Morgan: 51-49 to Labor

Morgan’s final pre-budget poll records next to no change, with Labor recording the barest of leads on two-party preferred.

The latest fortnightly result from Roy Morgan has Labor poking its nose in front on the headline respondent-allocated measure of two-party preferred, which now reads 51-49 in its favour after a tied result last time. However, the result based on preference flows as per the 2013 election result is slightly the other way, with a 51-49 Labor lead narrowing to 50.5-49.5. The shifts on the primary vote are no less subtle, with the Coalition down half a point to 40%, Labor up half a point to 32.5%, the Greens down half a point to 13.5%, and the Nick Xenophon down half a point to 4%. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the last two weekends from a combined sample of 2951.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

639 comments on “Morgan: 51-49 to Labor”

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  3. Is the Peter King on the Senate High Court case the same Peter King Turnbull won preselection against in 2004?

  4. wow celebrating new thread with two comment boxes.

    Good to see the trend from essential confirmed the polls are moving against the LNP on Budget eve

  11. Yes. It is the former Wentworth MP (now Sydney Barrister) Peter King who is appearing for Senator Day in the High Court action.

  12. [Verdict

    Barnaby Joyce’s statement that “when John Howard handed government over to the Labor Party and then the Labor, Green, independent alliance, Australia was owed tens of billions of dollars by the world” is not entirely accurate.]

    I assume they cannot get more conclusive in answer to avoid being defamatory

  18. The “X mins ago” is seriously annoying if it stays like that. Timestamp it and let us work out how many “mins ago” it was.

    Plus comment numbers, page numbers, page number navigations all need to happen. I may have to adopt that as a ‘Carthago delenda est’.

  19. confessions

    No its not that the ABC is ditching Fact Check its that the budget is cutting funding for it. I assume we know this separate detail because of the Conversation association.

  20. Re Pyne and Joyce teaming up to spread herpes amongst the carp, where is Cory Bernardi when you would really like him to make a comment.

  23. Scummo lives on the other side of the looking glass:
    [I’m sure I’ll take you with pleasure!’ the Queen said. `Twopence a week, and jam every other day.’ Alice couldn’t help laughing, as she said, `I don’t want you to hire me — and I don’t care for jam.’

    `It’s very good jam,’ said the Queen.

    `Well, I don’t want any to-day, at any rate.’

    `You couldn’t have it if you did want it,’ the Queen said. `The rule is, jam to-morrow and jam yesterday — but never jam to-day.’

    `It must come sometimes to “jam do-day,”‘ Alice objected.

    `No, it can’t,’ said the Queen. `It’s jam every other day: to-day isn’t any other day, you know.’

    `I don’t understand you,’ said Alice. `It’s dreadfully confusing!’

    `That’s the effect of living backwards,’]

  24. More improvement from the Crikey team with the 2 comment boxes. Comment numbering & better page navigation links are next I hope. Moving in the right direction now with the fixes, so thanks.

  25. guytaur:

    The ABC will have its funding cut in the budget. The decision about how to manage that funding cut, ie cutting staff or cutting programs or whatever, is made by its management.

  27. confessions

    Normally yes. However Fact Check is a joint operation though I don’t know which has more or less funding input. I was just saying why I think we know about this cut. I was not trying to absolve ABC management.

  28. It’s funny, I haven’t downloaded anything and won’t until Crikey is no longer in beta test phase … no avatars except a pic of William every time he posts!

  29. No point in complaining about the setup, I guess, you have heard it all before.

    If they would have just hired Musrum in the first place the whole thing would have been humming along a day or two past the changeover, or with no downtime at all if they’d given him a few days to set it up from scratch.

  30. I hereby break a self-imposed rule which was only to make comments to the people who are directly responsible for fixing what must surely be the most shambles-ridden attempt by any organisation ever in the history of commenting on a blog site. Since they have been ignoring this for several years now I have no particular expectation that they will fix it before Turnbull gets chopped.

    26 minutes ago now will be 28 minutes ago in two minutes time? The gerbils must be channelling Einstein.

    Still no comment numbers. Still no page numbers. How effin hard are they to do? And how about a button to press in order to get the most recent post?

  33. I hope this is good news for Labor and not just hype
    9NewsMelb: TONIGHT: @LaurieOakes with a Budget Eve bombshell. Full details in #9NewsAt6

  35. If that Morgan NSW result was replicated at the election that would represent a 5% swing and potentially nine seats for Labor on top of the three seats already notionally Labor.

  37. guytaur

    [ However Fact Check is a joint operation though I don’t know which has more or less funding input. I was just saying why I think we know about this cut. I was not trying to absolve ABC management. ]

    Fact Check will be outsourced to the IPA.

  45. Ah, I see what happened. They haven’t got the most basic clue. Every now and again a URL is going to be a long one, so they need to break it in the middle. This is something that has never happened in the whole history of blogging, so they can be forgiven, poor little petals.
    /sarcasm

  46. I just don’t think that they can cope with a blog that gets more than 10 comments on any particular thread.

  47. The IPA:
    “You believe that reality is something objective, external, existing in its own right. You also believe that the nature of reality is self-evident. When you delude yourself into thinking that you see something, you assume that everyone else sees the same thing as you. But I tell you, Winston voters, that reality is not external. Reality exists in the human mind, and nowhere else. Not in the individual mind, which can make mistakes, and in any case soon perishes: only in the mind of the Party IPA, which is collective and immortal. Whatever the Party IPA holds to be the truth, is truth. It is impossible to see reality except by looking through the eyes of the Party IPA.

  48. Peter King wins cases only occasionally – very, very occasionally – infinitesimally small occasionally

  50. Dave
    4 mins ago
    kenny – words fail me –

    Budget 2016: Scott Morrison’s big fiscal play – it’s about the vibe not the money

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/budget-2016-scott-morrisons-big-fiscal-play–its-about-the-vibe-not-the-money-20160501-gojo6u.html#ixzz47TwjVOeh

    Looks like all URLs need to have a hyphen if they are going to break at the end of a line. Take note, the rest of the world. Get your act together.

    And that reads to me like a fair account by Kenny.

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