Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

No change on voting intention in Essential Research’s budget-eve poll, which also records an increasing tendency to perceive the Prime Minister as narrow-minded, erratic and intolerant.

This week’s reading of the Essential Research rolling fortnightly aggregate finds Labor maintaining the 52-48 lead it opened up last week, from primary votes of Coalition 40% (steady), Labor 38% (down one) and Greens 10% (steady). The poll also features its occasional series of questions on the leaders’ attributes, which find Malcolm Turnbull slipping around three points on most measures since March, but suffering particular reversals on “narrow-minded” (up eight to 41%), “erratic” (up seven to 34%) and “intolerant” (up eight to 34%). Bill Shorten has generally improved a couple of points, and particularly well on “a capable leader” (up seven to 41%). However, Turnbull has significantly better results than Shorten across nine out of 15 categories, while Shorten’s only advantages are on “out of touch with ordinary people” and “arrogant”, where Turnbull’s scores are rather high.

Other findings:

• What was described to respondents as Labor’s “policy to tackle climate change which includes a target of reducing Australia’s carbon emissions by 45% by 2030 (compared to the Coalition Government’s target of 26-28%) and introducing an emissions trading scheme” recorded 57% approval and 21% disapproval.

• The decision to award a $50 billion submarines contract “to a French company with most of the construction to be done in South Australia” had 52% approval and 27% disapproval.

• As a general principle, negative gearing had 43% approval and 36% disapproval. Changes to it “so that, for future purchases, investors can only claim tax deductions for
investments in newly built homes” had 36% approval and 38% disapproval. Twenty-four per cent thought such a change would causing housing prices to fall, 31% to rise at a slower rate, and 13% felt it would result in little change.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

237 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. douglas and milko @ #197 Tuesday, May 3, 2016 at 7:08 pm

    Paul, that is gold!
    To let you know where I am coming from, I am militantly secular.
    However, I very much respect people of good faith in the religious/ philosophical sphere, and I would get 100% behind a world-wide petition to ask His Holiness to visit Nauru.
    It would really show up the hypocrisy. Would Nauru give the Pope a visa?

    I too am militantly secular, but it does not stop me from finding common cause with religious people.

  5. I notice that everyone’s usernames are now capitalized

    Yet if you copy my user name where the ‘D’ is capitalised and paste it into say a Word document – it will come out as a small ‘d’.

  7. I’ve just pressed “2” to progress to the next page and it takes me to the first four posts of page 1!

  8. So who’s watching the budget speech? After the appalling day I’ve had the last thing I feel like is sitting down to the circus, so I’m just going to lurk here and on twitter instead. 😀

  9. dave @ #4 Tuesday, May 3, 2016 at 7:24 pm

    I notice that everyone’s usernames are now capitalized

    Yet if you copy my user name where the ‘D’ is capitalised and paste it into say a Word document – it will come out as a small ‘d’.

    Yes, I see – as it does when I use the “quote” buttons to copy it into the preview pane. Let’s see if it comes out capitalized when I post this.

  12. confessions @ #7 Tuesday, May 3, 2016 at 7:28 pm

    So who’s watching the budget speech? After the appalling day I’ve had the last thing I feel like is sitting down to the circus, so I’m just going to lurk here and on twitter instead.

    Not me! There are enough masochists here on PB that will watch it and tell us how it goes.

  13. Now to watch a broadcast that will benefit Australia -Masterchef.
    Meanwhile I’ll follow progress on how Australia is to be disadvantaged – on Pollbludger.

  19. Whatever happens I hope they keep using the production server to test their code; it is facinating to watch.

  21. Seems to me they make major changes at 4:50 pm and then just head home for the evening. Is there any planning or is it just give it a whirl and hope for the best?

  23. First, I’m going to write to the Papal Nuncio in Canberra imploring him to ask His Holiness the Pope to visit the asylum seekers on Nauru.

    Damn fine idea. Me, i emailed the Dalai Lama.

  30. If, like me, you are/were confused by the unconventional post/page order/navigation:

    The page order is reversed. Page 1 is the latest. Previous leads to a lower page number that is later in time. Next leads to a higher page number that is earlier in time.

    As before, first visit to the blog lands you on the oldest comments and comment order down a page is still the same, oldest to newest.

  31. Of course, if you are confused, you’re probably not reading this because you’re stuck on the highest numbered page, wondering why there is no link to a “next” page.

  32. Morning all, in response to the question above the figure of 500,000 affected by the 80,000 income tax change refers to income earners in the 80-87k band who be back on the lower marginal rate
    From the SMH 25% of tax payers earn over 80,000.
    Kenny and Hatcher in the SMH call the budget ‘restrained’, and politically smart.
    A bit like what they said in 2014.

  34. High Court transcript of 2nd day of hearing of Day’s application
    http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/cases/cth/HCATrans/2016/98.html
    One way traffic with most judges trying to ascertain what Peter King is trying to say, No such difficulty experienced with counsel for the Commonwealth.
    The States and Territories did not even appear which may seem odd given the reform applies to the State house but may reflect their views as to the cluelessness of the Day camp.

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