Federal budget open thread

A thread for discussion of the federal budget, along with the federal anything-else.

As I type, Treasurer Scott Morrison is lifting the lid on the 2016/17 budget. Discuss and argue the toss here (or indeed, discuss anything else related to national affairs).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

284 comments on “Federal budget open thread”

Comments Page 6 of 6
1 5 6
  1. July 2nd is one of my nephews 40th birthday party I was hoping it would be at his place or his fathers so I could check out the ongoing results on the ABC, but today he said they would be hiring a venue as yet undecided. so I will have to record ABC Coverage and check out ongoing results on my phone. the funny thing on the night Julia was elected his wife had a birthday party but at least that was at their place so I could duck in and check (the score).

  2. Wow! Just watched The Business on ABC24. Warren Mundine on the panel.. Did not realize just what a yellow dog liberal he is till now. He must have been hanging around Henderson too long.

  3. The was a ‘meh’ budget, except of course unless you are a young jobseeker. They have now joined the slave labour pool.

    Now correct me if i am wrong please, but I was under the impression youth wages were lower than adults because they are untrained and unaware of workplace culture the so the employer takes on a responsibility to train and guide these young and cheaper workers? Since when is a government subsidy and ‘internship’ required for inexperienced workers to gain a reduced wage job?

  4. Player One

    Don’t give in to the fascists, William! Stick to your principles – remember that you have by far the biggest and most active blog on Crikey!

    William, if you ever have to defect to The Grauniad like First Dog did ( or some other host that better appreciates Poll Bludger for what it is) I’d follow you there…

  5. People earning under $80,000 get nothing but cuts.

    I suspect Bill Shorten is going to have a cracker of a Reply Speech, and Bowen is going to be on form the next few days. Use of the above is powerful. First response is “what cuts”, covered by “those 2014 ones that were so unfair”, to which people go “WTF, wasn’t that shit done and dusted???”

  6. I don’t think there is anything in this budget that will help the government. The budget looks confused and lacks a clear narrative. I think this leaves Labor open to unveil new policies.
    It is also good to see Labor has won the argument over superannuation concessions. I still remember Australian showing Wayne Swan with a sickle and hammer ripping up superannuation, communist style. Look where we are now.

  7. And we need to cut corporate tax because????

    If we can’t can’t afford Gonski, we certainly can’t afford tax cuts fir business.

  8. Puff

    Now correct me if i am wrong please, but I was under the impression youth wages were lower than adults because they are untrained and unaware of workplace culture the so the employer takes on a responsibility to train and guide these young and cheaper workers? Since when is a government subsidy and ‘internship’ required for inexperienced workers to gain a reduced wage job?

    It transfers the responsibility of paying young unemployed from corporations to taxpayers, as well as giving the corps a bonus from taxpayers on top.

    And no doubt as soon as the bonus stops getting paid, the corps will “recycle” the young folk.

    Utter bastardry. This is not my Australia.

  9. The ALP has to address the flair of the show pony Turnbull against the dull flat voiced unionist Shorten.

    Turnbull has surprised me with his comfortable slide into the right wing bean-bag and his political stupidity.

    Shorten seems politically astute.

    But the ALP is an organisation with a confused goal. It has no longer a “light on the hill”. It has been in moral and intellectual decline for a number of decades which has allowed a self-indulgent vacuous right wing LNP to become respectable.

  10. Another observation

    The budget figures, and the PEFO, will work brilliantly for Labor. Whereas in 2013 the Abbott Opposition was happy to reject Treasury estimates because it suited them to use their own dodgied up assumptions to make Labor’s financial management look as bad as possible, Labor are very happy to use exactly the same calculations as the current Liberal government.

    If Treasury are forecasting 4% plus growth in outyears, that may be optimistic, but a Labor government that is looking to spend on national intellectual and physical infrastructure can factor in the estimates to the same extent as is available to the government.

    This Coalition government has been an abject lesson in what happens when the attainment of power and the ability to exercise it is the end, rather than the means to an end for a political party. They had a general idea that they liked the conservative way of doing things and didn’t like Labor or the Greens, but had no clear idea of the specifics.

    They bet everything on borrowing their policies holus bolus from an ivory tower ideological think tank, the IPA, getting it rubber stamped by a ‘commission of audit’ using more people with little connection to the real world and copying the form, but not the substance, of what Howard and Costello did in 1996. And all without any understanding of the fundamental differences in the drivers of the economy and of government finance between the circumstances of 1996 and 2013. For example, Keating left behind what could be regarded as ‘fat’ in 1996, insofar as he had a number of programs that looked to the future but could be cut with little pain inflicted on ordinary voters. But in 2013, in Swan’s desperate attempts to make up for missing budget receipt estimates, there was no such ‘fat’ left once the Libs assumed power. They just assumed there was because it never occurred to them to do their homework. Thus they found they had to cut harder and further than was sane in order to show some savings. In places like ASIC and the Tax Office.

    They have never recovered from their failure to prepare for government. Partly because they were always playing catch-up, partly because Abbott was never remotely suitable to be PM (nor Hockey Treasurer), partly because too many of them were just plain incompetent or, at least, lacking the skill sets for the Ministerial jobs they had. E.g, Pyne in Education and now in Industry and Science. And over all of this is the fact that they lacked political skill and imagination. Pretty much everything they did until very recently has been form copies of political plays by Howard, Hawke and Keating without
    adjusting in any way to the changes in context and circumstances. And what they have done recently under Turnbull, while imaginatively different, stand out for their lack of political judgement. Howard had exceptional political finesse and judgement – until he got unbridled legislative power in 2004. Turnbull has none. He goes with gut instinct. Unfortunately for him, that instinct might have served him in business deal making but is fundamentally unsuited for the far more rigidly constructed and infinitely more complex world of politics.

  11. On a day when Leicester City won the EPL coming from 5000-1 outsiders – and doing it by playing better football than every other team, not just because every other team screwed up – I think Bill Shorten and Labor are shoo-ins at the coming election. They certainly have the skills, drive, team unity and shared direction to whack the Coalition out of the political park. Even if the pundits expect otherwise – as they expected Leicester to fall over.

  12. Before I go to bed I must say that I think the wheels will fall off the the budget beat up before the weekend and William I do miss your graphs.

  13. Off message but as a record of democratic elections that do not follow the 17th century English single member constiturncies so beloved by Australian politicak parties, the Scottish Parliament at Holyrood will have elctions on the 5th of May.

    The latest polll of pollls show the rejection of the Labour Party in Scotland continues….

    Constituency ballot :

    SNP 50.7% (-0.6)
    Labour 21.2% (+0.5)
    Conservatives 17.7% (+0.4)
    Liberal Democrats 6.2% (n/c)

    Regional list ballot :

    SNP 44.7% (n/c)
    Labour 19.8% (+0.3)
    Conservatives 18.3% (+0.3)
    Greens 7.7% (-0.6)
    Liberal Democrats 5.5% (-0.2)

  14. Great comment TPOF.

    The way that Abbott and Hockey just GAVE the Reserve Bank $8 billion, and just GAVE UP the Carbon Tax, but kept on shelling out the compensation showed that all their talk about an economy with storm clouds ahead was tosh.

    They were like the book Raise The Titanic.

    Well, they raised it,and when they opened the safe there was nothing in it. Not diamonds, or gold bars. They’d blown their own budget.

    It’s been downhill from there on.

    Now Turnbull has an equally empty cupboard. He’s trying to weave gold out of straw. There’s not enough money to go around, no real capacity for pork-barrelling. Giving money to the $80,000-plus earners say only one thing: they’re worried about their affluent base. The corollary of that is that they’ve lost the lower paid workers too.

    Tonight was the beginning of the end. 70 days to go and no good news. The old ploys aren’t working this time. Carbon Tax, boats, and Labor’s attack on the hard working punters… none of it gels.

    That’s what happens when you continually fight the present war, with the last war’s tactics.

  15. tpof
    agreed times have changed – the poor quality of political debates and reps in country is becoming obvious – it is dangerous time for australia, we are less of a lucky country – i think labor will do more of necessary reforms than libs so i hope they get 54% vote or more even! but at end of day they are from old school – i agree with much said here on greens even thugh until recently they were object of hope for myself – so it is perplexing time – hopefully labor and greens will start a real reform of incomes, taxtes, and expenditure including health – i doubt they can get it right on education, and breach private/public divide (gonski is not enough on that front and they have been unwise to put whole effort there without structural reform —- ditto private/public in health

  16. William
    It is worth trying to persuade the gerbils to run your page the right way. It can’t be that hard to set up 1 blog differently to the rest, and would make Pollbludger much more accessable, if you knew every reply was going to stay on the same page it landed on.

    Good luck.

  17. My limited, media communicated, exposure to the budget speech makes me very confident that ALP should be able to bury the right wing crony capitalist clowns that by accident occupy the treasury benchs, by the grace of the ALP!!!!!!

  18. The new formatting is now cutting words at the end of lines that reach the side of the comment and splitting them, without a hyphen, between lines.

  19. If Cassandra Goldie is anything to go by, I guess the Greens will be embracing Morrison’s $4.00 per hour internships.

  20. william bowe @ #40 Tuesday, May 3, 2016 at 10:45 pm

    The issue here is that Crikey has control over the comments pagination system, and they’re using it to set the site up for reverse-ordered comments, and I have control over the order comments appear in, which I’m persisting in setting to chronological order. This is going to end with them either accommodating my desire to have chronological comments and setting up pagination accordingly, or ordering me to put comments in reverse order.

    William, you have a small army of followers here who are very interested in making PB work. Ask and I’m sure emails will flow to product@crikey.com.au. There is little point in reverse order comments when there are only a handful to read, and no point at all when there are are hundreds.

  21. In 2014 Abbott set out to cut social spending and proposed a temporary increase in tax on the wealthy. In 2016, Turnbot has proposed to affirm those same cuts while reducing tax on the wealthy. Last night’s budget is an even more regressive document than the Hockey/Abbott program. Anyone who may have thought Turnbot would be in any way more centrist or moderate then Abbott must surely be disappointed by this.

    Most voters will soon work out that the tax concessions are very narrowly aimed; that most have been excluded; that social incomes are still to be trashed; that the deficit is not falling but is now out of control; and that the deficit is funding tax cuts and loopholes for the wealthy.

    It is very, very doubtful the electorate will buy into this.

  22. Morning all, in response to the question above the figure of 500,000 affected by the 80,000 income tax change refers to income earners in the 80-87k band who be back on the lower marginal rate
    From the SMH 25% of tax payers earn over 80,000.
    Kenny and Hatcher in the SMH call the budget ‘restrained’, and politically smart.
    A bit like what they said in 2014.

  23. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. As expected there is a fair bit to wade through this morning.

    Will the reduced interest rate and the ungrandfathered changes to superannuation push more money into the overheated housing market? Maybe a good dose of negative gearing and CGT tax change is required.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/budget-2016-super-and-negative-gearing-20160503-golfbm.html
    Ross Gittins says this budget is political. As soon as Morrison opened his motormouth last light that was quite apparent! The last two sentences sum things up nicley.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/budget-2016-forget-jobs-and-growth-this-was-political-20160502-gojr0h.html
    Peter Martin has a very good look at what’s underneath the budget.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/budget-2016-the-coalitions-call-for-an-act-of-faith-20160502-gojr4k.html
    In a typically well researched article Greg Jericho gives all the graphs that matter to the budget. There are some heroic assumptions underpinning the out years.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/may/04/australian-budget-2016-the-graphs-you-need-to-see
    Michael Gordon says now the budget has been delivered it’s over to the “Great Persuader” to sell it.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/budget-2016-its-delivered-and-now-its-time-for-malcolm-turnbull-the-great-persuader-to-sell-it-20160502-gojpwd.html
    In a pretty lightweight contribution Peter Hartcher describes the budget as an Abbott detox. But what about all the 2014 nasties that are still in it?
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/budget-2016-peter-hartcher-comment-20160501-gojpma.html
    Here’s Lenore Taylor’s take on the budget.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/may/03/scott-morrisons-budget-is-unusual-but-not-for-the-reason-he-thinks-it-is
    Tony Wright says it’s a budget designed to be forgotten in two days.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/budget-2016-designed-to-be-forgotten-but-remembered-when-necessary-20160502-gojq2w.html
    Jess Irvine looks at some of the budget’s idiosyncrasies.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/budget-2016-pennies-for-the-rich-while-smokers-cough-up-more-20160502-gojrcm.html

  24. Section 2 . . .

    Michelle Grattan is unconvinced.
    https://theconversation.com/morrison-pushes-a-plan-not-a-cash-splash-58767
    Bad news in the budget for aged care.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/may/03/aged-care-funding-nursing-homes-cut-federal-budget
    There is no respite in this budget from the hard times the government has been giving the Australian Public Service.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service/budget-2016-no-respite-from-hard-times-for-public-service-20160503-1nvpx4.html
    “View from the Street” gives Dutton another well aimed serve.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-so-wait-are-we-closing-our-detention-centres-20160503-gol5xy.html
    Dave Donovan on how Morrison is counting on the trickledown effect.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/treasurer-scott-morrison-counting-on-the-trickledown-effect,8949
    Matt Wade on how the intern scheme is open to exploitation by the spivs.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/budget-2016-1000-intern-scheme-worthy-but-risky-20160503-1nvrgp.html
    Alan Stokes with a great piss take on ScoMo’s 30 minute infomercial.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/scott-morrisons-budget-infomercial–but-wait–20160430-goixnt.html
    Which of the tax measures will Labor accept asks Latika Bourke.
    http://www.theage.com.au/business/federal-budget/budget-2016-which-scott-morrison-tax-cuts-will-labor-accept-and-reject-20160503-golipb.html
    Could you BLAME Leigh Sales getting a bit toey with Morrison last night?
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/leigh-sales-grills-scott-morrison-on-730-in-first-postbudget-interview-20160503-golhis.html
    75% of taxpayers will miss out. And they will face big cuts in the future. There’s a lot to work on for Shorten.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/budget-2016-government-skews-prudent-tax-cuts-to-higher-income-earners-20160502-gojs2b.html

  25. Section 3 . . .

    Who is to blame for our high health care cost? The government or the doctors?
    http://www.afr.com/business/health/hospitals-and-gps/debate-is-the-turnbull-government-or-the-ama-to-blame-for-public-health-mess-20160502-gok2mq
    Nauru – We do not need to behave like a stupid and brutal nation.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/03/tragedy-on-nauru-we-do-not-need-to-act-like-a-stupid-and-brutal-nation
    How to make Dutton just a bad memory.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/what-can-we-do-about-peter-dutton,8948
    Only in (Republican) America!
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/donald-trump-links-ted-cruzs-father-with-jfks-assassin-ahead-of-indiana-primary-20160503-golir4.html
    The Parramatta Eels implode in a big way. All self-inflicted.
    http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-league/league-news/audio-recordings-of-board-meetings-at-centre-of-parramatta-eels-salary-cap-findings-20160503-gol82i.html
    Hello hello! Mesma’s squeeze has been looking at sensitive security documents. Google.
    national-affairs/foreign-affairs/julie-bishops-partner-david-panton-sparks-security-query/news-story/ad4baa1ce6aa5001137afa53a6346ab1

  26. Section 4 . . . Cartoon Corner

    Who is to blame for our high health care cost? The government or the doctors?
    http://www.afr.com/business/health/hospitals-and-gps/debate-is-the-turnbull-government-or-the-ama-to-blame-for-public-health-mess-20160502-gok2mq
    Nauru – We do not need to behave like a stupid and brutal nation.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/03/tragedy-on-nauru-we-do-not-need-to-act-like-a-stupid-and-brutal-nation
    How to make Dutton just a bad memory.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/what-can-we-do-about-peter-dutton,8948
    Only in (Republican) America!
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/donald-trump-links-ted-cruzs-father-with-jfks-assassin-ahead-of-indiana-primary-20160503-golir4.html
    The Parramatta Eels implode in a big way. All self-inflicted.
    http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-league/league-news/audio-recordings-of-board-meetings-at-centre-of-parramatta-eels-salary-cap-findings-20160503-gol82i.html
    Hello hello! Mesma’s squeeze has been looking at sensitive security documents. Google.
    national-affairs/foreign-affairs/julie-bishops-partner-david-panton-sparks-security-query/news-story/ad4baa1ce6aa5001137afa53a6346ab1

  27. Whoops! Here’s Cartoon Corner.

    Cathy Wilcox with a great character assessment.

    More good work from Cathy Wilcox.

    Ron Tandberg with the $50m retraining scheme in the wake of the collapse of auto manufacturing.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html?selectedImage=1
    A good effort from Pat Campbell.

    OUCH! Mark Knight holds up a mirror to the government.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/be6b7db8711dfa6cafe7019991cb95c1?width=1024&api_key=zw4msefggf9wdvqswdfuqnr5
    A nice little picture of Abbott.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/cbd4129f74863ab9f2e7f47b9e686586
    David Rowe takes us into the budget kitchen.

    Rowe breaks out the cigars.

    From Rowe as Morrison started his budget speech.
    https://twitter.com/FinancialReview/status/727430241539346432
    First Dog on the Moon passes a harsh judgement on the budget.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/ng-interactive/2016/may/03/if-this-budget-was-a-tomato-in-a-shop-you-would-leave-it-there-it-is-a-bad-tomato
    Send a message to Malcolm.

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