Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

No change on voting intention in Essential Research’s budget-eve poll, which also records an increasing tendency to perceive the Prime Minister as narrow-minded, erratic and intolerant.

This week’s reading of the Essential Research rolling fortnightly aggregate finds Labor maintaining the 52-48 lead it opened up last week, from primary votes of Coalition 40% (steady), Labor 38% (down one) and Greens 10% (steady). The poll also features its occasional series of questions on the leaders’ attributes, which find Malcolm Turnbull slipping around three points on most measures since March, but suffering particular reversals on “narrow-minded” (up eight to 41%), “erratic” (up seven to 34%) and “intolerant” (up eight to 34%). Bill Shorten has generally improved a couple of points, and particularly well on “a capable leader” (up seven to 41%). However, Turnbull has significantly better results than Shorten across nine out of 15 categories, while Shorten’s only advantages are on “out of touch with ordinary people” and “arrogant”, where Turnbull’s scores are rather high.

Other findings:

• What was described to respondents as Labor’s “policy to tackle climate change which includes a target of reducing Australia’s carbon emissions by 45% by 2030 (compared to the Coalition Government’s target of 26-28%) and introducing an emissions trading scheme” recorded 57% approval and 21% disapproval.

• The decision to award a $50 billion submarines contract “to a French company with most of the construction to be done in South Australia” had 52% approval and 27% disapproval.

• As a general principle, negative gearing had 43% approval and 36% disapproval. Changes to it “so that, for future purchases, investors can only claim tax deductions for
investments in newly built homes” had 36% approval and 38% disapproval. Twenty-four per cent thought such a change would causing housing prices to fall, 31% to rise at a slower rate, and 13% felt it would result in little change.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

237 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. I’m afraid we still have our problem where it reverts to the first page after you leave a comment. At least now there is a new thread, we can now enjoy a brief period where it won’t be a problem, but it should re-emerge when the thread moves over to the second page of comments. The two ways around this are to go to the main page of the blog and reopen the post, which will bring you to the most recent page, or to hit “back page” and then “refresh” on your browser after you leave your comment. Apologies once again for the inconvenience.

  2. …which also records an increasing tendency to perceive the Prime Minister as narrow-minded, erratic and intolerant.

    Well I never!

    Anyway, how does my new avatar look peeps?

  3. The support for Labor’s climate change policy 57/21 is very telling. Rebadged a bit to focus on renewables and support jumps. The Neg Gearing argument needs some graphs showing cost of NG against rising house prices, rising rents and % of new house buyers and that will turn around as well.

  4. Of course the “black hole” damage has been done. It had the intended effect of casting seeds of doubt in voters’ minds over Labor’s costings. Turnbull and Morrison and the MSM will now move on to something else and pretend that their misrepresentation of the matter never happened. Oakes has the hide of an elephant so he will never apologise for his role in this grubby affair.

  5. —James Hird loses bid to have Essendon’s insurer Chubb Insurance pay legal costs—
    And they are going to pursue him for their legal fees in defending this.

    I think karma has just about run its course with him.

    A boat carrying Sri Lankan asylum seekers has arrived within the Cocos Islands, locals say.

    and interest rates cut to 1.75%

  7. LU re avatar
    its not really my cup of tea.

    Ha! But that’s the old one. I scrubbed the new one quick smart- but now to confuse matters further (in the spirit of crikey’s public beta), a revised new one…

    Nice fairy, by the way – I know a girl with that accent, and attitude 🙂

  8. Citizen,

    If the forecast by treasury is revealed to be a dud, note I say if, then this has a lot more to play out.

    Two days of Senate estimates later this week will dig deep on this if the assumptions used in the forecasting are found to be less than accurate.

    The government has a lot to lose on this and they are playing a very dangerous game. They better hope everything is lined up properly on this. There was no real need to push this issue the way they have.

    It is interesting that just five weeks ago using the most up to date statistics available the PBO prepared similar costings to those done for labor last November and came up with a similar amount.

    What has happened in the last five weeks to cut the forecast in half ? The treasury figures will be so important tonight.


  9. Karma bus/boat has docked. RBA decision means they’re worried the economy is tanking- no point waiting for federal budget to see if there is any helpful economic stimulus policies. Subs in 2030 won’t help the economy now!

  10. Given the very long election campaign period I am not sure the LNP can keep up any shock/horror they generate re. the ALP at this stage. The electors will have moved on in a week or two and not think all the way back to now at the time of the election.

  11. Dutton is an odious individual – I hope he spends his remaining days attempting to wash the black spots from his hands.
    Sadly I think he is too stupid to even be aware they are there…

  12. Bet that, for once, the banks bust a gut to get interest rate cuts out the door to prop up this govt and avoid an RC.

  13. Watching Malcolm flounder on value capture puts paid to his “I know everything about finance” meme.

    The man is a kingly fraud

  14. You reckon Warren? I just was told I needed to log in to post, even though I was logged in, then when I went to start it logged me out.

  15. warrenpeace @ #24 1 min ago

    Every thing seems to running more smoothly today

    Not for me. I keep getting logged out, and when I try to log back in I get the infamous WordPress “Too many Redirects” message.

    I wonder if the Crikey gerbils really know what they’re doing – they seem to constantly be falling over WordPress issues that are well known and easily solved.

  16. So….with the latest on the “tobacco black hole” maybe being more of an insignificant zit, a BOAT!!!!!! getting past Border Farce, and the RBA dropping interest rates?

    The song may be:

    “The Wheels On the Bus they fall right off, fall right off…….”

  17. I’ve just had a frustrating twenty minutes or so being told that I need to be logged in to post, then finding that I am able to post after all. The teething problems are obviously not yet under control.

  18. I’m not sure that a boat arriving is necessarily going to favour Labor. I would much prefer that anything to do with AS waited until after July 2.

  19. LU
    Interesting what happened with WBC shares yesterday wrt interim results. Makes me wonder what lay ahead for the banks. 12mth trend for the banks is a clear guide and I dont buy that its all due to the new leveraging requirements.
    Its a Bill Clinton quote.

  20. NAB has reduced rates by the full 25 basis points and it can’t be long before the other banks also move.

    They certainly have plenty of room to move downwards:

    “The big question relevant to the housing market is how much of the lower cash rate will be passed on to mortgage rates. The spread between the cash rate and standard discounted mortgage rate has been widening since 2008 when there was 1.8 percentage points difference between the two rates.
    “By April 2016 the spread has doubled to be 3.65 percentage points and is likely to widen further if the full rate cut isn’t passed on by lenders to mortgage rates.”

  21. Scott Bales

    That won’t wash. Whats happened our navy too incompetent to intercept boats or is it that PNG has opened a route and ppl smugglers are trying their hand again?

  22. I think you’re right Darn. Possibly boats arriving shows a government not in control. Can’t control the budget etc. It makes for a messy focus today. It would have been a gift for Tony though.

  23. I agree that the banks will be breaking all records to pass on this interest rate cut. But it might be a good time for Labor to remind the voters that this hasn’t always been the case.

    People don’t like to feel they have been dudded and the banks were very unpopular when they pulled that one.

  24. @ Guytaur – I honestly hope you’re right.

    But more likely, I suspect the Coalition will find another marginal electorate that builds boats, and pay them stupid amounts of money to build new patrol boats, with this ‘evidence’ that we need them.

    I am over being shocked at just how much will wash with the Australian voter when Refugees are concerned.

  25. The RBA decision has a lot of different aspects that play into the election.

    Rates lower a good thing for the Govt normally, but, they are REALLY low and the Libs have played the “this means a weak economy” line in the recent past.

    What does it mean for growth and was the possibility of a rate cut factored into the Budget…..that is already back from the printers??

    Will it cause a spike in house prices and how does that possibility factor into the Neg Gearing / CGT /Housing affordability debate??

    Will the Banks pass it on?? If they dont, OR they raise rates to shore up profits, i think that just may play into the Banks RC debate wot??

    All that cruelty for nothing. I don’t think that is anything but good news for Labor.

    Remarkably sad state of affairs. I hope that if the ALP win they go to the UNHCR and ask for help and cooperation on a resettlement plan and policy. I say that because this issue is just so fwarking toxic and corrosive in Australia, and i reckon its got to the point we really DO need to be asking for outside assistance to try and get around that.

  26. I may be that the people smugglers think the offshore detention policy is about to crack – so that’s what they tell the asylum seekers- get in the queue! An election campaign will not be conducive to a rational debate!

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