Morgan: 51-49 to Labor

Morgan’s final pre-budget poll records next to no change, with Labor recording the barest of leads on two-party preferred.

The latest fortnightly result from Roy Morgan has Labor poking its nose in front on the headline respondent-allocated measure of two-party preferred, which now reads 51-49 in its favour after a tied result last time. However, the result based on preference flows as per the 2013 election result is slightly the other way, with a 51-49 Labor lead narrowing to 50.5-49.5. The shifts on the primary vote are no less subtle, with the Coalition down half a point to 40%, Labor up half a point to 32.5%, the Greens down half a point to 13.5%, and the Nick Xenophon down half a point to 4%. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the last two weekends from a combined sample of 2951.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

639 comments on “Morgan: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. It’s quite revealing the amount of barbarity and inhumanity that we will tolerate as a society in the name of protecting our borders.
    And most of the highly paid MSM journalists play along as if it was happening in another, foreign country.
    Come to think of it, if it were happening elsewhere they’d be all over it, particularly if it was happening to white folks, or heaven forbid, Aussies.

  3. I saw something yesterday that made me realise that the budget will contain some huge poison pills for the Coalition. It won’t be announced, but there are still some parts of the 2014 budget measures that have survived and will still be booked as savings by this budget on the assumption that they will be passed (as happened in 2015 as well).

    If I recall correctly, these include measures relating to an extra weeks wait for the dole, reduced family tax benefit payments and higher fees for uni students in a deregulated uni market.

    While the article I saw concentrated on the sleight of hand aspect of booking these savings/additional revenues when they had not passed before and had no prospect of passing again unless the coalition won and had a compliant Senate, it has only just struck me now that the Coalition is actually going to the election with these measures as part of its election platform.

    If Labor is astute enough, and everything I’ve seen so far suggests it is, it will have a great time telling the less well paid that these hugely unpopular measures are part of the government’s policy. It will enable Labor to institute the mother of scare campaigns (if one accepts the CPG definition of a Labor scare campaign as telling the public exactly what is happening).

  5. I have gone back in time to 17 hours ago, so I’m hoping that posting this gets me back to William’s link on the first page…

  6. Morning all.
    What the people want is the government to shut-up… pay for education, pay for health, do what they’re supposed to do to assist the states AND fix the bloody budget. Whoever promises to do that (with the least questionable assumptions) will win. Simple.
    No hysteria, no carry on, no spittle. Calm, considered and easy to follow is the way to go.

  8. I saw something yesterday that made me realise that the budget will contain some huge poison pills for the Coalition. It won’t be announced, but there are still some parts of the 2014 budget measures that have survived and will still be booked as savings by this budget on the assumption that they will be passed (as happened in 2015 as well).

    Yup. Plays right back into the “unfairness” meme that the Coalition established in 2014. FFS……….how did the Coalition let it happen that people are STILL talking about the Budget of 2 years ago??? Major Fwark UP, come on down.

  9. No hysteria, no carry on, no spittle.

    Ummmmmmmm……….you do realise that with Barnyard and ScoMo the Shouty Hard Man involved that just aint gunna happen??

    Particularly the spittle bit.

  10. K17—It’s gotta be a mug-shot. I’m wondering what William was arrested for.
    Going by the mugshot…. skateboarding through a library? Loitering around public amenities (with a spray can)?

  11. Thanks to those who pointed me to the right place – I have my avatar back and feel like a real live contributor again.

    Agree with TPOF – the leftovers offer Labor a clear opportunity to hammer the LNP; not to mention the inevitable ideological and nasty things they will have buried in the budget; they cannot help themselves.

  12. olivialeeming: High Court challenge against Senate voting reforms has been adjourned. Decision could be as early as this week @2GBNews @NewsTalk2UE

  15. Dr Sarah Mares is a child and family psychiatrist and in 2014 was consultant to the Australian Human Rights Commission National Inquiry into Children in Detention.

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/03/tragedy-on-nauru-we-do-not-need-to-act-like-a-stupid-and-brutal-nation

    The death this week of Omid, a young refugee held on Nauru, brought feelings of sadness but also great anger. News that a second refugee, a young Somali woman, has self-immolated and is fighting for her life in a Brisbane hospital only adds to this. These are tragic, entirely predictable and preventable consequences of our harsh border protection policies. It absolutely shames us as a people and a community.

    The stubborn and divisive repetition of slogans about tough border protection and deaths at sea fails to justify the bribing of our neighbours and deliberate destruction of the lives of those who have sought asylum here. It is long past time for a bipartisan solution.

    I am a child psychiatrist. I have visited families held in detention on and offshore and have seen lives diminished and destroyed as a consequence. I have also worked in child protection and know how much we invest in supporting families, in protecting Australian children from exposure to violence and neglect and in reducing family and sexual violence. But these refugee children, these people seem to be different, not entirely dispensable but almost, used by successive governments as deterrence.

    They are hostage to our brutal domestic politics, the children unable to gain the safety their parents sought for them, at risk, held in inadequate and harsh environments, with despairing, desperate and now dying adults.

    Trauma and despair are contagious.

  17. On the poison pill aspect, Labor has to be especially careful in its costings to make it clear that the blocked savings will be dropped.

  23. imacca @ #589 21 mins ago

    No hysteria, no carry on, no spittle.

    Ummmmmmmm……….you do realise that with Barnyard and ScoMo the Shouty Hard Man involved that just aint gunna happen??
    Particularly the spittle bit.

    🙂

  26. Diogenes,

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-03/senator-sam-dastyari-apologises-for-adelaide-sledge/7379000

    New South Wales senator Sam Dastyari has apologised on commercial radio after comments he made in Parliament suggesting he felt sorry for Liberal senator Cory Bernardi because he lives in Adelaide.

    Senator Dastyari’s comments were criticised by South Australian Treasurer Tom Koutsantonis on 891 ABC Adelaide this morning, who said the remarks were not a reflection of what the federal ALP thought of South Australia.

    Senator Dastyari has since apologised on 5AA radio, tweeting he would be “bringing some humble pie” and that he had been told by Labor South Australian senator Penny Wong not to “mess with Adelaide”.

    He told 5AA he had “copped it” from Senator Wong.

    “This morning I saw a side of Penny Wong I have never seen before,” he said.

  30. pegasus @ #595 9 mins ago

    Vale NSW Greens MP John Kaye.
    Tributes from all sides of politics.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-03/nsw-greens-mp-john-kaye-aged-60/7378390

    NSW Greens MP John Kaye, described as a man of “enormous principle, energy and commitment”, has died after being diagnosed with cancer.
    The Upper House is expected to be adjourned today as a mark of respect for Dr Kaye.

    Vale John Kaye.
    A late stage cancer diagnosis is always fearful.

  32. don @ #560 19 hours ago

    I have solved time travel! I posted a reply to Dave’s post before he posted it!

    Don
    5 mins ago
    Dave
    4 mins ago
    kenny – words fail me –

    Can you send me a message to a year ago to put a bet on Leicester City?

  33. [53 for me. Of course all these high scores may affect the average!!]
    Stumbled badly on Q1 but had you in my sights the whole way just failing to catch you with 52!]

  34. So court reserves decision on Day’s senate petition … will this endanger July 2 date & AEC preparedness?

    I reckon the AEC will just keep on keeping on with their prep for July 2.

  36. I wonder what the asylum seekers we have dumped in camps are going to have to do to get the Australian people, the voters not the parties, to realise they are human beings with real feelings who are really hurting and damaged and dying caused by our attitudes and fears?

    This self-burning was predictable. But the only way there will be a change is if the Australian public stops punishing a political party every time they show so much as a glimmer of compassion towards a boat arrival. I blame this on Howard, the little racist, and the Murdoch media who propagated the naturals fears in people. Julia Gillard was villified because she tried to find an humane solution and awas actively prevented from doing so by vested interests.

    Until boat asylum seekers are no longer pawns in political games, we will see self-burnings and worse continue.

    The thought that the man who set himself on fire was deliberately kept in agony for hours without treatment, probably to discourage copycats, is sickening to the max, and i want to see people in gaol for it, and Peter Dutton charged and behind bars for crimes against humanity,

    If i could, I would charge some Greens too, for opposing the Malaysia plan.

  38. 51 for me. As I was once told in uni, if you get 50% your doing ok, if you get 51% you’ve worked too hard. In hindsight, it was bad advice.

  40. rhwombat @ #504 2 hours ago

    William/Musrum
    I have dutifully whinged to the Gerbils, and give thanks for the Return of the Gravatars and other WB/Musrum sourced goodies on PB, but I seem unable to download CCCP using the supplied instructions.
    Being a tech-challenged marsupial tank of very little brain, I’m PBing on a MacBook Pro running OS X El Cap 10.11.4, using the supplied Safari v9.1 as a browser. I note that other Mac users, like Don, seem to have access to comments and page numbers, and am enviously pressing my broad nose on the glass to ask for help.

    I am also a bear of very little brain, but I struggle on as best I can.

    Use the links below.

    After installing Grease Monkey or Tamper Monkey, click on the CCCP link to what is called the Greasy Fork.

    Keep clicking on various install and update buttons (there are two pages which show up alternately) until finally one button says reinstall. At that point it has been installed, and you can make your way back to PB.

    In fact getting back to PB is harder than anything else these days, or at least to the latest posts!

    To use the Crikey Clear Comment Preview script, install in order:
    Firefox
    Greasemonkey
    cccp
    or:
    Google Chrome
    Tampermonkey
    cccp

  42. bk @ #582 27 mins ago

    gecko
    The quiz results so far demonstrate how “unaverage” we are at PB.

    What quiz, please? I am a sucker for those things. I must have given Facebook such a good profile of me, trying to find out what my fairy princess name is, which character I am in Shakespeare plays, what is my animal spirit.

  43. cccp v 5.33
    // Fix broken crickey Pt6(removed comment navigation and comment numbers)

    I’m going to wait for thing to stabilise before I try to put these features back in. As it stands cccp is just making a bad thing worse.

  47. re Oake’s revelation over ciggy taxes. pathetic non-issue dressed up as a game changer.
    Are the members of the CPG really as fwarking stupid as the appear to be, or am i just bluddy smart?

    Maybe both? 😆

  49. And now that I can see my comments, in fact, now that they are finally being accepted, may I just say that this is simply a Budget borne of electoral not economic necessity. The Coalition have dressed up some of their old policies in new clothes and are parading them around hoping no one will notice, like the Infrastructure/Cities program, and attempting to outflank Labor in areas where Labor has stolen a march on them.

    I hope the electorate realise this and vote for the Real Thing and not the political alternative who wraps up their offerings in shiny booklets and glitzy gauzy ads but which, once unwrapped can be seen for the same old, same old class war the Conservatives have been playing for ever:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/apr/06/boomers-and-millennials-this-is-not-intergenerational-warfare-its-class-warfare

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