He got in.
However, it helped that he was going to the Selective Primary School at the time, which he got into also by sitting a test in Year 4. He also did not study for that test and was actually dragged out of his sick bed to do it because he had cut his foot open on some broken glass in the School Holidays prior, and, unbeknownst to us he was a Haemophiliac and so the wound just kept opening up and bleeding, until such time as he had to go into hospital for 2 operations over 2 days to suture the artery inside his foot and the sliced muscle on the outside. He hobbled in on crutches and then came home again. But I wasn’t going to pass up the opportunity for him to get as good an education as money cannot buy! 🙂
Also, a word from an insider. The school will prepare an assessment of your child and this counts for a lot too.
I’ve said it before and I’ll repeat it again. Labor can afford not to refuse to do deals with the Greens. Indeed, should one be required to form government, Labor would be better off not doing so.
If we have a hung Parliament again, it will reflect a huge swing to Labor. In another election that swing will continue. Labor will never be punished for not entering into another minority government because, no matter what us committed watchers saw, the uncommitted voters just absolutely hated it.
If, somehow, that results in a minority Coalition government, such a government will just be an absolute disaster for the Coalition. Turnbull can do the short-term transactional deal, but he can’t do the long-term relationship. Only Julia Gillard and, perhaps even more effectively, Bill Shorten can do the long-term deal. Bill certainly has a huge record of achievement here. Citylink, the NDIS and pulling Labor together after the disastrous and internally divisive 2013 election are just three examples. Turnbull is not on the same planet. He only knows how to benefit himself in a deal, not to create satisfied winners all round.
Whatever the situation, a little bit longer in Opposition will not bother Shorten when another minority government is a chalice laden with strychnine, arsenic and a goodly dose of hemlock, whoever drinks from it.
pegasus @ #138 Sunday, May 15, 2016 at 12:19 pm
ROFL
The Greens may wish it were not true.
But spend a few days door-knocking Labor-positive localities and listen to the voters. How often do they cite Green themes? How much do they heed the Greens? Very rarely. The Greens are irrelevant to the worldview of nearly all voters. The proposition that Labor will share any hard-won power with the electorally irrelevant is just completely wrong.
For Labor, it would be entirely self-defeating. For the Greens, it would be a windfall granted to the very people they spend their whole lives insulting. The Greens should understand. They have thoroughly exhausted the gains to be made by attacking Labor. Their insults are coming back to haunt them. Not only does Labor now thoroughly revile the Greens, the electorate is offended by the Greens. Just ask voters. See what they really think about the negative campaigning of the Greens. Guilt, Grief, Contempt, Shame and Blame will only get you so far. Green politics have outlived their utility.
Boerwar
Excellent questions. But of course our esteemed media was too busy doing a hatchet job on a guy who has serious issues. All because he asked a simple question on the ABC. The idea of any notion of democracy must be smashed to smitherins. It was ever thus
Boerwar re Malcolm in Siberia
The facts seem to be that there was a BVI company of which Turnbull and Wran were directors which was attempting to operate in Siberia and in which 50% of the share capital was bearer shares.
Siberia and Russia are not France/Germany where bearer shares have been used for historical reasons and are not necessarily representative of anything dodgy.
What I’d like to to know is:
– Who held the bearer shares? Did the directors know? If not, why not?
– Given the company was attempting mining in Siberia it seems likely that the bearer shares were held beneficially by someone from the region (i.e. Russians). If the Directors where aware of the (apparent) holders of the shares how did they satisfy themselves that they were not putting the company at risk of being involved in money laundering by bearers operating on behalf of owners who were a) Russian Mafia; b) Russian politicians, c) Both.
– If the Directors did not know who had the bearer shares, did they nevertheless approve the issue and if so why?
– If the Directors did not know who had the bearer shares, who did know?
lizzie @ #96 Sunday, May 15, 2016 at 11:40 am
Now shared on my Facebook. 😀
Pegasus
I have been reliability told that Shorten is unequivocal. No deals with the Greens. They will sit it out this time.
Expat@#135:
Welcome back to Malware Turnbott’s Paradise. You really should have arranged for your Dad to be a “Successful Pub Broker” descended from the Squattocracy, who arranged for his motherless 10 year-old to commute from the Eastern Suburbs flat to the most expensive day school in Sydney (NOT on a scholarship), earn the undying dislike of his peers there and at both Sydney and Oxford Universities, temporarily substitute for Packer’s idiot son, inherit 1.7m in Sydney Real Estate in 1982, marry (back) into Liberal Legal Aristocracy, and become the very essence of the enlightened Spiv-of-the-People to rescue the Ring from Gollum. Your mistake.
bw @ 12.30
I think you more or less captured it. He doesn’t really mind if Melinda’s kids fly as well. But he couldn’t give a damn either. He gave her a lecture with high level over the rainbow stuff when she was asking about how she could pay for the necessities today.
It probably won’t make much difference directly because Melinda’s type are very likely to vote Labor anyway. But it is one more piece of evidence to substantiate the idea that Turnbull is just out of touch with everybody but his own kind.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-15/tony-abbott-launches-campaign-for-reelection/7415710
chris murphy @chrismurphys · 21m21 minutes ago
Who said Malcolm Turnbull from poor family? Wealthy father.Raised in Luxury Point Piper pad.#insiders #auspol
8m8 minutes ago
Sky News Australia @SkyNewsAust
.@billshortenmp meets man who thanks the OL for backing him marrying his partner #ausvotes (@Dan_Bourchier)
Embedded image
Rhwombat
Not all Sydney. $750,000 of that was a little ‘ranch’ near Scone. Mal buried Bruce in the garden.
He still has the place.
victoria @ #158 Sunday, May 15, 2016 at 12:40 pm
He will have the near-unanimous support of every MP and candidate, every official, every member, every volunteer and every donor in every part of the country. The Greens – as disingenuous as ever – are conniving with the Liberals to prevent the election of a Labor Government. They will get no rewards from Labor for this. Hopefully Labor-positive erstwhile Green voters will feel the same way and will re-assign their support to Labor at this election.
The Greens have taken an enormous gamble. Hopefully they will lose.
Briefly
Shorten had it in one. The Greens are suffering relevance deprivation syndrome
rhwombat @ #159 Sunday, May 15, 2016 at 12:41 pm
Excellent synopsis!
Tpof
Yes, he did.
He was probably thinking of duck shooting at the time.
victoria @ #166 Sunday, May 15, 2016 at 12:49 pm
Yup. Perfect.
Bingo
Rowan
1m1 minute ago
Rowan @FightingTories
Like Malcolm, DiNatale pressers are fizzers and only has a focus on political bashing not policy. Chasing seats, not change
The good thing about overreach like this:
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/may/15/greens-would-demand-change-to-asylum-seeker-policy-under-power-sharing-deal-with-labor
is that it gives Bill Shorten the perfect opportunity to be definitive about not forming an arrangement, agreement or any other kind of understanding with the Greens.
Labor has to address the issue front on and put beyond any doubt its position.
[Adrian Skerritt is from the Red side of The Greens’ Watermelon]
I know the individual in question personally, form many moons ago,and trust me, he’s well, well left of any side of the Greens.
I was very impressed with his interjections. It really is a bunch of bullshit, the whole discourse we are now sucked into. Plenty of ALP folk know it too.
For some reason I always thought Turnbull was raised by a not wealthy single mother.
Meanwhile, those promoting business as usual on climate are now the dangerous radicals. http://mashable.com/2016/05/14/earth-warmest-april/#XihqN16evuql
More unintended consequences.
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/money/super-and-funds/the-coalitions-714k-super-shock-for-divorcees-20160512-gotbq8.html#ixzz48gngA1l6
Follow us: @theage on Twitter | theageAustralia on Facebook
Confessions
Turnbull’s mother:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coral_Lansbury
CONFESSIONS – The saddest thing about Turnbull’s upbringing was that his mother did piss off to the US when he was nine. That must have been pretty shattering (and we’re probably now suffering from the fall-out). But his dad was very wealthy when he died. Mal did not grow up in a log cabin.
I do not think it is a coincidence that the Greens and their supporters are becoming increasingly desperate to appear relevant this election.
More and more progressive voters are waking up to the fact that if you actually want real outcomes and achievements then the best and only real way to achieve that is to vote for the party that has actually achieved things.
That being the ALP.
Real progressive people vote for the ALP because they actually want progress.
Unlike the regressives who vote Green and would prefer and advocate for an extreme right wing nut led govt. simply because they believe it will help them politically.
The message from the regressive greens seems to be f@#K ordinary Australian people who would suffer under the cruel and ideologically driven conservatives so long as they can keep bleating on about their chosen pet issues which funnily enough rarely seems to include the environment.
No, the one thing the parliament does not need is more ineffective and destructive greens.
c@tmomma… not sure when your eldest got into Gosford and whether the demand for Gosford is at the same level as a Sydney CBD selective high school. I am happy he did so well , but am not sure that is an everyday applicable anecdote in 2016-7? I hope so.
its a bit challenging for us as we’re in Newcastle temporarily in 2016 and v likely to move to Sydney in 2017 with eldest starting high school in 2018 – who is coming from a different curriculum and thus might take her time to find her academic feet here (including perhaps not acing exams in the short term).
What i find interesting is that in my day the pvt schools were worth it simply for the academically superior environment, but today its the selective schools that dominate… it seems to me that ppl spend their money on pvt schools for branding in Sydney as much as anything else. $30k per annum at year 7 – or alternatively pre-spend tens of thousands on tuition prior to Year 7 to get a selective spot. Maybe its just the elitist circles i mix in lol, but the world has gone crazy!
Mike and Rhwombat… that is a pretty depressing picture you paint. I’m trying to get my head around it all as a recent returnee. It does all seem very 1%… hope the other cities arent anything close to Sydney in this regard?
It is consistent that Pegasus tries to fan cynicism just like Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party Di Natale did this morning.
The Greens WANT more cynicism, of course.
They then cast themselves as somehow being above politics, not being interested in power and, well… pure.
That they are being utterly cynical with all this does not appear to have occurred to them.
I would rate the Greens as having extremely low emotional intelligence.
“[Adrian Skerritt is from the Red side of The Greens’ Watermelon]
I know the individual in question personally, form many moons ago,and trust me, he’s well, well left of any side of the Greens.
I was very impressed with his interjections. It really is a bunch of bullshit, the whole discourse we are now sucked into. Plenty of ALP folk know it too.”
Left E why doesn’t Adrian Skerritt attend his own rally and announce his views? It was done because he wanted his fifteen seconds of fame. He would never have a platform with his social alliance crap.
He is not a member of the Labor party, he is not a Labor supporter, and he does not want a Labor government. If he did he would have attacked the Liberals at their rally.
I am using chrome on iPad. Have page numbers but no post numbers. What do I need to do?
Expat Follower
If it helps at all some filthy rich people are pulling their kids out of $50,000 a year schools because they are not getting value for money.
TPOF:
Thanks for that, I have no idea why I thought he was raised by a single mother. Perhaps I’m confusing him with someone else.
confessions @ #185 Sunday, May 15, 2016 at 1:07 pm
Bill Shorten
Colton
10:4. Being supposedly ‘progressive’ in a way that won’t ‘progress’ is regressive.
(Your writing skills have come along in leap and bounds. Well done.)
If Labor gets a House tally in the low 70s, and could form a minority government with the support of the Greens, Wilkie, Windsor, Labor will form such a government for two reasons:
1. In their heart of hearts Labor MPs know that the Greens are Labor’s best selves. The Greens are what Labor used to be before their handed their balls in a pouch to conservatives.
2. The public will rightly expect Labor to to make the parliament they elected work for the people. They won’t look kindly on an intransigent decision to force another election when a bit of compromise is all that’s needed to make the parliament work.
Boerwar… spending that kind of money is not something i can see as an option for my family lol!! But as a former attendee of one of these schools who got a good mark but f-all else in terms of eq/character/social development, i would never want to put my girls thru anything like that anyway. I tend to believe that success as a human being is far more correlated to character than marks
Nicholas – when do the Greens ever compromise? It’s their way or the highway
bushfire bill @ #151 Sunday, May 15, 2016 at 12:35 pm
You would be surprised how much I do agree with. But I’m not here to be part of a cheer squad.
Nicholas
1. Bollocks.
2. This is not bourne out by polling. The polls after the 2010 election consistently, and over a long period of time, indicated that people wanted a second election, rather than a deal.
Expat
Trying to give the next generation of your family a good set of morals is the ultimate aim.
Really, Zoomster? In what polls did people state their support for a second election?
I think there’s a lot of historical revisionism going on about 2010-2013. People were unhappy with the cumulative impact of Gillard Government blunders, and then projected that dissatisfaction onto the existence of a hung parliament. In reality the hung parliament didn’t drive the dissatisfaction.
Nicholas – when do the Greens ever compromise? It’s their way or the highway
Just because the Greens haven’t compromised on issues key to their party platform (e.g. climate change) doesn’t mean they’ve never compromised. Julia Gillard’s government was regarded as very efficient and productive in modern times in terms of passing legislation – and rightly so. The Greens held the balance of power in the Senate during her minority government, but Labor partisans conveniently forget this when they make their absurd, hyperbolic claims about Greens obstructionism. No doubt the Greens negotiated several compromises with Labor over the life of the Gillard government – that’s part and parcel of needing another party’s support to pass your legislation.
LOL Nicholas i think anyone who seriously suggests that “In their heart of hearts Labor MPs know that the Greens are Labor’s best selves. The Greens are what Labor used to be before…” shouldnt be lecturing anyone about distorting reality 🙂
Nicholas:
” In their heart of hearts Labor MPs know that the Greens are Labor’s best selves. The Greens are what Labor used to be before their handed their balls in a pouch to conservatives.”
Whatever it is you are smoking let me know so I can avoid it. I like living in this galaxy.
Anyway, the Greens are definitely going to hold the balance of power in the Senate after the election – and there’s a very good chance indeed it will be the sole balance of power. That doesn’t square at all with claims that the Greens are ‘relevance deprived’ – wishful thinking from posters here.
Labor are making reality-deprived statements about what they would do in the event of a hung parliament. In reality, Labor would jump at the chance to form a minority government with Greens support on non-confidence and supply bills.