Morgan: 51-49 to Labor

Morgan’s final pre-budget poll records next to no change, with Labor recording the barest of leads on two-party preferred.

The latest fortnightly result from Roy Morgan has Labor poking its nose in front on the headline respondent-allocated measure of two-party preferred, which now reads 51-49 in its favour after a tied result last time. However, the result based on preference flows as per the 2013 election result is slightly the other way, with a 51-49 Labor lead narrowing to 50.5-49.5. The shifts on the primary vote are no less subtle, with the Coalition down half a point to 40%, Labor up half a point to 32.5%, the Greens down half a point to 13.5%, and the Nick Xenophon down half a point to 4%. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the last two weekends from a combined sample of 2951.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

639 comments on “Morgan: 51-49 to Labor”

  1. Here’s a challenge to the MSM hacks -remind Turnbull/Morrison of this:

    Treasurer Chris Bowen has accused the Coalition of ”crab-walking away” from its commitment to release its policy costings and of attacking the nation’s public servants, in a fresh war of words that has broken out between the government and opposition over the budget.

    Mr Bowen’s comments came after shadow treasurer Joe Hockey said the Coalition would not rely on the official Treasury numbers to work out how much its policies cost, ahead of the federal election.

    Instead, Mr Hockey said the Coalition will use the independent Parliamentary Budget Office, state government colleagues and independent advisers.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/chris-bowen-criticises-coalition-over-swipe-at-treasury-20130726-2qp8r.html#ixzz47XpWq5WV

  2. Paul, don’t worry too much about what Grattan says. Analysis won’t solve this problem for Labor. All they have to do is stand back and let the issue die, like all the others have, over the next few days.

    Despite what the punditocracy tells us, Budgets usually don’t fare well in the polls. That makes the “brilliant” plan of having en election so soon after one – before it can be tested or debated – “puzzling” to say the least.

    The Liberals have had to wreck so much to get here, that there’s hardly any point in the journey. They’ve destroyed the village in order to save it. And the village is themselves.

  3. I’m unaware – I’m sure others will enlighten me – of any court ruling that a piece of legislation, though it complies with all the requirements, is invalid because it is immoral.

    I am aware of numerous cases of the courts upholding laws, with the relevant judge commenting that the law has bound him to do so even though he thinks the legislation is abhorrent.

    The moral decisions are made by those who draft the laws, not those who interpret them.

  4. [ It’s a train wreck waiting to happen. The best thing to do is look the other way, step back and try to make sure that none of the wreckage hits us in the face.]

    I’d also note that with the MSM about to hit full turd polish mode for the coalition, it may take a couple of days for this to become obvious to the CPG. Probably something weird and quantum??

  5. I agree with Bushfire re ” black hole gate

    If Turnbull and co have completely fuc**d up the excise calculations then hit them hard otherwise labor should just continue to be calm and measured as they have been this morning.

    Plenty more in the budget to concentrate on.

    Cheers.

  6. Meant to add, it should be remembered that there are two days of senate estimates pencilled in for later this week.

    Plenty of scope there for labor to cause some mischief and turn over a few rocks.

    Cheers.

  7. And pigs fly…………

    Emilio, Barón Death
    2h2 hours ago
    Emilio, Barón Death ‏@krONik
    Fran Kelly tries to wack Burke for Parliamentary Budget Office figures. If only she’d take the Govt to task

    #AUSpol

  8. BB
    I wasn’t worried about what Grattan says, but I would like to see actual details of the different assumptions and if it possible to include healthcare costs. I think Bowen is on the right track and Cormann has fudged it to get the result he wanted. On Lateline recently Jones was making a big deal about how the tobacco tax was the biggest proposed revenue change, and this leak follows simply so Coal can say we “can’t afford” education funding and renewable energy.

  9. ZOOMSTER – I assume that you would have to show the law was so immoral that it offended against an implied term of the constitution (e.g. Torture?) A judge could also say that parliament would not intend an unjust or immoral act and use that as a rule of interpretation. But, at the end of the day, he is supposed to apply the law of the land. However, judges though are cunning buggers. They would work very hard to find outs.

  10. Sorry to hear that John Kaye Greens State MP died of cancer. Hard enough job let alone to find out you have cancer.

    My condolences to any that knew him.

  11. William, I’ve already send a detailed email to product@crikey..

    So far no response. I turned up this morning to find it _even harder_ to find where I’d left off. It reloaded the latest page and all the time stamps are _relative_. Geeeeezz..

  12. zoomster

    Read the judgement. There are no loopholes the Detention Camps are illegal in PNG and there is no getting around it with silly terms like open detention.

    Off shore is dead as a result as the people smugglers now have a route they can exploit.

    Thats the hard reality that the LNP have brought the policy to. Labor would not have had the problem as the court cases would not have run as the AS would be resettled before it got to court.

    Yes I give Labor credit for behaving very differently to the LNP with camps.

  13. Fairfax has been fairly slow reporting ‘tobacco-gate’

    Coorey —

    Tobacco black hole could be worse

    The so-called $19 billion “massive black hole” that has opened up in Labor’s costings over the next 10 years would be more serious had the Opposition committed to spend the money.

    ….The PBO…….used older assumptions than did Treasury .

    Shadow treasurer Chris Bowen pledged that the Opposition would accept the Treasury estimates over those of the PBO, meaning Labor now plans to raise about $80 billion in total tax increases over the next decade.

    That is still a lot more than it has promised to spend so far.

    The government is beating it up for all it is worth, even if it damages its earlier claim that Labor is increasing taxes by $100 billion.

    …The tobacco revelation is an embarrassment for Labor and it may curtail other announcements it had planned for the election campaign, especially its yet to be released health policy.

    It is equally telling the on the eve of a most critical budget, one that comes just days before an election campaign is called, the government decided to make the story not about what it it doing but what the enemy is up to.

    http://www.afr.com/news/politics/election/budget-2016-tobacco-revelation-is-an-embarrassment-for-labor-20160502-goklg6

  14. This is a do nothing budget. As such its a great platform for Labor to launch its campaign on.

    What is fair or unfair is going to be the real theme of the election. Medicare cuts education cuts and the rest along with no tax collected from multinationals and no accountability for the Finance Sector until a RC is held into it. Wasted spending with the most glaring example of the plebiscite.

    I have heard nothing to give this budget anything other than the do nothing title.

  15. Victoria @ 547

    Scomo quoted in that Sky feed:

    “Sweeteners won’t change the circumstances for the people who are facing difficult times in our economy,” he told reporters as he arrived at Parliament House.

    Apparently the Liberals believe that they will change the circumstances of those not facing difficult times and, as a result, these people will rush out and spend like drunken sailors.

  16. I thought the PB collective and my dear insightful friend young Nick would enjoy this from an EY document this morning calling for a tax reform commission to be established:

    [The IMF lists several areas where Australia’s tax system is deficient:
    Insufficient reliance on indirect taxes such as GST
    Company tax rates that are too high to be competitive and may repel investment
    Excessive personal income tax rates and persistent bracket creep
    Problems in the taxing of superannuation and capital gains
    A plethora of inefficient taxes like stamp duty]

  17. The Budget will probably earn a boost in polls. Whether it can be sustained is another matter. They are adept at ripping off Labor policy no doubt.

  18. WWP

    Someone else that does not get it. Tax reform blueprints were laid out by the Ken Henry report.

    No need to reinvent the wheel. Unless you are the LNP/IPA doing trickle down

  19. Do we know what happened to last night’s Newspoll? Did Shanahan throttle it in a dark corner somewhere? Steve Price seemed to think it was alive.

  20. Booleanbach, Musrum posted this message for you earlier this morning…

    musrum @ #440 2 hours ago

    Typo in my post. v 5.32 is up though: just gives my Avatar animation.
    Also, booleanbach if you a reading this: your FSM Avatar is removed from the script. I assume you want people who do not use cccp to see it, so I suggest you update your Gravatar at ” rel=”nofollow”>here.

  21. TPOF – Wasn’t ScoMo basically saying “the poor will always be with us, so there isn’t much point helping them.” As I keep saying, if they only give tax cuts to those on $80,000 there will be hell to pay

  22. Paywalled article, keep an eye on Essential site for full details later today.

    http://www.crikey.com.au/2016/05/03/turnbull-balloon-deflates-faster/

    Essential: Turnbull deflates further while voters back Labor on climate

    Labor’s proposed climate action policy has garnered strong support from voters, while voters continue to become disenchanted with the Prime Minister.

    Bernard Keane — Politics Editor
    May 3, 2016

    Labor retains its election-winning lead in this week’s Essential Report, while voters are rapidly falling out of love with Malcolm Turnbull and looking at Bill Shorten with renewed interest.

    Labor retains a two-party preferred lead of 52%-48%, with its primary vote down a point to 38%, the Coalition steady on 40% and the Greens also steady on 10%. That’s a swing of 5.5 percentage points to Labor from the 2013 election and in the unlikely event of occurring on a uniform national basis, would deliver Labor 23 seats.

    Voters continue to sour on the Prime Minister, however. We saw in March how voters’ assessment of Turnbull’s attributes had deteriorated since his ascension to the prime ministership, and that process has continued in the intervening weeks. Turnbull has gone backwards since March on all positive characteristics, by an average of just under three percentage points, and has gone up on negative characteristics by an average of of five. Shorten, conversely, is continuing his steady rehabilitation with voters: his positive attributes are up by an average of three points, and his negatives are down a little (just below two).

  23. Dave,

    Thanks forthat link.

    Coorey seems to forget that Bill Shorten and labor have stated many times that there are more savings measures to come over coming weeks.

    I will still be interested to see what the Treasury assumptions are re the tobacco excise.

    It will also be interesting to see if the MSM write up the short falls in corporate tax and income tax that will be in the budget as ” black holes ” for the government.

    Silly question.

    Cheers.

  24. stephanieando: Immigration Minister Peter Dutton is in Canberra and will address media on “recent incidents in Nauru” at 11.15am #auspol #asylumseekers

  25. Note to Musrum: Comment numbers seem to change. For example, the comment where Tricot says “…fancy avatars” was #500 a few minutes ago, and it’s now #498. The last comment on the page has been #500 for a while. I don’t know how long. I only just noticed. (I am running CCCP ver 5.32 under chrome.) ((And a huge THANKS for making the change experience bearable.))

  26. William/Musrum
    I have dutifully whinged to the Gerbils, and give thanks for the Return of the Gravatars and other WB/Musrum sourced goodies on PB, but I seem unable to download CCCP using the supplied instructions.

    Being a tech-challenged marsupial tank of very little brain, I’m PBing on a MacBook Pro running OS X El Cap 10.11.4, using the supplied Safari v9.1 as a browser. I note that other Mac users, like Don, seem to have access to comments and page numbers, and am enviously pressing my broad nose on the glass to ask for help.

  27. TPOF
    You can set up to get upgrades automatically
    In the drop down menu next to the monkey head, select Manage user scripts. When this opens hit the blue more button, then select auto.

  28. Labor deserves to win: Shorten

    Bill Shorten has told his colleagues they might be underdogs but Labor deserves to win the July 2 election.

    The opposition leader claimed there was no hubris in that statement because Labor had always fought to offer the best plan for Australia’s future.
    Mr Shorten predicts the government’s budget, to be delivered on Tuesday, will be mediocre and favour the big end of town.
    “For the last two caucus meetings I’ve spoken about how we can win,” he told what is likely the final meeting of Labor MPs and senators before the poll.
    “Today I want to say to you that arguably with our policies we deserve to win.”

    http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/labor-deserves-to-win-election-shorten/news-story/8272f0f2e00d26b0a63df08cb549fe9d

  29. I’m astonished (though I shouldn’t be) how the Canberra Press Gallery, after all the embarrassment of misplaced confidence in Abbott somehow turning into PM material once he got the job when he has never shown any aptitude for the work, can still broadcast patent and patently wrong Coalition propaganda uncritically.

    As for the News Corp press aggressively polishing the turd in unison in their pre-reporting of the budget, all they are doing is confirming in the minds of their readers that they are covered in the same material as they are polishing.

    I long ago gave up the idea that voters are dumb, just because they don’t pay the same attention to politics that I do. When they do pay attention, which is typically at budget and election times, they can see for themselves what is going on. Telling them that a load of dog droppings is a beautiful modern art work they should be grateful they had the privilege of seeing is just going to get the response: ‘I don’t know anything about art, but I know what I like’.

    It just smashes what little public confidence, let alone esteem, is left in the eyes of the general public and gives rise to a Trump phenomenon where simply stating things that accord with what the public see (rightly or wrongly) is the only thing that gets a positive response.

    That comment was a bit garbled, but the bottom line is that there has never been a less exciting time to get away with purveying patent bullshit.

  30. Just heard Anna Burke speaking with Neil Mitchell on 3aw.
    Her take on the Barnaby Joyce “carp” speech was: – “It was all just a bit of fun”.

    I didn’t see him make the comments but from what I’ve read here it didn’t sound very light hearted. So now I’m just confused.

  31. Rh

    I note that other Mac users, like Don, seem to have access to comments and page numbers, and am enviously pressing my broad nose on the glass to ask for help.

    I had to download firefox and then the Greasemonkey and CCCP add-ons as per below. I now use firefox (with PB pinned to the tab line) for PB and Safari as per usual for all my other browsing (although I can use firefox alternatively for browsing anything).

    To use the Crikey Clear Comment Preview script, install in order:
    Firefox
    Greasemonkey
    cccp
    or:
    Google Chrome
    Tampermonkey
    cccp

  32. Did any of you watch Q&A last night and see the number of tweets saying basically that politicians are all in it together and not respected?
    Not a good omen for anyone!

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