Morgan: 51-49 to Labor

Morgan’s final pre-budget poll records next to no change, with Labor recording the barest of leads on two-party preferred.

The latest fortnightly result from Roy Morgan has Labor poking its nose in front on the headline respondent-allocated measure of two-party preferred, which now reads 51-49 in its favour after a tied result last time. However, the result based on preference flows as per the 2013 election result is slightly the other way, with a 51-49 Labor lead narrowing to 50.5-49.5. The shifts on the primary vote are no less subtle, with the Coalition down half a point to 40%, Labor up half a point to 32.5%, the Greens down half a point to 13.5%, and the Nick Xenophon down half a point to 4%. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the last two weekends from a combined sample of 2951.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

639 comments on “Morgan: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. darn

    I thought what Barnaby joyce was pathetic. Had a Labor DPM conducted themselves in that way, there would be outrage. Having said that, Anna Burke was smart to play it down. Why should they buy into the games that the coalition want to play. Barnaby was doing distraction, and Labor dont need to bite

  2. [The moral decisions are made by those who draft the laws, not those who interpret them.]
    These is largely correct on intro to legal concepts texts. Practically I would argue it is rarely true with competent legal practitioners and judicial officers. It is a form and substance thing to a great extent, the form must be a simple interpretation / application of the law, in substance a good judge will be able to use legal rules and structures to get the right outcome.
    An interesting example is the case law on interpreting parties intentions with respect to GST in Australia and NZ, in the context of remedies such as rectification. The NSW Supreme Court recently granted rectification of a contract to increase the price based on mindboggling weak facts. You can’t find a common thread in these cases because it is dressed as law but is driven almost exclusively by a kind of morality. Even so I find the recent NSW sup crt decision extraordinarily generous in helping a vendor who didn’t bother to help themselves. There may well be an issue with courts, up to and including the high court having an incredibly weak understanding of the GST law as well.

  7. ‘SpaceKidette: The World According to Dutton: It’s the Refugee Advocates fault.’

    What a coincidence. That was the line propagated on ABC news this morning.
    What an utter disgrace is this minister and his media lackeys.

  8. political_alert: Peter Dutton expresses frustration at advocates, saying they are encouraging refugees to take action to influence policy #auspol

  9. Barnaby basically said that Labor needed to be exterminated like the carp. That was the point he was trying to make. Beyond disgraceful.

  11. Essential suggests that Labor are on course for a great victory. The LNP have nothing to campaign with. From now on, anytime they set out to campaign on anything relevant to voters – health, education, tax, jobs, infrastructure, welfare measures, the environment, energy policy, disability or just about anything else – they will effectively be proposing that voters support Labor.

    The LNP have tried and failed to take us back to the 1920’s. A perplexed and in many cases disaffected electorate will punish them for their stupidity and their ideological blindness.

    (The G’s of course will be implicitly advocating that voters do not support Labor. In effect they will be running interference for the Turnbot fiefdom.)

  12. A spray of points regarding the ongoing changes to Crikey polls.

    Point 1: I suspect that Poll Bludger is the principal reason that people come to crikey.com

    Point 2: Crikey has other blogs, but Poll Bludger alone must account for a clear majority of the activity on Crikey. (A quick visit to the other blogs is refreshing if you like crickets.)

    Point 3: I further suspect that without a vital Poll Bludger community Crikey would lose subscriptions.

    Point 4: It feels as if the developers aren’t “eating their own dog food”, so they don’t seem to understand the harm they are doing to the blog experience and by extension to Crikey.

    Point 5: “Change management” is an important part of a process like upgrading a web site. The change management for Crikey blogs is being mis-handled, but a little two-way communication with users could ease tensions and improve the site.

    Point 6: It appears that the only way to get the attention of the developers is via their requested email address. product(at)crikey(dot)com(dot)au

    Point 7: I suggest an avalanche of email feedback be directed to the developers from PB users to get that attention.

    Point 8: But please play nice. (flys, honey, vinegar, etc.) Some of the changes are good. Put William’s interests first. We only know how the changes are affecting the PB community, not how difficult it is to manage a blog, which I guess is also a driver.

  13. shanebazzi: .@PeterDutton_MP still has no plan for the men he is ILLEGALLY detaining on #Manus. #CloseTheCamps #BringThemHere

  14. K17

    Agreed. Barnaby was being a pathetic piece of crap, using the metaphor of carp re Labor. Smart of Labor to not give the creep more oxygen to distract from their hopeless attempt at governing

  15. Even on tax – for decades a useful LNP hammer – Labor will have the ascendancy in this election.

    The LNP really are the worst, most ineffectual and incompetent government in living memory.

  16. Dutton does not seem to get it that you have an air ambulance on standby in Nauru to get good medical evacuation times. Pathetic excuse.

  17. Have I got this right – Dutton thinks that Refugee Advocates are giving refugees some hope that they might be settled. That’s why they are committing suicide. Sounds reasonable.

  18. sharnatweets: So, @PeterDutton_MP, are you saying you’d rather see suicides, rapes & assaults than boats arriving? Such a good “Christian” #CloseTheCamps

  20. This story of unlikely victory from the sporting world must give the Greens hope of forming government one day.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-03/leicester-city-win-premier-league-spurs-chelsea-draw-epl/7378108

    However Tony Abbott is much less likely than 5000 to 1 to be PM again. This omen related to a newcomer that had not won the title before. Abbott has already had his chance. More likely Bill Shorten becoming the new PM…

    As for the budget speculation and pre-leaks, it is getting farcical. Tobacco tax is fine, the backpacker tax is absurd. Neither will get us anywhere near plugging the hole.

  21. briefly @ #600 1 min ago

    Even on tax – for decades a useful LNP hammer – Labor will have the ascendancy in this election.
    The LNP really are the worst, most ineffectual and incompetent government in living memory.

    This misses the point. The human debris on Manus have been trafficked and dumped. Doubtless to the surprise of taxpayers, who have paid a high price for their internment, the captives on Manus are not our property. They are merely Abbott’s publicity opportunities.

  22. It is equally telling the on the eve of a most critical budget, one that comes just days before an election campaign is called, the government decided to make the story not about what it it doing but what the enemy is up to.

    This is the kind of thing that really reinforces my opinion that the Coalition has learned ALL the wrong lessons from the RGR years. Talking about your opponent is Opposition behaviour, not the behaviour of a viable Govt.

    The Coalition may get a bit of a boost in the polls post budget, simply on the basis that there will be some relief out there that they are doing something, anything at all that they cant dump 24 hrs later. This is the fwarking BUDGET after all.

    But, that will be balanced off, or even more than balanced off, on the basis of what is actually IN the Budget. The next week is going to be i think, a legitimate “test” of both parties insofar as how they get on top of the messaging and spin things to their own advantage. “Innovative” and “Agile” may well get a bit of a run. 🙂

    Will be interesting to see if the supply bills get through by the end of the week? Has to get to and through the Senate on either the 4/5 or 9th of May and I’m kind of hoping there is at least some silly buggers gets played with this at least to make the point that Parliament is not just a rubber stamp body for the planning of Liberal electoral advantage.

  24. @ Victoria – it’s an entirely different situation: A Labor DPM rules the country when a Labor PM goes overseas. The leader of the Nationals just keeps the seat warm and does as he’s told.

    There would be an uproar if it was J Bishop that did the same.

    The Nationals aren’t taken seriously, so no-one gets too surprised when they do something odd.

    Remember,

  25. late riser @ #574 31 mins ago

    Note to Musrum: Comment numbers seem to change. For example, the comment where Tricot says “…fancy avatars” was #500 a few minutes ago, and it’s now #498. The last comment on the page has been #500 for a while. I don’t know how long. I only just noticed. (I am running CCCP ver 5.32 under chrome.) ((And a huge THANKS for making the change experience bearable.))

    ((NP.))
    The number issue cannot be helped. What happens (WB can confirm) is that WB deletes some comments, or comments stuck in moderation are released and everything gets shifted up or down.

    When Crikey eventually implements a proper numbering system things should be more stable,

  26. I see others have noted Fran Kelly’s less than even-handed approach on RN. I remember when she was so excited about the prospect of an Abbott-led government when the three Independents looked as though they might go with TA, that she let slip with a “we” when it came to “her” side winning the election. I seem to remember at the time that she was seen to be more impartial than she seems now.

    Mind you, there are probably plenty of those who would like to join the Labor bandwagon and drop a “we” in if Bill actually wins.

    As far as Fran is concerned, I try to avoid RN breakfast when she is around.

  28. Tom Connell ✔ ‎@tomwconnell
    Labor says supply bills will go through the senate today, clearing the way for an election. @SkyNewsAust
    8:56 AM – 3 May 2016

    Harrumph.

    From that i would assume that the ALP strat and tac people have decided to run with “bring it on you dodgey bastards and we will crush you like bugs”.

    Eminently viable approach but less fun.

  29. kevjohnno @ #524 18 hours ago

    More improvement from the Crikey team with the 2 comment boxes.

    cccp users will not see the top one. Basically they’ve cloned the box with the same unique ID which causes confusion and delay.

  32. BRIEFLY – Even the “black hole” claims have come at the right time for labor. Plenty of time to fix any “problem” and move on. The libs are now going to spend seven weeks “screaming” their way into Opposition. First, they will scream at Labor, then they will scream at each other. Poll watching doesn’t get better than this.

  34. From that i would assume that the ALP strat and tac people have decided to run with “bring it on you dodgey bastards and we will crush you like bugs”.

    Eminently viable approach but less fun.

    Clearly they have decided that the Coalition are sufficiently incompetent and incapable of organising anything that they do not need Labor help to make them look even more incompetent.

  37. At least the “technical hiccups” are sorting out the real bludgers from the faux bludgers. It’s certainly a tremendous bulwark against trolls (who are not good when faced with complexity). Stay positive dudes, this is a time to be happy.

  39. While the current polls are heartening for Labor, I have been around long enough to remember Labor leading the Coalition with a similar type of margin, just a few days before polling day – then the conservative media claim via the stock market crashing under Labor, social disarray and chaos if Labor wins – and the media then give the heading “Late swing back to the government” to make it plain that to get on the winners side, Vote 1 – LNP.

    I will believe a Labor win when it happens as it is all up hill or against the tide (take your pick) for it to come to pass.

    Knocking off first term governments is hardly the norm in Oz though who is to say it could not happen?

  43. The libs are now going to spend seven weeks “screaming” their way into Opposition.

    Ahhhhh….so you expect the repeated deployment of the odious Cash to the front lines then??

    Eminently viable approach but less fun.

    Thinking about it more, i’ll withdraw the “less fun” part of that assertion.

    How can crushing the Coalition at the moment be anything BUT the most fun you can have with your pants on?? Silly me.

  47. MTBW

    S0me of you won’t like this but others will including me!

    He hasn’t a snowball’s chance in hell of winning, but I’m all for it if it keeps him too busy to get involved in the election campaign here.

  48. My biggest complaint about this new site remains WB’s pic and his lack of collared shirt. I know he is from WA, but still.
    And either smile or dont, this half grin Mona Lisa thing doesnt work for me.

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