Morgan: 51-49 to Labor

Morgan’s final pre-budget poll records next to no change, with Labor recording the barest of leads on two-party preferred.

The latest fortnightly result from Roy Morgan has Labor poking its nose in front on the headline respondent-allocated measure of two-party preferred, which now reads 51-49 in its favour after a tied result last time. However, the result based on preference flows as per the 2013 election result is slightly the other way, with a 51-49 Labor lead narrowing to 50.5-49.5. The shifts on the primary vote are no less subtle, with the Coalition down half a point to 40%, Labor up half a point to 32.5%, the Greens down half a point to 13.5%, and the Nick Xenophon down half a point to 4%. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the last two weekends from a combined sample of 2951.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

639 comments on “Morgan: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Puff
    It’s hard to believe Oakes didn’t know what was going on. I can only conclude he knew what role he was playing and he played it willingly. Scum.

  2. I’ve got the feeling the Karma bus has arrived at Coalition HQ today! 8 weeks is a long time to sell a melon and Morrison is no economic salesperson.

  3. Paddy O

    You must have missed the front page of the Daily Telegraph.

    Front page pic of Morrison with caption wtte. The Fixer

  5. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/03/peace-matters-to-women-helen-clark-launches-campaign-to-lead-un
    [New Zealand’s former prime minister Helen Clark has started her campaign to become the first woman to lead the United Nations, saying in Paris that “peace really matters to women”.

    She and three other women are among the nine candidates so far in the running to succeed Ban Ki-moon of South Korea as secretary general.

    Given an unwritten rule of regional rotation to fill the post, Clark may be at a disadvantage being from the same Asia-Pacific region as Ban.]

  8. [re Oake’s revelation over ciggy taxes. pathetic non-issue dressed up as a game changer.
    Are the members of the CPG really as fwarking stupid as the appear to be, or am i just bluddy smart?]

    Simple. The fix is in, and the more worried that they get, the more obvious it will become.
    Were they safely convinced of victory they wouldn’t need to be quite so blatant. But they’re obviously not, so there’s no time for the pretense of objectivity.

    Like the picture of Morrison on the front page of the Telegraph, looking as vaguely human as is possible, with the caption: Mr Fixer.

  11. “This morning I saw a side of Penny Wong I have never seen before,” he said.
    Having seen Wong tear apart a few hapless Liberal senators in public, I imagine that was a very unpleasant meeting for Dastyari.

  12. Jonathan Green: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-03/green-it's-on-us:-the-real-world-consequences-of-our-politics/7375436

    Politics is not a game, but there is safety in numbers.

    Safety when the numbers speak of a mute but stubborn popular consensus, a consensus that will accept self-immolation as the almost unremarkable consequence of tough-minded necessity. A man’s sickeningly agonised end met with a bi-partisan blinking at the horror of it and then, as quickly, a resolute turning away.

    But then all of that is of a part with a policy that seeks, at its core, to sweep this issue from sight; that prefers a simple, albeit grotesquely expensive and necessarily cruel roadblock to complex regional negotiation; that characterises the problem of refugee dislocation as a war on the petty criminality of people smuggling, confusing – with utterly cynical intent – the means by which the problem is delivered with the problem itself.

    And the politics here is not a game, the politics milks the nonchalant acquiescence of the Australian majority, realises with a schooled sense of knowing, that the bulk of us would rather that these people simply melted away into some tropical shadow than have us face their need and the yawning disparity between our comfort and their desperation. With our silence, with our decades of votes that have urged brick after brick in that watery wall, we give it all our blessing, from turn-backs, to detention, and the madness that protracted aimlessness brings.

  13. Puff, The Magic Dragon.
    #678 33 mins ago
    I wonder what the asylum seekers we have dumped in camps are going to have to do to get the Australian people, the voters not the parties, to realise they are human beings with real feelings who are really hurting and damaged and dying caused by our attitudes and fears?

    Sadly, these humans have been thoroughly objectified. They are no longer individuals in the eyes of most on-lookers. They are political trophies – objects of exile, shame and despair. Of course, there are many who avert their gaze, who do not look and wish only for the onset of amnesia. This is the debauchery of the LNP and the pimping chicanery of the G’s, come home to condemn us.

  14. Jenauthor

    9 mins ago
    So court reserves decision on Day’s senate petition … will this endanger July 2 date & AEC preparedness?

    I have another question for those more learned than myself. Is there a provision in the constitution for an election to be cancelled or postponed once the caretaker period has commenced? I’m thinking of some drastic natural or man-made catastrophe that would make it difficult to hold an election on the date specified. However, is it possible for Turnbull to approach Cosgrove to delay the election if, for example, polling showed the coalition losing significant support during the campaign? I’m not sure what excuse Turnbull would use but I’m sure his brains trust would think of something.

    The precedent of course is when Cosgrove recently agreed to the use of an obscure constitutional provision to facilitate a DD by way of recalling Parliament just to create a DD trigger through rejection of the ABCC bill.

  15. Wonderful commentary from Jonathan Green. I hope that the numbskulls from ABC radio news read it among others.

  16. I had missed this bit of news re Stuart Robert MP

    SACKED Gold Coast federal cabinet minister Stuart Robert secretly bankrolled the campaigns of three independent council candidates on the Gold Coast, fuelling calls for his disendorsement by the Liberal National Party on the eve of the federal election, according to a report in The Australian today.

  20. BK
    Re Pruneface avatar, I will give it due consideration. ….hmmm. just been consigned to where I hope he will be after the election,The dustbin

  21. Adrian
    #690 18 mins ago

    Simple. The fix is in, and the more worried that they get, the more obvious it will become. Were they safely convinced of victory they wouldn’t need to be quite so blatant. But they’re obviously not, so there’s no time for the pretence of objectivity.

    Tax will be a loser for the LNP at this election. They have got everything wrong. Let them talk as much as they like about revenue and expenditure. Though they will try not to, inevitably they will indemnify Labor. The more they talk of tax the more they will remind voters of their preference for inequity.

  22. Wakefield
    Labor retains a two-party preferred lead of 52%-48%, with its primary vote down a point to 38%, the Coalition steady on 40% and the Greens also steady on 10%.

  23. SkyNewsAust
    .@Kieran_Gilbert says the govt’s tax cuts to SMEs blunts Labor’s claim that they are only looking after the rich http://snpy.tv/1SHWR4a

    Sky News Australia
    2h2 hours ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    .@David_Speers says the budget will narrow the philosophical differences between two parties #pvonewsday #budget2016 http://snpy.tv/1THbDHd

  24. adrian,

    There is a little bit of doubt creeping in this afternoon re the reliability of the governments forecast on the tobacco excise.

    It will be so important to dig into the detail behind the assumptions used in the Treasury modelling.

    The government has made such a big issue of this today. Have they over reached ?

    Tonight we shall see.

    Cheers.

  27. Finally, someone in the MSM exposes the “black hole” claim:

    Modelling of higher tobacco taxes completed just five weeks ago by the independent Parliamentary Budget Office has placed a question mark over the Turnbull Government’s budget-eve claim of a “black hole” in Labor’s policy costings.

    The Liberal Democratic Party asked the office to model an increase in the tobacco excise of 12.5 per cent over four years between 2017 and 2020 – similar to Labor’s stated policy.
    The result the office came up with was a forecast of $47.8 billion in increased receipts over a decade – a figure that’s just $100 million different from Labor’s policy costing.

    The costing for the Liberal Democrats, obtained by Fairfax Media, was delivered by the office on March 24 and used the most up-to-date tobacco consumption figures.

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/fresh-tobacco-forecasts-puts-cloud-over-governments-budget-black-hole-claim-on-labor-policy-20160503-goktl0.html#ixzz47YsV0XKI

  29. I think Fairfax started twigging last night. For a short time, after Oakes’ report, they had the same $20B blowout headline, but it quickly disappeared, with comment on it left buried in another article and heavily qualified.

  30. DisplayName

    Why do you think I was pissed off with the ABC. Usually they are the conservative ones holding back on reporting until they are sure of the content. Not this time. They went in boots and all to spruik for the coalition just in time for budget

  31. Tax cuts to small business are once again a lot of hot air.

    The majority of small business is not incorporated but run as sole traders or partnerships.

    Those that are incorporated would get little joy out of a 1 per cent decrease in company tax given their relatively small turnovers. For example a small business with three hundred thousand dollar taxable turnover would get $3000 a year relief. Not enough to hire extra staff so the growth and jobs mantra is thrown ou

    It is all about appearance for this government.

    Cheers.

  32. raaraa @ #654 1 hour ago

    don @ #560 19 hours ago

    I have solved time travel! I posted a reply to Dave’s post before he posted it!

    Don
    5 mins ago
    Dave
    4 mins ago
    kenny – words fail me –

    Can you send me a message to a year ago to put a bet on Leicester City?

    Yes, but you wouldn’t have believed me then anyway!

  35. briefly @ 3 hours ago

    Even on tax – for decades a useful LNP hammer – Labor will have the ascendancy in this election.
    The LNP really are the worst, most ineffectual and incompetent government in living memory.

    And without doubt the most malevolent. Barely disguised totalitarian thugs.

    How things might have turned out if Abbott had been handed a slightly less independent senate is not a pleasant thought.

    Whatever people may say about the current crop of cross-benchers, they did their job well enough.

  36. I’ve sent two emails over the last two days to Crikey. Apologies to fellow Bludgers for the frustration coming though.

    Hi Crikey,

    More problems on Poll Bludger via mobile. Comments now run newest to oldest, there are still no comment or page numbers, refresh takes me to the latest comment, not where I am up to.

    For fucks sake don’t you people test these things before they go up? You are into week 2 of the upgrade debacle. These are not teething issues, they are a debacle for which the fault lies ENTIRELY at the feet of piss poor management.

    I am a paying paying subscriber BTW.

    Kind regards

    Good afternoon Crikey,

    Some requests for Poll Bludger, we need:
    – Comment numbers
    – Page numbers
    – Comments to run in chronological order
    – Definately NO nested comments
    – Graphs back alongside the comments

    I really don’t know how hard the first two could be and I don’t know why it’s not fixed yet. There is user guy on Poll Bludger who has setup CCCP to do the first two above, so it’s really not hard.

    Whatever manager(s) are responsible for the debacle of the Crikey “upgrade” need to be sacked.

    Kind Regards

  39. I have been travelling o/s since the updated PB started. I have only been able to use my iPad in that time. Only using Safari with no cccp or any other adddons. Now have everything working fine except for comment numbers. Never had any of the formatting issues.
    Sometimes jumps around pages but with page numbers available no problem getting back to right page, then finger scrolling to get where I want to be.
    Even at home I mainly use the iPad for PB, but will check out Firefox when I get home.

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