Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

No change on voting intention in Essential Research’s budget-eve poll, which also records an increasing tendency to perceive the Prime Minister as narrow-minded, erratic and intolerant.

This week’s reading of the Essential Research rolling fortnightly aggregate finds Labor maintaining the 52-48 lead it opened up last week, from primary votes of Coalition 40% (steady), Labor 38% (down one) and Greens 10% (steady). The poll also features its occasional series of questions on the leaders’ attributes, which find Malcolm Turnbull slipping around three points on most measures since March, but suffering particular reversals on “narrow-minded” (up eight to 41%), “erratic” (up seven to 34%) and “intolerant” (up eight to 34%). Bill Shorten has generally improved a couple of points, and particularly well on “a capable leader” (up seven to 41%). However, Turnbull has significantly better results than Shorten across nine out of 15 categories, while Shorten’s only advantages are on “out of touch with ordinary people” and “arrogant”, where Turnbull’s scores are rather high.

Other findings:

• What was described to respondents as Labor’s “policy to tackle climate change which includes a target of reducing Australia’s carbon emissions by 45% by 2030 (compared to the Coalition Government’s target of 26-28%) and introducing an emissions trading scheme” recorded 57% approval and 21% disapproval.

• The decision to award a $50 billion submarines contract “to a French company with most of the construction to be done in South Australia” had 52% approval and 27% disapproval.

• As a general principle, negative gearing had 43% approval and 36% disapproval. Changes to it “so that, for future purchases, investors can only claim tax deductions for
investments in newly built homes” had 36% approval and 38% disapproval. Twenty-four per cent thought such a change would causing housing prices to fall, 31% to rise at a slower rate, and 13% felt it would result in little change.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

237 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Well, blow we down, almost back to “normal” as it were.
    We only need a flare up of the Rudd/Gillard wars and it will be as if nothing has changed at all.

  2. Display name

    Let’s hope I don’t stuff this up:
    <blockquote><i> text </i></blockquote>

    You got it absolutely correct – much more succinct than my waffling HTML tutorial.
    This is why my kids stopped asking for help with homework!

  3. MTBW,

    I was referring to your comment:


    Thanks for sharing that song with all of us!

    There but for the grace of God go !

  4. I won’t be listening! I can’t think of anything worse than listening to a Lib treasurer drone on.
    I’ll be following the critical analysis here & on twitter.

  5. Whoa! Simon Banks very angry about the Tobacco excise ploy from govt. Outright accused Libs from deliberately ‘manufacturing’ the black hole by deliberately changing the ‘assumptions a few weeks ago. Said Cormann lied to Australia. No beating around bush.


    As the Australian public waits for the budget to be revealed, speculation has already begun that this federal election lead-up will be become known as the “Facebook campaign”.

    Dr Carson said all of her research indicated that this year Facebook would be the dominant forum for politicians.

    “The Victorian election showed that for the first time, Facebook was a more popular platform to use than Twitter or personal websites,” she said.

  7. Jen
    Simon Banks went right off. Laura Jayes of SkyNews tried her hardest to put the government’s lines but to no avail. Kerry Chikka’s contribution was that Cormann just wouldn’t lie.

  8. Record low interest rates, falling dollar, the $20b black hole shown as a govt lie and all on budget night.

    Great omens for a great government. Not.


  9. DAVIDWH – If, as appears to be the case, there are going to be selective tax breaks for the well off, Labor will just have to count the dead and bayonet the wounded. It is o-o-over for the libs.

  10. I cannot receive the Crikey articles behind the paywall. A poster cut and paste a full article I have not been able to read for over two weeks.

  11. Hi All,
    After seeing the high-quality Gravatars that everyone has, I decided I needed my own.
    Unfortunately, has never heard of my email address, even though I am a paid up Crikey subscriber. Why I tried to create an account they wanted money.
    Does anyone know how why my Crikey email and password dows not let me sing in?

    Thanks in advance.

  12. Hi Guytaur,
    Thanks for the prompt answer. Unfortunately that did not work (assuming my wordpress sign in is the same as for Crikey?)
    I have just tried changing my Crikey account password. Hopefully that will work.

  13. D amd M

    Yes the wordpress sign in is the Crikey one.

    Check your ad blockers some can block scripts for passwords along with blocking scripts in the browser and popups.


    In February and March this year, the Museum of Australian Democracy and the Institute for Governance and Policy Analysis commissioned a survey of 1444 Australians on the relationship between trust in the political system and attitudes towards democracy. Drawing on questions posed in the long-running Australian Election Study, we carefully crafted the survey to ensure comparable data on most questions.

    The findings make difficult reading for Australian political parties. At the moment, the majority of Australians don’t want to vote for any them.
    In our view, the most remarkable finding from this extraordinary survey and a measure of the degree of discontent is that the Baby Boomers who have benefited most in economic terms from a period of affluence no longer trust their politicians.

    Everything is therefore up for grabs at the federal election this year because voting volatility is at an all-time high. Citizens just don’t care who wins the election anymore.

    These are fertile conditions for independent candidates and minority parties with ambitious political agendas. Coalition government of some kind is the most likely outcome.
    The majority of Australians think their politicians are corrupt and are too aligned with big interests – that is, business or unions.

  15. Joe Hockey 2013.
    What a difference when in government and an election on the horizon
    “they’re not cutting interest rates because the economy is doing well. Interest rates are being cut to 50 year lows because the economy is struggling.”
    “if your argument is that the lower the interest rates the better the economy, go and ask the British or the Americans or the Europeans that have interest rates at zero how their economies are going because I tell you what, we are now beyond emergency levels.”
    “if anyone thinks that the Reserve Bank acted today because the economy is doing really well, and Labor’s doing a terrific job running the economy, they’d be deluding themselves.”

  16. Douglas And Milko
    Tuesday, May 3, 2016 at 6:23 pm
    Hmmm. Not working at the moment. I will email the Gerbils.</blockquote
    That is nothing to do with the gerbils. It is a Gravarar/Wordpress matter.

  17. justinbarbour: The Minister today describing Manus Island as others might describe a 4-star hotel was extremely troubling. #TheDrum

  18. It’s been said before (I can’t remember by whom) that Australians care more about the budget than any other country. Does anyone know why?

  19. Thanks Bemused – I will ask WordPress. I wondered if WordPress had lost all the Crikey subscriber details etc.
    However, I now realise it is probably a separate issue. I do not have time tonight, but would really like a WordPress account that does not insist I register my own domain name. But maybe, I need one of these.

  20. The commercial banks do no “pass on” or “not pass on” changes to the reserve bank’s rate. There is no mechanism through which this “transmission” could occur, and like all other things that are not possible this “transmission” therefore does not happen.

  21. It’s been said before (I can’t remember by whom) that Australians care more about the budget than any other country. Does anyone know why?

    Because it’s always framed as a giveaway, with prezzies for everyone. And we, by and large, fall for ti every time.

    The journos tell us that one good Budget can fix three years of aimless political meanderings, lost opportunities and nation ennui (I’m serious) and that with only six weeks to go Malcolm Turnbull has come along in the nick of time to save the day for Australia.

    And in other amazing scenes, Margot Kingston has recanted on Turnbull. He’s not the Messiah like she thought he was, after all.

  22. douglas and milko @ #179 Tuesday, May 3, 2016 at 6:45 pm

    Thanks Bemused – I will ask WordPress. I wondered if WordPress had lost all the Crikey subscriber details etc.
    However, I now realise it is probably a separate issue. I do not have time tonight, but would really like a WordPress account that does not insist I register my own domain name. But maybe, I need one of these.

    It’s a while ago now, but I didn’t have any great difficulty, beyond unfamiliarity, getting onto Gravatar and changing mine when I last did.

  23. PB not too bad at present with ‘quick quote’ back, absolute date and time of posts and post number.
    Now for page numbers which I note are now part of the URL.

  24. I’ve just dent this email to Dutton:
    Dutton, “Minister!!!”,
    In my 50 years in Australia I have never come across two more odious individuals in Australian public life than you and Mike Pezzullo.
    Your statement about refugee advocates being responsible for encouraging asylum seekers to pour petrol on themselves and set themselves alight sounds just like the sort of thing Pezzullo would say. He may have put the idea into your mind or you may have come up with it all by yourself.
    Either way, it would have to go down as one of the most crass, sociopathic, disgusting and disgraceful utterances ever to have emerged from the mouth of an Australian public figure.
    I’m going to do two things you monstrosity:
    First, I’m going to write to the Papal Nuncio in Canberra imploring him to ask His Holiness the Pope to visit the asylum seekers on Nauru.
    Second, I am going to make a donation to your ALP opponent in Dickson at the next election. I hope, regardless of the collusion of the ALP in many aspects of current asylum seeker framework, people distinguish between your two parties’ policies. The ALP doesn’t seem to have quite as many people in its ranks who seem to enjoy pulling the wings off flies
    In absolute and utter contempt. You disgust me.
    Paul Hodgson

  25. With a boat arriving in Cocos, it may not be all bad framing for the ALP.

    Libs have wrecked the offshore detention program as an option by keeping people in detention for so long and either NOT resettling them after they are declared refugees, or not even ensuring they are determined as refugees or not.

    Its Liberal secrecy, cruelty, and gross miss-management that now means, as the system is obviously approaching collapse, that we could be looking at a ramp up from smugglers.

  26. So, am I correct in saying that we are not allowed to send AS boats back to their origin? How do we currently transport them to Manus Island? If possible, wouldn’t transporting them back to their origin be preferable? I’m guessing there must be some restriction that prohibits this…?

  27. AB

    Its called the Refugee convention. The practise of returning to country of origin of AS fleeing persecution etc is called Refoulment.

  28. Paul, that is gold!
    To let you know where I am coming from, I am militantly secular.
    However, I very much respect people of good faith in the religious/ philosophical sphere, and I would get 100% behind a world-wide petition to ask His Holiness to visit Nauru.
    It would really show up the hypocrisy. Would Nauru give the Pope a visa?

  29. Rowan retweeted
    Simon Banks
    10m10 minutes ago
    Simon Banks ‏@SimonBanksHB
    RBA’s decision today smashes Govt claim this Budget is about growth and jobs

    If the economy didn’t need stimulating they wouldn’t have cut

  30. Musrum

    It seems STFU is still not working. I notice that everyone’s usernames are now capitalized, but I have tried using both the capitalized and non-capitalized versions, and neither seems to work.

    I realize it is very difficult for you to keep up with the changes being made by Crikey’s gerbils, but I hope you can find time to have a look at it.

    Thanks for all your efforts!

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