Morgan: 51-49 to Labor

Morgan’s final pre-budget poll records next to no change, with Labor recording the barest of leads on two-party preferred.

The latest fortnightly result from Roy Morgan has Labor poking its nose in front on the headline respondent-allocated measure of two-party preferred, which now reads 51-49 in its favour after a tied result last time. However, the result based on preference flows as per the 2013 election result is slightly the other way, with a 51-49 Labor lead narrowing to 50.5-49.5. The shifts on the primary vote are no less subtle, with the Coalition down half a point to 40%, Labor up half a point to 32.5%, the Greens down half a point to 13.5%, and the Nick Xenophon down half a point to 4%. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the last two weekends from a combined sample of 2951.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

639 comments on “Morgan: 51-49 to Labor”

  1. Try again (forgot to copy my post in case of failure).

    zoomster
    As I understand it, the debt which is likely to bring the country undone is the huge amount held by banks.

  2. Morning all

    I only listened to a few minutes of ABC radio. Go figure, it is acoalition budget and the focus is on Labor’s black hole. The ABC can go and get stuffed

  3. Also selectively quoted the Guardian article with this Price person scare mongering over electricity prices. Burke had to draw her attention to the rest of the article where the statements were discredited.
    This is why we have polls at 50/50 when the government is so clearly a shambolic mess.

  4. Murdoch’s news.com.au sometimes seems to be aimed at a different readership than the tabloids:

    IT’S the thing news.com.au readers struggle with every day.
    But with proposed changes to negative gearing already ruled out by Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, will the government do anything in today’s Federal Budget to make it easier for people to buy their first home?
    The nation’s renters will be waiting with bated breath to find out how the government plans to tackle the rising cost of housing as Treasurer Scott Morrison hands down his first Budget tonight.
    Along with housing affordability, taxing the rich, adequate superannuation, healthcare and education are shaping up to be hot issues.
    And after Treasurer Scott Morrison yesterday confirmed plans to tinker with superannuation rules, those approaching retirement age nervously await the details of how their nest eggs will be affected.
    Younger Australians will be looking out for how the Budget will deal with the nation’s spiralling higher education debt, predicted to blow out by 560 per cent to $180 billion over the next decade.
    The government is again considering the unpopular options of lowering the income threshold before workers are required to start repaying their loans, and hiking fees.
    And families with school-aged children will run a fine-tooth comb through the education budget, after the Coalition confirmed it will not fully fund the Gonski plan, promising only to plough an extra $1.2 billion into schools over the next four years.

    http://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/federal-budget/what-australians-want-from-todays-federal-budget/news-story/d76976cc74801680ae055d44cb43114f

  5. [
    victoria
    11 mins ago

    Morning all

    I only listened to a few minutes of ABC radio. Go figure, it is acoalition budget and the focus is on Labor’s black hole. The ABC can go and get stuffed
    ]
    As I noted last night; this “black hole” occurs under Liberals calculations because they are assuming Labors anti smoking policies work better than Labor expect. Quite a complement really.

  6. sohar @ #491 21 mins ago

    Musrum,
    “cccp v 5.30 is up” What is v5.31?

    Typo in my post. v 5.32 is up though: just gives my Avatar animation.

    Also, booleanbach if you a reading this: your FSM Avatar is removed from the script. I assume you want people who do not use cccp to see it, so I suggest you update your Gravatar at ” rel=”nofollow”>here.

  7. Victoria

    “I am more concerned about the strong winds about in our part of the world today.”
    .
    Must be the “headwinds” that the Cormannator and Scrott keep telling us the economy is facing .

  8. Shiftaling

    i am really peeved with the ABC in particular. Labor’s debt and deficit was front and centre of each of their budget day. Yet here we have budget day for the coalition and the focus is on Labor’s costings and black hole. I am frickin disgusted

  9. Mungo this week :
    Malcolm’s election campaign under water
    So Malcolm Turnbull’s $50 billion submarines sank almost without trace – not as they were meant to, after the first of them makes its stealthy launch in 2030, or somewhere within that decade, but in a morass of turmoil and distraction last week—not the ideal fanfare for a lengthy campaign in which they will be utterly overwhelmed by more urgent and pressing issues among the long-suffering public.

    But then came the big one: the supreme court of Papua New Guinea declared that the Manus Island detention centre was illegal, and always had been: the country’s constitution had been breached by withholding from its inhabitants their right to personal liberty. No ifs and buts, no loopholes: some device like the fiction in Nauru, that because the detainees were allowed out of the compound their liberty was not constrained, would not work. And the prime minister, Peter O’Neill, accepted immediately that the detention centre would be closed forthwith.

    The impartial judgement of the Papua-New Guinea judiciary has not only exposed the hypocrisy of Manus Island; it has revealed that the whole carefully constructed impartial brutality of offshore detention is a fraud and a fiasco. So bad luck Malcolm Turnbull, bad luck Peter Dutton. Bad luck Bill Shorten, bad luck Richard Marles.

    Oh, and a pity about the subs.

    http://www.echo.net.au/2016/05/malcolms-election-campaign-water/

  10. Zoom good points.
    On those less than 80k many are actually tax negative, not reversing their bracket creep is effectively cutting pensions. Obviously those who pay no tax at all have other issues.

  11. Yet here we have budget day for the coalition and the focus is on Labor’s costings and black hole. I am frickin disgusted

    We really are very poorly served by the media in this country.

  12. Victoria
    I only listened to a few minutes of ABC radio. Go figure, it is acoalition budget and the focus is on Labor’s black hole. The ABC can go and get stuffed

    If only we had the quality journalists the BBC & US PBS / NPR have, luckily we have internet radio to hear how it should be done.
    The local BBC corespondent is streets ahead of all including Tingle

  13. ‘The impartial judgement of the Papua-New Guinea judiciary has not only exposed the hypocrisy of Manus Island; it has revealed that the whole carefully constructed impartial brutality of offshore detention is a fraud and a fiasco..’

    Well, no.

    But if this were true, that would mean that the UNHCR (which runs camps all over the world) would also be guilty of these ‘crimes’.

    It would also mean the end to any idea that a regional solution is possible – a policy also supported by the Greens.

    Manus is undoubtedly a hell hole (I would argue that it wouldn’t have been run the way it is under a Labor government, but of course that’s alternate universe stuff). But once again – as they did with the HC judgement on Malaysia – people are confusing a judgement made about the meaning of a law with a statement about morality.

    This kind of emotional reaction to the issue (from all sides of the debate) gets in the way of good policy outcomes.

    As was observed on QandA last night, there are no options available on the refugee issue which will please everyone. It is a very divisive and emotional issue – and the rest of the world seems to be currently working through the same issues Australia has been, and coming to much the same conclusions.

  14. Labor’s so called ‘black hole’ on tobacco tax revenue was a product of the Parliamentary Budget Office NOT Labor’s independent costings. Bowen has already stated that they, presumably the PBO, will revise the figures once the Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Outlook is released early in the campaign.

  15. Agree on ABC radio’s concentration on the “Tobacco Black Hole” this morning.

    Suddenly there’s no “the government says” or “alleged Black Hole”. It’s there. It’s definite. It’s real. It’s “THE Black Hole”. And Labor are in major trouble over it because it means… oh… I dunno… the Australian economy is ruined, or something.

    The news bulletins were full of it. The breakfast host on 702 Sydney, a little twerp called “Robbie Buck”, got Bowen in for a grilling. He hammered. He interrupted. He was like a dog with a bone. Bowen was calm and measured, but it didn’t matter. Buck came back to the story repeatedly.

    And yet, as someone said above, it’s the government’s Big Day today, not Labor’s.

    Very strange.

    The Turnbullistas seem to be seriously rattled. What with Joyce’s “CARP!!!” insanity yesterday, ScoMo’s spittle-flecking style of delivery tonight, and Turnbull’s newfound love of slogans, doom, and gloom, it’s going to be a very long election campaign. It’s like watching the maniacal writhings of a dying sea monster, beached and agonizingly suffocating to death. The situation is getting worse now than I can remember Abbott ever being.

    And that’s saying something.

  16. I note that the last numbered comment is always #500. What’s the point of comment numbers if the same number applies to various comments?

  17. The Turnbullistas seem to be seriously rattled.

    As Mungo writes (see above) Turnbull’s campaign is under water. They’re starting to grasp at things, anything in order to reset the media narrative. You’ll remember Abbott started doing this towards the end as well.

  18. AM gives Cormann his weekly gig at blaming Labor for everything.
    Really, what is the friggin’ point?

    This is after the news reported the self-immolation of an asylum seeker from the Nauru govt point of view, blaming refugee advocates for giving them false hope.

  19. Yep. Turnbull in a nutshell………….

    Richard Chirgwin
    13h13 hours ago
    Richard Chirgwin ‏@R_Chirgwin
    Malcolm Turnbull knows good from evil and embraces evil for advantage. That has always been the true quality of the man his whole career.

  20. From Peter Hartcher….
    “So many Americans are angry because the system does not serve them any longer, and Trump channels their anger because he offers to break it.”

    Another quality piece of analysis, Hartcher ignores the fact that Trump has the highest negative rating of any presidential candidate in history.

  21. Morning Bludgers. Could someone remind me how to change the avatar please. Last time it was changed was around 5 years ago and my only memory was something to do with carbon ? Cheers!

  22. My very big hope and expectation is that Labor have an ace up their sleeves. They need to sink this mob comprehensively. I am so fed up with the spivs running thr place

  23. ‘The breakfast host on 702 Sydney, a little twerp called “Robbie Buck”, got Bowen in for a grilling’

    Robbie Buck is a complete lightweight who seems in constant fear of saying anything remotely controversial. I would hope that Bowen could cope with the likes of him.

  24. [blaming refugee advocates for giving them false hope.]

    Whatever you think of the refugee stuff you’d have to be a moron to blame those who held out false hope rather than those who deliberately took all hope away.

  25. Peter of Marino,
    You’ll need to log in to gravatar.com with your wordpress login. Ask them to email you a new password link if you have forgotten it.

  26. One of the many many reasons that I want Labor to win is so that they can put a bomb through the pathetically compromised news organisation known as the ABC.

  27. Good morning all,

    Yes, once again the MSM have jumped in all guns blazing re the labor tobacco excise “black hole .”

    What has been leaked to the MSM is a total of how much revenue will be collected as calculated by Treasury. Perhaps simply a one page note.

    Nothing has been given to the MSM on how the revenue figures were calculated
    and what assumptions were used. Is the governments proposal exactly the same as that of labor ? So much unanswered.

    It should also be remembered that the government has form on massaging figures to suit its agenda. Hockey did it with growth figures in one budget at least. He asked Treasury to model a series of forecasts based on low, medium and high figures and he picked the one that suited his agenda. Who is yo say the same had not happened here. Instead of simply asking Treasury to model a specific proposal using the available statistics who is to say the government has not directed Treasury to use a specific set of figures to spit out at the end of its modelling process a figure Morrison and Turnbull like.

    I am not saying that is what has happened but a $20 billion difference does spark the inquiring mind to ask what has Treasury used in its calculations that are so different to that used by the PBO.

    Morrison better hope the Treasury modelling has used realistic and independent figures and assumptions.

    With the overall budget I think the MSM in all its excitement is not doing Turnbull any favours. So much is expected and if it comes out a dampsquid as far as the public is concerned then problems are on the horizon.

    The MSM have written this up as do much more than your average budget. It is the coalition election campaign agenda in writing.

    If the government is gong yo campaign on this budget then it must own the billions in Abbott cuts that it contains. Not yet passed the senate but sittingin the budget as savings and therefore they are now the policy agenda of Turnbull.

    Cuts to Family tax benefits while those on $80000 and over get a tax cut etc etc.

    Interesting night ahead and the government better hope it has not acted in haste re its tobacco tax black hole claim andvMorrison and Turnbull better hope that the public are Woking around with blinkers on because labor, unions, doctors, teachers etc etc etc will be all over them.

    The MSM while acting as the propaganda wing of the government well have done more harm than good.

    Cheers.

  28. Four corners report last night on the housing situation in Australia, confirmed the concerns I have had for years. We are mortgaged to the hilt, and those financially benefitting from the housing bubble are subsidized by all taxpayers. I fear any changes will be too little too late

  29. Zopomie, when a court makes a judgment about the meaning of a Bill of Rights it tends also to be a judgment about morality – the point of a Bill of Rights being to put some basic moral principles into the law. (That’s also why the Spivs’ Party doesn’t like the idea of a Bill of Rights)

  30. Zoomie, when a court makes a judgment about the meaning of a Bill of Rights it tends also to be a judgment about morality – the point of a Bill of Rights being to put some basic moral principles into the law. (That’s also why the Spivs’ Party doesn’t like the idea of a Bill of Rights)

  31. I don’t think Labor needs an ace up the sleeve, or perhaps they are their own ace?

    The Turnbull government is disintegrating as we watch. Some of the old hands have stepped in – Tony Nutt comes to mind – and have told Malcolm to step aside from the fray. The old ways are the best ways.

    So we get boats, carbon tax, black holes… all stuff that used to work three years ago, and maybe even six years ago back in 2010, but which are now terribly dated and old-hat. I think the punters know that the time’s over for slogans and scare campaigns. Something has to be done, soon, and the Liberals, having told us they were “ready to govern” in 2013 have muffed it, dropped the ball.

    They’d like us to think that there’s been a sort of election in-between 2013 and now: the one where Tony Abbott was voted out and Malcolm Turnbull was voted in. Two governments… the Abbott and the Turnbull.

    Abbott: BOO!

    Turnbull: YAY!

    But really what we’re seeing is a Coalition government that refused to govern. They got even. They vilified. They hectored, heckled and sloganized everything. They bragged and boasted. They insulted and intimidated. Everything except governed.

    They told us they had the experience, the steady hands on the tiller, the innate knowledge of how things worked that only Tories have. They had respect for our institutions, because they invented those very institutions.

    What did we get? We got a suborned Governor-General, the Budget timetable nobbled so they could get a couple of weeks’ electoral advantage. They changed the voting laws. The refused to turn up to Senate Committees. They even tried to overturn 80 years of history by resetting the clock to the 1940s so that the States could collect their own income tax. They did what they said only Labor does: they axed a sitting, first-term PM. They did it in record time, too, much faster than Labor had ever dared… under 2 years.

    The deposed PM is up in the hills, fighting a guerilla war. Every now and again he raids a village and takes some hostages and replenishes his supplies. The media report this faithfully and lasciviously, because they are out of their depth on policy. They love a stoush, play-by-play, ball-by-ball.

    The Budget tonight will do not much more than count coup on the various issues that need serious attention. Check boxes will be ticked-off and initialed. There’ll be a little something for everyone, but not enough for anyone. The pundits will dutifully write this up as “broad-based” and “holistic”, a Budget for all seasons. But it won’t stick. The paper they’re using to cover the cracks is too thin.

    Basically the Liberals have squandered three years in office and done nothing. The nation has gone backwards, not forwards. Turnbull, to be fair, has been saddled with a bunch of Howard and Abbott leftovers, still crowing about their experience and gravitas, but looking more like propped-up cadavers, left out in the sun to mummify, than human beings. Joe Hockey, with the true real estate agent’s sense of when to buy and sell, sold out (literally) and moved to the other tit, this time in Washington. For someone who railed so much against the entitlement mentality, Joe sure did well sucking the life’s blood from the national coffers. And he’s still at it!

    The Libs think the voters haven’t noticed. They still think that boats, and carbon tax and black holes work as well as they always did. But these issues are no more than dusted-off corflutes that Tony Nutt found lying around under the house. He has a very meager hand to play with. It’ going to have to involve a masterpiece of bluffing for him to win the pot for Turnbull with it.

    The Budget will fail, like all their other Budgets have failed. The Treasurer is a DIY type, an amateur, all bluff and thunder, but no expertise. He made his mark monstering refugees who couldn’t fight back. But he can’t monster the Australian people. He thinks he’s popular, but he’s only welcome in Ray Hadley’s studio. Everywhere else he’s a joke, a national embarrassment, along with Barnarby Joyce.

    Turnbull’s soldiers might look impressive, but they have no combat skills. The fancy uniforms and exalted titles can’t help them in this one. And Turnbull is no leader.

    It’s a train wreck waiting to happen. The best thing to do is look the other way, step back and try to make sure that none of the wreckage hits us in the face.

  32. All Grattan could say yesterday was “presumably because the original costing did not make sufficient provision for falling smoking rates”. So Cormann didn’t want to leak the actual reason for the difference in the estimates? Why would anyone assume that the new estimate of smoking rates must be more accurate without seeing the details? Presumably, if the new estimate is correct and smoking rates fall even more then there will also be a huge cost saving in healthcare. Sounds like a win, win, win situation.

  33. BB

    Your analysis is spot on. Although I feel that the spruikers are working overtime to suggest somehow that this budget is going to deliver the tax reform business so desperately wants. Having business onside will help this pathetic mob no end

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