Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

No change on voting intention in Essential Research’s budget-eve poll, which also records an increasing tendency to perceive the Prime Minister as narrow-minded, erratic and intolerant.

This week’s reading of the Essential Research rolling fortnightly aggregate finds Labor maintaining the 52-48 lead it opened up last week, from primary votes of Coalition 40% (steady), Labor 38% (down one) and Greens 10% (steady). The poll also features its occasional series of questions on the leaders’ attributes, which find Malcolm Turnbull slipping around three points on most measures since March, but suffering particular reversals on “narrow-minded” (up eight to 41%), “erratic” (up seven to 34%) and “intolerant” (up eight to 34%). Bill Shorten has generally improved a couple of points, and particularly well on “a capable leader” (up seven to 41%). However, Turnbull has significantly better results than Shorten across nine out of 15 categories, while Shorten’s only advantages are on “out of touch with ordinary people” and “arrogant”, where Turnbull’s scores are rather high.

Other findings:

• What was described to respondents as Labor’s “policy to tackle climate change which includes a target of reducing Australia’s carbon emissions by 45% by 2030 (compared to the Coalition Government’s target of 26-28%) and introducing an emissions trading scheme” recorded 57% approval and 21% disapproval.

• The decision to award a $50 billion submarines contract “to a French company with most of the construction to be done in South Australia” had 52% approval and 27% disapproval.

• As a general principle, negative gearing had 43% approval and 36% disapproval. Changes to it “so that, for future purchases, investors can only claim tax deductions for
investments in newly built homes” had 36% approval and 38% disapproval. Twenty-four per cent thought such a change would causing housing prices to fall, 31% to rise at a slower rate, and 13% felt it would result in little change.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

237 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Sonar
    IPhone, Android or Windows?
    I’m on android and Chrome is impossible. Now using Firefox as there is a hidden setting to get smaller text and so more words per line.

  2. jenauthor @ #93 Tuesday, May 3, 2016 at 4:52 pm

    Agree with grimace … the best nav tools were page numbers and comment numbers … that way, if you had to leave for a while, you could find where you were up to ‘toot sweet’ (so-to-speak!)

    Numbering, Quick quote and preview working ok with latest CCCP

  3. Labor must push their economic record hard to overcome the public perception of the LNP being better economic managers.
    Stephen Koukoulas in today’s Guardian would be a good place to start.
    They should never let up on comparing themselves with the LNP at every chance they get.

  6. With my comments on the opening page being the live conversation page I am still in support of post and page numbers for navigation of the archive section.

  15. You catch more flies with honey than vinegar

    You also catch more flies with shit than honey. (Just a simple practical observation.)

  16. You catch more flies with honey than vinegar

    You also catch more flies with shit than honey. (Just a simple practical observation.)

    …. and you catch even more with rank meat!

  17. zoomster

    Because its on shore detention. Like how it was when Labor was trying to set up a regional solution Malaysia and Timor being examples.

    Even with the Greens solution its based on the fact if they are not refugees we have the right to return them and that AS won’t want to get on boats with local centre to apply.

    With Labor until the regional solution is set up its detention on shore not offshore until that becomes a reality with off shore being dead.

  18. Remember everyone that we are not paying for this we get it for free and if it takes a bit of time it takes a bit of time.

  19. zoomster

    Maybe it would be better if I just took a leaf out of briefly’s book and say the pacific solution is dead not offshore. Its just to me offshore is the pacific solution. Regional solution is not offshore because its true sharing of responsibility not Australia trying to palm off responsibility to other countries.

    So I am sorry about any confusion I caused with my statement.

  20. According to the latest Essential, more Greens voters (88%) support Labor’s CC policy than Labor voters (76%).

    70% of younger voters aged 18 to 34 support Labor’s CC policy compared to 39% of older voters aged 55+ who oppose it.

    30% of Labor voters disapprove of changing negative gearing so that, for future purchases, investors can only claim tax deductions for investments in newly built homes.

  21. “Remember everyone that we are not paying for this we get it for free and if it takes a bit of time it takes a bit of time.”

    For some MTBW. I have not been contacted to say my full Crikey subscription will be extended or anything.

  23. JD
    If we’re talking HTML5, then technically both are incorrect and neither guarantees italics. The formatting of the blockquote element should actually be handled by a stylesheet.

  25. Maybe the hacks at the ABC should read this….

    The Liberal Democratic Party asked the office to model an increase in the tobacco excise of 12.5 per cent over four years between 2017 and 2020 – similar to Labor’s stated policy.
    The plan would see a packet of 25 cigarettes cost more than $40 by 2020, up from about $25 a pack today.
    The result the office came up with was a forecast of $47.8 billion in increased receipts over a decade – a figure that’s just $100 million different from Labor’s policy costing.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/fresh-tobacco-forecasts-puts-cloud-over-governments-budget-black-hole-claim-on-labor-policy-20160503-goktl0.html#ixzz47ZjJQjYD
    Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

  31. For this blog, I have reverted to using basic html. It will not always work, but the following seems to be OK:

    Any special formatting needs to be enclosed between the following type of commands:

    <blockquote><p> Text you type in between these commands on Pollbludger will be indented </p> </blockquote>

    The <blockquote> …….. </blockquote> pair can be used to enclose any formatting. The type of formatting is determined by the letter code pair <b> . . .</b> or <i> . . .</i> , which must be inside the blockquote.

    You can use more than 1 letter code.

    so <p> <i>. . .</i></b> should give both italics and an indent.

    I have used this on the next paragraph:

    Hopefully itallics and indented!

    Hopefully itallics, bold and indented!

  34. Having been involved in many system implementations, I am not inclined to moan about glitches in Crikey’s upgrade, certainly not to blame the ‘gerbils’*. A common cause for implementation difficulties is an unrealistic deadline mandated by management before the full scope of the project is clear.

    * And what is a gerbil? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerbil

    Murphy’s Law is absolute and ruthless, regardless of the best laid plans.

  39. For those feeling particularly adventurous, you can use any of the symbols here:
    http://www.ascii.cl/htmlcodes.htm
    Now if someone can just send me a list of codes for emoticons that would be very much appreciated.
    “Serious” HTML websites do not seem to include them.
    Why?
    Recently I was asked to provide a draft of a serous research document in Comic Sans font. I think the aim was to stop us writing in the typesetting mark-up language Latex, but I had no intention of converting all my files to .doc format for someone else to read.
    So, I searched for “Comic Sans in Latex”. The most common response was, if you are using Latex you do NOT want to be using Comic Sans.
    I did manage it with perseverance, but am not sure it was worth it.
    so my guess is, the answer here is “If you are actually coding in HTML, you do NOT want to be using emoticons”.

  43. http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2016/may/03/budget-2016-morrison-says-australia-will-live-within-its-means-politics-live

    A short time ago the Senate passed a Greens’ motion calling on the government to produce by 3pm on Wednesday “all documents created between October 2013 and May 2016 relating to the funding of hospitals in regional Victoria, and, in particular, the funding of Wangaratta hospital, including the withdrawal of $10 million, and any commitments made to the former member for Indi [Mrs Mirabella] in relation to such funds”.

    Greens leader, Richard Di Natale, said withdrawal of $10m of health funding “smacks of blackmail and payback”.

    “People should get health care on the basis of need, not pork barrelling and promises to shore up marginal seats,” he said.

  44. Millennial
    You can bet money that you will hear Scott over and over again he will miss no opportunity to mouth off.

  50. hughriminton: . @CommBank joins @NAB & @Westpac in cutting Standard Variable Rate loans by 0.25% per annum in line with #RBA cut
    #TenNews

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