Morgan: 51-49 to Labor

Morgan’s final pre-budget poll records next to no change, with Labor recording the barest of leads on two-party preferred.

The latest fortnightly result from Roy Morgan has Labor poking its nose in front on the headline respondent-allocated measure of two-party preferred, which now reads 51-49 in its favour after a tied result last time. However, the result based on preference flows as per the 2013 election result is slightly the other way, with a 51-49 Labor lead narrowing to 50.5-49.5. The shifts on the primary vote are no less subtle, with the Coalition down half a point to 40%, Labor up half a point to 32.5%, the Greens down half a point to 13.5%, and the Nick Xenophon down half a point to 4%. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the last two weekends from a combined sample of 2951.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

639 comments on “Morgan: 51-49 to Labor”

  1. [FRENCH CJ: Well now, Mr King, I do not think we are really interested in hearing what I might call normative speeches. I think we need to hear your submissions in relation to the ways in which you say the impugned provisions contravene the Constitution and as I understood your first argument was that they prescribe more than one method of voting contrary to section 9 of the Constitution. It might help if we go to the nitty gritty rather than speeches which are best made outside this place]

    How good the CJ of the High Court of Australia has more important things to do than to listen to the lawyer put his client’s case on something so unimportant as our Constitution.

    I’m guessing the CJ has the same view as Shellbell of the lawyer in question and came with that pompous crap ready to use.

  2. Oh and another annoyance, the title of the blog entry should be a link that takes you to the start of the blog. Now I’m going to have to clink on the Crikey link and work my way back down. Yes, I know migrating sites is hard, but this is amateur stuff, it really is.

  3. Sample size for this survey is 2,951, so the Margin of Error would be about 1.8%. The sample size for the larger states NSW, Vic, Qld would be between 600 and 950 (so MOE around 3 to 4%). Sample sizes for smaller states would be too small to draw very meaningful conclusions.

  4. FalconWA, I said “some prince elasticity” to emphasise that demand for fags is not completely inelastic (not as much a chocky, as I said!). It’s too long since I read anything about this stuff to recall exactly where ‘elastic’ ends and ‘inelastic’ begins, so what you say may well be right – but you get the point don’t you? Raise the price and sales go down enough to keep the AMA happy and revenue goes up enough to keep Treasury happy.

  5. Labor just has to say that it prefers the PBO number because it is less political.

    No, Labor wouldn’t want to do that because it leaves a permanent attack line about a budget black hole in whatever they come up with. Just accept the same figures that the government are using and move on.

  6. JACKOL – If that’s an option, yes, you’re right. My point is that most punters don’t get caught up in all of this stuff. If they did, the Libs would never have been elected in 2013.

  7. [WWP _ You’ve never met Peter King, have you?]

    No but I’ve not met the Chief Justice either but consider that kind of rubbish from judges as right deserving of condemnation and one of the just causes for people to dislike the judges and lawyers. IMHO that kind of pompous rubbish from the bench is indulged in far too often and far too widely and is frankly unprofessional and brings the whole justice system into disrepute.

    If ever there was a time for professional patience and a lack of unnecessary pompous crap I would have thought it would be in an important (no matter how doomed to failure the it is) constitutional case.

  8. In order to win the election the Liberals will have to get the punters to believe that after two Prime Ministers and Two Treasurers, a dozen ministers, chronic failure, and 3 years in government they’ve finally got right with 6 weeks to go.

    Whew!

  9. [No, Labor wouldn’t want to do that because it leaves a permanent attack line about a budget black hole in whatever they come up with. Just accept the same figures that the government are using and move on.]

    A strategy that worked so well with ‘you can call it a carbon tax if you want’ that I’m surprised anyone would ever suggest it again.

  10. This blog is becoming a waste of time.

    Too hard to navigate.

    Will come back some time when the bugs are gone – if ever

  11. I must confess my post mocking the Border Force criminals was made before I had seen the project tonight, and I was unaware of the claims that the last person to set t]themselves on fire was left untreated for a long time.
    That is a new low for even the scum in border protection, there should be a royal commission.

  12. 4 Corners covering what we all know about neg gearing, that it cuts young people out of the market in favour of investors. Labor are on real winner here, I hope if they win government they go in even harder.

  13. Seeing Mr King in action in the High Court today brought to mind the observation of Sir Owen Dixon that you can turn a lawyer into a politician, but reconversion is impossible.

  14. [Seeing Mr King in action in the High Court today brought to mind the observation of Sir Owen Dixon that you can turn a lawyer into a politician, but reconversion is impossible.]
    I’m pretty unsure that sits somewhat uncomfortably with the history of our High Court.

  15. Jack A Randa. I do get the point and I agree that cigarettes are price inelastic. I am also assuming that the PBO and Treasuary have factored that in so as many have said unless you can see the assumptions the fact that there are different outcomes means nothing.
    As to who you would trust, the Treasuary forecasts over the past decade don’t inspire one with a lot of confidence.

  16. [Seeing Mr King in action in the High Court today brought to mind the observation of Sir Owen Dixon that you can turn a lawyer into a politician, but reconversion is impossible.]
    If only there were some body that registered lawyers and made sure that incompetent ones couldn’t work.

  17. Mikehilliard
    4 Corners covering what we all know about neg gearing, that it cuts young people out of the market in favour of investors. Labor are on real winner here, I hope if they win government they go in even harder.

    That was a great 4Corners episode – The Liberals should be worried when an entire generation of voters is actively hoping there is a housing market crash!

  18. [ As to who you would trust, the Treasuary forecasts over the past decade don’t inspire one with a lot of confidence. ]

    I had a similar thought. And the way that the Fibs have bagged the forecasts out of treasury over the last few years…….

  19. WeWantPaul
    If only there were some body that registered lawyers and made sure that incompetent ones couldn’t work.

    Or even more radical – ethical and honest.

  20. The difference in revenue seems to be assumptions on the success of Labor’s anti smoking initiatives. The Liberals seem to be assuming Labor has done a great job and smoking will fall faster than Labors assumes. Hardly something Labor should be ashamed of.

  21. Frednk
    “The difference in revenue seems to be assumptions on the success of Labor’s anti smoking initiatives. The Liberals seem to be assuming Labor has done a great job and smoking will fall faster than Labors assumes. Hardly something Labor should be ashamed of.”

    Yet again the triumph of political games calling over policy objectives and achievements.

  22. frednk @ #300 4 mins ago

    The difference in revenue seems to be assumptions on the success of Labor’s anti smoking initiatives. The Liberals seem to be assuming Labor has done a great job and smoking will fall faster than Labors assumes. Hardly something Labor should be ashamed of.

    Testing

  23. Doyle
    Yep, and looking at those debt v interest rate figures the housing market seems to be on a knife edge. + 1% could make the difference.

  24. TPOF
    Yet again the triumph of political games calling over policy objectives and achievements.

    That has been the essence of the Abbott and Turnbull Governments – what games will most successfully trick the public into voting for them – they sure as hell don’t have any policy offerings.

  25. Mikehilliard – it was amusing to watch the Property Council continue to insist that property speculation is NOT driving up housing prices.

  26. [Mr Kirby describes as “unacceptable” the fact no “adequate” privacy laws exist anywhere in Australia, saying in a speech in Sydney he has been fighting for them for 40 years.]
    Do retired judges not get to remain ‘Justice Kirby’, serious question I don’t know the answer.
    I agree completely though, the nature and extent of the right to privacy should be made explicit and the criminal and civil outcomes clearly defined. At the moment you have a very unattractive hodge podge of criminal laws being stretched to deal with privacy issues, and there being no ‘right to privacy’ benchmark to guide debates on things like metadata retention.

  27. William, when I try to navigate to page 1, by clicking on the number 1, I get page 6.

    I can get page 2 and later, but not page 1.

  28. Apart from James Fallows, QandA is terrible. Laura Tingle is still full of Mal hope – especially againt ‘street fighter’ Bill Shorten.

  29. WWP, French CJ is one of the most courteous judges I have ever met – but he has a sharp brain and doesn’t like the Court’s time being wasted. If you read what he was saying to Peter King again, he was basically saying ‘I already warned you (in the directions hearing) that we don’t want waffle but want to hear the actual constitutional arguments, so cut the waffle and get on with specific and relevant constitutional arguments’. Which King then tried to do, but not very well. He is a natural-born pompous waffler – read some of the rest of what he said.

  30. I had my computer turned off for a while and when I turned it on again it was as if time had stood still. The most recent post was only “one minute ago” when the computer had been turned off for over an hour. Things only returned to normal when I posted a comment a few minutes ago.

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